HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Retired » Retired Forums » Democratic Primaries (Forum) » Siena/NYT Poll just below...
Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Sat Jan 25, 2020, 05:00 PM

 

Siena/NYT Poll just below the surface

With this poll it now looks like Bernie is going to win Iowa. The race will shift, and the order of finish will tell us how.

But if you look into the second choice crosstabs there are some clues.
First Bernie's second choice from Warren has dropped from 64% to 44%. That seems to show that the consolidation of the progressive wing will be a lot less robust then people are assuming.

Klobuchar has now overtaken Buttigieg in second choice. When you see that Buttigieg support is highly concentrated and that his second choice support is very weak there, It appears he will not be able to maximize those wins. That indicates he is likely to underperform his polls.

Warren and Klobuchar bot overperform in second choice. Both of their second choice is higher then their first that is not true of the other three. That indicates that both will overperform.

If I had to guess right now it would be Bernie, Biden, Warren, Buttigieg and Klobuchar. This will actually give Biden a good shot at NH.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

3 replies, 800 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 3 replies Author Time Post
Reply Siena/NYT Poll just below the surface (Original post)
judeling Jan 2020 OP
loveboy Jan 2020 #1
judeling Jan 2020 #2
loveboy Jan 2020 #3

Response to judeling (Original post)

Sat Jan 25, 2020, 05:05 PM

1. Quite odd

 

I donít follow the logic, Bernie wins Iowa where is was underdog, then he turns around and loses NH where he is favorite? Seems unusual.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to loveboy (Reply #1)

Sat Jan 25, 2020, 06:00 PM

2. It seems simple to me.

 

With Warren still in the top 3 his chances of additional consolidation are diminished. Meanwhile Buttigieg and Klobuchar will take hits and the moderate lane will consolidate more. Klobuchar may even drop out depending on her finish. AS I said Clues. The order of finish will play a big part. What I see right now is Buttigieg underperforming and Warren overperforming in Iowa that will drive the narrative. That will depress Buttigieg's NH vote and increase Warren's that actually leave Biden in a good place.
If Klobuchar overperforms even more then I expect that will hurt Biden and probably Buttigieg and Warren and put Sanders in a very good place.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to judeling (Reply #2)

Sat Jan 25, 2020, 06:08 PM

3. Ok, yes that explains more

 

Thx.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread