How does Bernie think he's going to convince millions of voters who chose Hillary last time

[pnwmom]

to switch to him in 2020, instead of one of the many other well qualified candidates?

In 2016 he encouraged his supporters to protest against Hillary during the convention. He didn't campaign for Hillary until September, when he only had 2 events. (He did campaign in earnest in October.) Since 2016, he's made almost no outreach efforts to Hillary supporters and he even re-hired a staffer who announced, days before the election, that she was voting for Jill Stein.

Bernie can't win the MAJORITY of delegates without winning over millions of Hillary voters. How does he think he can manage that?

The reason this matters is because a candidate can't win at the convention without a MAJORITY of delegates. A plurality isn't enough. If there is no majority, then the delegates and the super-delegates will continue to have votes till a candidate with a majority emerges.

It's hard to imagine that this person will be Bernie Sanders, given his lack of attention to the concerns of Hillary voters.

[Shell_Seas]

1. I'm not sure he can win the South during primaries

[JI7]

4. he isn't. the plan is they will split among others

[rampartc]

278. and our nominee is not going to beat trump in the south

answering the op : many of ms clinton's supporters chose her because of "electability." how did that work for us?

[MrsCoffee]

282. We chose her because she was the most qualified person to ever run.

Don’t even go down this bullshit road without mentioning sexism, Russia, Comey, DNC hack, voter purges, blocked recounts, obsessions with her emails and speeches, and a never ending stream of propaganda on social media.

The Comey letter alone cost her three percentage points. If it doesn’t happen, she wins the electoral college.

And how did that scorched earth campaign by her “allied” opponent work out?

[betsuni]

283. +1

[Kahuna7]

284. +1,000,000

[Shell_Seas]

285. Are you sure about that?

Florida and Texas both could be swing states this year.

[rampartc]

287. i would need to be convinced to allow myself such optimism

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

2. That's a BIG assumption!!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[pnwmom]

3. What's a big assumption? How do you think he will get Hillary voters to switch sides

this time, when there are so many other well qualified candidates?

If YOU voted for Hillary last time, what made you pick Bernie this time?

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

18. Easy peasy... look no further than Bernie's progressive agenda.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[pnwmom]

24. That doesn't answer my questions. I'll make it simpler.

Why would a Hillary supporter vote for Bernie over Elizabeth Warren?

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

27. Love Warren... could see voting for her myself. Just like Bernie slightly better...

Lots of people I know who supported Hillary, prefer Bernie over Elizabeth because of his stand on progressive issues. Personally, I hope they team up
in 2020...


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[pnwmom]

35. You know lots of people who supported Hillary over Bernie in the PRIMARIES,

but now would choose Bernie over Elizabeth because she's not progressive enough?

That doesn't make sense. Elizabeth is as progressive as Hillary.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

40. No, Elizabeth is WAY more progressive than Hillary...and closer to Bernie on the political spectrum.

Indeed, Hillary bragged about being moderate and center, which is fine... but, that's not how I would describe Elizabeth. So, if someone is attracted to Elizabeth's policy agenda, Bernie could be seen as an even more attractive candidate.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[pnwmom]

49. So what you said makes even less sense.

Lots of people I know who supported Hillary, prefer Bernie over Elizabeth because of his stand on progressive issues.

Why would someone who, in the primaries, supported Hillary over Bernie choose Bernie over Elizabeth?

[BlueFlorida]

55. Are you shocked that it makes no sense?

[Mr Tibbs]

124. Because they got over it and moved on

[pnwmom]

148. They would have absolutely no reason to pick Bernie over a candidate

who was closer in views to Hillary, their first choice in 2016.

And there are SEVERAL running who are much closer to Hillary.

[Thekaspervote]

165. I'm over it.. here's the thing fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me

Lesson absolutely learned. Won’t move to part two...

[TheFarseer]

164. Because many if not most people

Dont care about labels or don’t understand them. Does progressive even mean anything to most voters?

[lapucelle]

141. No, actually Elizabeth Warren is not more progressive than Hillary Clinton.

Elizabeth Warren is a Hard-Core Liberal

http://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/Elizabeth_Warren.htm




Hillary Clinton is a Hard-Core Liberal

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hillary_Clinton.htm

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

144. I don't care what ontheissues says... I'll go with what Hillary says, cuz no one knows

better than Hillary what her political leanings were when she was running for President against tRumpy. I trust Hillary knows what she's talking about.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[pnwmom]

149. But even based on your argument, it would make no sense for a Hillary supporter

to switch now to "Democratic Socialist" Bernie, when there are actual Democrats like Harris, Warren, Castro, Booker, and Inslee running.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

154. Thank you for finally showing Bernie proper respect by referring to him as a "Democratic Socialist"

rather than INaccurately calling him a "socialist."


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[pnwmom]

155. Democratic socialists are a sub-group of socialists. And he freely describes himself

as a socialist. You can keep pretending, but you won't fool many who were old enough to vote for Hillary in 2016.

https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2015/aug/26/bernie-sanders-socialist-or-democratic-socialist/

We wondered: Were we being inaccurate when we described him as a socialist?

The short answer: It’s akin to calling a honeycrisp an apple — not the most specific description, but not inaccurate. And here’s the kicker: Despite what he calls himself, Sanders isn’t exactly an apple, either.

Sanders’ campaign did not respond to multiple requests for comment. But we found many examples of Sanders describing himself as a democratic socialist, a specific type of socialist who wants public ownership of the means of production (which means the tools and money to make things) and a democratic political system.

But he’s also called himself just a socialist.

That’s because, like Sanders, most democratic socialists use the terms interchangeably, said Joseph Schwartz, vice-chair of the Democratic Socialists of America.

[Thekaspervote]

166. +1000

[lapucelle]

151. What are you talking about? N/T

[malchickiwick]

230. Or, they might see EW as more attractive a candidate than BS

Because of all of his vocal misogynistic supporters.

[mcar]

45. It doesn't make any sense

[samnsara]

252. i voted HRC last time and am sticking with Joe this time..we need

..someone who may physically punch trump in the nose on stage...besides i like him a lot. Im not thrilled with BS or Warren, I mean they are OK but not what i want in a candidate. BUT if either get the nom they get my vote.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

254. Yeah, same... l'd vote for Joe if he somehow managed to get the nom... but in the primary? Never.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[samnsara]

251. exactly..there are a lot of other candidates with progressive agendas..

[Me.]

29. What Agenda?

For all of his years representing Vermont, Bernie Sanders has passed a total of three bills, and two of them were for naming post offices.

[BlueFlorida]

56. Slogans, Platitudes and Photo-ops nt

[Tipperary]

92. Wow, I did not know that. You should make that an op.

I have never been a fan of Bernie’s and never will, but I think that information would be good to get out in the mainstream.

[Thekaspervote]

170. I do believe that it is in the mainstream from 2016, but good to be on the surface for 2020

[lapucelle]

142. And BS's record is less progressive than that of Warren, Harris, Booker, and Gillibrand.

[Me.]

162. Seems Like A Not Trump Form Of 'Illlusion' Going On Here

[lapucelle]

194. It's remarkable that some of his supporters are not even aware of his record

versus the the records of the other candidates.

Hopefully the press will focus more on fact-based information rather than story lines and ready-made narratives.

[Thekaspervote]

168. Awhhh the truth of it!! Painful as it may be

[lapucelle]

139. Warren, Harris, Gillibrand, and Booker all have stronger progressive records than BS.

[Power 2 the People]

201. +1000

[samnsara]

250. a lot of us felt yelled at last time..

..and there are others with progressive agendas. but all in all who ever it is that gets the nom will get my vote..not necessarily because i LIKE the candidate..but only because they are the nom and we dont want trump.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

253. Yes, and the time before that... and we moved on.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[FBaggins]

90. He doesn't need anyone to switch sides

The “so many other” point actually works in his favor, because you don’t neeed a majority to win a primary.

He could easily get a majority of delegates without adding any Hillary voters... then when he’s the nominee of course they’ll support him.

[pnwmom]

169. Bernie wasn't even close to having a majority of pledged delegates last time,

and this time there are a bunch of non-Hillary people competing with him for anti-Hillary votes. So between those people, and the Hillary voters, Bernie's not going to make it.

And CA, where Hillary did very well, is voting in March this year, not June. And there's going to be one less caucus state for Bernie. Washington state, which chose delegates in caucuses last time around, will have them chosen in a primary instead. And Hillary did much better in the primary than Bernie did, though he won the caucuses. (More than 93% of Washingtonians in a recent poll decided to dump the caucuses.)

As a reminder, Hillary got 2383 pledged delegates in 2016, and she only needed 2026 for the majority. The superdelegates beyond that were just a bonus.



https://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/clinton-delegates-pledged-224044

[FBaggins]

172. So? Have you not seen a primary before?

You get delegates by winning state primaries... and those don’t require majorities to win.

[pnwmom]

173. So? We've already hit peak-Bernie. He's loved now by the same people who loved him last time,

except for the ones who've moved on to greener pastures -- like those over by Warren, Inslee, Buttigieg, etc.

And he's not going to be getting any converts from the voters who chose Hillary by a 4,000,000 vote margin in the primaries. HRC's primary voters are DONE with B.S.

[thesquanderer]

279. Dems don't have winner-take-all primaries

So even winning a state could get him fewer delegates than he got in a state he lost last time.

[FBaggins]

286. Thank you for the correction

I was aware of the superdelegate rule change but must have missed the change to all proportional distribution.

I wouldn't say that it substantially changes the argument on this thread. Bernie wouldn't need any of "Hillary's voters" (as if that were a thing) in order to win because "Sanders voters" (same caveat) would be enough for a strong lead when a dozen or more candidates are splitting the remaining delegates...

... BUT it dramatically changes my perception of the most likely path for the next 15 months. The chances of a brokered convention hurting us in the general (eating up our fundraising and damaging our eventual nominee) just doubled or tripled in my estimation.

I suspect I'm going to have to deal with more than my share of "your concern is noted" sniping.

[thesquanderer]

288. re: "when a dozen or more candidates are splitting the remaining delegates"

I think it will probably be down to half that by mid March.

[FBaggins]

290. I also don't think that he'll keep "his" voters

or, for that matter, fail to win some voters who preferred Clinton last time around.

I just found the OP's theory to be strange.

[Thekaspervote]

176. How? He didn't even come close the last time. What has changed?

Especially as so many have pointed out, many great candidates to choose from without the baggage

[FBaggins]

183. I don't think he will

But the OP’s rationale is exactly backwards. The fact that a single opponent is replaced by several doesn’t make it less likely a candidate can win... but more.

Second place in polling is unimpressive when there are only two candidates. Solid second is a great place to be when there are a dozen or more... particularly if the early primaries lean more progressive

[Gothmog]

234. Polls show Bernie Sanders' popularity among all voters is plummeting

Link to tweet

One of the arguments Bernie Sanders' fans made during the 2016 Democratic primary was that he was more electable than Hillary Clinton. His favorable ratings with the general electorate were far higher than Hillary Clinton's. Indeed, Sanders maintained fairly high favorable ratings with all voters as late as 2018.

Sanders' popularity among all voters seems to be declining considerably in the last few months, however.

Our new CNN poll puts Sanders favorable rating at 46% compared to an unfavorable rating of 45% among registered voters. This is only the latest poll to have Sanders at basically even in his net favorability rating (favorable-unfavorable). A Quinnipiac University poll from late December gave the Vermont senator a net favorability of just +2 points. An average of all recent polls put Sanders' net favorability at about -1 points.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

257. Sounds more like wishful thinking!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Gothmog]

259. Denial is not just a river in Africa

Link to tweet

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

261. Glad you show Bernie proper respect by recognizing him as "frontrunner"...at least that's progress!!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Gothmog]

263. In the real world, these numbers show that sanders is NOT electable

In the the real world, these numbers are bad news for sanders. sanders is not electable in the real world

[Gothmog]

241. A significant portion of sanders support were really non-democrats who will not be back

Link to tweet

Without the #neverhillary voters who were not really democrats, sanders will have a very hard time repeating past results

[Thekaspervote]

163. They won't pick BS. Hillary should have been potus- he should have been out there campaigning

Everyday Everywhere like she did for Obama ... didn’t happen.

And you want them support this guy... naaaa!

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

221. Hillary graciously took responsibility for her heart-wrenching loss... you should accept that.

One thing we should all agree on is to cease with the circular firing squad. We need to stop eating our own!!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Gothmog]

273. Many real democrats have very long memories

Good luck in getting these real Democrats’ support. They have long memories and will not forgive or forget

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

291. True, Hillary should've... soon it'll be Bernie, did've!!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Gothmog]

218. So booing Congressman John Lewis will help win Clinton voters in the real world?

sanders will not do well in the south and will not be getting any significant African American support

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

220. You can keep saying that over and over and over again... won't make your dreams come true.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Gothmog]

233. Have any significant number of African American voters shown up to a sanders event yet?

Last edited Thu Apr 11, 2019, 04:33 PM - Edit history (1)

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

239. Have you found video of any significant number of African Americans attending a sanders event yet?

[Gothmog]

289. From my Twitter feed

Link to tweet

?s=20

[RDANGELO]

5. I supported Bernie in 2016; I don't now. This is nonsense.

Bernie ran for the nomination; he drew a contrast which should be expected form any major competitor. Hillary won the nomination; Bernie supported her.

[pnwmom]

7. What is nonsense? Why do you think millions of Hillary voters would switch to Bernie

instead of choosing Biden, Harris, Inslee, Castro, Klobuchar, or one of the others?

[RDANGELO]

25. What is the rational reason for Hillary supporters to hold a grudge against Bernie?

If there are Hillary supporters who wont consider Bernie because he ran against her in 2016, I don't think that is a rational reason. What exactly do you expect Bernie to do?

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

30. Most Hillary supporters I know are reasonable, rational, and fair... they don't hold grudges...

that would be self-defeating.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[BlueFlorida]

57. ...

Most Hillary supporters I know despise Bernie and are contemptuous.

I'll vote for Bernie in the GE if he is the nominee but none of my Hillary supporter friends will. They will not vote in the POTUS box and vote for down the ballot Democrats.

Bernie might as well drop out in my opinion unless Old Towne Media needs the profits.

https://vtdigger.org/2016/07/15/sanders-campaign-millions-go-to-mystery-firm/

[pnwmom]

72. I will vote for Bernie if he is the nominee. But I don't know a single Hillary supporter

who would pick him in the primaries. And I have friends who supported Bernie last time who are more interested in other candidates now, like Warren and Mayor Pete.

[MrsCoffee]

38. There are many.

But we aren't allowed to talk about them here.

[LongtimeAZDem]

47. +∞

[melman]

63. lol

lol

[Me.]

97. + 100

[pnwmom]

71. It's not a matter of holding a grudge. He didn't interest them before and there's no reason

to think they'll choose him this time, over one of the many other excellent candidates.

He's presenting almost the same spiel as last time around. It didn't work then and it won't work now. Not to win a MAJORITY.

[RDANGELO]

79. That's a reasonable analysis since Hillary supporters would tend to be more moderate.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

255. Yes, why Hillary supporters are more likely to go for Joe.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[radical noodle]

75. It has little to do with him running against her

and more to do with the way he reacted to losing to her.

[Thekaspervote]

182. You nailed it!

[Amimnoch]

93. Many MANY reasons, but not allowed to be posted.

Most of the ones that would be stated would fall under "don't keep fighting the last Democratic presidential primary" or "don't bash Democratic public figures". Those are the rules, and we adhere to them.

Without breaking the rule, I am one, and many here are (read through the posts, PLENTY of evidence), and many out in Twitter are, and I personally know quite a few who will not support him. More than a few won't support him under ANY condition.

ANY Democratic Party candidate or bust.

[lapucelle]

150. I don't think they're holding a grudge.

There are other candidates who have a much stronger record than he does and better reputations for collegiality, which is an important leadership quality.

In addition, there are genuine concerns over his work ethic, pro-gun votes, sponsorship for funding of the military-industrial complex, and his problematic votes on Russia sanctions, including his having missed the most recent vote.

It took a deliberately leaked letter signed by 24 whistle blowers for him to finally address allegations of a pervasive predatory culture, discrimination, harassment, and sexual violence in his previous campaign.

Finally, having hired a campaign staff made up primarily of virulent anti- Democratic Party operatives and Jill Stein supporters, he has made it abundantly clear that he does not have the requisite judgment for so high an office.

[UniteFightBack]

157. We didn't pick him the first time and now with even more choices we ain't gonna pick him now.

Maybe it's a grudge for some but for me it just is what it is.

[Thekaspervote]

181. The rationale is he said he wouldn't play dirty in 2016.. he did. For 2020 he's hired attack dogs

The likes of sirota. I don’t call that holding a grudge. It’s called wising up!

[Demsrule86]

205. That is not it. Many including me feel he did not support her properly in the general.

I vote for Sanders in a general but not in a primary.

[LongtimeAZDem]

211. Absolutely; "because he ran against her" doesn't even come close to describing the issue.

[Demsrule86]

212. I am surprised that folks don't understand how horrifying the2016 general election was ...

Last edited Thu Apr 11, 2019, 01:45 PM - Edit history (2)

Trump was elected...the worst president ever.

[LongtimeAZDem]

213. I'm not, but getting into it is frowned upon

[Demsrule86]

223. I said election not primary...the election of 16 was heartbreaking

[thesquanderer]

280. Two things are different this time

One thing is that there may have been people who voted for Hillary last time even if they preferred Bernie, because they thought Bernie didn't have a chance, especially in the early part of the cycle. Voting for him seemed more like merely making a statement. This time, he's actually seen as a credible candidate.

Also, there are 4 more years worth of young voters now able to vote for the first time, this gives Bernie a fresh pool of new potential voters who he can draw from who weren't Hillary voters last time.

[pnwmom]

281. There won't be enough new voters to make up for the 4 million edge Hillary last time.

And while there is a new group of young voters, there are now 3 thirty-something candidates who might interest them, too. And Bernie will have fewer caucuses to participate in, the only places where he really shined last time. My state of WA is one that has just switched to picking delegates from our primary. And our primary last time chose Hillary, even though all of our delegates went to Bernie, through the caucuses. That won't happen again.

[LongtimeAZDem]

48. +∞

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

6. I don't know, and I supported him in 2016 before switching to Hillary at the convention,

but I won't this time. Then, the choice was binary - Hillary or Bernie. It's a whole different scenario now. Even for those who are looking for a "progressive" candidate there are highly-qualified alternatives to Bernie, like Harris and Warren. Warren in particular checks all the economic-progressivism boxes, and she's at least as qualified (and less burdened with Bernie's divisive baggage and lack of tax returns). I haven't made a choice yet, except that it definitely won't be Bernie, Gabbard or any of the vanity candidates like Williamson or Yang.

[Irishxs]

13. I totally agree. I voted Bernie in primary, then ended up with Hillary.

This time it’s a much different choice. My “no way” list includes gabbard, yang, gillibrand, booker, and a few more, probably also bernie. I want a fighter who can whoop up on potatohead.

[still_one]

19. In my view the most intelligent candidate in the whole group is Warren, especailly in regard to her

grasp of economic issues, and how to solve them.

[pnwmom]

73. I like Warren a lot, too. And I think she'd do much better in the general than Bernie would.

But I think that about several of the candidates.

[still_one]

77. I agree.

[dogman]

8. There are many who are not that hung up on the past.

Much of the Country does not dwell there.

[pnwmom]

10. Why would a Hillary voter pick Bernie over one of the others? He's the same candidate

who they didn't choose last time. And he's made no effort at outreach.

[dogman]

15. They might be sick of t-Rump and want to win.

He is second choice for a few candidate's supporters, the field will ween. We'll see who has the delegates at the convention. His outreach is a strong, clear, consistent message. If you don't buy what he is selling, you can go elsewhere, that's what it's all about.

[pnwmom]

20. That would be true in the general. But I don't know any Hillary supporters who think

Bernie is the strongest candidate to beat Trump.

[dogman]

26. I don't know any Hillary supporters at all, so I don't know what they think.

I know a few Bernie supporters who are looking at other candidates, but those candidates have no movement yet and I think their will be a thinning or a brokered convention might be possible. Looking at polling I just can't believe people in the real world are as hung up on 2016 bickering.

[pnwmom]

37. I know lots of Hillary (and Bernie) supporters, and I don't know a single Hillary supporter

in the primaries who's interested in Bernie this time around.

[dogman]

44. There's this.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/128761656

If that holds, People will be start to think about this early next year. A clearer picture will evolve. Right now the lesser candidates are being hindered by the polls including Biden. With him listed, many don't stand a chance of rising, which boosts funding. He is scaring away some support, I think.

[pnwmom]

52. That's nothing but name recognition at this point. In 2015 very few people would have said

Sen. Bernie Sanders of VT would have had a chance.

We don't know who's going to move ahead of the pack once the debates and primaries begin.

[yaesu]

69. Yep, I'm so over the 2016 bickering, its a whole new ballgame now with a ton of good, progressive

candidates so the point of this thread is quite outdated.

[radical noodle]

78. I think that's the point of the OP

There are a ton of good, progressive candidates from whom to choose so Hillary voters would be unlikely to pick Sanders this time.

[True Blue American]

102. I was a Hillary supporter

But that is 2016. Now I want to see how the fresh field works out. I have no intention of fighting the last last election. Not even 2018. I want to win in 2020.

Retreads are not for me.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

59. No... the past is so yesterday.

Last edited Thu Apr 11, 2019, 07:46 AM - Edit history (1)

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[lapucelle]

195. Past is prologue.

[still_one]

9. Easy. He will appoint Briahna Joy Gray, David Sirota, and Nina Turner to high positions in his

campaign, and all who not only voted for Jill Stein in 2016, but encouraged others to do , up until the day before the election.

Oh he is a "real uniter" alright.

If Sanders wasn't in the race, I wouldn't want Biden to run, but since he is, I want Biden in the race, because I believe that will stop Sanders from getting the nomination in a brokered convention.

I am not just saying this because I think he is a divisionary candidate among Democrats, but because I believe if he got the nomination, we would lose the general election, because he would not be able to succeed in any red or purple states.

[LongtimeAZDem]

51. Yep

[still_one]

61. I also believe Biden can win a general election

[awesomerwb1]

80. Those names hired by BS

That is a big a turn off for myself and my circle of political friends as there will ever be.

I could actually see BS hiring Candace Owens for a Minority Outreach position at this point.

[still_one]

82. ...........................................................................................

[True Blue American]

103. 100%

[Decoy of Fenris]

11. Why should he? If he appeals to folks with his messaging, they'll vote for him.

Sanders doesn't strike me as the type to do much meaningless, simpleminded pandering, and Clinton supporters don't strike me as the type of people to take the hook on a pander even if it's offered. They'll either support him on policy and/or actions, or they won't, same as with any other candidate. If it goes to delegate votes, then so be it.

[pnwmom]

12. Because he can't win the nomination without a MAJORITY of delegates.

And he can't get that majority without getting millions of Hillary voters to pick him over someone else.

He lost to her by 4 million votes last time. That's a pretty big hole to dig out of, and he won't manage that without getting some Hillary votes this time.

If it goes to a brokered convention, someone like Biden -- who is much more conservative than Bernie -- will win. Maybe that's Bernie's actual goal, but it seems unlikely.

[Decoy of Fenris]

23. Point being, I just don't think he cares. A brokered convention will winnow the field.

I wouldn't be sweating too hard over it if I were in his place either. Truth told, I think once Biden announces, Sanders will have very little chance regardless of any pandering he stoops to and I think he knows that.


ON EDIT: You edited in on the brokered convention, and I'm in 100% agreement with that part. If I were Sanders, I'd bank on a brokered convention to winnow Warren, Beto and Buttigieg (spelling) supporters, trying to pick them up to make up the difference.

SECOND EDIT: Corrected Buttigieg's spelling.

[Maru Kitteh]

89. Holy Moses! The return of the fabled "BROKERED CONVENTION"

Ya - still no.

[qazplm135]

132. I mean I think it's a real possibility this time

I think you see Biden and Bernie drop into the teens, and one or two others in the teens and you might have a four way of folks who all get significant numbers of delegates.

Then you have one of two scenarios...one of the candidates dropping out and throwing support to another (perhaps in exchange for VP consideration), or you have a convention with no one with the requisite number of votes.

If someone breaks out, then yeah that will be that, but I don't see one person pulling away by a significant margin.

[jberryhill]

14. Well, golly, how did an electorate which voted for Barack Obama

...subsequently lose a chunk of votes to Donald Trump?

How did we go from Ronald Reagan to Bill Clinton.

How is Joe Lieberman looking as a VP pick in retrospect?

Shit happens.

[pnwmom]

16. Do you personally know any Hillary voters who are supporting Bernie now?

If so, why are they supporting him this time instead of someone else?

[jberryhill]

21. This may come as a shock

But I do not generally poll persons I know about their primary voting preferences.

The number of persons whom I personally know, in general, is not a substantial voting block, nor would it be representative of anything in particular if I did know their voting histories.

[Cha]

22. There's one on this board. But, there are

many more who supported BS and have now moved on for one reason or another.

[calimary]

198. Wouldn't be me.

[still_one]

28. A huge factor was the economic collapse that occurred. That helped President Obama tremendously.

There are reasons that favored Bill Clinton also, a big one was anger toward George H. Bush in increasing taxes, which divided republicans, plus Perot's third party run, which also helped Bill Clinton.

Forgetting what we know about Lieberman now, he was a terrible pick before that. He brought nothing to the table, and in the debates he came across very badly. No energy and no fight. Gore made a terrible decision along with his advisors on that choice.

Ironically, McCain chose Palin, and they had Lieberman tutoring her in foreign affairs. That is what I call Karma.


However, your point is a good one, unexpected things happen

[Cha]

17. From what I've seen on Twitter

and here most Democratic Voters are choosing other candidates than BS.

Fortunately, we have a wide range of excellent choices.

[Voltaire2]

32. You can plug in any of the candidates names

into that statement and it would be equally valid. At this point nobody is polling above 35%.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

64. Riiiiiiight... that's why Bernie leads in the polls among all the declared candidates.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Gothmog]

274. If sanders is the nominee, trump wins

Link to tweet

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

276. I trust the voters... who trust Bernie!! Eventually, you'll realize you're wrong about Bernie...

hopefully, before President Sanders' reelection in 2024.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Gothmog]

277. How can sanders get the nomination without African American voters?

I will support the nominee of the party but too many real democrats have long memories and these real democrats will not forgive or forget

[aidbo]

31. You seem concerned.

[Cha]

34. We all are "concerned" about getting

the best candidate to beat the freakshow fascist.

And, I don't think it's BS.

[democratisphere]

43. Totally agree.

[cannabis_flower]

46. And I don't know it's ...

Joe Biden either. I would vote for Joe in the General Election but I probably won't be supporting him. I'm not sure who I'm for in the primary yet. I only know who it won't be...

Won't be Tulsi Gabbard, won't be Kirsten Gillibrand, won't be Marianne Williamson.

I voted for Bernie Sanders in the primary last time but not sure if I will again.

I like Elizabeth Warren also. I don't know enough about the rest of them to rule them in or out.

However, any of them that wins will have my vote in the General Election

[pnwmom]

39. Yes, I am. I think a brokered convention is a large possibility, and that will greatly reduce

our chances to beat Trump.

[Ninga]

256. I totally agree that a broakered could nvention will be the death of D win. Social media will

convey the discord to an extreme so much so, that D's will eat their own.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

62. More like SCARED...not sure why. Bernie's progressive agenda is extremely popular with likely voters

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[pnwmom]

74. He doesn't stand out as progressive anymore. Not against people like Elizabeth.

Other than on his insistence in sticking to a label, "socialist," that turns off even more voters than it attracts.

Warren is too smart to do that.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

91. Why mischaracterize Bernie's message? You know full well he doesn't label himself a "socialist"...

he refers to himself as a "DEMOCRATIC socialist"... in the mold of FDR. There's a BIG difference!!

So, if you're going to bash Bernie, at least be accurate. I see absolutely NOTHING wrong with Democratic socialism. Bernie wears the "Democratic socialist" badge proudly... as he SHOULD!! This also accounts for why AOC is widely popular... her agenda promoting Democratic socialism is how she was able to knock off the #3 Democrat in the House and why, without a doubt, she is a President in the making.

Other Democrats would be SMART to embrace the label... even Elizabeth, whom I obviously love!!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[pnwmom]

108. Democratic socialists are still socialists. You are thinking of "social democrats," like the

Scandinavians. They practice a well-regulated capitalism, with a safety net. Like FDR Democrats.

If Bernie is really just an FDR Democrat, and not a socialist, that's what he should call himself. But Bernie insists on calling himself a Democratic Socialist, and they ARE socialists. You can see what the views are by looking at their website.


From the Democratic Socialists of America

https://www.dsausa.org/about-us/what-is-democratic-socialism/#govt

Today, corporate executives who answer only to themselves and a few wealthy stockholders make basic economic decisions affecting millions of people. Resources are used to make money for capitalists rather than to meet human needs. We believe that the workers and consumers who are affected by economic institutions should own and control them.

Social ownership could take many forms, such as worker-owned cooperatives or publicly owned enterprises managed by workers and consumer representatives. Democratic socialists favor as much decentralization as possible. While the large concentrations of capital in industries such as energy and steel may necessitate some form of state ownership, many consumer-goods industries might be best run as cooperatives.



https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/09/03/what-would-a-socialist-america-look-like-219626

Democratic socialism is about expanding democracy.
David Duhalde is the senior electoral manager for Our Revolution, the Sanders-inspired progressive nonprofit.

The often-ignored core of how we would implement socialism is the expansion of who makes decisions in society and how, including the democratic ownership of the workplace. Democratic socialism in the United States is as much about expanding democracy as it is anything else.

In the short term, socialists, like liberals, want to protect, strengthen, and expand social services and public goods. We do so, however, not just because those programs are humane, but to move us toward a social democracy where people’s lives are less bound to the whims of the so-called free market. Universal health care and a jobs guarantee, two seemingly radical ideas that are in fact currently before the Senate, would be just the first steps toward social democracy.

Establishing democratic socialism means democratizing ownership of capital, our jobs and our personal lives. Socialists believe that if you work somewhere, you should have a say it in how it’s run. Through unions, worker councils and elected boards, this is possible at the company level today. Furthermore, if your labor generates profit, under socialism you would have an ownership stake and a democratic say in how your workplace is run. Co-ops and public enterprises like Mandragon in the Basque country, Cooperation Jackson in Mississippi and Red Emma’s in Baltimore give us a partial glimpse into what such ownership could look like. This type of democratized economy would grant autonomy to historically neglected communities, and it would be the foundation of any socialist United States.


https://jacobinmag.com/2018/08/democratic-socialism-social-democracy-nordic-countries

But absolute numbers are always deceptive out of their context. There are about 2.8 million total employed workers in Norway. Just 10 percent of the employed workforce work in these state-owned enterprises. The public sector in general employs about 30 percent of the workforce, the highest proportion in the capitalist world.

While this is surely a lot in comparison to other capitalist democracies, the Norwegian state still leaves the significant majority of workers working in capitalist firms for their survival. This is even more so the case in the other social democracies.

Democratic socialism, on the other hand, should involve public ownership over the vast majority of the productive assets of society, the elimination of the fact that workers are forced into the labor market to work for those who privately own those productive assets, and stronger democratic institutions not just within the state but within workplaces and communities as well. Our characterization of democratic socialism represents a profound deepening of democracy in the economy.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

112. Nope, BIG difference... please stop mislabeling Bernie, you're being disrespectful to him.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[pnwmom]

114. I'm not mislabeling him. You are. Democratic socialists ARE socialists,

according to their own website. And according to Our Revolution.

If Bernie views himself as a Social Democrat that's what he should call himself, but he doesn't.

https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2015/aug/26/bernie-sanders-socialist-or-democratic-socialist/

Sanders’ campaign did not respond to multiple requests for comment. But we found many examples of Sanders describing himself as a democratic socialist, a specific type of socialist who wants public ownership of the means of production (which means the tools and money to make things) and a democratic political system.

But he’s also called himself just a socialist.

That’s because, like Sanders, most democratic socialists use the terms interchangeably, said Joseph Schwartz, vice-chair of the Democratic Socialists of America.

"When Bernie is asked, ‘Are you a socialist?’ he doesn't deny it, and he immediately talks about Scandinavia. He uses them interchangeably. But if you look at his history, he knows the distinction," Schwartz said.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

116. You might want to follow Obama's advice and stop with the circular firing squad...

We need to unite, not eat our own... it starts with showing Bernie proper respect!!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[pnwmom]

117. Bernie's already filed to run as an Independent for the Senate in 2024.

Maybe he should follow Obama's advice and join the Democrats, instead of just using the party every 4 years.

That would be unifying.

https://www.npr.org/2019/03/04/700121429/bernie-sanders-files-to-run-as-a-democrat-and-an-independent

Bernie Sanders filed Monday to be a candidate for the Senate in 2024 — as an independent.

But last month, Sanders filed as a Democrat for president.

It's not unusual for candidates to file with the Federal Election Commission for re-election to their current office, which allows them to begin raising money. Most candidates file shortly after Election Day, in fact.

But with Sanders, it creates the odd situation of having a high-profile presidential candidate file to run for two different offices with different parties, just as the Democratic Party is adopting rules mandating presidential candidates take something of a loyalty pledge.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

119. Yup, change the subject... I don't blame ya.

BTW, Bernie will be the Democratic President in 2024... that's all we need to know.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[pnwmom]

120. Right. When tens of millions of Hillary supporters decide he's a better candidate

to vote for than Warren, Harris, and all the other contenders.

[Mr Tibbs]

131. Hillary isn't running

[pnwmom]

134. She ran in 2016, in case you didn't notice. And the people who chose her over him,

by a margin of 4 million votes, are extremely unlikely to decide to back him this time.

Nothing has happened in the interim to endear Bernie to them, and several compelling contenders are likely to win their votes.

That means that Bernie will be stuck with, at best, a plurality; but a majority is required at the convention or else the superdelegates weigh in. And they're not going to choose Bernie either.

[Thekaspervote]

184. that's not changing the subject! It points out the fact that he does not see himself as a dem

So once again he will use the democratic platform for his own goals, but when the election is over he will go back to being independent. I don’t call that being respectful.. do you?

[Demsrule86]

206. Obama was talking about attacks on Biden by a 2016 Sanders supporter

And who also served on the board of out revolution.

[Mr Tibbs]

126. Labels over substance for 100, Alex

[pnwmom]

147. Right. That's exactly what Bernie is doing when he insists on the socialist

or "democratic socialist" label, while NOT really espousing socialism or socialistic principles -- or so he says now.

[Mr Tibbs]

125. Democratic socialism is heavily regulated capitalism

That is what Bernie has been selling for the last 4 years.

[comradebillyboy]

143. I suppose you can make up your own definition for words,

but socialism is not really any kind of capitalism.

[pnwmom]

146. Not according to the Democratic Socialists of America.

Bernie's just making things up as he goes along.

He's been interested in socialism since the 70's. Now he's calling it Democratic socialism, and pretending it's the same thing as practiced by the social democracies. It's not.

[Demsrule86]

207. No it is not.

[comradebillyboy]

140. Thanks pnwmom. I get so tired of people telling me better social services

are socialism while ignoring the actual meaning of the word.

[Gothmog]

236. Polls show Bernie Sanders' popularity among all voters is plummeting

Link to tweet

One of the arguments Bernie Sanders' fans made during the 2016 Democratic primary was that he was more electable than Hillary Clinton. His favorable ratings with the general electorate were far higher than Hillary Clinton's. Indeed, Sanders maintained fairly high favorable ratings with all voters as late as 2018.

Sanders' popularity among all voters seems to be declining considerably in the last few months, however.

Our new CNN poll puts Sanders favorable rating at 46% compared to an unfavorable rating of 45% among registered voters. This is only the latest poll to have Sanders at basically even in his net favorability rating (favorable-unfavorable). A Quinnipiac University poll from late December gave the Vermont senator a net favorability of just +2 points. An average of all recent polls put Sanders' net favorability at about -1 points.

[AlexSFCA]

33. in a very crowded primary, bernie can win the nomination

with just 30% of actual votes until it becomes inevitable. Isn’t it similar to trump’s victory?

[pnwmom]

36. How? What makes you think he would win in a brokered convention with only 30%

of actual votes? Why wouldn't the delegates and superdelegates get together to pick a compromise candidate over someone who had won only 30% of the votes?

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

58. Not only CAN Bernie win the nomination, but he WILL win it... the writing's on the wall.

The size of his rallies, which just keep growing - while those of the other candidates keep shrinking - are the dead give away.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[lunamagica]

67. He had huge rallies in '16. Thousands and thousands of people who didn't vote

rallies are meaningless.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

118. "Rallies are meaningless"... ohhh okayyyyy, whatever you say.

Tell that to Kamala supporters who brag nonstop about the size of her political rallies... which, btw, are dwarfed by the turnout for Bernie!!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[lunamagica]

121. I'll tell that to anyone. Crowds are miningless. Just ask President Romney

Tris was in Pennsylvania, a stare President Obama won

[MineralMan]

95. A lot of writing on walls is just graffiti.

Read it before it gets removed.

[Demsrule86]

209. He is not winning in New Hampshire.

[Demsrule86]

208. I think Biden puts an end to this plan.

[Gothmog]

264. Not in the real world

There are too many real democrats who have long memories who will not forget or forgive

[AlexSFCA]

267. surely they will

cause we all know if bernie does win the nomination, 100% of dems will support him in the general. So the grudge is not that strong after all. Considering that most dems running this time adopted bernie’s political positions, it makes it even more plausible. By the way, we don’t yet know if Biden will be running. It is a very real possibility that he won’t. Would that make bernie’s win even more likely?
I think it is unhealthy to outright rule out a possibility or even a likelihood that bernie may secure the nomination. Better start weighing all options now to avoid divisions. All I can say is that all my Bernie supporting friends who annoyed me to no end in 2016, got reactivated again so I surely don’t want to relive 2016 drama with them again. Turns out they were correct about so many issues and the dangers of compramise. The reality is Bernie is much stronger now than he was in 2016. He is no longer facing a single viable contender, he is #1 in the polls right now among all dems who enetered the race.
Also, remember that Biden’s poll numbers are high right now buy they will likely go down if/when he starts campaigning. It has always happened to him, he could never get far in the process.

P.S. What’s with the nonsense, he is not a real democrat? Would you want him to run as independent? Would that help us in any way win in the general? Shouldn’t we be grateful he doesn’t?

[Gothmog]

268. I will support the nominee

sanders will not be the nominee with these unfavorability numbers. sanders is not electable

[democratisphere]

41. Simple Answer.

BS is not.

[YOHABLO]

50. Everything right now is speculation. Let's cross that road when we come to it.

[BlueFlorida]

53. I was a Hillary voter

and I'll NEVER vote for Bernie because of what I know he did.

I'll vote for him if he is the nominee but that ain't gonna happen.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

60. Maybe not you, but many will jump on the "Bernie bandwagon"

when it becomes clear he's running away with the nomination. It's only natural... most people want to be associated with a winner!!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[BlueFlorida]

65. ...

[lunamagica]

68. But you were always a Sanders supporter. You can't talk for Hillary supporters

[WeekiWater]

128. Why not. That seems to be what they are best at. NT

[Thekaspervote]

186. Runaway with the nomination? Naaa

[Gothmog]

265. No or few Clinton voters will support sanders during the primaries

A large number of real democrats have good memories and these real Democrats will not forgive or forget

[apcalc]

129. Agree. He will not be the nominee.

[dhol82]

54. Has he changed his party affiliation yet?

Can’t run as a Democrat unless you’re a Democrat.
Not that his supporters seem to care.

[Jarqui]

66. It's too early to be certain of much. A lot can happen.

A big thing is Biden. If Joe doesn't run, Bernie has quite an advantage. He has a lot of money and a sizable base to build up a lead. With the others diluting the vote, he might jump out.

If Joe runs, then maybe he gets the most but Bernie and his base take a hunk leaving the rest fighting over dwindling delegates.

From my top sentence, a lot can change with the upcoming debates. One or a handful will rise like cream to contended. i'm hoping for this because I would like us to have the candidate for change. If the GOP pull a swticheroo, we're in better shape for that.

The candidate who is going to decide it will probably be like what Trump & Obama were -media darlings for ratings.

I'm fighting for everyone but those who emerge with excitement, credibility, good messages to voters in the townhalls and speeches that fire people up. Those at the ones that I'm looking for. We have a number who might pull it off. No one will rub away with it - the media interest would wane so they'll mixed it up to sustain the ratings.

[R B Garr]

70. Agree with every word! This needs to be said.

This and much more actually, especially with his 3rd party voting staffers.

[vsrazdem]

76. The same way they got millions of Hillary voters to vote for Obama.

[BlueFlorida]

136. Obama didn't make Hillary lose

1. Hillary's campaign leaders didn't advocate voting for third party like Sirota, Gray and Turner.

2. Hillary ACTIVELY campaigned for Obama and had several joint appearances.

3. She didn't continue campaigning after it was mathematically certain that she lost.

4. Hillary didn't claim unfairness in losing and rile up supporters to mistrust and hate Obama.

5. Hillary may have lost but Obama was a Democrat - not "running as a Democrat" for the benefits of the party apparatus.

6. Obama's policies were rooted in reality with detailed policy proposals - not slogans, platitudes and promises of free stuff.

[comradebillyboy]

145. +++++++

[Thekaspervote]

187. +1000

[vsrazdem]

197. LOL

[vsrazdem]

199. You might want to check your facts, and stop living in a fantasy world.

Moreover, defections from a primary to general election are common. More voters went from Hillary Clinton to John McCain in 2008 than went from Sanders to Trump in 2016; about 13 percent of Trump’s 2016 voters also voted for Barack Obama in 2012.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/24/16194086/bernie-trump-voters-study

https://www.thenation.com/article/the-2008-democratic-primary-was-far-nastier-than-2016s/

[treestar]

262. +1 very good list

[Cha]

81. Too bad so many BS voters didn't vote for Hillary in the GE..

Link to tweet

Second, a lot of Bernie Sanders supporters weren’t big fans of Clinton. So Stein campaigning on the idea that Clinton and Trump were similar made it harder for Clinton to win over those voters — even if Sanders voters didn’t vote for Stein, they may have stayed home out of disgust.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/jill-stein-democratic-spoiler-or-scapegoat/

[vsrazdem]

200. Too bad so many Hillary voters didn't for for Obama in the GE

Moreover, defections from a primary to general election are common. More voters went from Hillary Clinton to John McCain in 2008 than went from Sanders to Trump in 2016; about 13 percent of Trump’s 2016 voters also voted for Barack Obama in 2012.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/24/16194086/bernie-trump-voters-study

[Cha]

224. That has nothing to do with the

shithole in the WH now.

[vsrazdem]

225. The implication is that Bernie voters cost Hillary the election, which is untrue.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/did-bernie-sanders-cost-hillary-clinton-the-presidency/

[Cha]

238. Jill Stein is now officially the Ralph Nader of 2016.

Link to tweet

Second, a lot of Bernie Sanders supporters weren’t big fans of Clinton. So Stein campaigning on the idea that Clinton and Trump were similar made it harder for Clinton to win over those voters — even if Sanders voters didn’t vote for Stein, they may have stayed home out of disgust.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/jill-stein-democratic-spoiler-or-scapegoat/

[betsuni]

83. With slogans.

If those darn Hillary voters would do this: "We have got to look at candidates, you know, not by the color of their skin, not by their sexual orientation or their gender and not by their age"; stop nitpicking about policy details, the policies that require enough votes to be passed into legislation (Republicans will totally be reasonable and vote with Democrats if Bernie wins the presidency). Remember, everyone is corrupt, you must be pessimistic and angry but always lash out in the wrong direction. Forget history before 2015. Listen to the slogans, repeat the slogans...

Just in case:

[quakerboy]

84. Same way any other candidate would have to

I mean, not a single candidate out there, announced or unannounced can win without convincing a majority of delegates. And with somewhere between a 16 to 50 way split, thats gonna be a challenge. If I were in that field, I guess I'd rather start with the biggest group of support than the smallest.

And equally, if not more importantly than the primary vote.. Any one of these candidates needs to win something approaching 100% of all of those primary voters, plus a whole hell of a lot more folks over to vote for them in the general.

[pnwmom]

85. Here's the difference:

I think Bernie's already hit peak Bernie. There's little reason to think he'll get more than what he managed to get last time, against a single opponent. Hillary voters, who numbered 4 million more than Bernie voters, are going to be looking for someone else.

With the newer candidates, they don't have nearly as much name recognition -- yet. We don't know how they'll do when the debates and primaries start. A dark horse could overtake and surpass Bernie. It's happened many times in the past.

[quakerboy]

87. Then you have no worries

Sit back, enjoy the ride and wait till bernie loses the primary and we pick our candidate, dark horse or other. Maybe Biden will come out of nowhere and sweep us all off our feet!

Unless you are concerned that a bunch of those who voted for Hillary might in fact switch over and chose Bernie this time, or that there will be 4 more years of those pesky youth folks who basically carried Bernie as far as he got last time who are now able to, which in theory might be enough to win him a primary (roughly 4 million people turning 18 each year, 4 years=16m, 76% register to vote, 45% Dem, thats your 4m right there). And further, unless you dont like that possibility, in which case, lets have lots and lots of "no way can he win the primary" posts on DU!!

[pnwmom]

88. My concern is that it will be like last time.

Bernie supporters will have false hopes till the bitter end. After someone else wins at the convention, a significant group of Bernie supporters will decide he was "robbed" because of "corruption" in the party, and that they're not going to vote for whoever the nominee is.

[quakerboy]

244. Since that didnt actually happen last time

I guess thats not much of a worry for me.

[pnwmom]

245. Actually, it did. There were protesters at the convention, who had arrived there

still hoping maybe they could change delegates' minds. And when they didn't succeed, a certain fraction didn't vote for the Democratic nominee. That mattered in an election that was only decided by 80,000 votes across three states.

[quakerboy]

246. Except it didnt

Protests yes. People who hoped for a last minute change of heart/mind/influence yeah. Democrats turning against the nominee en masse.. Not so much.

Trump lost about as many Republicans as Hillary did Democrats. The big shift in the states we lost was independents. Luckily for us Trump has been an ill will machine, so we've got a reasonable chance to regain many of those votes.

But yeah. Lets keep blaming fellow Democrats who came along grudgingly and who virtually all ended up voting for the Democratic nominee even if it wasn't the one they wanted. That should help us win the next one.

[pnwmom]

247. Hillary would have lost fewer Democrats if some of them hadn't walked away after the convention.

It sure didn't help that Bernie people like Nina Turner announced that they were supporting Jill Stein instead.

And guess what? For 2020 Bernie's re-hired Nina Turner. He must have been very pleased with her.

(And it is completely irrelevant how many R's failed to vote for Trump. Bernie's actions had no impact on them, but he did affect the turnout for Hillary.)

[quakerboy]

269. I doubt even one was lost after the convention

Anyone who walked away after the convention was NEVER going to have voted for Hillary. Regardless of the existence of Bernie or any other politician.

We didnt lose based on Democrats. We lost based on Independants. We lost based on Russian interference. We lost based on Misogyny. We lost based on 30 years of virulant, hardcore anti-clinton propeganda that we knowingly and willfully walked into. We did not lose based on Democrats.

[pnwmom]

270. Then why did Bernie campaign for Hillary at all if he didn't think it would make a difference?

He didn't campaign for her at all in July or August, and he only had two events in September (because he was too busy writing the best selling book that just had to be published the day after the election) but he had multiple events in October. Why bother if his campaigning made no difference?

[Hortensis]

86. He can't. There's a huge difference between those who

Last edited Wed Apr 10, 2019, 04:01 AM - Edit history (3)

are drawn to the resentful negativism and hostility of populist messages and those who are drawn to candidates focusing on positive plans to fix problems and advance society. Bernie or Hillary, and notably, Hillary's principled and goal-focused liberalism won big, even with the large conservative spoiler vote for him in many states and with Russia and the Republicans investing heavily in his victory.

Yes, Sanders says he has plans also, but his are constantly used as delivery systems for attacks on other Democrats. Whatever's going on in his head, no amount of common purpose in his avowed plans causes him to see other Democrats as allies to join with to advance our nation.

This huge, defining difference will show more clearly as time goes on. I believe just coverage of the shocking behaviors of many of those drawn to him, which was light in 2016 compared to what it's going to be, will enlighten a lot of people. It's not just that he wouldn't control the "lock her up-level" antagonism toward Democrats in those who listened to him then, he couldn't have if he'd tried. And he won't be able to now.

[Tom Rinaldo]

94. Same as it ever was. Picking up enough support from others as they drop out

No matter who is currently considered a favorite it is an uphill battle for any of our candidates to emerge with a majority of delegates.

The odds literally do not favor any one of them winning. It is just a matter of who faces more or less steep odds to do so. No candidate's supporters form a monolithic bloc. There were some Hillary supporters, for example, who backed her over Bernie in 2016 because they feared Bernie could not beat Trump, even though they were more drawn to Bernie on most issues.

The person who wins the nomination will start with their own base, and then pick up some support from those who had them as their second choice, then some from those who had them as their third choice and so on as candidates are eliminated. When it gets down to two or at most three viable options opinions will be strongly influenced by who appears to have the momentum at that stage. In other words who has the look and feel of a potential winner. Right now that could be practically any of our potential candidates. Come late Spring 2020, when the field is tightly narrowed, the main and practically only consideration could well end up being "who looks like they can defeat Trump?"

[RobertDevereaux]

99. Thanks for your posting, Tom!

[George II]

96. With all the qualified candidates out there he's going to have a difficult time...

...winning any caucus or primary.

Wait until Joe Biden enters the race, he's already double digits ahead of Sanders. And now, with the revelation that Sanders became a millionaire via is first run, he probably lose many of the idealist supporters he had.

[Baltimike]

98. He REALLY should not have left the Democratic Party after 2016...but he did

and his ties to creepy Devine puts me on the fence about him AT ALL.

If he doesn't register as a Democrat, he doesn't get my vote. plain and simple

[Mr Tibbs]

110. He joined the party again

There is no need to register to be a Democrat

[Baltimike]

122. He did? When? nt

[Mr Tibbs]

123. March 5th

[Demsrule86]

210. But he ran as a Democrat for the Senate and then changed back after he won...

He is already set to run as 2024 as an independent.

[Baltimike]

248. It really does feel like he was 'kicking us when we were down" when he left in 2016. nt

[Demsrule86]

266. Yes. I will never get over the 16 election and hope we can stop fascist Trump.

[Cha]

242. It's now convenient for him

to register "Dem".. he'll go back to being an I when he loses.

[Mr Tibbs]

100. It's about the policy

It's always been about policy

[KPN]

101. I don't know that he does think that, and he certainly won't.

Personally, I think Bernie's window is closing, but I like seeing him at the table because of the focus he brings to progressive economics. Let's wait and see how the first several primaries go before getting concerned about a brokered convention, shall we?

[MH1]

104. Do you think winning the nomination is his goal?

I no longer think that.

Or, he's in Trump territory for egotism. (for the reason you posted. Winning is almost certainly out of reach for him.)

[LongtimeAZDem]

105. +1

[Mr Tibbs]

111. Yet he is Miles Ahead of every other declared candidate

I think the real issue will be, if and when he wins the nomination how will his detractors react.

[LongtimeAZDem]

113. If he gets the nomination, I'll work to see that he wins. But, I'll do everything I can to prevent

him from getting the nomination.

[MH1]

115. I'll vote for the nominee in the general election. It won't be Sanders. nt

[apcalc]

127. Miles ahead?

By what measurement?

[JI7]

135. he isn't miles ahead, And an undeclared is ahead of him

[namahage]

204. Hopefully better than his supporters did in 2016.

And probably better than his 2020 support and the “sore winner” attitude many of them project.

Seriously. If you’re that far ahead why not try to boost up your potential VP and Cabinet choices than try to laser focus on and smear every challenger that comes close?

[Mr Tibbs]

133. He's the frontrunner

😁

[revmclaren]

137. Sorry, no he's not.

A nondeclared is.

When Biden enters the race, all bets are off.



Edit: because of Biden' strength even with all the attacks, I am seriously tending to change my candidate choice to him.

ONLY!!! 2019 and beyond.

[roody]

106. Attend one of his events, and

you will find out.

[LongtimeAZDem]

109. This was the argument last time, but his events never translated into votes.

[pnwmom]

152. His events were covered on TV. Most of us don't need to see any more of them.

The people who love him will vote for him again without needing to attend a single rally (even if they do.)

The people who were turned off by his negativity will be looking elsewhere -- to Booker, Harris, Warren, Inslee, Castro, etc.

[hughee99]

107. In this primary, how many are planning to vote for Hillary? Nt

[melman]

138. Good question

[pnwmom]

177. The real question is how many of Hillary primary voters will switch to Bernie, allowing him

to win next time?

The answer is: almost zero. There are plenty of other excellent alternatives who didn't do things like re-hire Nina Turner, who advocated for Jill Stein in October 2016.

[hughee99]

189. I didn't think he would win last time, and I don't think he'll win this time.

And while he may not be able to get many former Clinton voters to support him, I am pretty sure our nominee will need his supporters to win in the GE. Just like I said in 2016, Bernie isn’t going to win the primary, the only goal of the other candidates should be not to go out of their way to specifically piss off his supporters, because you’ll eventually need their support. A large enough number of his supporters are not going to support someone whose supporters argue that they or Bernie are racists, sexists, liars, etc...

Much in the same way you suggest Clinton supporters would never support him.

[pnwmom]

190. The problem is that last time he led his followers to think he was going to win

all the way up to the convention -- despite not having enough PLEDGED delegates. His plan then was for superdelegates to switch from Hillary to him -- which of course would never have happened. And the result was many of his supporters came to the convention and started protesting, because they thought they'd somehow been robbed.

If Bernie continues, the best he'll do is a plurality, not a majority, and the delegates will coalesce around someone "neutral" -- like Biden. (Not one of my favorites, either.) And many Bernie people will be unhappy and resentful. Again.

[hughee99]

191. His supporters thought they were getting robbed long before the convention, and

Last edited Thu Apr 11, 2019, 01:31 AM - Edit history (2)

suggesting they were racists and sexists (as some Clinton supporters did) certainly didn't help when it came time to get them to turn out for the GE. Bernie will have enough money to stay until the end if he wants to, but he'll never be able to get a majority, as you said.

[Ace Rothstein]

130. He doesn't really need to win over Hillary voters in the primary.

If he can maintain his 2016 voters and Hillary's 2016 voters are split among a few candidates, he'll end up on top. It probably won't be enough to clinch pre-convention but if the party nominates someone else over him, say hello to four more years of Trump.

[pnwmom]

158. Wrong. He can't win with just the plurality he got last time. It wasn't enough then

and it won't be enough in 2020, because the winner has to have a MAJORITY of delegates at the convention.

So what happens when he goes to the convention with his minority of delegates? He won't win on the first ballot. Maybe no one will have a majority. And then the superdelegates get to vote, and all the pledged Democrats (the ones for Harris, Warren, etc.) can change their votes and support someone else. Do you think they're going to pick Bernie over an actual Democrat?

Yeah, right.

[Ace Rothstein]

159. If Bernie has the highest delegate count then he should get the nomination.

Giving it to someone else would be a guarantee of 4 more years of Trump.

[pnwmom]

160. That's not how it works. It won't go to someone who only has 30 or 40% of the delegates

from the primaries.

It will go to whoever can get 51% of the delegates at the convention.

And Bernie is doing no outreach to actual Democrats to help him get over the top.

What is most likely to happen is that the person Bernie would least like to win -- the most conservative candidate, Biden -- will be chosen at the convention.

He's not my favorite, but he is a LOT more likely than Bernie.

[melman]

167. "actual Democrats"

[pnwmom]

171. Actual Democrats don't file as Independents for the Senate in 2024 at the same time

that they file to run as Democrats for President in 2020.

He must think he's very clever.

[melman]

185. But you weren't referring to him

when you said "doing no outreach to actual Democrats"

If we look at the whole thread, we see the OP says "Since 2016, he's made almost no outreach efforts to Hillary supporters" and "given his lack of attention to the concerns of Hillary voters."

It seems safe to assume this what you mean by "actual Democrats"

So people that supported Hillary in the primary are actual Democrats, and people who didn't are not. Is this what you really mean? Sure reads that way.

[Thekaspervote]

188. Thx.. so true

[Ace Rothstein]

192. That would ensure a Trump victory and tear the party apart.

You'd have millions of people staying at home come November.

[pnwmom]

193. It's looking like a likely possibility. That's why I was grateful that Hillary wasn't running again

and I wish Bernie wasn't either. He's at peak popularity right now and he's never going to get the majority of Dems to support him. They supported Hillary strongly last time and they're done with him.

[FBaggins]

202. You keep confusing delegates with voters

A candidate can easily end up with a majority of delegates without ever getting a majority of voters is the field is large

That’s essentially how Trump got the GOP nomination.

[LongtimeAZDem]

214. This is why Superdelegates are necessary

[FBaggins]

215. They certainly helped Clinton lock things up early last time around

But they not longer play the same role. Roughly 2/3 of them will be committed with the state's primary/caucus results.

[LongtimeAZDem]

219. Not going to get lured into "re-fighting the primary"

[FBaggins]

222. I have no intention of re-fighting anything

It's simply a change in the nomination process that is relevant to the conversation. Superdelegates don't play anywhere near as large a role as they did in 2016.

Additionally, without a single established-name-in-the-party candidate, those remaining independent super-delegates are far less likely to align behind one candidate. Without a presumed winner, most of them will hold back until there is a clear frontrunner (well into the primaries).

[pnwmom]

229. There is no reason to think that Bernie will. nt

[FBaggins]

232. I don't think he will either

But it certainly isn’t for the nonsensical reasons laid out above. It’s because his own success in activating the more progressive elements in the country (and Clinton’s failures) have resulted in a flood of solid progressives into the race. He doesn’t stick out among them in the way that he did in 2016. If you’re more progressive than Clinton’s (and now Biden’s) historical positions, you no longer have just one alternative. You have several.

[leftieNanner]

153. I can't stand Bernie!

Sorry Bernie supporters, but I can't.

I seriously doubt if he will be able to win the primary, so I will hang my hat on that.

[Eliot Rosewater]

226. This is likely his last chance at the WH, i am sure he will run 3rd party if he doesnt get D

nomination

willing to bet on it even

[leftieNanner]

227. Well that would suck!

And I hope you are wrong!

[Eliot Rosewater]

228. Oh yeah, I am not wrong. Sadly.

[TheFarseer]

156. A few points

Last time he started with almost zero name recognition.

There was only one establishment candidate. This time they will split the vote.

Ideas like Medicare for All, $15/hr minimum wage free college and getting money out of politics is more mainstream.

Some voters in some states had to get registered to vote way ahead of time and couldn’t make the deadline. This time they’ll be ready. Not saying he’ll win for sure but the idea Bernie has no chance is wishful thinking by some of you.

[pnwmom]

161. Now he's got a ton of name recognition, and voters have already made up their minds about him,

and he still isn't at the point where he could get a majority. Meanwhile, there are some younger candidates who could significantly cut into his numbers, including Mayor Pete, Julian, and Beto. (Not everyone who backed Bernie last time loved all his positions. Some of them just hated Hillary, but she's not in the race this time.)

And he lost to Hilary by 4 million votes. He's not going to get millions of Hillary voters turning into Bernie converts. They're done with him.

[TheFarseer]

179. If you said

Warren is going to cut into his numbers, I might agree, but Beto or Castro? I don’t see it. He consistently polls in the top few candidates. I think you don’t like him and you are projecting. As for me, I haven’t decided who is my favorite but I do like Bernie.

[pnwmom]

180. Some of Bernie voters just didn't like Hillary. There's no telling who they might vote for,

given a non-binary choice.

I notice you left off Mayor Pete and Gov. Jay Inslee. They're both strong progressives.

[TheFarseer]

196. Some just didn't like Hillary

That’s very true. I like Inslee too but I wonder if he will get much traction. Never say never, but I don’t think mayor Pete will end up being a factor.

[cynatnite]

174. If he's the nominee, I will support him...

That's where I stand.

[pnwmom]

175. The OP was about the primaries, not the general. n/t

[cynatnite]

178. I was trying to be polite. :) n/t

[Politicub]

203. Does anyone have data that shows how many people Bernie is attracting?

Some of those folks will be Hillary voters.

But he may not pick them up in the primaries, though.

I think we'll all get in line behind the Dem nominee in the general, though.

[Apple Fritter]

216. I agree. The short answer is...no they won't vote for him.

But Bernie has got lots of support and large group. I think there are plenty of alternatives for centrists, moderates, or Dems who don't fit into the Bernie branch. So...like yeah. I have no idea how the primary election will play out but no worries we have plenty of opportunists to see the candidates do different things and speak together. It's going to be a beautiful political marathon.

[Gothmog]

237. Polls show Bernie Sanders' popularity among all voters is plummeting

Link to tweet

One of the arguments Bernie Sanders' fans made during the 2016 Democratic primary was that he was more electable than Hillary Clinton. His favorable ratings with the general electorate were far higher than Hillary Clinton's. Indeed, Sanders maintained fairly high favorable ratings with all voters as late as 2018.

Sanders' popularity among all voters seems to be declining considerably in the last few months, however.

Our new CNN poll puts Sanders favorable rating at 46% compared to an unfavorable rating of 45% among registered voters. This is only the latest poll to have Sanders at basically even in his net favorability rating (favorable-unfavorable). A Quinnipiac University poll from late December gave the Vermont senator a net favorability of just +2 points. An average of all recent polls put Sanders' net favorability at about -1 points.

[Gothmog]

217. There are a large number of real democrats who will not support sanders for that reason

There are a large number of real democrats who have long memories and will not forgive or forget. sanders will not be able to get the support of these voters.

BTW, I was at the National Convention where these protests took place. The booing of Congressman John Lewis was a planned stunt that the Clinton campaign found about and warned her delegates 20 to 30 minutes in advance. According to my whip, sanders was asked to stop this stunt and declined

[Stuart G]

231. k and r nt

[Paladin]

235. If we end up with a trump-Sanders election, Bernie will get my vote.

Short of that, to hell with him. Same for the loutish segment of his supporters, who made DU such a miserable place during the 2016 campaign.

[Gothmog]

240. The Russian effort to target Bernie Sanders supporters in 2016 was more than previously known

sanders did nothing or very little to stop the efforts of Russians to use him against Clinton

Link to tweet

[SFnomad]

243. The Russian push for BS won't be anywhere near as successful this time.

Rather than have a single opponent that has been vilified by RepubliCONs for decades, we have numerous candidate that people are more than willing to vote for. This means that BS won't get anywhere near the traction he got last time around as the "opposition" opponent.

[samnsara]

249. i kind of felt yelled at by him during the last election....

[ebbie15644]

258. He won't win PA in the general against Trump and

I don't believe he'll win Florida or Ohio. What is his path to victory?

[pamdb]

260. Bernie

I don't want Bernie, he's too damn old. In spite of having voted for him in the michigan primary (something my husband regrets)
I don't want him again. I want someone younger, like mayor Pete, or Kamala Harris or Amy Kloboucher, Would have loved Sherrod Brown. I'm not crazy about Joe Biden, wish he would have run last time, he would have beat pumpkin head.

Having said that, I, of course will vote for whomever is nominated and who has the best chance of beating that big orange thing currently squatting in the WH. I like Joe Biden, even though he's old he somehow SEEMS younger. I see Elizabeth Warren as
a cabinet member. I think she's great but she has this, maybe because she was a professor, of lecturing and sort of instructing
people, which rubs them the wrong way. And my husband is a college professor.

If Biden does get the nomination (hell, at this point he hasn't even declared) her must know he has to pick a woman. Amy or Kamala, take your pick.

But no more Bernie. I still remember how he wouldn't concede (like Hillary did in 2008) and kept pushing, even talking about a brokered convention, and when he finally endorsed her at the convention, the shot of him sitting in a row seat glowering at everyone really turned me off. I feel he could have done a lot more to help Hillary get elected. His time is over. If it wasn't for the fact that maybe he could beat pumpkin head, I would say Biden's time is over as well.

I'm 68, I'll be dead in probably less than 20 years (86 sounds like a nice number) it's not my world anymore. It belongs to the 20 and 30 and 40 year olds. I would love Amy and Pete or Kamala and Pete.

[KayF]

271. a lot of people voted for her due to perceived electablity

voting for Bernie seemed like too big of a risk.

I think more than winning over Hillary supporters, the problem will be getting people to think he's the most electable.

[Gothmog]

272. From the Hoarse Whisperer

Link to tweet

?s=20

[Gothmog]

275. Washingont Post-Can Bernie Sanders really win over Trump voters?

sanders is claiming that he can win over trump voters. There are good reasons to doubt this claim https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/can-bernie-sanders-really-win-over-trump-voters/2019/04/14/43744f10-5c65-11e9-9625-01d48d50ef75_story.html?utm_term=.ff3386b1b77e

Link to tweet

In Wisconsin and Michigan, Democrats nominated more traditional candidates for governor and captured both seats from Republicans. Some Democrats say a similar model is the path to victory in 2020.

Framing Sanders as the face of the Democratic Party, as the Fox appearance could do, will help Trump rather than hurt him, they contend.....

Sanders campaigned for Democrats in the Midwest several times in the run-up to the 2018 midterms, but most of his endorsed candidates lost. Kansas’s Brent Welder and Iowa’s Pete D’Alessandro, for example, were defeated in their House primaries by more moderate Democrats who went on to win in November.

Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.), who faces reelection in a ruby red state, said his constituents want a consensus builder at the top of the ticket, “someone who can govern, who can reach across, not only across the aisle, but within the various groups, within the Democratic Party.” He declined to discuss whether Sanders qualifies.

[NastyRiffraff]

292. He won't

There are too many good Democratic candidates to choose from. Who needs Bernie?

[Gothmog]

293. I doubt that sanders will convert many Clinton voters due to stunts like this

Link to tweet