CBS/YouGov GE Poll: Bernie beats Trump by the widest margin (+3)

[HerbChestnut]

[lapfog_1]

1. national polls are meaningless

if they meant anything, it would be President Hillary right now.

Swing state polls mean something. Show me how Bernie is beating Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Florida.

[MH1]

5. True but even for state polls - no major anti-BS ad buys yet.

The GOP is holding its fire. Once the Dem party is committed to BS - if that happens - once it is definitely too late - then the real attacks against him will start.

BS may still beat the orange buffoon but I expect those percentages to narrow considerably.

[Voltaire2]

11. They weren't meaningless here when Biden was at the top.

They were used to support the bullshit claim that he was the only electable candidate. Now these national polls don't matter because they don't support that argument.

[HerbChestnut]

13. Yep.

[lapfog_1]

18. you never heard that from me.

the early national polling showed MANY democrats soundly beating Trump...

Now, nobody is.

That should scare the crap out of us.

[thesquanderer]

20. re: "Show me how Bernie is beating Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Florida."

Michigan:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_sanders-6768.html

Ohio:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_sanders-6764.html

Wisconsin:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_sanders-6850.html

Florida:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_sanders-6842.html

[lapfog_1]

22. you bring me

Sanders 48.3 to Trump 48 and try to tell me that Sanders is going to beat Trump...

[thesquanderer]

25. No, you asked to be shown something, so I showed you. He is at least competitive in all.

I thought you were asking a question you actually wanted an answer for. I didn't realize it was just snark. My mistake.

[lapfog_1]

28. show me polls where he leads outside the margin of error...

and ones with much more recent data than RCP.

[thesquanderer]

30. Show me polls where he loses outside the margin of error...

and ones with much more recent data than RCP.

[lapfog_1]

31. nope... that wasn't the question posed.

and doesn't prove anything.

When we started this thing, Biden was clearly the winner (outside the margin of error) in many swing states (forget the national polls, they are meaningless).

But we have torn down Biden, Biden now has many competitors in the "center left" lane, one of whom can spend over a Billion dollars on his campaign without even thinking twice about it, and now we have Bernie leading in a "plurality race" where Bernie ( running more or less alone in the far left socialist lane) is getting more of the base than any other candidate.

But you can't show me a path to victory in November for Bernie.

And in a close race, I submit the repukes will cheat to win... and I think they do every damn time and have since the 1970s... and that means Bernie loses. Only when we put the election outside the margin of error from the swing state polls do we have a chance to win.

[thesquanderer]

38. re: "you can't show me a path to victory in November for Bernie."

The path to victory in November for Bernie is to win important battleground states... and polls show that he is second only to Biden in being able to do that (though we haven't seen many Bloomberg polls yet). So I don't know how you can say that that evidence is insufficient while supporting Klobuchar, who polls worse! Based on polling, if Bernie can't win those states, Amy DEFINITELY can't win those states. (Personally, I think either has the potential to win.)

re: " nope... that wasn't the question posed."

You asked for polls where Sanders showed well against Trump in battleground states, so I did. You asked me to show you more polls to prove something more (that was the question posed), so I tossed it back to you to show me otherwise. Because I suspect neither of us can do either.

[zackymilly]

33. Has Sanders been fully vetted? n/t

[Voltaire2]

41. Oh look a Gish Gallop.

Well done!

[zackymilly]

42. I had to look that one up. Thanks for expanding my vocabulary. May I get an answer now? nt

[Garrett78]

29. Unless they show a different candidate on top. And then they're all the rage.

[totodeinhere]

32. Yes swing state polls are what counts. However, part of this contest is about preceptions, and if

Bernie is seen doing well in national polls that can only help with his momentum.

[jmg257]

47. Don't worry, he's leading trump in many swing states, and better then other candidates in those.

[Turin_C3PO]

3. None of those numbers are good.

We need to be ahead of Trump by a lot more to overcome cheating and suppression.

[HerbChestnut]

15. Once it's clear Bernie will be the nominee, he'll have a better platform to get his...

...message out to GE voters. Once that happens, I suspect his numbers will improve across the board.

[Neon Gods]

16. IMO that number is very good.

Anyone that polls better than the incumbent at this point has to be ecstatic (and not just Bernie). Trump has a big advantage now because his eventual opponents are fighting each other while he gets to fly around the country bashing us.

[zackymilly]

34. I sure hope Joe's numbers step up. I dread a Bernie nomination. n/t

[JenniferJuniper]

4. Only the electoral college matters...

If he was able to beat mainstream Hillary in the electoral college, he will slaughter Bernie.

[LAS14]

7. It's so damn depressing that we live in a country where the margins can be this close! nt

[Demsrule86]

8. That is a national poll and he is doing badly...they all are but Biden has already withstood the GOP

fire Sanders has not. We lose big with Sanders.

[musette_sf]

40. + 1

[Demsrule86]

49. Thank you

[andym]

9. 3% is not enough to guarantee a win-- Hillary was leading by at least that much throughout 2016

She won the popular vote by >2% in the end.

[JaneQPublic]

10. What is the Margin of Error?

Most polls have an MOE of at least 3 percent.

Plus, political analysts say this year, the Dem nominee can beat Trump by as much as 5,000 popular votes and still lose, thanks to population gains in CA, etc. and the Electoral College.

[wisteria]

12. Isn't that a college based poll?

[thesquanderer]

19. don't know, but what does it matter? (n/t)

[LenaW]

27. No.

I participate in yougov polls and am most definitely no longer in college.

[zackymilly]

36. That's one. Oh and welcome to DU. nt

[LenaW]

39. Their methodology is available.

I did the 5 second search and found it for a recent poll from them, not interested in investing more time since I already know, having first hand experience with this polling group. Here's what I found:

"These CBS News surveys were conducted by YouGov between December 27, 2019 and January 3, 2020. A representative sample of 2,000 registered voters in Iowa was selected, including 953 self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents. A representative sample of 1,100 registered voters in New Hampshire was selected, including 519 self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents. The samples were weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based upon voter registration lists and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, as well as 2016 presidential vote. Respondents were selected to be representative of registered voters within Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively."

Nothing about it being college-based. But I'd encourage you to look for the methodology for this specific poll if you are interested. Never a bad thing to do your own research.

[Neon Gods]

14. The pundits are scared of the word "socialism"

All these pundits freaking out that Sanders is toxic and if he's our candidate Trump will eat his lunch don't understand Bernie.

Bernie is a rarity in politics: he's authentic. His message has been essentially the same for 20+ years. It's a message the Democratic party establishment disliked and ignored, and finally in 2016 Bernie got his message out to the people and it resonated. I believe Bernie would eat Trump's lunch - and send him the bill. (My concern with Bernie is age and his refusal to release his medical record).

[HarlanPepper]

44. After the GOP drops $2 billion on Bernie's head it will be more than the pundits who are terrified.

[CousinIT]

17. How many Republicans are they polling? Polls and primaries can be ratfucked...

...and they are being ratfucked.

TrumPutin want Bernie to win for a reason and they are doing all they can to ensure that happens.

Here's the biggest prize TrumPutin get out of this crap: NOBODY. TRUSTS. THE. PROCESS. ANYMORE. And that is to their extreme advantage. Here's one reason that's a huge advantage: https://www.alternet.org/2020/02/trump-has-already-joked-about-defying-2020-election-results-heres-what-could-happen-if-he-refuses-to-concede/

[TwilightZone]

21. The only difference is the number of undecideds.

It appears that they're all within the MOE. Trump's numbers are almost exactly the same in all six and it's statistically a six-way tie. The only difference is the number of undecideds.

[TheCowsCameHome]

23. +3?

Man, if that's true (against that fetid piece of garbage) we really are screwed.

[HerbChestnut]

24. Well, Bloomberg is at (-3) so...

[TheCowsCameHome]

26. Trump should be down by at least ten

against our worst candidate.

This is really scary. All this is within the MOE.

[totodeinhere]

35. Look for Bernie's numbers to get even better as more and more people jump on the bandwagon

as it becomes clear that his momentum is unstoppable. But in the end it will come down to a few swing states and it's going to be close. That's why if Bernie is going to be the nominee we all need to get behind him and work our asses off for him.

[RDANGELO]

37. With that margin, he would probably lose the electoral college.

[democrattotheend]

43. I don't like the look of any of these polls

These are narrower margins for all of them than in the past. And I would feel a lot better if our candidates were above 50.

[HarlanPepper]

45. Not very impressive for any of them.

[tandem5]

46. We're so screwed!

[rockfordfile]

48. I wouldn't put much to it.

CBS News has tilted right-wing.

No doubt our candidates are beating trump