538: Who won the December debate? My take - all candidates moved ahead

[crazytown]

Last edited Fri Dec 20, 2019, 08:24 PM - Edit history (1)

on the metric that matters - being considered as a nominee, with Biden consolidating his dominance (54%), and Klobuchar gaining most (+6%) from a low base.


Who won the Wine Cave exchange? A: (at this instant) Warren, who improved her net favorables, while Buttigieg (alone), went backwards.

Chance of beating Trump? Biden 66.6%, 2nd. Sanders 56.8%, most improved, Klobuchar.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-debate-december-poll/

[W_HAMILTON]

1. Thanks for posting this.

I always like to see these 538 charts after the debate, but I don't frequent that website enough to know where to find them.

[The Valley Below]

2. Day after results mean nothing.

Look a few weeks out and see what happens in the polls.

See how attacks on fellow Democrats as led some to short-term "bumps" followed by hard crashes.

[crazytown]

3. A poll, by definition, is a snapshot.

[The Valley Below]

4. And snapshots are often blurry.

I'm certain we will see similar blowback against attacks that we saw in earlier debates.

Democratic votes don't want this stuff. Clearly.

Watch the polls and see.

[crazytown]

5. On the basis of past polls, gains dissipate

but damage sticks. Biden never recovered the heights after June, Harris after July or Warren after October.

[The Valley Below]

9. Biden has been the front runner since he announced.

Meanwhile those who've attacked fellow Democrats are gone from the race (or nearly so).

It's bad politics and bad for the party's chances for success. Democratic voters will punish this behavior.

There is no mood for it.

[crazytown]

10. "There is no mood for it"

except if it is from the campaign you favor.

[The Valley Below]

12. No. The party faithful don't want personal attacks from any camp.

Fights on policy are fine. That's why we have a race.

But cheap smears will cost candidates support. For sure!

[blm]

6. Interesting. The consistent spin I've observed is

pretty much directed against one particular candidate, even though, over the course of the debates that candidate was the least aggressive towards the other candidates.

[The Valley Below]

8. Only in your mind.

I'm sure the American public say it otherwise.

Dumb move.

[blm]

16. OK. Sure, sure.

Your expert analysis is in high demand on other threads, too. You may have missed some of the ones where some of the American public agreed with Warren AND Klobuchar during the “dumb move” exchanges.

Better go set them straight.

[The Valley Below]

17. Watch and see.

[ritapria]

7. Post Debate Polling Results

It appears that Klobuchar will get at least a 2% bounce in the post debate national polls ….Bernie AND Biden a 0.5 - 1.0% gain ... Debates don't move the numbers very much ….Hillary crushed Trump in post debate polling and it didn't move the numbers ...Those debates were seen by a vastly larger number of people than these primary debates

[judeling]

14. Yes, that looks about right.

But if Klobuchar gets that 2-3% national bump, she will start to overtake Bloomberg is several of them if that happens it will be news.

I'm more interested in what will happen with Buttigieg and Warren. That wine cave played off and on all day and neither comes of great in the clips.

[crazytown]

15. FWIW, I am VERY interested in Klobuchar overtaking Bloomberg

and wish her the best of luck in IA.

[judeling]

11. This is not strickly a Poll

It is a before and after from the Same group. As such it is a direct measure of change. Which is why Biden having a good night didn't really exceed expectations as he is sitting at the top of the field that is good.

But in terms of what this panel measures. Klobuchar had a very good night, and Buttigieg a slightly disappointing one.