Buttigieg blocking all roads to the nomination

[left-of-center2012]

Democrats’ latest presidential debate revealed a new reality candidates face just over six weeks before the Iowa caucuses: All roads to the nomination run directly through Pete Buttigieg.

Buttigieg’s transformation into a piñata did not come simply because he has risen in polls of Iowa and New Hampshire. His position is unique because the imperative to stamp him out is so wide-ranging. Joe Biden occupies the party’s moderate lane, and Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren appeal to progressives, but Buttigieg is threatening to all of them with his ideologically moderate platform but, demographically, progressive profile: young, gay and — as he will remind you repeatedly — not of Washington.

The South Bend, Ind., mayor doesn’t command much attention in national polls. But he’s running first in recent surveys of the first caucus state of Iowa and in second place in the first primary state of New Hampshire, according to the most recent Real Clear Politics average.

Sanders and Warren, both far ahead of Buttigieg nationally yet locked in a tight battle with him in Iowa, are increasingly using Buttigieg as a foil. Buttigieg went on to defend his fundraising, saying that while “lots of our competitors attacked the way we’re building this campaign … what they are failing to recognize is that we’re building a formidable organization. One that can take on Donald Trump and his allies — and win.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/20/buttigieg-2020-linchpin-088801

[empedocles]

1. Pete in way of EW, BS - not JB

[Demsrule86]

7. JB is not in danger from Buttigieg because Biden doesn't need to win Iowa...and it will be close

IMHO...Warren needs a clear win or she will not be the nominee...as for Sanders...I think it will hurt him too.

[evertonfc]

3. Pete in the way

of three old white people. Lol... ( by the way, I support Biden)

[boomer_wv]

4. bad take.

If anything, Pete looks to be on the decline again.

[pandr32]

5. He is surprising me.

People will say there is no way he will win support from many Christian groups because he is gay, but those people were not in play anyway. They are firmly against women's right to choose and will never vote for a pro-choice candidate.
More moderate Christians might find Buttigieg appealing. Most people know someone who is gay and won't be too concerned about it.
Sometimes we find a dark horse candidate begins to stretch out and take the race. This is why I am still undecided.

[crazytown]

6. Biden was a "pinata" assailed for gaffes,

then Warren on M4A funding. What those episodes show is that Biden has superior teflon. This is worth knowing, it's how the primary contest works.

[Sloumeau]

8. Mayor Pete Buttigieg has little chance of winning the nomination because of...

his incredibly weak support among African Americans. He may do well in White strongholds like Iowa and New Hampshire, but odds are that he will get buried in Nevada, South Carolina, and on Super Tuesday. Biden will do fine even if he does not win Iowa or New Hampshire. Warren and Klobuchar need to elevate themselves, and they have every good reason to believe that Buttigieg took voters from Warren and from Harris as he rose in the polls. I am sure that they both figure that if voters flee Pete, they could go to either Warren or Klobuchar. Thus, since every voter Mayor Pete loses is a potential Warren or Klobuchar pickup, it makes sense that they went after him. Bernie did not go after Mayor Pete because a weaker Warren, due to Mayor Pete taking votes from her, helped move Bernie into a pretty solid second place.

Biden is also reluctant to attack Mayor Pete because for a while there, Warren was Biden's biggest threat, and Buttigieg appears to have gotten votes from her. For Biden, ideally, he would win Iowa and New Hampshire, but if he can't win, the next best thing would be for Mayor Pete to win, denying those wins to both Sanders or Warren. Since Biden probably figures Mayor Pete will flame out after New Hampshire, Biden can afford to lose two states to Mayor Pete, since he probably figures Buttigieg won't be able to do much with them after New Hampshire.

[TexasBushwhacker]

13. Pete being DOA with AAs makes him DOA for me

Far too many African Americans stayed home in 2016. We cannot let that happen again. Pete would make a fine VP or cabinet member, but I don't see him beating Trump.

And I'm an old white lady.

[Sloumeau]

14. I'm an older White Guy, and I think the same way.

If you cannot get the African Americans to vote for you, how are we going to beat Trump? Also, Amy is probably my number 2 pick for the nomination. She's awesome.

[cwydro]

18. Anybody who won't vote for a Dem against the shitstain is dead to me.

How stupid does someone have to be to stay home in the next election?

[TexasBushwhacker]

19. It happened last time

African American voters went down about 8%.

[cwydro]

20. I know, and I find that mind blowing.

However, I could maybe see they didn’t realize how bad he’d be, but this time around...there’s simply no excuse.

[BootinUp]

9. And Pete seems to excel at the fencing. Nt

[The Valley Below]

10. I like Pete. He adds a fresh voice to the party that bodes well for the future.

Nice to see a new generation of liberal Democrats emerge.

[stopdiggin]

11. the premise (again) is that IA is uniquely important

and pivotal. I think this is a misreading. With the exception of a possible Warren fade (already taking place), I don't think IA/NH changes the dynamic of the race on any level. The top tier is still the top tier (with little shuffling in ranking), and all the other campaigns are nowhere.

[Sloumeau]

15. I believe that you are correct.

In this 2020 Democratic nominating race in particular, I believe that Iowa and NH are less important than they normally are. That is because I believe that both Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders have a lot of extremely loyal supporters who aren't going anywhere if neither of them wins in Iowa or NH. I think that of the seven who were in the December Debate, most if not all will make it until Super Tuesday. By then, 18 states will have voted and the race will be pretty clear. If you are not in the top two by then, Odds are you will not be the nominee.

[judeling]

12. As of the moment and mainly to Warren and Klobuchar

But he had already flattened and probably started to slide a bit.
First there are actually three lanes going in the same direction. The Moderate lane that Biden is the head of, The progressive lane with Bernie, and the not Bernie or Biden lane. But the road ahead was going to narrow to Two lanes soon enough. On Super Tuesday if not before.

All of the movement we have seen so far has been in the NOT lane and the hope was that was when the choice came a Warren could bring enough moderates to dominate the progressive lane or a Buttigieg could do that in the moderate lane with progressives.
Up until now Biden and Sanders were both happy with the dynamic. And with Wine Cave they remain so. So the last debate made prefect sense in that Klobuchar and Warren went after Buttigieg.

Klobuchar must be pleased at how that all turned out, finally. She has been positioning herself to be the Biden alternative all along. First in September she lead the support of Biden (with Pete tagging along) and cleared the field in that lane to her and Pete. Then in October she went after Warren and again Pete followed, that enhance Warren's slide. In November she went after Pete obliquely with a gender separation and basically stopped his momentum. And now we will see but looks to be the main beneficiary of Wine Cave.

[Sloumeau]

16. It was always going to end up being only two lanes.

As you said, Biden leads the Moderates, followed by Klobuchar, and Sanders leads the Progressives followed by Warren. Mayor Pete is trying to be a third lane between the two, but after New Hampshire, with his low African American support, odds are Pete's hopes will fade away...along with that third lane he's trying to make.

Sanders' and Warren's best hope would be if one of those two dropped out, but I don't see that happening. Warren still remembers recently being right next to Biden, and Bernie is now in second place, so I expect both of them to hold on through at least Super Tuesday. By then, with 18 states done, the ranking should be pretty clear. I am so glad Klobuchar is still in it. She's awesome.

[booley]

17. Polls having Buttigieg losign to trump

Not to mention he has raised less money than Sanders who isn't' doing these large fundraisers.

Even if we ignore the ethics and the optics of endorsing big money in politics, the tactic itself doesn't seem to be working.