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Undecided 48%
Joe Biden38%
Bernie Sanders14%

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 06:40 AM

 

My pre-Iowa prediction.. it will be candidate Sanders, but President Trump.

Yeah yeah yeah, I know, but it's a prediction only. One that I'll bookmark, and look back on later in the hope that I can look back and laugh at how wrong I was.

I do think Bernie is going to be a front runner coming out of the early states. A pretty strong one.

Super Tuesday would have been Bidens chance to come back strong, but while the field of candidates that have been running (including Biden) have been focusing on those early states, Bloomberg has been focusing almost 100% on the Super Tuesday states.

Bloomberg is not going to detract from Bernies Support base, he will detract from Biden's.

The exception I see is if Warren stays in, Buttigieg and Klobuchar drop out well before Super Tuesday.

If the primary prediction is right, then a candidate Sanders will lose the GE. Of the swing states that will decide, I see Michigan and Wisconsin being very within his taking, but Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Arizona are most likely going to end up going to Trump again. I also think there's a good chance that the Democratic Party leaning state of Virginia could very well swing Trump, and the 2x Republican leaning potential swing states of North Carolina and Georgia are off the table.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Reply My pre-Iowa prediction.. it will be candidate Sanders, but President Trump. (Original post)
Amimnoch Jan 28 OP
Demsrule86 Jan 28 #1
Pachamama Jan 28 #3
Mike Nelson Jan 28 #2
Demsrule86 Jan 28 #4
RandiFan1290 Jan 28 #6
NYMinute Jan 28 #9
Demsrule86 Jan 28 #11
nini Jan 28 #14
Nanjeanne Jan 28 #31
Hassin Bin Sober Jan 28 #43
calguy Jan 28 #17
RandiFan1290 Jan 28 #19
Nanjeanne Jan 28 #32
R B Garr Jan 28 #35
Amimnoch Jan 28 #5
Demsrule86 Jan 28 #13
RandiFan1290 Jan 28 #7
Amimnoch Jan 28 #8
NYMinute Jan 28 #10
nini Jan 28 #15
Demsrule86 Jan 28 #16
cab67 Jan 28 #24
Hortensis Jan 28 #12
calguy Jan 28 #21
Hortensis Jan 28 #25
safeinOhio Jan 28 #18
LS_Editor Jan 28 #20
IronLionZion Jan 28 #22
exoskeleton Jan 28 #23
Kaiserguy Jan 28 #27
gab13by13 Jan 28 #33
yaesu Jan 28 #26
mainstreetonce Jan 28 #28
gab13by13 Jan 28 #29
Amimnoch Jan 28 #37
Dream Girl Jan 28 #30
gab13by13 Jan 28 #34
Amimnoch Jan 28 #38
cab67 Jan 28 #39
Dream Girl Jan 28 #40
MarcA Jan 28 #41
LanternWaste Jan 28 #36
thesquanderer Jan 28 #42
Kentonio Jan 28 #44

Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 06:48 AM

1. Of course he loses the GE...but I still don't think he will be the nominee...all this Sander's

 

nonsense is just that nonsense...we have heard it before the hype for candidates that went on to lose the primary while steady candidates like Biden won in the end. Biden will be the nominee and win the presidency.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #1)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 06:55 AM

3. +10000000

 

Agree Completely
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 06:52 AM

2. Not only that...

 

... voters could give the Trumpublicans more control in the HoR and Senate. Kiss the SC goodbye forever. We will be a different country.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Mike Nelson (Reply #2)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 07:00 AM

4. So we need to vote for Biden whom Trump fears and win MI, WI and PA...send Trump packing but

 

we need stop fooling around with candidates who have no chance of winning and throw our support behind Biden in order to counter operation chaos...otherwise as the Right wants, Sander will be the nominee and he loses the general and most likely the House.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #4)


Response to RandiFan1290 (Reply #6)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 07:31 AM

9. Sanders has to "earn" the votes of their supporters

 

Sound familiar?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to RandiFan1290 (Reply #6)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 07:50 AM

11. That is not true...Sanders will lose the general which is why the GOP want him as our

 

candidate...I am not actively campaigning against Sanders in the primary because I dislike him (admittedly I do), I would vote for anyone who could defeat Trump. It is because I know he will lose-he is in trouble in Delaware and Virginia. He won't win in states we need. I don't even think he wins the popular vote. As for Hillary. She doesn't have to campaign for anyone...she is not in politics..so she can do as she pleases...as for Joe...he realizes he must get rid of Trump, so will do his best...but then I still think Sanders loses the primary so hopefully we have President Biden and not Trump in 21...
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to RandiFan1290 (Reply #6)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 07:52 AM

14. Lol

 

Just like bs did for Hillary?

Why would he even want their endorsement since they’re such evil corporate shills? He can’t have it both ways.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to nini (Reply #14)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 09:21 AM

31. Yes exactly like he did. Just not as little as Clinton did for Obama.

 


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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Response to Nanjeanne (Reply #31)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 03:58 PM

43. Yeah there's that inconvenient truth and facts.

 

The Rachel Maddox piece should be the end of that discussion.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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Response to RandiFan1290 (Reply #6)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 08:22 AM

17. I don't want to bring up the past, but Bernie didn't bust his ass for Hillary

 

when she won the nomination. If just a few percentage of bernie supporters would have voted for Hillary instead of staying home or voting for Jill Stein, trump would not be president today.

To demand loyalty from those he shunned in the past seems pretty rich to me.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to calguy (Reply #17)


Response to calguy (Reply #17)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 09:21 AM

32. Just watch

 


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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Response to RandiFan1290 (Reply #6)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 10:02 AM

35. Naw, I'm sure Bernie will be consistent and insist that only he is responsible

 

for earning votes. Because Bernie's so consistent....
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Mike Nelson (Reply #2)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 07:02 AM

5. House could change some, but I think we'll hold. Senate almost unattainable in any scenario.

 

In the house, I feel the worst we'll see is a reduction of our majority, I really don't see it going republican majority again this cycle.

The Senate map isn't pretty for us to begin with in 2020, but you are right. I see our ultimate candidate having the potential to affect at least 3 major seats in the states of Michigan (which is already a VERY tight race), North Carolina, and Arizona. We lose in any one of those 3 contests and there Is no realistic path to a senate majority in 2020.

There is one more concern. Right now Senator Warner's seat in Virginia looks pretty solid. Bernie's being our candidate could change that with down-ticket effect.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Amimnoch (Reply #5)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 07:51 AM

13. We will not hold the house if we run left...the polls are terrible...and the senate is attainable

 

with Biden.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Amimnoch (Original post)


Response to RandiFan1290 (Reply #7)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 07:27 AM

8. Already making excuses for his loss, eh?

 

Let's see.. what is that mantra your peep's have spouted again and again? Oh yeah, "it wasn't his job to win the race for her."

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to RandiFan1290 (Reply #7)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 07:32 AM

10. Bernie loses no matter what. nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to RandiFan1290 (Reply #7)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 07:53 AM

15. Is this the new theme?

 

Blame dems for bernies failures?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to RandiFan1290 (Reply #7)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 07:54 AM

16. Oh I almost forgot...it is your candidates job to win over voters.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to RandiFan1290 (Reply #7)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 08:52 AM

24. Walking shoes won't help.

 

https://www.newsweek.com/myths-cost-democrats-presidential-election-521044
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 07:51 AM

12. President Biden. Most people are too smart, and belatedly concerned.

 

Trump will only be reelected by subverting the vote.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hortensis (Reply #12)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 08:39 AM

21. I have no doubt

 

Trump's campaign, along with foreign interests, are working social media outlets to damage Biden and prop up Sanders. It's the only way they win.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to calguy (Reply #21)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 08:53 AM

25. :) Trump's claiming we're "rigging" the election against Sanders.

 

Now where did the Republicans get that idea? Oh, that's right: The giant RW machine invented or co-invented it in the first place and, with Russia's assistance, pushed it along with the initially small Sanders camp.

But a lot more people are better informed this time, and combined vote suppression and theft methods have me a lot more worried than those who just won't learn what they need to. They're a minority at best, and a bunch of the worst turn out to be Republican voters anyway.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 08:23 AM

18. Don't discount Bloomberg, I was

 

and not so much now. I see money in politics back firing on the publicans big time. He has more money than everyone combined. The longer we can get him to stay in the race, the more money he will spend on attacking tRump. You might think this crazy, but if Bernie wins, he could kill tRump in the general if he picks Bloomberg for VP.

Call me crazy, go ahead and call me crazy.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 08:29 AM

20. The sky is falling!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 08:43 AM

22. Trump's prediction was that foreigners will come to kill us

 

so I guess fear works on some types of people
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 08:47 AM

23. My Prediction

 

Trump wins the general and becomes the first president to be impeached TWICE!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to exoskeleton (Reply #23)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 09:08 AM

27. And acquitted twice

 

as long as the AFP American Fascist Party hold the Senate.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to exoskeleton (Reply #23)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 09:21 AM

33. Not very positive of you,

 

If Trump wins, Repubs will take back the House. Yeah, not very positive of me, but then again I see another blue wave coming despite all of the negative threads here on DU.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 09:08 AM

26. The nest time you time travel write down some lotto numbers

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 09:14 AM

28. Help we need you,Barack!!

 

If you really think you can't get involved yet,send Michelle.
Michelle on a stage with Joe in Iowa,PLEASE!!!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 09:18 AM

29. Wow I'm stunned,

 

another Bernie bashing post, but done cleverly. I also predict that Bernie will be our nominee and that he will stomp Trump.

Just curious if this post of mine is ok since I am praising Bernie?

Bernie has the money and the followers and will have a big early lead, folks better jump on the Bernie train because it's getting ready to leave the station.

ps/ when a Bernie bashing thread hits me the wrong way I send Bernie more money and call my daughter who does the same.

Keep those posts coming, kaching kaching.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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Response to gab13by13 (Reply #29)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 10:25 AM

37. ROFL. -nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 09:20 AM

30. I think you are right. Bernie will likely be the candidate thanks to some very misguided

 

But mostly well intentioned supporters PLUS a little help from Trump and Russia. Trump will be re-elected and we will be in a world of hurt.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Dream Girl (Reply #30)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 09:29 AM

34. Wow man,

 

now you are getting personal, bashing me and I resent that. You know nothing about me. I was a union official for 26 years, got involved in politics and was elected to my borough council. I don't need anyone telling me I am following the wrong path, I earned my right to back whomever I choose. I know this, Bernie has fought harder to preserve SS, Medicare, and Medicaid than any of the other candidates.

I know something else, Bernie fought against chained CPI which was offered up to Republicans during budget negotiations, offered up by Obama/Biden. We are very lucky that Republicans were too stupid to take it. Chained CPI would have led to the demise of SS, Medicare, and Medicaid.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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Response to gab13by13 (Reply #34)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 10:27 AM

38. ROFL.. Bashing you? Does this mean you think you're misguided or Trumper or Russian?

 

As near as I can tell those are the only ones the post you're responding to calls out at all, and you find THAT "getting personal". Are you admitting something here?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to gab13by13 (Reply #34)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 10:34 AM

39. I don't disrespect Sanders supporters as a default.

 

Last edited Tue Jan 28, 2020, 01:06 PM - Edit history (1)

Many of my friends are die-hard Sanders supporters. But believe it or not, much of my opposition to his nomination comes from a real desire to protect progressive causes in the USA.

Sanders is not electable. He has very little to show for his long years of service in Congress, and he has a surprising amount of baggage that Democrats (I almost said "fellow Democrats;" ever notice Sanders is only a Democrat when he's running for president?) are reluctant to use, just as they're reluctant to use serious baggage against any other Democrat - they don't want to alienate the other candidates' supporters. Polls taken before the general election of which candidate would do best against the other party are worthless because they do not, and cannot, take into account what the opposing party will throw at them.

I take no pleasure in saying any of this. I actually agree with Sanders on almost everything. In an ideal world, he'd be the ideal candidate. But we're not living in an ideal world.

Consider the presidential elections from 1972 through 1988. Democrats ran progressive candidates each time, and 1976 excepted, they lost each time - badly.

I'm not comparing this election cycle with any other. There are all kinds of reasons each of those elections turned out that way. Did voters really agree with Reagan's politics in 1980, or did Carter lose through a combination of a recession, the Iran hostage crisis, and a lesser ability to play up a crowd? (Likewise, did Carter win in 1976 because people really liked what he stood for, or was it lingering malaise over Watergate and the fall of Saigon?).

I am, however, comparing what would happen in the aftermath of a Sanders defeat with what happened following the defeat of Dukakis. After a string of losses, the Democratic leadership was ready to throw its support behind someone less progressive. Hence Bill Clinton. I proudly voted for him twice, and he did a lot of good (esp. his inspired Supreme Court nominations), but to quote Molly Ivins, he wasn't my kind of Democrat. He was arguably closer to the center than his predecessors. And this was very much on purpose.

It wouldn't matter why Sanders lost. Was it the New York accent? A foreign-driven misinformation campaign? Lack of support from other Democratic candidates? Any or all of these could be true, but the end result would be the same - we won't see another progressive candidate come this close to the nomination for at least a full generation.

Hence my disquiet with Sanders. It's not what he stands for - it's what will happen in spite of what he stands for.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to gab13by13 (Reply #34)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 11:55 AM

40. Mark my words. Sanders is not electable.It will be a bloodbath and we will all be in a world of hurt

 

We will lose what’s left of out democracy. Donald Jr. will be next in line or maybe Ivanka. It won’t matter wat Bernie has promised. He will never be able to deliver because we will have four more years of Trump.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to gab13by13 (Reply #34)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 12:50 PM

41. Good Points. Replace Bernie with Biden in the replies here

 

and see how long it takes for an alert attack.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Amimnoch (Original post)


Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 03:53 PM

42. re: "Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Arizona...end up going to Trump again"

 

Pennsylvania looks pretty good for Sanders vs. Trump

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_sanders-6862.html

as does Ohio, but very little polling...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_sanders-6764.html

Florida looks like a tossup, but the most recent polling favors Sanders...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_sanders-6842.html

but Arizona doesn't look good...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_sanders-6808.html

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2020, 06:33 PM

44. If Bloomberg takes enough of Bidens vote tally on Super Tuesday to hand Bernie victory

 

There will be a pretty sweet irony to that. A billionaire actually helping the resistance for once!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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