First SC polling on primary - good news for Biden

[SCantiGOP]

Last edited Mon Feb 25, 2019, 01:07 PM - Edit history (3)

The sample included only those who said they were likely to vote in the 2020 primary. Of those likely to vote Democratic, Biden got 36%, while Sanders had 14 and Harris 13. Booker, Warren and O'Rourke were all around 10%,
Interestingly, the black voters in the poll selected Biden by 43%, while Booker, Sanders and Harris were all tied at 13%.
Other findings:
The full sample showed support for the Wall tied at 43%. If Trump's not winning this debate in a state as red as SC he is in trouble with his signature issue.
Good news/bad news on the fortunes of our state Democratic Party and chances of defeating Graham in 2020: while the Senator has an overall disapproval/approval deficit of 44/36, less than 41% of the sample said they were likely to vote in the Democratic Primary.
One other good sign was that 55% of our gun crazy rednecks said that military style weapons should be restricted and universal background checks should cover all sales.

Two notes: I don't have a link since I jotted down the numbers while listening to a story on local NPR this morning. And remember that, after Iowa and NH eliminate a few serious candidates and elevate a few mid-level folks, SC often selects the eventual winner. Hillary's campaign never recovered after Obama trounced her in 2008, and Bush's toxic 2000 race basically ended McCain's bid.

(edited to correct an error- see link to story below by still_one)

[still_one]

1. While still much too early to conclude anything, this isn't great news for Sanders who is a known

entity in the South. It reflects his base, but it may not get much better for him. On the other hand for the other candidates I think it can only get better.

[Renew Deal]

2. Sanders polling overall is pretty poor when you compare it to 2016

But, that was a 2 way race. Still, he is not retaining primary voters from 2016 at this point.

[still_one]

6. The problem is he isn't an unknown, and because of that his numbers should be better one would think

He didn't do well on Super Tuesday last time, and I don't see how he is going to improve that unless he can get support outside his base.

On the other hand the other candidates aren't as well known, and I think the odds are their numbers can only go up as people get to know them.

[Renew Deal]

10. I agree

[forklift]

3. Bernie's numbers will improve

His message of universal health insurance and free college tuition resonates with a lot of people. Also, heavy taxation of millionaires and billionaires is a popular issue.

I know most polling shows the exact opposite but I have faith in Sanders to turn this around.

[honest.abe]

5. Most SC voters already know what Bernie stands for.

I dont see much improvement in his numbers. There are reasons he got trounced in SC by Clinton in 2016. Those factors still remain.

[still_one]

7. That is the way I see it too. Biden reinforces your point. On the other hand, the other candidates

I think have a much better chance to improve their numbers as people get to know them.

Sanders needs support outside of his base, and we will see if that happens or not, but as you said people already know him, and one would think because of that he would be polling better.

We will see how thing develop in the next few months

[Tom Rinaldo]

8. I see it differently

I see Biden as the virtual equivalent of "Generic Democrat" at his point. He was Obama's VP for 8 years and absolutely no one in the center left has been taking any significant shots (public) shots at him so far. Sure there are rumblings about his old Senate votes and the like but they aren't being aired yet outside of political junkie circles. Mostly he still is "Uncle Joe", and no one wants to cross him yet because it is possible he will decide not to run, so why get on his wrong side at this point. That will change if Biden enters the race. Right now though he still carries the all purpose label of "electable Democrat". And he is a valid contender, but his current lofty numbers are inflated so long as Biden floats above the fray.

"the black voters in the poll selected Biden by 43%, while Booker, Sanders and Harris were all tied at 13%." So of the "other candidates" that you speak of, or more specifically the ones who are polling in double digits along with Sanders, two ARE well known to the SC Democratic electorate, because that primary electorate has so many African American voters and Booker and Harris are our only two Black Democratic Senators. People may not know a whole lot of details about them but they know that. The fact that Sanders as a white candidate is tied for second with two black candidates, is not bad for him at this point while Biden is leading the pact untested in a competitive phase. The same is true of O'Rouke. All of his positive press last year came from him running against a Republican, not fellow Democrats.

Warren is holding her own with Sanders which is significant, but SC comes after Iowa and NH and those contests may establish stronger momentum for one of them over the other.

The way I see it is there are a whole lot of votes up for grabs, and any one of the current leaders in SC could well have hidden strength as the second or third choice of many people now leaning toward someone who may not prove to still be viable when SC rolls around.

[SCantiGOP]

9. Certainly don't strongly disagree with anything you say here

This is the first poll, and there will be a lot of developments, culminating with the Iowa and NH results, before SC actually votes.
And while I agree that Biden's strength may be explained in large part by his name recognition, I still think it is interesting that he polled this strongly while he is not even a declared candidate.

[still_one]

4. Here is an actual link to the poll and numbers

The San Francisco-based Change Research polling firm conducted the online poll Feb. 15-18 of 1,485 registered S.C. voters in the state who identified as Democrats, Republicans and independents.

Biden was the most popular potential 2020 Democratic contender, followed by U.S. Sens. Kamala Harris of California, Cory Booker of New Jersey and Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

S.C. primaries are open to all voters, meaning any voter can vote in the Democratic or Republican primaries.



Of the 600 voters surveyed who said they planned to cast a ballot in the 2020 S.C. Democratic primary, Biden led with 36 percent support.

Sanders, who ran in 2016 and announced Tuesday he was running again, followed with 14 percent. Harris, who made her second campaign appearance in South Carolina last weekend since announcing her candidacy, garnered 13 percent support.

The poll also found support for Booker, U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke of Texas, with each at about 10 percent support among likely Democratic primary voters."


www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article226541900.html