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Undecided 48%
Joe Biden38%
Bernie Sanders14%

Tue Dec 24, 2019, 01:24 PM

 

State of the Battleground - December edition

Well, with the exception of Pennsylvania, ALL of our frontrunners are continuing to lose ground as the attacks on each other, instead of Trump ramps up. Biden overall still shows the strongest (and so remains in my signature), but do note, many of those light blues are BARELY there now. This is also the very first time any of our frontrunners maps show a loss vs Trump.

September edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287282316

October edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287299279

November edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287334724

Highlights: 4 new polls since the last update with updates in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, and Wisconsin. All 3 of our frontrunners have gained ground in Pennsylvania when matched vs Trump, but have suffered losses in Michigan, Arizona, and Wisconsin. These issues attacks on each other are having effect.

States in bold have updated results:
Florida - 29 electoral votes - No new poll since the November report.
https://www.unf.edu/uploadedFiles/aa/coas/porl/FLStatewideNationalPollwCross.pdf
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/FL110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: UNF +5 win, NYT +2 win.
Warren: UNF +3 win, NYT -4 loss.
Sanders: no UNF, NYT -1 loss.

Pennsylvania - 20 Electoral votes - New Morning Call Poll. MOE is 6.
https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/contentassets/pdf/academics/polisci/PA_Pres_Nov_2019__Report_%20(1).pdf
Biden: +9 win, up from +3 win in November NY Times/Siena poll Net gain of 6 points.
Warren: +5 win, up from -1 loss in November NY Times/Siena poll - Net gain of 6 points.
Sanders: +5 win, up from +1 win in November NY Times/Siena poll - net gain of 4 points.

Ohio - 18 electoral votes - Emerson from early October (was used in last months figures) - MoE 3.2
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/ohio-2020-statistical-dead-heat-with-biden-sanders-and-warren-in-democratic-primary
Biden: +6 win - same poll used in October report.
Warren: +4 win - same poll used in October report
Sanders: +6 win - same poll used in October report

Michigan - 16 Electoral votes - new NY Times/Siena poll - MOE 5.1
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/MI110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: +1 win, down from +12 win in the October Emerson poll - net loss of 11 points.
Warren: -5 loss, down from +8 win in the October Emerson poll - net loss of 13 points.
Sanders: +4 win, down from +12 win in the October Emerson poll - net loss of 8 points.

Arizona - 11 electoral votes - New OH Predictive Insights poll. MOE 3.9
https://www.dropbox.com/s/6rhlttfgxw5gk95/Presidental%20Report.pdf
Biden: -2 loss, down 2 points from the October Emerson report.
Warren: -6 loss, down 6 points from the October Emerson report.
Sanders: -13 loss, down 11 points from the October Emerson report.

Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes - New Marquette poll. MOE is 4.1.
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/WI110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: +1 win, down 3 points from the October NY Times/Siena poll.
Warren: -1 loss, down 1 point from the October NY Times/Siena poll.
Sanders: -2 loss, down 4 points from the October NY Times/Siena poll.

Based on these polls, these maps are how the election would look if the polls were election reality. As before, ties remain battleground color, win/loss within the MOE are colored light red/blue as "leans", and a win or loss outside the MOE is dark red/blue.

Joe Biden Map


Elizabeth Warren Map


Bernie Sanders Map

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Reply State of the Battleground - December edition (Original post)
Amimnoch Dec 2019 OP
Thekaspervote Dec 2019 #1
judeling Dec 2019 #2

Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Tue Dec 24, 2019, 02:32 PM

1. 325 Still a respectable number for Biden

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Tue Dec 24, 2019, 06:38 PM

2. Going into Iowa

 

We are at one of the most divisive times in the Nomination. All these maps look good right now.
You have to look all the way back to 2004 to form a comparison.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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