A Reminder: Younger voters were crucial to 'The Obama Coalition'

[crazytown]

Voters 65 years and older

McCain 53%, Obama 45%
Romney 56%, Obama 44%
Trump 52% Clinton 45%

Voters 18 - 29 years.

Obama 66%, McCain 32%
Obama 60%, Romney 37%
Clinton 55%, Trump 36%

The fact that 65+ years older voters have the highest turnout rates is a very good reason to put an effort into keeping younger voters onside.

There was a recent Dem VP who alienated younger voters. He won the 65+ years vote and "lost" (courtesy of SCOTUS)

Voters 65 years and older
Bush 47% Gore 51%
Voters 18 - 24 years
Bush 47% Gore 47%

If Gore had won anything like the 55% of younger voters that Bill and Hillary did in 1996 and 2016 respectively, you could have put down the glasses, but I'm guessing 'the kids' were less than impressed with Tipper's Parental Advisory's on their CD's, the V-Chip in their TVs, the VPs amazing efforts to protect Decency and Copyright from the Internet, not to mention his 'Morals Campaigner' running mate.

Results as per : https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/

[ritapria]

1. Great Research on Young Voters

We need their votes - and their grassroots energy ...Obama and Bill Clinton attracted young voters

[lambchopp59]

2. I have made my soapbox position clear on this

Mobilizing the youth vote is absolutely essential in 2020, lest we otherwise repeat the "go with the boomer's moderate candidate" mistake of 2016.

[Thekaspervote]

18. Dems are a very moderate group. These eye popping numbers prove that

Last edited Sat Dec 28, 2019, 11:18 PM - Edit history (1)

Voters are fairly clear about what they would like from a Democrat. They prefer, by 82% to 11%, one who promises to find common ground over one who promises to fight for a progressive agenda; and they prefer a moderate over a liberal, 75% to 19%.


They support Biden over the president, 38% to 27%, but prefer the president to Warren, 37% to 20%. Sanders is in between, with the president leading him, 34% to 32%. This group voted for Trump by a smaller margin in 2016, 37% to 30%, with the rest casting ballots for minor candidates.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287336368#post2

[Hortensis]

28. Moderate above all as in sensible believers in DEMOCRACY.

Respect for the will of Democratic majorities is only "moderate" when compared with the rejection of extremists.

Democrats average "moderate" but actually span the spectrum from a moderately conservative minority to a mildly to very strongly liberal mainstream, but what we have in common is understanding and accepting that democracy requires sufficient collaboration and agreement to form majorities.

Extremists only care about what they want and adopt lies as needed to "justify" despising all else.

The biggest message of the midterms is that a large majority of voters understand the need to stabilize our nation and get our democracy once again functioning properly. Poll after poll, study after study, revealed we were strongly united in that desire even if perniciously divided by those who plan to benefit through the destruction of our current systems.

[Skittles]

3. typically younger folk don't vote as much as older folk.....but.....

I don't think today's youth has the luxury of that kind of procrastination - they need to VOTE, now - their future very much depends on voting against the fascism that repukes represent

[blm]

4. They engaged in 2018 and these newly registered voters

will be showing up by the millions in 2020. They are serious.

[Skittles]

5. I wish they had better choices

yes indeed

[Fiendish Thingy]

17. If Dems unlock the key to youth turnout, they will hold house senate and WH for a generation not

[Skittles]

19. I am very impressed with young folk today

I think they're doing the best they can with so many odds stacked against them - I believe in their ability to excel.

[Hoyt]

6. Smart younger voters shouldn't need special efforts after trump, but I'm

fine with doing so. How anyone could sit home after this, is difficult to fathom.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. There's plenty of demographics Democrats need to win.

It's not just young voters - it's also black voters and, unfortunately, it's also white voters.

Take Pennsylvania. In 2016, Hillary won 92% of black voters according to exit polls. They made up 10% of the state's voting population. Trump won 7%. In 2012, they made up 13% of the overall vote - and Obama won 93% to Romney's 6%. So, both Hillary and Trump did +1 better than Obama/Romney BUT blacks made up three-points fewer than they did four years earlier. And I know Obama being the black candidate likely meant a higher black turnout but ... what if it didn't? In 2004, blacks made up 13% of the overall votes in Pennsylvania - unchanged from 2012 AND 2008.

That three-point dip was significant, as significant as the dip in youth turnout.

Obama didn't just win the White House because of the youth vote. That certainly helped - but it was also because whites made up a smaller share of the vote in some states than they did in 2016.

Whites were 81% of the vote in Pennsylvania in 2016. In 2012, they were 78%.

What hurt Hillary was her performance among white voters.

Had she done as well as Obama did in 2012, she wins PA, MI and WI.

Just look:

In Wisconsin, Hillary lost the white vote 53-42 to Trump. In 2012, Obama lost the white vote to Romney 48-51. Trump did -2 worse than Romney there but more significantly, Hillary did -6 worse than Obama.

In Pennsylvania, Hillary lost the white vote 56-40 to Trump. In 2012, Obama lost 57-42. Not a sizable difference but still, Trump did -1 worse than Romney and Hillary -2 worse than Obama. Had Hillary lost the white vote +15 instead of +16, it's likely she ekes out a very narrow win - especially if black turnout is at 13% like it was in 2004, 2008 and 2012.

Bottom line: There's enough evidence to suggest had Hillary won this demographic over the other that she'd be president today. It's a fine line. It's not just on younger voters. The next candidate is going to have to cobble together a coalition that encompasses a lot of demographics.

Can Biden win younger voters?

Can Bernie or Elizabeth win over black voters to a level we likely need them to be at to win, say, Pennsylvania again?

It's a tough question. There isn't an Obama running this go around. That's the reality. The nominee is going to have their work cut out for them because they do have vulnerabilities that Obama seemed to lack.

[Demsrule86]

10. Biden has a great deal of appeal in the AA community...Hillary won the youth vote and still lost...I

posted the numbers on this thread so yes Biden can do it. Warren and Sanders can't win enough of the AA vote to win a general.

[Thekaspervote]

22. This!

[ms liberty]

27. What you're saying is that unless Biden is the nominee

AA will stay home. I think that's bullshit; I expect AA to show up for our nominee whoever it is - just like I expect every other democrat to do, regardless of their race, religion, creed, gender or primary preference. All of us know what is at stake here.

That kind of comment is unacceptable when it's made by other candidate's supporters, and it is unacceptable for anyone's.

[Demsrule86]

8. You need more than that...Hillary did win the youth vote in 16...with similar number to 12...

"While many expected the low favorability ratings of the two candidates and the divisiveness of this election year to keep young voters home, 2016 saw similar rates of young adult turnout as 2012. On election day, Hillary Clinton won the youth vote (55 percent) while Donald Trump only garnered the support of 37 percent of the millennial electorate. Comparatively, in 2012, young adults voted for Barack Obama over Mitt Romney by 60 percent to 37 percent."

What lost us the election was Trump eked out an electoral college win in the Mid West blue wall states...MI, WI and PA...none of whom have large numbers of young voters. Hillary won the popular vote by millions...And don't kid yourself...Trump could do it again if you run a candidate who can't win in the mid west which is very centrist...middle of the road kind of place. We could also lose the house which we won back with moderates should we run left with our choice of candidates. We live in a center left country...made even more so with gerrymandering and the electoral college.

[highplainsdem]

9. Then it's a good thing Biden does about as well with young voters in GE match-ups against Trump as

Warren and Sanders do.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287397244

That OP links to two major national GE polls, one showing Biden doing slightly better against Trump with that youngest-voter age group than Warren and Sanders do, one showing him not doing quite as well. But both polls show he has strong support from the youngest voters in a race against Trump.

So which candidate are you worrying will "alienate" young voters?

[crazytown]

13. I'm thinking more about Biden supporters

God help us if we have to depend on young people voting in order to beat Trump. Young people are so fickled and if we have to depend on young people or Trump wins, then we're screwed.

Then screw them. If they will only vote for someone who promises to give them free stuff, then they are selfish assholes. And if they actually end up voting for Trump, then they were never really going to vote for Sanders or Warren anyway.

[dansolo]

21. Typical - taking a post out of context

You are quoting me, but you intentionally ignored the title of my post. I was specifically referring to younger voters who CHOOSE to not vote in 2020. I wasn't referring to younger voters in general.

[crazytown]

23. You were talking about the younger voters

who would vote Bernie in the GE but not Biden. It's funny that I never hear the same venom for older voters who would vote for Biden in the GE but not Bernie. I have no sympathy for either groups. Vote Blue no matter who.

[Demsrule86]

30. Anyone who won't vote for the Democratic nominee is dead to me...young or old. Fuck them.

[dansolo]

36. Agreed

I only referred to younger voters, because the post I was responding to was specifically threatening that younger voters will choose to not vote if Bernie wasn't the nominee. I haven't seen a single post making the same claim regarding older voters and Biden.

[Demsrule86]

38. The younger ones are not reliable anyway...but we can hope enough of all voters want Trump gone.

[gab13by13]

26. Where have I heard,

"give them free stuff" before?

It ticks me off because Republicans gave out more free stuff to the rich and farmers and Big oil and Big Pharma than young poor people ever get. This free stuff argument is a right wing talking point, IMO.

[OldRed2450]

11. Why does everyone seem to think only Boomers and Millennials vote?

What I have noticed while talking to people is Biden is getting a big chunk of the GenX vote. Don't they matter or factor in here?

[MerryBlooms]

12. The youth vote are dogged relentlessly and every excuse

imaginable about why we don't need to court their vote. We need to work for every vote, even the kids who for some reason, are held in disdain by so many.

[Mariana]

15. It's weird, isn't it?

The majority of voters over 45 cast their ballots for Trump in 2016. They'll probably do it again in 2020. We don't see anyone holding that against the entire age group, do we? No, the disdain is reserved for young people only.

[MerryBlooms]

16. Same people who are on Medicare, but are against M4A...

[treestar]

37. oh geez, it is because the over 45s VOTED

they got to the polls. They didn't need inspiration.

[Mariana]

40. "They didn't need inspiration."

Whether they needed inspiration or not, they got it. The majority were very inspired to vote for Trump. They'll probably be similarly inspired again in 2020.

[demmiblue]

25. +1

[Demsrule86]

31. If they don't vote for any nominee in the general than they deserve disdain and a dash of contempt.

[highplainsdem]

14. Btw, re Al Gore -- he won the popular vote, and probably would have won the electoral college

if the Republican-dominated Supreme Court hadn't stopped the Florida recount.

[Thekaspervote]

20. Yes!!

[boomer_wv]

24. I am one

of the young voters who ushered Obama into office. I was 24 years old on election night 2008. I'm 35 now and plan to support one of the men I voted for that day. Joe Biden.

[totodeinhere]

29. Bernie does best among voters 18-25 according to most polls compared to all of our candidates.

If Biden gets the nomination he will need Bernie to help turn out his young supporters to vote for Biden in the general. But will Bernie be in a mood to do that considering all of the potshots that Biden's supporters are taking at him during the primary season?

[Demsrule86]

32. No he won't help the Democratic nominee IMO...and that is a damn shame...not a great legacy for

Sanders either...and I kind of object to blackmail by some Sanders supporters (not you, but you bring it up)...be nice or else? He won't be in a 'mood'...to help get rid of the most dangerous president ever?

[totodeinhere]

33. I for one would urge everyone to get behind our eventual nominee whether it

be Bernie or Joe or anyone else. But sometimes enthusiasm for our nominee can be a subjective thing and all I'm saying is that we should keep the best interests of the party in the general election in mind before we cast aspersions against any particular primary candidate. And of course Bernie has said on numerous occasions that he will support the nominee whoever it is. But human nature being what it is how enthusiastic will support from Bernie and his his followers be? Will young people vote for our nominee or will they tune out and in effect cast a default vote for Trump by not voting at all? I don't consider that a threat but rather a recognition of reality.

[Demsrule86]

34. We will see...Sen. Sanders did not support Hillary much in the general last time...I will support

any nominee period. That isn't what this post was about but about what Sanders will do...and I see signs already that are troubling.

[Demsrule86]

39. No he won't be in a mood to help just like the general in 16.

[calimary]

35. "... and the children shall lead..."