Sanders closing in on Biden. December Poll analysis

[booley]

To sum up, this will probably be between Sanders and Biden. (Probably no surprise there)

A separate observation I noticed...

People support sanders on his policies
People support Biden because they think he will beat trump.

This kind of disconnect is really dangerous in my opinion. It reminds me too much of 2016. Though it also shows a fundamental vulnerability for Biden in the primary. If that perception ever changes, I don't' see what else he has to run on.

[Cha]

1. Bull.. I support Joe Biden because he will be the

very Best for the job.. the best qualifications and the best experience.. and yeah he happens to be in the lead to beat trump.

And, I don't like BS for the job.

[Gothmog]

8. The video in the OP was not well done

I agree with you Cha

[booley]

15. And yet you couldnt be bothered to say how or why

So I can't really argue your point because I don't' see where you made one

In any case, I think the video is informative. In part because it includes the questions on the polls so we can understand why people answered as they did.

[NurseJackie]

42. Worse than a PowerPoint presentation from someone who...

... was just winging-it. Ugh. (The worst presenters were the ones who just clicked through the powerpoint slides and read them to the group. I mean, ANYONE could do that. Why bother? Just hand us the printout of the slide and we can read them ourselves.) It really had no depth or information. The "presenter" was just talking and scrolling and it seemed a bit rushed and aimless.

How's that?

[TexasTowelie]

10. +1

[booley]

14. Ok but... millions say that isnt' the reason they are voting for Biden.

Good on you that you think Biden will do a good ob.

I can't think of anything to support that belief off the top of my head. But clearly I am in favor for someone else.

But this isn't' about you or me. This is about what people overall think.

When asked they like Sanders policies more
This includes people who say they support Biden.

[totodeinhere]

26. When you say "bull" do you mean you don't beleive the poll or do you mean

you don't like the results of the poll? That's two different things. It's great if you support Joe Biden, but that poll does show Bernie gaining on him.

[emmaverybo]

30. +1000

[Hortensis]

2. No. Don't get carried away by the noisies promoted by pundits,

Republicans, Russia, and of course themselves. It's not that they don't matter, it's that they're very strongly outnumbered by the large mass of mainstream Democrats and left-leaners. They aren't radical in nature or desire. And not all know that or why the Republicans and Putin and his fellow criminal oligarchs want us to nominate Sanders, but many do.

If you doubt that, look at the messages of the midterms. Radicals did very poorly, and Sanders can't give socialism away -- even to most of his own followers! So it shouldn't be surprising that trying to sell mainstream Democratic and capitalist policies wrapped up as "revolutionary socialist" dissension in the primaries also has relatively few takers, even temporarily. And at that, a large number of those checking the box for Sanders are currently expecting to vote for Biden in the GE and just want to indicate a wish for firm action (controlling, NOT destroying, capitalism).

[redstateblues]

3. Policies don't win elections. Never have.

Like it or not it’s more about trust, likability and electability. Bernie is in short supply of the two latter.

[booley]

16. I think FDR would disagree

And if policies don't' matter why even propose them?

Though maybe you should look at the polls again.

Bernie is MORE trusted on these issues than Biden is.

Bernie Sanders is among if the most liked politician in America today.

That just leaves electability. Which may not be as strong for Biden as you would assume. To me, it seems more like trying to create a self-fulfilling prophecy. (Bien is electable because he's electable). The moment that perception changes, Biden has a problem.

To paraphrase Warren, why do we run on the things we can't or won't do?

[redstateblues]

23. Obama did not win two terms on policy promises

Bernie’s current numbers are a shadow of his numbers last time around. This country will not elect a Democratic Socialist in 2020. For starters MFA is a General Election loser.

[Joe941]

43. The numbers are spread between many more candidates.

I'd argue his numbers are more impressive than 2016.

[emmaverybo]

31. I firmly agree.

[Uncle Joe]

4. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread booley.

[beastie boy]

5. December poll analysis shows that Sanders gained two points on Biden. he is still behind by 8.5%.

Sanders was behind Biden by 8.2% on Nov. 15, by 9.9% on November 1, by 9.6% on October 1, and 6.3% on April 25, 2019.

You call this closing in? At the very least, you should put the question mark back in your header, just like it appears in the video you linked to.

[TexasTowelie]

11. +1

[George II]

6. It simply isn't happening....

Sanders hasn't been above 20% since April, Biden hasn't dipped below 25% ever.

[dem4decades]

7. Biden was a Democrat last year, is this year and next year.

Bernie picks and chooses when he's a Democrat. Just like Joe, i'm a Democrat everyday of every year. It's Joe for me.

[TexasTowelie]

12. +1

[booley]

20. Personally I dislike the whole "Politics is a sport" thing

I think it hurts the Democrats and the country as a whole.

But ok.
You do you.

[LongtimeAZDem]

41. It's not sport; it's having the integrity to stand by the party, instead of attacking it for decades

and then "joining" it simply for political gain.

[Gothmog]

9. CBS News poll: Biden is first choice for 50% of black Democrats in Super Tuesday states

Link to tweet

[booley]

18. Dosnt relly address the point

Since the point is Bidens' lead is predicated on the perception he will beat Trump. There's no reason to think Black Democrats are any more immune to that anyone else.

We can always point to all sorts of Demographic groups various Candidates appeal to more

Sanders, for instance, is extremely popular among Young Latinos and the young in general.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/08/politics/bernie-sanders-young-latino-voters/index.html

Will that matter in the general election? Hard to say. The Black vote didn't' put Hillary Clinton in the White House. As others have pointed out, getting young people to vote is challenging.

But Biden has a vulnerability that Sanders does not.

[Amimnoch]

13. Don't support Sanders because I don't trust Sanders.

The fact that in 2016 Russia supported his run just as much as they supported Trumps per the Mueller report makes me skeptical.

In 2020, we are not likely to win a Senate Majority, but 2022 is a different matter. I trust every single other candidate we have to sign off on any legislation that is hard fought for by the Democratic Party members in the House and Senate.. even if it is less than perfect. I don’t trust BS to do the same. His whole schtick are his purity tests.. would be disgusting to finally have a majority in both chambers and the POTUS and STILL not being able to get bills through because of a POTUS that won’t sign anything less than perfect.

Lastly, he also sounds too much like Trump. Sure his policy is different, but I’m sick of the angry asshole approach of populism politics. I’d rather a candidate that brings dignity, not anger to the office.

[booley]

21. Is that it?

Because it seemed that was more about Russia wanting to sow chaos more than Putin wanting Americans to have single-payer.

Maybe we should examine WHY he is more trusted (because like it or not, he is)

Sanders has been supporting and pushing the same policies for literally decades.
Sanders never needed to evolve on things like Gay Marriage of it segregation was bad.
Sanders has not' suddenly changed his position after some lobby group donated money to his campaign.
Sanders talks about issues that affect everyone's lives, especially those without a lot of power in our society.
Sanders genuinely believes in what he is saying.
Sander's policies are very popular.

I’m sick of the angry asshole approach of populism politics.

We will have to disagree. Sanders is angry at the system. He isn't angry at people. he has been incredibly civil to my observation, more than I have to be honest.

What you call being an angry asshole, I call passion and commitment.

I don't' want dignity" if it is just window dressing to pacify me.

[OldRed2450]

34. Ummm... He didn't change his positions on guns and immigration?

Look, Bernie has never been able to prove he can get any of his policies enacted. He is one of the least accomplished Senators we have. It's not is policies that is the issue. It's that he is not the one who can get it done. There is also the issue of the USA being the leader of the world. The world right now is without a leader. In my opinion, a Sanders presidency will only isolate the US from the rest of the world even more.

[totodeinhere]

27. Yes, strictly by the numbers our chance to take back the Senate looks better in 2022. But...

if we take the White House in 2020 then we will be the party in power in the 2022 midterm election. And historically, parties in power do poorly in midterm elections.

[judeling]

17. Closing not so much, challenging very possibly.

People always resort to national polls a big mistake. Right now you would have to say Bernie is I a great position to win Iowa and New Hampshire. Unless Warren recovers. In Iowa Sanders and Biden are tied and the vote will be split between Biden/Buttigieg and maybe Klobuchar and Sanders/Warren with Sanders likely to benefit more from the 15%. Some of the same dyna mic will play in NH where Sanders leads. So it is very likely that going into Nevada Sanders will have two wins and is very close to Biden with limited polling but seems to be making inroads out west.

The Race looks entirely different if Biden goes into SC losing 3 times and at least one other in the Moderate lane.

I'll wait until the next set of polls give some idea, But the January Debate looms very large right now.

[janterry]

19. This is fine by me!

as long as biden doesn't get the nod

[booley]

22. I don't disagree with your statement

[still_one]

32. As long "as biden doesn't get the nod"? and what will you do if he does? Propagate divisive

rhetoric against him?

[Gothmog]

24. This makes me smile

Link to tweet

[Hassin Bin Sober]

25. Slowly. Inch by inch. Step by step!

[Iliyah]

28. I remember when corporate media was saying that

Senator Warren was the front runner . . . .

Right now I see VP Biden moving forward . . .

Mayor Pete will probably regroup . . .

[PubliusEnigma]

29. Nope. Not even close. Do we really have to do this again?

[redstateblues]

33. The old "if I believe it, it must be true"

[PubliusEnigma]

35. It's called experience. You'll see what I mean, eventually.

[MineralMan]

36. "People support Biden because they think he will beat trump."

What people? Where do you get the information to make this statement? I think it is incorrect and a superficial analysis of why people support Joe Biden.

I am a person. I support Biden because he is the best qualified and has the long experience needed to lead Congress into passing bills that will move this country forward. He also has the foreign policy experience needed to restore trust in the United States on a global basis. He will be an effective leader and will work both to correct Trump's damage and move the country in progressive directions.

Bernie Sanders has not had much luck getting his proposals through Congress. His international relations experience is zilch, frankly. Due to those two factors, I do not see him as a potentially successful President, in terms of correcting the damage Trump has done and moving the nation in a progressive direction. While Sanders is a progressive, he is not a leader, in my opinion.

So, no, it is not just that Biden can defeat Trump, although he can. It is what he will accomplish after being elected that leads me to support him.

[LongtimeAZDem]

38. Well said +1

[MineralMan]

39. You're too kind.

Bernie has avid fans. Biden has solid supporters. Biden wins.

[LongtimeAZDem]

37. LOL; sure he is

[MineralMan]

40. Exactly.

At this point, nothing is going to change very much until caucus and primary results start coming in. Minds will be made up and those lines are going to move. We're getting close to the actual beginning of the primary race. People are going to start making their decisions and marking ballots.

Until then, the chart is going to look a lot like it does right now.

[brooklynite]

44. I noticed you left off the question mark...

Could have happened to anyone.

[MineralMan]

45. Hmm...yes...

[Gothmog]

46. A recent CNN poll shows that former VP Joe Biden continues to lead

Link to tweet