The left in the Democratic Party are severely misreading the mood of the nation

[CalFione]

That’s where 2020 most mirrors 1972.


in 1968, the GOP won a very narrow election and the Democratic party completely misread the mood of the country in 1972 and nominated the farthest left candidate in generations. And got slaughtered.


In 2020, 70% of the public is ok with the economy, but they want Trump out. There is no real thirst among the overwhelming majority of the country for an economic revolution - and the majority will reject that choice.

Running on an economic revolution is a critical error. People will always choose the sociopath over the socialist, especially with an ok economy.

Yes, I know that there is massive income inequality and a host of economic problems... but the public is not ready to overturn the system.

The public IS ready to end Trump Fatigue, but not at the expense of our economic system.


Like 1972, the far left is misreading the public mood.

Like the UK far left a couple months ago was misreading the public mood there.


We are Corbyn-izing our party... and we are going to see the same results.


The only way Bernie beats Trump is if there is a massive 2008-style economic collapse a couple months before the election. To get rid of Trump, we are reduced to rooting for an economic collapse.

Not a good place to be.

[redqueen]

1. No, the pundit class is misreading the economy.

78% of us live paycheck to paycheck.

40% of us can't afford an unexpected $400 expense.
63% of us can't afford an unexpected $500 expense.

Just because the stock market is doing well and the fake job numbers look good does not mean that Americans are doing well economically.

[CalFione]

5. In poll after poll, large majorities are ok with the economy

The only thing that will change their minds is a 2008-style collapse. and it better happen soon.

[redqueen]

8. Please share a few of those polls. nt

[CalFione]

20. Trump has 56% approval on economy....

...despite 44% overall approval

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval_economy-6182.html

[redqueen]

24. That's nice talking point fodder

It's not meaningful without a breakdown of demographics.

[CalFione]

26. it is nationwide

when 56% of the populace gives THIS ASSHOLE President approval on the economy, they aren’t in the mood for an economic revolution.

YES millions are hurting. But they’re not a majority.

we need a massive recession to bring those numbers down enough to make Bernie-nomics palatable to the majority of the public.

[2naSalit]

102. YES millions are hurting. But they're not a majority.

How are you so sure about that?

[brush]

37. Try the most important economic indicator, unemploment. It's at a istorical low.

Everbody who wants a job can find one. This is not a good time to preach socialism and an economic revolution.

[Recursion]

45. Here's the RCP average

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval_economy-6182.html

Here's Gallup's historical trend on the question: the economy is the most popular it has been in 20 years.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/283940/economic-confidence-highest-point-2000.aspx

[Magoo48]

87. Yes please. I'd like to see the polls as well.

I’m a member of the left, and my read on the economy is if you need three jobs to survive, the economy sucks.

[handmade34]

106. ...

from January 31, 2020

Seventy-five percent of U.S. adults say the economy is in good shape, the highest in almost 20 years.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/most-feel-good-about-the-economy-but-not-the-state-of-the-country-opinion-poll/

[Magoo48]

111. Thank You.

[redqueen]

14. 70% of Americans say U.S. economic system unfairly favors the powerful

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/01/09/70-of-americans-say-u-s-economic-system-unfairly-favors-the-powerful/

[Recursion]

46. But the polling says they're OK with that as long as wages go up and unemployment stays down

People are much more concerned with their absolute circumstances than inequality, and for most people at least their absolute circumstances are the best they have ever been.

[5X]

52. BS.

[AverageJoe]

53. "And for most people at least their economic circumstances

are the best they’ve ever been.”

That simply isn’t true.

From Forbes:


Most Americans Struggling Financially Despite The Strong Economy

Donna FuscaldoSenior Contributor

Despite the booming economy and low unemployment, only 29% of Americans consider themselves financially healthy.

That means the vast majority of U.S. individuals aren’t prepared if and when another recession sets in.

-snip-

They found 43 million Americans or 17% are struggling with most if not all aspects of their financial lives. Meanwhile, 135 million or 54% are struggling with some aspect of their financial lives and 73 million or 29% of people are spending, saving, borrowing and planning. All told more than 70% are having some type of financial problem.





https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/donnafuscaldo/2019/11/15/most-americans-struggling-financially-despite-the-strong-economy/amp/

[Recursion]

57. Most Americans have always been struggling

Look, your argument isn't with me, it's with the broad majority of the country that is expressing economic confidence right now.

[democratisphere]

89. Who in god's name would hope for a 2008 CRASH AGAIN?!

The next one will be far worse than the last.

[TexasBushwhacker]

103. No one, but maybe we can fix it right this time

For starters, they shouldn't have bailed out the banks without bailing out the homeowners that were under water on their mortgages.

[democratisphere]

105. When a person applies for a jumbo mortgage without income verification or

job verification, the homeowner had to know it wouldn't end well.

[JCMach1]

6. Spot on... We can't survive here any more at all

[cstanleytech]

32. Except millions of Republicans are also living paycheck to paycheck yet they still voted for Trump

and I doubt that many of them will change their minds.
Why? Because they voted for the piece of shit despite knowing that he was and still is a piece of shit.

[whathehell]

33. Correct -- Most Americans are not doing well economically. n/t

[Recursion]

47. Most Americans seem to disagree with you

https://news.gallup.com/poll/283940/economic-confidence-highest-point-2000.aspx

The economy is the most popular it's been in 20 years. People feel good about money right now.

[whathehell]

68. Most Americans are quoting what they're being told by the media

rather than speaking from personal experience.

[Loki Liesmith]

85. What is your plan to make them stop believing the media?

[whathehell]

110. Shouldn't the Party have a 'plan' for that?

[erlewyne]

40. redqueen, I love that response

Thanks for taking the time, makes me feel good.

The stock market treats me well because I am fortunate.
When I graduated from high school in 1966 I had a future but did
not realize I was fortunate.

Excuse my profanity but fuck the Stock Market. I want healthcare for
all. I want piss breaks at work. I want a future for my grandchildren.

I want to tip those who serve me. I ain't jack shit.

[Sherman A1]

67. +1000

[dchill]

76. The bottom line is ALWAYS...

...the bottom line. Great post!

[democratisphere]

90. Totally agree with everything you said.

THEM are the facts, like it or not. Some people are so stupid that they believe their own rotten economic situation is good or better just because drumpf keeps drilling it into their head.

[redqueen]

92. What amazes me is seeing right wing talking points here.

The economy is good because of bullshit jobs numbers, and the national polls with no breakdown prove most people are doing well? Laughable.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

101. THIS!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[CalFione]

7. and like 1972, the ratf***ing will happen again

But with Putin’s billions behind it.

[Gravitycollapse]

11. I assume you have no shame suggesting Sanders' candidacy is illegitimate.

And people complain about Bernie Bros.

[CalFione]

15. Sanders is as much a victim of the ratf***ing as the rest of us

In 1972, CReEP’s goal was to provide Nixon with the easiest opponent. That’s why they got Muskie out of the race with bogus innuendo so they could end up with McGovern.

in 2019-20, the goal is the same... it is why Trump committed impeachable offenses to damage Joe Biden. The Trump campaign wants to face Bernie.

The only difference between CReEP and Giuliani, is that Giuliani got caught before the election instead of after.

But the result is the same.

[Gravitycollapse]

22. Sanders is winning because he's popular.

If you have something else to say, I suggest you stop speaking in innuendo.

[LovingA2andMI]

81. in three Small States....

The other 47 have not voted yet, nor has Independents who will not vote for Sanders, period.

[Demsrule86]

64. No, if he wins the nomination I wouldn't say that. I would say that

Trump gets a second term and we will be fortunate to hold the house.

[peequod]

35. You mean Bloomborg's billions?

He’s the new moderate Dem savior, didn’t you hear? Get up to date and get hooked into to that sweet Bloomborg cash 💰

[peequod]

39. Then again, Steyer's got billions, doesn't he?

And all of the scuzzy Repubes like Sheldon Adelson, the Koch’s, et al. have their billions. Let’s not forget the rando mercenary billionaires like Zuckerberg and Bezos. They *all* seem to like to light pallets-full of cash on fire, so maybe it’ll all negate each other (?)

[blue-wave]

25. "You liberals will cost us the election. Shut up and vote for who we tell you to vote for."

No. It's not this at all. You are sooo wrong. We are asking Bernie supporters to be reasonable and take a realistic look at the American body politic. Bernie, through words, deeds and policy is far from American mainstream. 1972 is the case study here. Let's not let that happen again.

[tecelote]

49. In '72 you could survive on a 40 hr. a week minimum wage job.

Climate change was not an issue then and as far as I'm concerned, needs to be much more front and center today.

Maybe "the American body politic" needs to focus on the needs of the people.

[appalachiablue]

61. +1 Huge difference between 1972 and now, no comparison really

This nation is headed straight to a Third World Fascist state.

[Recursion]

65. You absolutely could not

My mom was trying to raise us on that. It was awful. It's an absolute myth that that was ever really doable.

[tecelote]

66. You're right. I can't imagine raising a family on that then or now.

But, I was a single guy, had a car, an apartment and pocket money.

You can't have that today.

[whathehell]

74. Yes..It is very different now, and

I know because I was a working adult at the time.

[denem]

3. Oh Lord. Another OP about McGovern.

I could churn out OP after OP comparing VP Biden to Mondale, but what's the point? We all know the arguments by now. What's the point? Sanders will lose big time, on his own merits.

[denem]

17. I will be fighting for Bernie, from the day after nomination, as if my life depended on it,

because in a very real sense, it does. To give up on defeating trump, would be to betray the sacrifices in the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, the World Wars and all that I treasure about about the Republic.

[denem]

23. Why charge a machine gun nest, if one is nearly certain to be killed?

Duty, honor, country.

[OnDoutside]

63. Dems will vote for the Dem nominee. Independents and moderate Republicans will not.

That's the problem, and that's what the Sanderistas couldn't give a fuck about. The consequence is four more years of Trump and McConnell, plus probably losing the house too. The Democratic Party will be as screwed as the Republicans, but maybe that's what the far left really want, the break up of the two party system.

[exboyfil]

73. For the alternative one party state

Four more years to corrupt the judiciary.

[OnDoutside]

95. Yes and it will take multiple s of decades to get back to even where we are now

[LovingA2andMI]

82. And the Supreme Court being lost for Generations.....

Guess they will protest, like that going to do anything.

[OnDoutside]

96. I always say, it's about ideology, not reality. Those who will suffer because of this

are expendable to them, in the fight for their ideological objectives.

[greatauntoftriplets]

88. + 100,000

[Gravitycollapse]

4. Again, as I say over and over, polls show Bernie beating Trump.

As they show pretty much all other candidates doing.

There is no reason right now to assume Bernie cannot beat Trump.

[Fla Dem]

50. Those polls are popular votes only.

Where does he stand in electoral count? HRC won the popular vote too.

[avebury]

77. Didn't the polls show Hillary beating Trump?

Given the depths of interference in 2016 you can't take comfort in polls. Only a strong blue wave on election day might save us.

We need to take the WH, vote McÇonnel out, take back the Senate, and keep the house. We don't have the luxury of picking a candidate that would hurt our chances of achieving this. Democrats are like a sled team whose dogs are trying to pull in different directions which makes it hard to get to you your destination.

[R B Garr]

16. Great post. Sanders 7.5% payroll tax will mean hundreds less

in take home pay, so there goes disposable income or a second car if you need one. No wonder this doesn’t get covered in his rallies.

So much for Sanders being for the working class. So much for the billionaires paying for everything.

This will make our party a laughing stock, and the GOP will fill in all the $$$ blanks that Sanders omits.

[HarlanPepper]

21. middle class folks will also see an income tax increase.

So we’ve got the payroll tax that hammers working class voters and an income tax increase for middle class families. That’ll go over well in the suburbs. Sounds like a winning combination, really.

And all for something that will never get 60 votes in the senate anyway.

[R B Garr]

28. Yes, and take away excellent health care for those happy

with it. Put millions working in healthcare out of work. Who could turn this down!

[HarlanPepper]

31. Yes, it sounds like a really exciting opportunity!

I mean who wouldn’t leap at that?

[Recursion]

48. It's ideologically important for some people to believe that nobody gets free insurance

I don't know why people chose that particular hill to die on, but it leads to this inability to understand why there is a cohort that doesn't want single payer: they don't pay for insurance now, and their take-home pay would go down with a payroll tax.

[exboyfil]

70. While those kids chew through

Your tax dollars getting self actualized and partying in college.

[R B Garr]

71. Yes, and the only responses I've seen so far to that are

personal insults and character assassinations about why we like our insurance (union benefits, even). Insulting 150,000 million with insurance just won’t work. I bet that will certainly backfire.

[Bonobo]

19. Verily! 'Tis much akin to the strife betwixt James Monroe and Tom Jefferson!

Very timely observation!

[rwsanders]

43. Love it!

[ms liberty]

79. Okay, this was an original reply - love it! n/t

[John Fante]

27. Nixon's approval ratings were in the high 50s for most of

1972. They even crossed the 60% threshold for a brief period.

https://historyinpieces.com/research/nixon-approval-ratings

Trump would struggle to hit that mark with his offspring, nevermind the rest of the country.

[CalFione]

29. He does have high 50s on economy, though

even though overall he is at 44ish.

That’s the point. America wants to get rid of Trump, but doesn’t want economic upheaval.

[John Fante]

34. He rarely gets marks that high on the economy.

It's just a poor comparison. Nixon won 60% of the popular vote. Trump will probably top out at 47%. Unlike 2016, this is expected to be a high-turnout election, which naturally favors the Democrats.

Trump is going to need the electoral college to save him again. No Comey bombs either.

[HarlanPepper]

36. Here's what it will come down to for a lot of people.

Behind door number 1: The promise of a tax increase in exchange for a free healthcare plan that will require them to give up their private insurance for an as yet unknown, unseen future govt. operated healthcare system relatively similar to what prosperous nations have throughout the world. Norway, Denmark etc.

Behind door number 2: An annoying human being who embarrasses the country, but who won’t do any of that, but is also easily avoided by turning the channel which costs nothing.


There will be a lot of opinions on which door these voters will choose in the coming months. I tend to believe it’ll be door 2, owing to human nature and the American public’s difficulties with nuanced concepts.

[LovingA2andMI]

83. The Independent will choose door 2....

And we will lose the Supreme Court and possibly the U.S.House. Wonder what the Sanderitisa's will say then or will we even be ableto find them to ask what they think. Probably not.

[HarlanPepper]

94. Precisely.

[uponit7771]

30. K&R, Sanders has no historical swing state appeal outside of MOE, Biden has the most

[David__77]

38. I get it. Some people think Trump is a relatively better steward of the economy.

...

[xocet]

41. Why go back to 1972, when all you have to do is look at 2016? Sanders would have beaten Trump...

just as Hillary did in the popular vote.

In fact, Sanders would have taken the states needed to win the electoral college, too.

Why come in late to shun a winning opportunity? Who would do that?

[blue-wave]

51. Are you for real?

It was because of this in 2016 that Trump won the electoral votes he needed:

"Fully 12 percent of people who voted for Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., in the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries voted for President Trump in the general election."


https://www.npr.org/2017/08/24/545812242/1-in-10-sanders-primary-voters-ended-up-supporting-trump-survey-finds


It was Sanders primary voters who gave the general election to Trump. If Hillary would have won just a fraction of the 12% mentioned above in a few key states, we would never be having this conversation. This is also why the polling was so off in the 2016 general election. So yes, let's go back all the way to 1972.

[AverageJoe]

54. You're suggesting those voters would have also abandoned Sanders?

Doesn’t seem likely.

Sanders’s support transcends political party. Though most of us are registered and loyal Democrats, many Sanders supporters were — and are — independents, and without allegiance to the Democratic Party. I grant you that anyone who switched from Sanders to trump was an idiot, but they would not have made the switch had Sanders been the nominee.

He would have beaten trump like a rug.

[blue-wave]

58. We can argue

all night about who will or won't switch votes, but I certainly do not see a correlation between Sanders' philosophy and Trumps'. I'm sure if asked, the great majority of those 12% of voters mentioned in the article voted for Trump to spite Hillary or the Democratic Party or both.

[xocet]

56. If your statement is sincere...

you might want to re-examine your claim and think through the contingencies a little more closely.

[blue-wave]

59. Well I suggest that you re-examine your claim also

As mine is backed with at least some factual study. Yours is based on speculation.

[rwsanders]

42. Sorry, my experience is that the public wants results.

Democrats held majorities at the beginning of Clinton and Obama's first term and nothing happened. The mood soured and they lost the majority in the mid-terms. They hemmed and hawed and insisted that they were frozen because they didn't have a super-majority.
The left has failed in this way world wide and it is causing a swing toward the radical right across the globe.
Also people are much more aware of the immediacy of the threats we are facing.

https://www.truthdig.com/articles/nprs-egregious-takedown-of-bernie-sanders-fact-checked/
https://www.truthdig.com/articles/robert-reich-makes-the-case-for-sanders-and-warren/

[HarlanPepper]

60. LOL

You do know how the senate works right?

[rwsanders]

107. I'm aware, but even Bill Maher said that Obama could have used a bit of George Bush in him.

As he said, as screwed up as the laws were, he got them passed.

[CalFione]

98. Nothing happened at the beginning of Obama's term?

You mean other than pulling the economy out of the abyss, and enacting the ACA - the most progressive healthcare reform in two generations?


Geezus.

“Nothing”.

[rwsanders]

109. Which economy?

Are you aware that many of us don't own stocks and a lot of folks were booted from their homes?

Plus I don't really care about this economy. This economy is going to result in the loss of a million species, drive climate change over the cliff, has left people homeless, without healthcare, and poisoned our food, air and water.

That was passed later. There were 2 years when a lot could have been done.

[Recursion]

44. This is the most popular economy since the late 1990s

We don't win running against that

[MySideOfTown]

55. I am done.

I am done. Voting Democratic down the line. Period.

[ananda]

62. Wrong!

The vast majority of people like and want
democratic socialism!

[FBaggins]

69. You forgot the sarcasm tag nt

[LovingA2andMI]

84. What?

Says who? America is a Capitalist Nation. Now, it could use more Moral Capitalism but to think a majority of American want "democratic socialism" is so beyond WRONG its laughable.

[RandiFan1290]

72. Welcome Back to DU

Have a bad night?

[IluvPitties]

75. You are 100% right. Bernie is a mistake waiting to happen.

[LovingA2andMI]

78. All of THIS...

Thank you!

[NurseJackie]

80. "People will always choose the sociopath over the socialist, especially with an ok economy."

People will always choose the sociopath over the socialist, especially with an ok economy.

Well said, you!

[still_one]

86. I don't think you have to go back to 1972. If Bernie is the nominee, he is going to be tagged with

the socialist label, and right or wrong, that will be a political liability

[Voltaire2]

91. Apparently we are not supposed to actually vote for the candidates who support our positions.

Weird.

[CalFione]

97. correct. This election is ONLY about removing Trump

policy positions are such a distant second as to not matter.

[Voltaire2]

100. Lulzd.

[question everything]

93. Kick

[Bettie]

99. Well, guy who joined a week ago

if you know 100% for sure who will win over Trump, all you have to do is go to each of the other candidates, show them evidence of your stated truth, and order them to drop out. Then you get your way AND have the added bonus of disenfranchising millions of people!

Sounds, FUN, right? (Because I don't think you actually know anything more than any of the rest of us)

Or we could all just wait and see how it plays out and then, here's the hard part...once we have a nominee, we all rally around them as if they were our first choice, even if they aren't.

We vote, we take other people with us to vote and we work our asses off to win.

NONE of us know for sure what is going to happen. None of us. Not you, not me, not any random pollster.

[OliverQ]

104. 2020 does not resemble 1972 whatsoever.

We don't have landslide elections anymore, and the fact that Bernie is beating every other Dem candidate with every Demographic should tell you that Bernie is not going to be a McGovern.

[mike_c]

108. Senator Sanders is drawing ENORMOUS crowds. How is that...

..."misreading the mood of the nation?" Those folks aren't chopped liver. They're voters, and their mood is the mood of the nation.

[Scurrilous]

112. K&R