Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumCNN sponsored the DMR/Selzer poll. How did they report it?
Last edited Sat Jan 11, 2020, 08:09 AM - Edit history (2)
The Des MoniesRegister led with Bernie Sanders leads the Iowa Poll for the first time, just weeks before the Iowa caucuses
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2019/08/30/iowa-caucus-how-democratic-republican-caucuses-work-differences-presidential-preferences-primary/2164118001/
Not so CNN.
Iowa poll shows a tight four-way race in final weeks before the Democratic caucuses
(CNN)Iowa's likely caucusgoers are closely divided between four top candidates just weeks out from the Democratic caucuses, a new CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll shows.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/10/politics/iowa-poll-democrats-2020/index.html
Although they noted the numbers, CNN managed to get through their entire piece without reporting that Sanders was in the lead: "Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is on the rise".
Compare that with November.
Pete Buttigieg surges to first place in Iowa, new poll shows
There is a new Democratic front-runner in Iowa, and his name is Pete Buttigieg.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/16/politics/iowa-poll-cnn-pete-buttigieg/index.html
CNN managed to dig up some nice things to say about Pete. Losing 9 points, more than a third his supporters, ain't nice but
Even with those shifts, Buttigieg remains well-positioned in the poll. Sixty percent say they are supporting or considering his candidacy, and he remains among the best liked candidates in the field -- 68% have a favorable view, second only to Warren's 70% favorability rating.
And some bad news for Warren
For Biden and Warren, support is roughly even vs. November (Biden holds at 15%, Warren stands at 17% support vs. 16%). For Warren, though, the share who say she is their second choice or who are considering her has declined. Overall, 59% say they are either supporting or considering Warren, down from a high of 71% in September and 66% in November.
Good news for Sanders, is prefaced by a reference to his "core supporters"
Sanders' support has increased 5 points amid a boost from core supporters since a November CNN/Des Moines Register poll. Among liberals, support for Sanders is up 8 points, and he's climbed 9 points among those under age 35.
You might not guess that Sanders' support had risen across the board. Indeed, looking at the featured graphic, you might think Bernie had got some bad news.
Biden looks hopeful though. No reason for concern about flirting with 15%.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Sherman A1
(38,958 posts)and is in need of the ongoing "horse race" narrative. Whatever they report will be filled with dramatic background music, a table full of talking heads discussing who's up, who's down, will this happen, but perhaps that will happen if "X" falls into place and on and on and on. Then they will break for a zillion ads for drugs we never knew we needed.
Rinse and repeat.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Hav
(5,969 posts)when it's a statistical tie between four candidates because it would be statistically ignorant to do otherwise. Pete was outside the margin of error, if I remember correctly, and the lead was definitely high enough to warrant that headline.
I have more trust in outlets who don't talk about leads with 1-2% differences in the results. Those who treat these kind of differences as meaningful rather show a lack of understanding of polls.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
True Blue American
(17,984 posts)Of these constant breathless polls that call a few people and claim it is fact.
I admired Steve Kornacki when he came on. Now, he has become a breathless huckster. And CNN rushed to imitate him.
Now cable news is ranting about a singer I never heard of and a fitness instructor. In between constant pictures of Trump. That was 5 minutes. I now have my local news giving a weather report for my area.
But have read 5 books this week! So that is good.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
empedocles
(15,751 posts). . . and the zealots who go nuts over them.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
True Blue American
(17,984 posts)When they come on.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
crazytown
(7,277 posts)and few still as highly regarded as Selzer. I would not dismiss it as a breathless poll that call a few people.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
True Blue American
(17,984 posts)Just the way I do all the other asinine polls. Just because you like it does not mean I do.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
crazytown
(7,277 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
True Blue American
(17,984 posts)I worked the polls for years. Not likely they would lie.
Online and phone polls just reach a small segment.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BeyondGeography
(39,369 posts)He just shifted below the candidate he was leading by nine points, who is now somehow in worse shape than he.
Ok.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
crazytown
(7,277 posts)but I'd call that 'shift' Big Structural Change
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
empedocles
(15,751 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
gab13by13
(21,304 posts)I ignore them, even when they say something I agree with.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)That said, seems like we are a nation of polling which purpose is to control how we as Americans are thinking, approving and favoring.
My opinion, we are a herd of cattle.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
True Blue American
(17,984 posts)I just moved out of the herd! 5 minutes of blather from cable sent me to the remote.
Did Nancy wait too long?
Bernie won the last poll!
Etc.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NYMinute
(3,256 posts)A lead is not a lead unless it is beyond the margin of error. DMR jumped the gun with a sensational headline.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TwilightZone
(25,464 posts)If a race is within the margin of error, it's a statistical tie, not a lead.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
disndat
(1,887 posts)is probably pouring money into Sanders campaign. They are so scared of Biden.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Uncle Joe
(58,349 posts)they don't mention the candidates by name anymore it's just "the leading Democrats" in previous debates they sounded off each candidate by name despite there being more of them to mention.
Thanks for the thread crazytown.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
highplainsdem
(48,968 posts)rise, and gives the numbers for the top candidates.
I think that's perfectly adequate, honest, ethical reporting.
The top 4 candidates are in a narrow 5-point range -- the narrowest range for those top 4 candidates that the poll has found all year.
And Sanders has the lowest support of any of the 4 front-runners in the other Register/CNN/Selzer polls this year -- only 20%, compared to 25% for Buttigieg, 24% for Biden, and 22% for Warren, when each of them led.
It IS a tight 4-way race. Much more so than when Buttigeg was at 25%.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to highplainsdem (Reply #20)
crazytown This message was self-deleted by its author.
brooklynite
(94,502 posts)Sanders getting half the support he had in 2016.
Anything factually wrong?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden