Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumWhat happens if Biden doesn't run?
538 looks at an (older) poll which asked that question. In short, a third of Bidens supporters would go to Bernie, more than a quarter to Beto, then one sixth (5%) to Harris, Booker, Buttigieg and Warren. The rest is distributed throughout the field.
Change Research Poll
March 31 - April 4
Joe Biden 32%
Bernie Sanders 14%
Kamala Harris 10%
Cory Booker 9%
Beto ORourke 9%
Stacey Abrams 7%
Pete Buttigieg 7%
Elizabeth Warren 6%
Without Joe Biden
Bernie Sanders 24%
Beto ORourke 16%
Kamala Harris 15%
Cory Booker 12%
Pete Buttigieg 12%
Elizabeth Warren 11%
Stacey Abrams 9%
https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/2020-election/
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Shell_Seas
(3,319 posts)I know as lot of people that hate him and not even one person that likes him.
I live in Texas. So any polls represent the Southern States or are they all up north?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TCJ70
(4,387 posts)...Hes lost two previous primaries, was a relatively unseen VP (at least by me), has a history of gaffes and other negative events (Anita Hill). Also, in 2016 there was a phenomenon of Obama-Trump voters...do we really think putting his VP up front is going to be a good way to bring those voters back?
With Bernie, hes pushing hard left. Thats what he really has going for him. Why support someone who wants to start at the middle and probably end up on the right when you can start farther left and probably end up in the middle/left? Im basically split between Warren/Bernie at this point. I dont buy the we must be center to win bullshit anymore.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bonniebgood
(937 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
CentralMass
(15,265 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
woofless
(2,670 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
artislife
(9,497 posts)I just don't see how that voting for Biden isn't running out of FEAR. If anything, Obama should have taught this party that people respond to HOPE.
All of our mythology is about individuals overcoming adversity, not giving up and pushing through. Vote for a candidate because he is so bland (trying to search for a word that describes his appeal--obviously, he is not on my primary list) that we will -shrug- go ahead - and vote for instead of rally around and go forward with, just seems like a losing move.
It is not a vote for anything. I don't see him fighting for anything, just trying to stop something. We live in a time that our young NEED someone who will fight to go forward and CHANGE the course we are on.
I have been worried about the Climate since '91. I chose to live in WA because of water and a kind of cool music scene. And trees. Lots of trees. I have worked with helping the Cascades and other local nature, along with net neutrality and lots of social injustice groups.
I don't think Biden is more concerned for the legacy people will be living through, just a legacy that will be stored in a digital file on the internet somewhere.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TCJ70
(4,387 posts)...hes seen, for some reason, as a safe vote. I dont know anything about what hed actually push for in terms of policy. He doesnt have a campaign yet.
Thats part of the reason I havent decided on anyone yet. Theres still a lot to learn about everyone.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
artislife
(9,497 posts)But my list so far includes forward movement. Bold candidates. I am also waiting to see how they all proceed in the coming months.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
BlueStater
(7,596 posts)He'll be almost 80 years old by the time of the next presidential inauguration, has a long history of sticking his foot in his mouth, and has made some stupendously awful votes in his Senate career. He voted for the Iraq war, the Patriot Act, against bankruptcy for student debt, etc.
He has to be doing so well in the polls based entirely on name recognition and people not actually being familiar with what he did as a Senator. He has no strengths as a candidate besides that.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
BlueWI
(1,736 posts)While Biden has some experiences that are unique as VP, Inslee has unique experience as a successful chief executive of Washington state and a long record of progressive policy. But some prefer name recognition and low risk approaches, despite 2016 and the poor recent record of former vice presidents in presidential campaigns.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Dr Hobbitstein
(6,568 posts)Every single liberal/Democrat that I know supports Bernie.
In 2016, I was the odd one out (I was an HRC supporter) amongst my group of friends (about 150 or so people in their early 20s-mid 40s, local music scene).
They are all still behind Bernie.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Indygram
(2,113 posts)And no one I know likes Bernie. They just hate Trump. There are lots of Trump supporters in my area but I only had one friend who was and I am so disgusted with her that I don't speak to her anymore. I think he's higher in the polls only because he was the only other name people remember who was against Trump besides Hillary.
Once more people are paying attention I think you will see his numbers drop off drastically. He has a certain amount of people who won't ever consider anyone else, but much of his support now is just name recognition.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Cha
(295,929 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
RazBerryBeret
(3,075 posts)I'm Tammy, I live in Ohio, and I supported Bernie in '16 and I support him now. So now you know ONE person that likes him! He is Yugely popular to young and old alike. I used to listen to him when he did a hourly "Brunch with Bernie" on the Thom Hartmann show around 2004. He would say things that I thought were crazy/radical, and then explain how they would happen. His idealogy hasn't changed much since then and I appreciate that.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
LovingA2andMI
(7,006 posts)Just 1200. Nowhere near 11,000 he got in 2015 in Washtenaw County, MI.
This poll is a lie. Bernie does NOT have this much support and 538 needs to do better with their polling.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Voltaire2
(12,632 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
LovingA2andMI
(7,006 posts)Bernie still got 1200 in Warren County, Michigan recently compared with 11,000 in Washtenaw County in 2015. Reads like your Undecided is well....maybe not so much. Either way, Bernie is way likely NOT going to win the Nomination. Tootles!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demit
(11,238 posts)No reason to slag posters or poll aggregators.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,110 posts)Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
thesquanderer
(11,955 posts)In a way, it's surprising that Sanders get as many Biden voters as he does, because the two are pretty much at opposite extremes of the field, politically. Biden is the leader of the moderate, establishment side of the party; Sanders is the leader of the leftist/socialist, anti-establishment side of the party. Politically, there are numerous candidates who are closer to Biden than Sanders is, and would be more logical second choices.
I think there are two things helping Sanders here. One is that those who prefer a more moderate candidate may be splitting their votes among a greater number of choices. But I think the bigger factor is probably name recognition. There is a comfort level in going with the "security" of the big name, even if you'd prefer different positions. Ironically, this worked against Sanders in 2016, but would work in his favor this time, if Biden didn't run.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
UniteFightBack
(8,231 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to InAbLuEsTaTe (Reply #2)
BannonsLiver This message was self-deleted by its author.
lark
(23,006 posts)I voted for Bernie in 2016 primaries and would not vote for him the primaries now unless it was just between him & Gillibrand & Tulsi. I think Bernie and Joe - other than being older white men - have the most differences in philosophy and tone than any of the other candidates so am surprised that this says 1/3 will switch to Bernie. That doesn't seem right to me either, only I think it would be far far less. Where would they go, don't know? This Biden person would probably vote Mayor Pete or Liz Warren without Joe being in the race.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kath2
(3,054 posts)But another part realizes that HRC won the popular vote by 3 million and Dems should be out in force in 2020 to end this madness.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
crazytown
(7,277 posts)tariffs and all. Some will stay home, others will want revenge. Trumps approval is 22% underwater in Wisconsin.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Trump's economic policies have had negative effects on the middle class. And I think more and more average people are getting disgusted with the racism, sexism and embarrassing spoiled rich brat behavior.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Response to Kath2 (Reply #3)
BannonsLiver This message was self-deleted by its author.
FBaggins
(26,697 posts)Bidens strength in most polls is name recognition... but his ability to actually get through the primaries is comparatively moderate positions in a field of further-left candidates that will split the base. Though Bernie is at the other end of the democratic spectrum, hes the next-best-know.
My guess is that if this were toward the end of the primaries and Biden were to drop out... his voters would go to someone else. Likely whichever establishment candidate was closest to the top.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demit
(11,238 posts)We don't know what ideas Biden will propose, because he's not actually running yet. But it's accepted that he is on the conservative end of liberal. Bernie has made bold liberal proposals.
I don't see what else beside name recognition they have in common that would make Bernie a substitute for Biden.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
crazytown
(7,277 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demit
(11,238 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
At this point, I think there are many without a favorite who do not want to appear like they are not informed - so they answer the first name they can think of. Asking second favorite is even harder. Consider that 46% of those of us posting in the primaries forum of DU are listed as undecided and we are likely more interested than the average person.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Lazy Daisy
(928 posts)He's just waiting to announce.
What your thoughts on why he's waiting depends on whether you support his run or not.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
crazytown
(7,277 posts)I think thats whatever missteps he may make, Biden will be a formidable competitor.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demit
(11,238 posts)He won't take super-PAC money and he's not adept at raising money from small donors through social media the way the younger candidates are.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(91,967 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
crazytown
(7,277 posts)Defeatism. Anything could happen between now and Election Day. Trump could have a (fatal) stroke for example. Struggling for words, he may have had some minor ones already.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
FBaggins
(26,697 posts)Im sure that well see no end of but my preferred candidate is the only one who can defeat Trump over the next year or so. Electability is always an issue in primaries, but it only sells if its implied that the other choice cant win. Its a tough sell when there are 20 alternatives.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
crazytown
(7,277 posts)Then in September the economy fell through the floor and it was all academic.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(91,967 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(91,967 posts)general election, and in order to do that they need to be able to capture some red and purple states.
From the top two leading candidates, Biden and Sanders, if Biden decides not to run, I believe the odds go up for a brokered convention, and the odds favor Sanders being the nominee in that case. I do not believe that Sanders would be able to capture any red states, and have a difficult time with purple states in the general election. Because of the electoral college, we need someone who can get some red states, and I frankly don't believe Sanders can do that.
Needless to say it is just an opinion, and could be wrong.
I am from California so it isn't going to matter, we are going to vote for whoever the Democratic nominee is, but California is not representative of the rest of the country I believe
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(91,967 posts)Sanders will have a very difficult time in purple states, and red states is practically nill
The country unfortunately hasnt changed that much since McGovern ran, and in fact has gotten worse
We believe what we like to believe because we talk to like minded people. Hopefully I am wrong, and the country is much more liberal than I perceive
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
thesquanderer
(11,955 posts)Let's assume that virtually everyone who voted for Hillary last time votes for whoever the Dem candidate is this time. I think that's pretty likely, because Trump has not increased his appeal to those who didn't vote for him in 2016. I find it hard to imagine many 2016 Hillary voters switching to Trump in 2020. The only risk here, as I see it, is if many stay home altogether, if they really dislike the Dem too. But even then, many people disliked both candidates in 2016, too. We're starting from a base point of having run someone who had high negatives to begin with. So I think we're almost certain to get every state Hillary got.
So then the question is, who picks up MI, WI, and PA? (Or possibly some other combination of Trump states.) Yes, I think Biden can do it. But I think numerous others can as well. (Heck, I think Sanders could probably have done it last time.)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(91,967 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
thesquanderer
(11,955 posts)...whether with Sanders or other likely contenders?
Since I feel the answer is "none" (for the reasons I explained), then the question comes down to who can have a good shot at picking up WI/MI/PA (i.e. the most likely to be flippable). I think Biden and Sanders both do that, as can others.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(91,967 posts)Last edited Sun Apr 14, 2019, 01:41 PM - Edit history (1)
personally do not believe he can capture any red states.
It is not comparable to 2016, because the 10% of Sanders supporters who refused to vote for the Democratic nominee in 2016, won't occur in 2020, at least I hope not, and that all Democrats will vote for the Democratic nominee in 2020 no mater who it is.
The problems shouldn't be MI or PA. Not sure about WI, that is a flip of a coin.
While all states are critical, the most important ones will be Florida and Ohio, and that is what it will come down to in my view.
I simply believe Biden has the best chance out of all our candidates in those states, and red states such as North Carolina and Virginia.
I think Sanders has the worst chance in my view.
I think the other potential Democratic candidates can do it except for Gabbard and Gilibrand, but it will be a steeper hill for them to climb
Anything can happen though
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
thesquanderer
(11,955 posts)re:
You always lose some Democrats to the opposition. Clinton got 89% of the Dem vote in 2016, Obama got 89% in 2008 and 92% in 2012 (when he had the advantage of incumbency). So expect to lose about 10% of them no matter what, that's not a Sanders-specific issue. In fact, many of the Sanders supporters who didn't vote for Clinton weren't Dems in the first place, many were independents. So they were not even Democratic "defectors."
The key to winning isn't getting more Dems to vote for the Dem nominee (about 90% of them will no matter what)... it's getting more of the independents to vote for the Dem nominee. And that actually plays to one of Sanders' strengths.
Would Sanders flip any red states? Maybe not. But even if he just holds the same states Hillary won, and adds the working-class winnable MI/WI/PA, he's there. I really feel confident that both he and Biden could do that, they both have working class appeal.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(91,967 posts)those states
Much of that working class you are referring to voted for Reagan over Carter, and yes, they are paying the price for that, but I do not think lessons are learned
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Lazy Daisy
(928 posts)There are other candidates quite capable of beating Trump. Myself, I think Biden isn't one of them. But we all have our opinions.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(91,967 posts)has to be someone who can take some red and purple states because of the electoral college
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BlueStater
(7,596 posts)Sorry, just not seeing a nearly 80-year-old gaffe machine that voted for the Iraq war as the savior America needs.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)NONE OF THEM.
And America doesn't need one. They need a return from the land of the crazy racist.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Indygram
(2,113 posts)Heck, it could even end up being Beto if Biden does run. Those are my top two but I actually like Beto better after giving it more thought and listening to him. Here's why...
We all know Trump is going to try to make 2020 about immigration and the border. Beto grew up in a border city, still lives in a border city and he knows more than anyone else running about the real impact what Trump is trying to do will have on not just the border towns and states but the economy as a whole, etc. Beto is extremely charismatic, is masterful at framing an issue in a way that makes sense to people, he is so genuine, listens and is completely unscripted. He does not poll on issues in order to try to twist himself into a pretzel when stating his positions on an issue. He just states his positions. When he makes a mistake he owns it, admits it and takes responsibility and moves on. He is very positive and hopeful and has a message of unity. He doesn't attack or speak badly of groups of voters. He wants to listen to what they have to say and talk to them. Beto was also just thoroughly vetted in a high stakes race that got lots of national attention.
If Biden is the nominee I'll definitely support him because I like him lots. I like Beto more, though. I think he's best on the border and immigration and that's the message we need to beat Trump on.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
samnsara
(17,572 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
FailureToCommunicate
(13,989 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Bayard
(21,807 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MineralMan
(146,192 posts)I can't see that happening, frankly.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
quickesst
(6,280 posts)....who will his supporters turn to?
Short answer: Whoever Joe Biden endorses and campaigns for.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(91,967 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
quickesst
(6,280 posts).....but if I apply even a small portion of logic to my argument it is easy to come to the conclusion Biden supporters would choose the candidate who's platform and guiding principles most clearly mirror his own. I feel confident that if Joe Biden does not run, he will apply that same logic in choosing who to support and campaign for. Why wouldn't he? Why wouldn't they?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(91,967 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
quickesst
(6,280 posts).... And I gave my opinion. I do have every confidence that Joe will run, so I don't understand the underlying hostility. My preference to win the presidency is showing up on my posts, isn't it? Big letters that say:
BIDEN
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(91,967 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
quickesst
(6,280 posts)Why the underlying hostility?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(91,967 posts)as rudeness. I definitely did not mean it to come across like that.
Sorry
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
quickesst
(6,280 posts)I will bear it in mind on future exchanges. No harm, no worries, no foul.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(91,967 posts)Thanks
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BlueFlorida
(1,532 posts)Not even 1% of them would go to Bernie Sanders.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bloom
(11,635 posts)for people who want to vote for old white men.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(91,967 posts)Biden's supporters were Hillary supporters in 2016, and believe that it is way past due for a woman to be President.
at least that is my impression
In my view the smartest candidate in the race, especially in regard to economics, and how to address those problems is Warren without a doubt, unfortunately I don't think she can win the general election, but we will see
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bloom
(11,635 posts)"According to polling from Morning Consult"
Which did seem rather odd to me - considering that their ideologies seem less close than those of other candidates.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(91,967 posts)correlate
Even though I have my preference as Joe Biden, it is because I believe he has the best chance out of all our candidates to win the general election. Needless to say I will support whoever our nominee is. In fact, my initial preference was my Senator Kamala Harris, but changed because of what I viewed as the candidate who has the best chance to win the general election.
It is still a long way off, and that could change, especially after the first debates
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SKKY
(11,773 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
loyalsister
(13,390 posts)Someone else among several possibilities will.
There's no doubt these poll results are driven by name recognition and are not predictive of what will happen when the primary voting begins. It would be a mistake to identify an early front runner and push them aggressively, when we have an opportunity to spend the next year and a half listening and bringing people together around a platform and organically selecting a candidate who will best represent a collective Democratic agenda.
The contentious horse race started early last year when two front runners were selected early to draw out a long ugly primary.
We have a chance to keep our Democratic ideals front and center in a media spotlight for a long time while multiple candidates have town hall meetings and interviews. I hope we will take it.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Kurt V.
(5,624 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
stonecutter357
(12,682 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
lark
(23,006 posts)i really want joe to run and I feel certain he can win this thing for us. However much I think he's going to run, I know it's possible that he won't. If so, I really have no idea who I'll vote for in the primary - Mayor Pete or Liz Warren or even Amy Klobuchar, even though she's not listed. If he's not in, I'm really going to get anxious as I don't know if anyone else besides him could win over the consortium of lies told by China/SA/Russia/Israel & US oligarchs to get people to not vote their own best interests.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ecstatic
(32,567 posts)to be the nominee are going to have to unite on a candidate. Kamala and Beto, perhaps? I think the non-Bernie consensus candidate will emerge in the first few debates.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
comradebillyboy
(10,119 posts)simply continues to ignore the women candidates.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
karynnj
(59,475 posts)for Sanders. Like Biden, Sanders has by far more name recognition than the others.
If Biden does not run, I suspect that one of (O'Rouke, Harris, Booker, Harris, Buttigeg, Warren or Klobuchar (who is polling better in Iowa than nationally) ) will be the winner of the Iowa caucus. With the possible exception of Warren, I think all of these people are closer and Warren to each other than to Sanders.
Iowa and NH have often culled serious candidates who see their support and contributions dry up after they underperform in Iowa and NH. It might even be as the debates start, that these numbers will shift between the non Sanders candidates.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(42,674 posts)Other than their age and the fact they are both really old (86 and 87 years old in last year of 2nd term), cis-gendered, white, hetero males they couldn't be further apart.
I just do not see it. I do think that if Biden wins the nomination in a multiple ballot convention where Bernie was the leader in delegates with a plurality (I also cannot see that happening), that the haemorrhage of Bernie voters to 3rd parties or even Trump will be just as high, or higher than happened in 2016 with Hillary.
The true disaster would be for Sanders to run as an independent or on a 3rd party ticket in the general. That would put Trump's chances at re-election up over 80 or even 90% especially if Bernie goes scorched-earth versus our nominee.
The Sanders crowd is now on a slash 'n burn policy versus Buttigieg. I have seen some nasty attacks already. A small but extremely active number of hardcore Bernie's supporters and some in his campaign itself only know negative modalities in their power-striving. It is divisive as hell and so damaging that one truly has to ask what their real motives are and who do they really represent in terms of the betterment of our country.
I am not a Biden fan at all, I do not buy into the 'it is Joe or bust' meme in terms of electability, BUT I will work my little blue arse off to help get him elected if he is our candidate versus the monster Trump. I have very little faith that the same can be said for a large percentage of Sanders supporters (NOT the ones on here at all, I think the DU Sanders people are absolutely on board with any winner of the Democratic nomination and operate in good faith).
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(42,674 posts)I still hope she runs for the Senate, as we desperately need to regain control there.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Mike Nelson
(9,903 posts)
or if he drops out, Bernie would be the "front runner" for a bit... but that is deceptive. If Biden endorses someone, that candidate would become the front runner, instead of Bernie. If he endorses nobody, the Biden votes would be disbursed. Bernie would be a weak front runner, by the way, as he would move behind when other candidate drop out. What Bernie really need is for Warren to drop out... and, it's all timing. Just my opinions!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
rgbecker
(4,806 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided