Will Gender Reemerge?

[judeling]

Watching the endo of the year wrap ups and projections of the future race, I cannot help remembering how this cycle started. There was at the start after the Women's March and the number of strong women elected in 2018 the thought that of course the nominee would be a woman.

As the summer went on you could feel that dynamic still there, but it is greatly diminished as the fall went on and the hopes invested in two candidates faded out to a large extent. But I would argue it is still there and may yet reshape the race.

But, we are now down to it and it is likely that only one of our female candidates will survive Iowa. It is of course possible that neither will but if one does that really could reshape the race. A Warren rebound or a Klobuchar surge reflected in the Iowa outcome could have a bigger impact then is currently expected.

The main connective tissue of the democratic coalition is female. And that can still come into play in ways that right now are hard to see.

No votes have been counted yet, and while the race looks static it is not and wont be until that event happens.

[paleotn]

1. The only thing I know....

is it's going to be an interesting ride and no one knows what's going to happen between now and nomination. There will be stuff no one saw coming and stuff we'll smack our heads about because we should have seen that coming.

[Hoyt]

2. Started primaries out hoping Harris or Klobuchar would pick up good support.

It’s really time for a woman, and I believe they’d do very well as Prez, for a lot of terms.

Will of course vote for her if nominee because she’s much better than any GOPer, but have issues with Warren compared to other Democratic candidates.

But, there’s still a lot of time for something to happen.

[ritapria]

3. The biggest question in Iowa

whether Klobuchar is going to make a late surge …..If so , who will she take the most votes from ……………. Kerry and . Edwards emerged from nowhere to finish 1st and second in 2004 ...On the Republican side in 2012 , Santorum went from 5% of the vote 4 weeks before Caucus Day to winning the contest with 25% of the vote - defeating Romney by a handful of votes …. People living in Iowa have a better perspective than I on whether Klobuchar will make a late charge ...I just don't know .

[judeling]

4. That is a Real question

The interplay of Warren, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar in the polls will really shape the race. None of those numbers seem in anyway secure.

If I had to guess I'd say Sanders has the Best chance of finishing first in Iowa, That will shake up the race but the shape will be determined by the second and third finishers who could easily be any of the other 4, the numbers are just that close really.

The next couple of weeks will tell the tale. But the fact that Warren is below 15% right now is telling.

[Sloumeau]

5. A few things to keep in mind.

I know a lot of people who are Joe Biden supporters. Every single one of them wants a woman to be President at least half the time. Every single one of them also wants a person of color to be President at least some of the time. However, what all of the Joe Biden fans that I know want more is for that sexist, racist, evil monster Donald Trump to be gone.

Every Biden supporter I know thinks that this idea is the most important, and they are supporting Biden because, in addition to them thinking he would do a good job, they think he has the best chance of getting rid of that orange monster. Virtually all of us voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, both in the general election and in the primary. Most of us really like and respect Amy Klobuchar. We have zero problem voting for a woman, and if Joe Biden were not running, most of us would probably be on Team Klobuchar right now.

I am 56 years old, and things have changed dramatically for women and people of color in our party. In the 2018 election, all of those women, including women of color, Muslims, and LGBTQ+ candidates would not have won without a whole lot of men and a whole lot of white people in the Democratic party pulling those levers. We didn't say, "Oh, I can't vote for a woman" or "Oh, I can't vote for someone Black or Hispanic". We said, "Oh, they are a Democrat? That is all that matters. Get me to the voting booth".

This may not be the race where a woman becomes President, but I can tell you this, if Biden wins the nomination, there is no way he won't chose a woman for VP. In fact, I can't see a woman not being on either the top or the bottom of a Democratic ticket ever again. EVER. Every Democrat I know wants that. A woman President is no longer a question of if. It's just a question of when, and millions of us men are going to make sure that that happens.

Merry Christmas, and Happy Holidays.

[Skidmore]

6. I don't know. However , the stasis

does present a moving target that Trump cannot focus on. He doesn't know who his opponent will be so it is hard to attack. He's even held fire lately on Joe Biden, which for me says that his impeachment defense isn't there.

[Amishman]

7. I hope not, cultural issues at the front drive R turnout

And don't help ours (as those motivated by it would be turning out for us anyway).

Economics, jobs/wages, and healthcare need to be the focus.

[ismnotwasm]

8. No

Not this time.

Gender and race and so often dismissed as irrelevant. It baffles me. For instance, of general voters, White women prefered Trump, Black women preferred Hillary. When we talk about gender, I think we have to realize how many white women aren't Democratic voters.

And why this is.

That doesn’t mean women don’t continue to enter politics in droves, they are, and they are winning. My nightmare scenario is the first woman President being a Republican. Fucking disgusting. Woman on the left, Feminists, woman of color did all the heavy lifting for women to get where they are today. Republican women just followed in the wake.

Right now the Black vote of either gender is going to Biden, young voters who tend to vote, or be politically active, seem to be going for Bernie Sanders, although Elizabeth Warren would suffice. I don’t have numbers, this is a general impression

At this point, realistically, Biden, barring something startling, is going to be our nominee. To be fair, I believe he is aware of the need for diversity in politics and his cabinet will reflect this should he win.

[judeling]

9. The Dynamic is changing.

To a large extent it was the movement of white women who gave us the House.
Indeed the welding of this movement may just give us long term electoral dominance for years to come, especially as the other demographics are moving.

[ismnotwasm]

10. That's true

And from what I’m seeing there’s a lot of up and coming women for whom “Intersectionality” is more a way of life than a word. This gives me hope.