*NEW* Morning Consult Poll: Bernie still #1 in favorability ratings!!!

[floppyboo]

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

This poll, "which includes just voters who live in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina or Nevada" shows Bernie in such a strong 2nd, given the weight of Biden's clear elect-ability perception in SC.

Go Bernie!

[Gothmog]

1. Bernie Sanders Drops 7 Points In 2 Weeks With Early State Voters

Link to tweet

Support for Sanders has fallen seven points among Democratic primary voters in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire or South Carolina since our last survey conducted before the Democratic presidential debate on Dec. 19, as front-runner and former Vice President Joe Biden opens up a 16-point gap over the Vermont senator with those early-state voters.

– At a respective 32% and 21% in this latest tracking poll, the standings of Biden and Sanders are essentially unchanged among Democratic primary voters nationwide since early February.

– Buttigieg has risen from virtual obscurity in February to sit at 8% nationally, and while Warren has seen her support fall in recent months, her five-point increase since February places her as a top candidate.....

The negative view is that Sen. Sanders has a high floor for his support, but he also appears to have firm ceiling on how high he can go. Pete Buttigieg has taken away voters who might be looking for a non-Biden option, and Elizabeth Warren has taken voters on the left who in 2016 went to Sanders by default. Buttigieg Warren and are equally well funded and they will be in the primary for the long term. If Sanders doesn’t win early, there is a chance that he doesn’t win at all.

[R B Garr]

3. Wow, that's quite a drop!

[BannonsLiver]

17. I guess when you're down, you lean hard into the People's Choice Awards of polling.

And just like the People’s Choice Award, this metric is completely meaningless.

[NurseJackie]

19. That would look pretty on a mantel... I suppose.

Or is it this one?
?

[David__77]

2. Great!

...

[TexasTowelie]

4. I'm glad that you found something in that poll that makes you happy.

However, cheering Sanders 74% favorability rating compared to Biden's 72% favorability rating is amusing when the poll results show Biden leading the race by eleven points, 32% to 21%.

What I see in that poll is that if Warren leaves the race, then her 14% will most likely move to Sanders. Meanwhile, if Buttigieg and Bloomberg leave the race, then their supporters (14%) will most likely move to Biden. Adding in the support of other candidates when they withdraw, it looks like Biden is over 50% while Bernie tops out at 40%.

Keep looking for that silver lining in every cloud though.

[floppyboo]

6. Damn Straight!!! Never dropped from #1!!! WooHoo!!!

[TexasTowelie]

7. Except that he is #2

in the poll.

[Thekaspervote]

9. Even is warren leaves the race it won't save him

Sanders got 40% of Democratic Primary vote in '16, he's running half that this time. Even if he got 100% of Warren's support, he'd still be behind his '16 vote total. The hill.com

[TexasTowelie]

12. I look at it this way:

If the race narrows down to Biden and Sanders, then Biden will get the majority of the voters for Buttigieg, Booker, Bloomberg, Klobuchar and Steyer. Meanwhile, Sanders will get the Warren and Yang supporters. That puts Biden in the low to mid 50% range, while Sanders will be between 35% and 40%.

Buttigieg and Warren have the financial resources that they don't have to get out of the race if they don't want to and that may be enough to keep Biden from winning on the first ballot. However, Biden will do well with the superdelegates that the Sanders camp has berated over the years.

If Bernie doesn't do well in the early primary states, then he has no chance because he won't do well in March. Squeaking out wins in California won't counter the large losses that he will take in the South. It won't matter how many cheerleaders or how much money he has--the race will be done. The last big haul of delegates is in late April, but it also includes states where Biden should either win or at least do well (Pennsylvania, New York and Delaware).

I think that we will have an answer as to who the nominee will be after Super Tuesday, but it may stretch out until the end of March when 65% of the delegates will be decided. However, Bernie + Warren + Yang does not equal to a majority of Democrats. Biden will be the choice of the moderate Democrats who don't want to give him their votes initially.

[W_HAMILTON]

14. A lot of Warren supporters won't support Sanders in the primary.

I should know, given that I was a Warren supporter (as recently as a couple of weeks ago) that has since migrated to Biden and would never vote for Sanders in the primary.

[TexasTowelie]

18. I agree.

I over-simplified things by saying that all 14% of Warren's delegates will commit to Sanders, while the other 14% for the other moderates will commit to Biden. I also doubt that Warren will ever endorse Sanders because that would likely cause her problems in future Senate elections for her and result in her being primaried. Bernie has burned too many bridges along the way. My apologies for lumping all of the Warren supporters as a group.

[thesquanderer]

13. re: "What I see...is that if Warren leaves the race, then her 14% will most likely move to Sanders."

No... The poll says that 32% of her supporters move to Sanders (which means Sanders goes up by about 4-5 points).

The next biggest "second choice" candidate for Warren voters is Biden, who would get 22% of them (which would increase his numbers by 3 points).

Then 11% of them go to Buttigieg.

The remaining 35% are probably mostly up for grabs.

re:

if Buttigieg and Bloomberg leave the race, then their supporters (14%) will most likely move to Biden

Similarly, only about 25% of Buttigieg supporters currently say they would go to Biden, and 33% of Bloomberg's. But that's still a lot more than those saying they would go to Sanders.

re:

Adding in the support of other candidates when they withdraw, it looks like Biden is over 50% while Bernie tops out at 40%.

Even if those figures are right, it's not that simple. Like the electoral college, WHERE the votes are also matters. One could theoretically have fewer votes (nationally) yet still end up with more delegates.

[TexasTowelie]

16. I gave an overly-simplified version for brevity.

I don't expect all of Warren's supporters to switch to Bernie because Warren has a lot of supporters that voted for Hillary Clinton and who will never consider Sanders as an option.

I expect Biden to come out of Super Tuesday with a lead and it will likely be over 100 delegates. Biden will increase his lead since March is loaded with southern primary states where Buttigieg, Sanders and Warren do not have very strong bases for support. 65% of the delegates will be selected by the end of March so it will be difficult to make up any margins in the remaining primaries so the most plausible way to get additional delegates will be for other candidates to drop out and for them to endorse a different candidate.

Whether Biden reaches the threshold to win the nomination outright on the first ballot is still questionable, but I don't see Bernie winning the nomination under any circumstances.

Is that better?

[thesquanderer]

20. It was just the math.

e.g. you said "if Warren leaves the race, then her 14% will most likely move to Sanders" but the very poll we're talking about says that only 32% of her 14% say they'd go to Bernie. That's a big difference. Brevity is one thing, but the numbers should be in the ballpark. I thought maybe you just didn't scroll down far enough to see them on the poll page.

the most plausible way to get additional delegates will be for other candidates to drop out and for them to endorse a different candidate

That would certainly help, but if I were a candidate, I wouldn't count on that. Often, when people drop out, they don't endorse anyone; and even if they do, you can't assume all their supporters will follow.

[TexasTowelie]

22. You're correct.

I will put in the caveat that I didn't hover over any of the candidates images in the section for "Second Choices" which provided some information as to who else voters would move onto if they withdrew. Based upon those responses it would look more favorable to Biden than my quick lumping of all 14% shifting from Warren to Sanders.

I do agree with your statement after what you quoted from me. None of the candidates should count on another candidate to drop out and steer all of their supporters in their direction. I also don't believe that Warren will endorse Sanders if she withdraws. She has already demonstrated her wisdom in that regard.

[George II]

5. Favorability doesn't win elections. If it did Taylor Swift would be president.

[floppyboo]

8. HaHaHa! TV ratings are so not in Bernie's playbook!

btw - Bernie's 'this land is your land' is still just a cult classic - but just you wait!!!

[boomer_wv]

10. So you're touting a poll that shows...

Early voters like Bernie, but are deciding they don't want to vote for him.

I don't think I'd be bringing this one up if I were a supporter of his.

[Gothmog]

11. This poll is not good for sanders

Link to tweet

[LanternWaste]

15. "We're number two! We're number two!"

Has a great ring to it and it certainly looks good on a t-shirt (choose the font carefully, though). But... it means worth less than a cup of coffee after June.

[boomer_wv]

21. An slipping!!!

Hurrah!

[Gothmog]

23. @BernieSanders ⁩ is at 10% with Black voters

Link to tweet