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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 08:54 AM

 

538 Election Update: Biden Surges In South Carolina

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-biden-surges-in-south-carolina/?yptr=yahoo

snip//

After former Vice President Joe Biden finished second in the Nevada caucuses, someone at his post-election speech shouted out, “Comeback kid!” It seemed like an odd claim at the time — Biden finished more than 26 percentage points behind Sen. Bernie Sanders (going by county delegates). But based on the latest polls, Biden may indeed be experiencing a comeback in South Carolina, which votes on Saturday.

As Nevada went to the polls last Saturday, the FiveThirtyEight forecast considered Sanders the slight front-runner in South Carolina, with a 1 in 2 (46 percent) chance of winning it. It gave Biden a 2 in 5 (40 percent) chance. Since then, in a reminder of how fluid primaries can be, Biden’s chances have skyrocketed. As of Thursday at 5:38 p.m. Eastern (?, Biden has a 14 in 15 (94 percent) chance of winning the Palmetto State, while Sanders’s odds are down to 1 in 20 (5 percent).tps://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-biden-surges-in-south-carolina

The first hint of Biden’s comeback came two days ago: Biden had only a small lead on Sanders in our South Carolina forecast at the time, but the first survey conducted entirely after Nevada, from Public Policy Polling, showed Biden up 15 points. At that point, the poll was an outlier. Well, not anymore. Since Wednesday, we’ve gotten six new polls of South Carolina, most of which have given Biden commanding leads.

....

It’s tempting to chalk up Biden’s comeback to his performance in Tuesday’s debate or his Wednesday endorsement by Rep. Jim Clyburn, who carries a lot of weight in South Carolina Democratic politics. But in reality, the polls above were mostly conducted before either of those two events. Instead, the dividing line seems to be the Nevada caucuses. In six South Carolina polls conducted between New Hampshire1 and Nevada, Biden averaged 26 percent and Sanders averaged 22 percent. In the six polls conducted entirely since Nevada,2 Biden has averaged 35 percent and Sanders has averaged 20 percent.

It’s certainly odd that Biden, and not Sanders, would have gotten a bump out of a state where Sanders won nearly twice as many raw votes, but that’s what it looks like. Perhaps it is the manifestation of establishment backlash against the suddenly-real prospect of Sanders becoming the nominee.

And accordingly, that prospect is now getting less likely again. As FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver wrote earlier today, Biden winning South Carolina — especially by a big margin — would put him in good position to win, or at least net many delegates from, the many Southern states that vote just three days later, on Super Tuesday. That could set the table for a drawn-out nomination fight between Sanders and Biden — one that could even lead to a contested convention.


I think Joe will continue to surge nationally in the primaries to come.

MoJoe!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Reply 538 Election Update: Biden Surges In South Carolina (Original post)
UncleNoel Feb 2020 OP
Sloumeau Feb 2020 #1
honest.abe Feb 2020 #2
onetexan Feb 2020 #3
TwilightZone Feb 2020 #4
honest.abe Feb 2020 #5
msongs Feb 2020 #6
peggysue2 Feb 2020 #7
Hortensis Feb 2020 #8

Response to UncleNoel (Original post)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 08:55 AM

1. K&R

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to UncleNoel (Original post)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 08:58 AM

2. Yes, I think the turning point was the NV caucus where Biden came in a solid second.

 

Many thought he was finished after NH and swung to Bloomberg. NV showed he wasn't.

Also, Warren's take down of Bloomberg at the debate also contributed to Biden's recovery.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #2)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 09:05 AM

3. +1 K&R

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to UncleNoel (Original post)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 09:49 AM

4. "in a reminder of how fluid primaries can be"

 

More like a reminder of how fluid 538's predictions have been of late. Sanders was never likely to win SC, yet their model seems to overvalue momentum from other states and national polls, even in states where I'm not sure that makes a lot of sense.

Further, the wild swing in 538's predictions to Bernie after Iowa -- where he underperformed, I might add -- became more a part of setting the narrative than an analytical tool. They made a couple of mid-course corrections that received little notice, but by then, the story was already set -- Sanders was basically going to run away with the thing after one state.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #4)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 09:53 AM

5. Indeed. 538's primary model is like predicting weather 3 months in advance.

 

Impossible.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to UncleNoel (Original post)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 02:58 PM

6. what's the history on multi millionaires posing as revolutionaries? nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to UncleNoel (Original post)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 03:17 PM

7. As I said earlier, Joe had 3 main challenges after Iowa and New Hampshire

 

He had to come in at least 2nd or 3rd choice in Nevada, he had to have a decent debate performance and he needed a roaring win in South Carolina. The added bonuses were a standout performance in this week's debate, his best to date, and Jim Clyburn's full-throated endorsement.

The stars are aligning and Biden has come out of the box, energized and ready for the fight ahead. Because . . .

This is what a comeback looks and feels like after you've been pronounced dead.

Btw, how many obituaries have been written?

and, of course,



AGO4JOE2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to UncleNoel (Original post)

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 03:51 PM

8. It's a switch to suggest Biden's possible resurrection instead of

 

the death 538's been claiming (rooting?) is inevitable for over a year now.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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