Biden, Sanders tied for first place in South Carolina: poll

[Autumn]

Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are running neck and neck in South Carolina, with billionaire activist Tom Steyer not far behind, according to a new poll released exclusively to The Hill.

The poll, conducted by Change Research for the Democratic group The Welcome Party, shows Biden and Sanders knotted at 23 percent support each in the Palmetto State. Meanwhile, Steyer is running in second place at 20 percent.

Only one other candidate, former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, registered in double digits in the poll, with 15 percent support.

The poll, which was fielded from Feb. 12-14 in the wake of the New Hampshire Democratic primary, suggests that Biden, the longtime front-runner in South Carolina, is losing ground in a state that he’s counting on to power his presidential bid into Super Tuesday and beyond.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/483577-biden-sanders-tied-for-first-place-in-south-carolina-poll

[bitterross]

1. The state that gives us Lindsey Graham? WTF Cares?

Who really cares about the place that continues to return Lindsey Graham to the senate over and over again?

They will vote for Satan as long as he has an "R" after his name.

[nobuddy]

2. I'd hazard a guess that Biden cares

Very much so.

[Chemisse]

3. South Carolina will be pivotal for Biden.

So those of us who are following the primaries closely are quite curious as to how that state will vote.

[Autumn]

5. You want to deny people in those red states of their voice? This was

supposedly Bidens fire wall. I'm of the mind that states that almost always go red in the GE really shouldn't play that important role in the primaries, but those red state often make a big determination as to who the nominee is.

[bitterross]

9. Where did I say that? Don't Put words in my mouth!

In no way did I say that people in SC should be denied a voice. I only implied they do have a voice and it is used for stupidity. They keep electing Graham.

[Autumn]

11. I'm not putting words in your mouth. I'm commenting on what you said.

This is the SC Democratic primary. Graham isn't running.

bitterross (3,978 posts)

1. The state that gives us Lindsey Graham? WTF Cares?

Who really cares about the place that continues to return Lindsey Graham to the senate over and over again?

They will vote for Satan as long as he has an "R" after his name.

[bitterross]

16. SC is going to vote for Trump. We don't need to waste time on them

I only pointed out the obvious. SC is going to vote for any ass that has R by their name. They've hated Democrats ever since LBJ passed the Civil Rights Act and made it more difficult for them to discriminate against non-WASPs. Not that the passage of that act changed their behavior at all.

[thesquanderer]

56. ALL state Dem candidate polls are pretty useless, beyond giving us an idea of who is likely...

...to get that state's delegates at the convention, and giving us another data point in comparing the strengths of our candidates relative to each other. The blueness or redness of a state has no bearing on any of that. If you dismiss these polls because of their irrelevance in November, you're looking for them to answer the wrong questions. These kinds of polls are no more or less useful depending on how these states are likely to vote in November.

[still_one]

8. It seems you don't understand the primary process, and the fact that there are Democrats in SC

[bitterross]

13. It seems you don't understand reality. SC goes RED EVERY TIME.

Why the heck we give a shit about IA and other states that are so reliably RED is something I do not understand. Why the hell we spend money and time on them is something I do not understand.

It does nothing to help in the long-term. NOTHING!

SC is going to vote for the MAN who has an R by HIS name EVERY, SINGLE TIME! Until the cows come home.

[still_one]

17. Are you suggesting we eliminate all red states from the Democratic Primary process because

they won't go Democratic?

If that is your logic, I wonder what Doug Jones has to say about that?

[Autumn]

19. You do understand that the OP is about the Democratic primary and not the GE?

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/01/south-carolina-democratic-nominee-elections-806104

Presidential prospects rethink primary election strategy for 2020.

In the wake of South Carolina’s pivotal role in the past two competitive Democratic presidential contests, top Democrats are beginning to rethink their traditional approach to primary season, and to focus their energy on the first Southern state to vote.

It’s a tacit acknowledgment of the essential role African-American voters play within the Democratic Party as much as it is a nod to recent primary election results. With the racially diverse Obama coalition increasingly viewed as the key to the party’s future, the two early states that have historically overshadowed South Carolina — Iowa and New Hampshire — are suddenly looking outmoded to many Democrats.

“The primary process in selecting a candidate will now not be determined by the Iowas and New Hampshires,” said former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who ran for president in 2008. “It will be a long, drawn-out affair, and the first big test will be South Carolina, to see who is strongest among the party’s base, the African-American base of the Democratic Party.”

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/01/south-carolina-democratic-nominee-elections-806104

[bitterross]

21. You do understand the primary in SC for Dems is USELESS

My point is that it doesn't matter what people in SC or IA think. Even the Dems. They don't matter in the larger scheme of things. Their votes will be nullified by the idiot Republicans in their states. Did you miss that fact in the last election? Where the popular vote didn't matter for shit?

[Autumn]

24. Tell the base their vote shouldn't count. nt

[brush]

31. This is about the Democratic primary and who gets our nomination, not the GE.

[bucolic_frolic]

4. Bots and trolls

are creating the same inevitability around Sanders that they did to elect Trump because they want Trump to face a weak candidate in November. American democracy is on the line here. Republicans prefer Sanders so Trump can win reelection. Dictators worldwide want Trump. Wake up, Americans!

[Squinch]

7. Yep. They are dying to run against BS.

[nobuddy]

10. Source?

[bucolic_frolic]

15. Reality and a functioning mind /nt

[nobuddy]

20. So, no source

[nobuddy]

26. Only a Top Mind could understand

[bucolic_frolic]

27. Newbie undermining with gaslighting?

The populace is not very dumb around here. They know it when they see it.

[nobuddy]

29. Oh do tell

[nobuddy]

36. So, are you done here?

[rzemanfl]

37. bookmarking.

[brush]

33. Try trump himself always for pushing Sanders and looking for dirt on Biden.

[nobuddy]

35. So, no source

[brush]

44. Just facts. Were you asleep during the whole impeacment process? You know the cne exposing...

trump for extorting Ukraine to get dirt on Biden, the candidate he fears most?

[nobuddy]

47. So, no source

[brush]

48. Broken record? One would think a Bloomberg supporter would be more aware of the...

dynamics and outside influences operating and attempting to influence who gets the Dem nomination. And for that matter why Bloomberg himself jumped in. But some are just satisfied with silly, repetitious snark instead of understanding and insight.

Enjoy your stay here.

[nobuddy]

49. Perhaps

the other candidates should drop out and let Bloomberg take on Sanders one on one then.

[brush]

51. Actually Bloomberg is my 2nd choice after Biden but it doesn't look good after his dismal debate...

performance.

[handmade34]

52. ...

this and much more... and critical thinking informs many of us


https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/07/bernie-sanders-republican-senate-1307296

Republicans pray for Bernie as Democratic nominee
Some GOP lawmakers would like nothing more than a democratic socialist to be the opposition's presidential nominee.

https://www.businessinsider.com/republicans-hope-bernie-sanders-is-2020-democratic-nominee-2019-5

"If we can run a race against a person that's an out-of-the-closet socialist and promoting socialist ideas, it's a great contrast for us," GOP Senate Majority Whip John Thune of South Dakota told Politico.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/gop-2020-war-plan-run-against-socialists-sanders-ocasio-cortez

GOP 2020 war plan: Run against ‘socialists' Sanders, Ocasio-Cortez

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/republican-operatives-are-trying-to-help-bernie-sanders

Republican Operatives Try to Help Bernie Sanders
“Picking your opponent” is an age-old political manipulation tactic.

[nobuddy]

53. so

your critical thinking and these articles show the polling is wrong?

[handmade34]

55. this is in response to your

request for source of claim that "Republicans prefer Sanders so Trump can win reelection"

[CentralMass]

14. Did the russians or bots interfere with the Iowa caucus ?

[bucolic_frolic]

18. Could they phone in their results?

Good question, and very perceptive!

[CentralMass]

23. According to Iowa Democratic party they were not hacked.

https://techcrunch.com/2020/02/03/iowa-caucus-app-failed/
"A smartphone app tasked with reporting the results of the Iowa caucus has crashed, delaying the result of the first major count in nominating a Democratic candidate to run for the U.S. presidency.

The result of the Iowa caucus was due to be transmitted by smartphone apps from delegates across the state on Monday, but a “quality control” issue was detected shortly before the result was expected."
"We found inconsistencies in the reporting of three sets of results,” said Mandy McClure, a spokesperson for the Iowa Democratic Party, in a statement posted on Twitter.

“In addition to the tech systems being used to tabulate results, we are also using photos of results and a paper trail to value that all results match and ensure that we have confidence and accuracy in the numbers we report,” said McClure, saying this was “not a hack or an intrusion.”

“The underlying data and paper trail is sound and will simply take time to further report the results,” she said."

[bucolic_frolic]

25. Wake up. Would YOU admit it, in their position? /nt

[CentralMass]

28. They took photos of the results and have a paper trail. Are you suggesting the ruskies got to those?

[nobuddy]

50. The Russians photoshopped the photos

[still_one]

12. Change Research is a C rated pollster. I will wait for traditional pollsters to weigh in

This is Change Research methodology:

Change Research is a leader in polling innovation, able to field polls quickly and accurately at a low price point. We recruit new participants online for each and every poll, so Change Research polls are not affected by the dwindling response rates of phone polling. We use proprietary and patent-pending approaches to recruit fresh participants, and we don't rely on online panels of habitual survey takers.
​
We collect survey responses by publishing targeted online solicitations via advertisements on websites and social media platforms. By finding a representative set of respondents via web and social media to take a poll, we are able to cast a net that is wider than phone polls. We reach millennials and seniors, rural and urban dwellers, and members of every gender, race, creed, and political persuasion.


https://www.changeresearch.com/methodology

[Yavin4]

40. "We collect survey responses by publishing targeted online solicitations via advertisements..."

"...on websites and social media platforms. "

To put it succinctly, we're trash.

[still_one]

42. Perhaps that is the reason they are rated as a C pollster

[apcalc]

30. OPEN PRIMARY. Republicans crossing over to vote for Sanders....

[Autumn]

32. Were their complaints of them doing that in the last two election? If it's a problem why didn't the

Democratic party fix that problem. But I bet it's only a problem now that Bernie and Biden are tied.

[apcalc]

39. The Republicans are actively telling their voters to do so.

Perhaps you did not know.

[Autumn]

43. Rush Limpboos started that bullshit in the 80s. Noting new there. Surprisingly Dems still

manage to hold their primaries and a Dem wins the Dem primary. You might want to alert the media, but I think everyone already knows that.

[apcalc]

45. It has been effective. The minority party rules today because

Of this type of chicanery.

[Autumn]

57. Perhaps we should wonder why party leaders haven't done more on their level to prevent it.

Maybe closed Democratic primaries and make voters declare their affiliation for a year to vote in one and do away with all caucuses. I don't think that would take the Republican controlled Senate to approve it.

[UniteFightBack]

46. I see that you think this and everything else you post about is just a laughing matter. IGNORE.nt

[Autumn]

58. Thank you.

[nobuddy]

41. Every 4 years this is an issue

for the losing candidate.

[CentralMass]

38. The Iowa caucus is a closed caucus. New Hampshire is not an open primary.

Or a closed primary. It is one of the states like Massachusetts where you can register as undeclared. Most people use the term independent. Registered Democrats or republicans can not cross over. Undeclareds can select which ballot they want when they vote.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_primary
"Crucially, the New Hampshire primary is not a "closed primary", where voter participation is limited by voters' past or recent party registration. Instead, New Hampshire enables any voter who has been undeclared, or re-registers as undeclared (not registered with any party) to vote in either party's primary. Candidates who do well in the state are seen as having a strong appeal to independents—who account for as much as 41% of the electorate.[4] A strong performance in New Hampshire is seen as a bellwether for how well a candidate can do in a general election, given their appeal to less partisan voters who sometimes flood that party's primary, if they want to participate at all. This system is not a fully open primary, because people who are registered with a party (Republican or Democratic) on voting day cannot vote in the other party's primary.[5]

[ucrdem]

34. "from Feb. 12-14 in the wake of the New Hampshire primary"

That was then, this is one game-changing debate later.

[ms liberty]

59. This. n/t

[Politicub]

54. South Carolina is a BFD.

And more representative of the democratic base than Iowa and New Hampshire. Nevada is also a diverse state, but it has the arcane caucus system which doesn't mimic Election Day in November.

South Carolina will surprise us since the polls have not been very accurate thus far. It will give insight into Buttigieg's efforts to earn support from the African American community. Votes for Steyer may suggest that the base is open to voting for a rich candidate who is using advertising as their primary means of communication.

And most importantly, Biden (and his supporters on DU) have been emphasizing Biden's strong polling in SC as evidence of his electability. With SC's results, we will know for sure if Biden can continue with the same electability argument heading into Super Tuesday.

[Codeine]

61. It looks rather like a blowout. nt