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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

crazytown

(7,277 posts)
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 08:12 AM Apr 2019

What happens if Biden doesn't run?

538 looks at an (older) poll which asked that question. In short, a third of Biden’s supporters would go to Bernie, more than a quarter to Beto, then one sixth (5%) to Harris, Booker, Buttigieg and Warren. The rest is distributed throughout the field.

Change Research Poll
March 31 - April 4

Joe Biden — 32%
Bernie Sanders — 14%
Kamala Harris — 10%
Cory Booker — 9%
Beto O’Rourke — 9%
Stacey Abrams — 7%
Pete Buttigieg — 7%
Elizabeth Warren — 6%

Without Joe Biden

Bernie Sanders — 24%
Beto O’Rourke — 16%
Kamala Harris — 15%
Cory Booker — 12%
Pete Buttigieg — 12%
Elizabeth Warren — 11%
Stacey Abrams — 9%

https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/2020-election/

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
85 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
What happens if Biden doesn't run? (Original Post) crazytown Apr 2019 OP
I seriously don't understand how Bernie is so high in the polls... Shell_Seas Apr 2019 #1
I don't get Biden's appeal... TCJ70 Apr 2019 #23
I'm with you TCJ70. All repugs wants joe. too many negatives votes/events in the past. bonniebgood Apr 2019 #25
I am with you as well. CentralMass Apr 2019 #52
Thank you for articulating my thoughts on the subject. woofless Apr 2019 #60
This is how I see voting for Biden artislife Apr 2019 #63
It's totally a fear thing... TCJ70 Apr 2019 #67
I am undecided artislife Apr 2019 #68
Me either. Thank you. BlueStater Apr 2019 #66
I hear you. BlueWI Apr 2019 #75
I live in Central Florida. Dr Hobbitstein Apr 2019 #26
I'm in Florida, a little south west of Central Indygram Apr 2019 #48
Good to know, Indygram.. Mahalo! Cha Apr 2019 #69
Hi Shell_Seas RazBerryBeret Apr 2019 #28
Bernie got 1200 People on his recent stop in Macomb County, Michigan LovingA2andMI Apr 2019 #51
um 538 doesn't do polls, they aggregate and analyze other polls. Voltaire2 Apr 2019 #73
And.. LovingA2andMI Apr 2019 #74
The OP says it's an older poll. So, before the recent rally. Demit Apr 2019 #76
Surprised only a third of Biden voters would go over to Bernie... would of thought more. InAbLuEsTaTe Apr 2019 #2
In a way, I'm surprised Sanders got even that much. thesquanderer Apr 2019 #11
Agreed. As a Biden supporter Bernie is like last on the list. nt UniteFightBack Apr 2019 #39
I'm surprised it's even 1/3 they are very different people. Agschmid Apr 2019 #24
This message was self-deleted by its author BannonsLiver Apr 2019 #49
I'm surprised the opposite way. lark Apr 2019 #57
Part of me wants to say we are fucked. Kath2 Apr 2019 #3
There are many in the Midwest whose lives have not improved, crazytown Apr 2019 #4
Exactly. Kath2 Apr 2019 #8
This message was self-deleted by its author BannonsLiver Apr 2019 #50
That's probably name recognition FBaggins Apr 2019 #5
I would say Biden & Bernie represent opposite ends of the Dem political spectrum, so yes. Demit Apr 2019 #12
75+ years old? crazytown Apr 2019 #14
Heh. They are the frontrunners there. Bernie has a slight edge :) Demit Apr 2019 #20
I agree karynnj Apr 2019 #62
He's running Lazy Daisy Apr 2019 #6
538 actually asked doesn't run or implodes. crazytown Apr 2019 #7
What's holding him up is fundraising. His reputation is that he's not good at it. Demit Apr 2019 #16
Biden's running. If he didn't run, we will lose the GE still_one Apr 2019 #9
Nonsense crazytown Apr 2019 #10
Nonsense yes... but not defeatism FBaggins Apr 2019 #17
In 2008 we argued hammer and tongs about electability crazytown Apr 2019 #18
Absolutely. If there is a black swan event, anything can happen still_one Apr 2019 #40
It isn't quite that simple, at least in my case. I am looking for someone who I think can win the still_one Apr 2019 #43
If Biden doesnt run it will be a brokered convention, and Sanders will be the nominee, and still_one Apr 2019 #29
I think numerous candidates could beat Trump. thesquanderer Apr 2019 #15
The issue is the red states and the electoral college still_one Apr 2019 #30
Which states won by Hillary in 2016 do you think the Dems would lose... thesquanderer Apr 2019 #46
I think if Biden isn't in the race, Sanders will be the nominee through brokered convention, and I still_one Apr 2019 #47
re: your comparison to 2016 thesquanderer Apr 2019 #55
You make your points well, I just think right or wrong, the socialism label won't resonate well in still_one Apr 2019 #64
oh brother Lazy Daisy Apr 2019 #19
Exactly, it is an opinion. Nothing more, nothing less. Regardless, whoever the candidate is, it still_one Apr 2019 #38
If Biden is this country's last hope, then we're screwed. BlueStater Apr 2019 #21
none of them are "saviors" qazplm135 Apr 2019 #65
If he doesn't run then it will be Beto Indygram Apr 2019 #54
Harris is my second choice then everyone else is 3rd samnsara Apr 2019 #13
What would you think of a Biden/Harris ticket? FailureToCommunicate Apr 2019 #33
That is my hope Bayard Apr 2019 #36
I'll be amazed if he doesn't run. MineralMan Apr 2019 #22
If Joe Biden decides not to run.... quickesst Apr 2019 #27
They don't have a mind of their own? still_one Apr 2019 #37
Of course they have a mind of their own.... quickesst Apr 2019 #70
It's a moot point though. Joe will run. still_one Apr 2019 #71
It's a hypothetical... quickesst Apr 2019 #72
Yup, same here still_one Apr 2019 #81
You didn't answer me quickesst Apr 2019 #82
It sure wasn't meant to be taken that way. Sometimes I am a little too direct, and it can be taken still_one Apr 2019 #83
I am relieved to hear it quickesst Apr 2019 #84
I am going to be less abrupt. You don't need to change a thing. We are on the same page still_one Apr 2019 #85
Almost all of Biden's supporters are Hillary voters BlueFlorida Apr 2019 #31
"Sanders is the second choice for many Biden voters, and vice versa" bloom Apr 2019 #32
I disagree. If Biden doesn't run, his supporters will go with Harris, Klobuchar, etc. Most of still_one Apr 2019 #35
the quote I posted was from the article bloom Apr 2019 #42
Thanks for that insight bloom. I should have read the OP more carefully. I agree it doesn't still_one Apr 2019 #44
I think what will happen is who cares until the debates, IMHO. SKKY Apr 2019 #34
If, ___ doesn't win loyalsister Apr 2019 #41
it would be a great day the the democratic party. Kurt V. Apr 2019 #45
Beto O'Rourke 2020 . stonecutter357 Apr 2019 #53
I have no idea who i will vote for if Joe doesn't get in. lark Apr 2019 #56
Biden's not my top choice, but those of us who don't want Bernie ecstatic Apr 2019 #58
If Biden opts not to run then Harris will come to the fore, unless the media comradebillyboy Apr 2019 #59
24 versus 15 or 16 is not that much of a lead and the 24 might reflect nearly the max karynnj Apr 2019 #61
zero chance a full third of Biden supporters would go to Bernie, it will never happen Celerity Apr 2019 #77
I also think that if Biden does not run, Stacey Abrams probably gets in for POTUS Celerity Apr 2019 #78
If he doesn't run... Mike Nelson Apr 2019 #79
Get to know your candidates. All about Biden. rgbecker Apr 2019 #80
 

Shell_Seas

(3,319 posts)
1. I seriously don't understand how Bernie is so high in the polls...
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 08:15 AM
Apr 2019

I know as lot of people that hate him and not even one person that likes him.

I live in Texas. So any polls represent the Southern States or are they all up north?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TCJ70

(4,387 posts)
23. I don't get Biden's appeal...
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 09:34 AM
Apr 2019

...He’s lost two previous primaries, was a relatively unseen VP (at least by me), has a history of gaffes and other negative events (Anita Hill). Also, in 2016 there was a phenomenon of Obama-Trump voters...do we really think putting his VP up front is going to be a good way to bring those voters back?

With Bernie, he’s pushing hard left. That’s what he really has going for him. Why support someone who wants to start at the middle and probably end up on the right when you can start farther left and probably end up in the middle/left? I’m basically split between Warren/Bernie at this point. I don’t buy the “we must be center to win” bullshit anymore.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

bonniebgood

(937 posts)
25. I'm with you TCJ70. All repugs wants joe. too many negatives votes/events in the past.
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 09:50 AM
Apr 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

CentralMass

(15,265 posts)
52. I am with you as well.
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 12:08 PM
Apr 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

woofless

(2,670 posts)
60. Thank you for articulating my thoughts on the subject.
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 01:24 PM
Apr 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

artislife

(9,497 posts)
63. This is how I see voting for Biden
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 01:46 PM
Apr 2019

I just don't see how that voting for Biden isn't running out of FEAR. If anything, Obama should have taught this party that people respond to HOPE.

All of our mythology is about individuals overcoming adversity, not giving up and pushing through. Vote for a candidate because he is so bland (trying to search for a word that describes his appeal--obviously, he is not on my primary list) that we will -shrug- go ahead - and vote for instead of rally around and go forward with, just seems like a losing move.

It is not a vote for anything. I don't see him fighting for anything, just trying to stop something. We live in a time that our young NEED someone who will fight to go forward and CHANGE the course we are on.


I have been worried about the Climate since '91. I chose to live in WA because of water and a kind of cool music scene. And trees. Lots of trees. I have worked with helping the Cascades and other local nature, along with net neutrality and lots of social injustice groups.


I don't think Biden is more concerned for the legacy people will be living through, just a legacy that will be stored in a digital file on the internet somewhere.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

TCJ70

(4,387 posts)
67. It's totally a fear thing...
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 01:56 PM
Apr 2019

...he’s seen, for some reason, as a safe vote. I don’t know anything about what he’d actually push for in terms of policy. He doesn’t have a campaign yet.

That’s part of the reason I haven’t decided on anyone yet. There’s still a lot to learn about everyone.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

artislife

(9,497 posts)
68. I am undecided
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 02:02 PM
Apr 2019

But my list so far includes forward movement. Bold candidates. I am also waiting to see how they all proceed in the coming months.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

BlueStater

(7,596 posts)
66. Me either. Thank you.
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 01:55 PM
Apr 2019

He'll be almost 80 years old by the time of the next presidential inauguration, has a long history of sticking his foot in his mouth, and has made some stupendously awful votes in his Senate career. He voted for the Iraq war, the Patriot Act, against bankruptcy for student debt, etc.

He has to be doing so well in the polls based entirely on name recognition and people not actually being familiar with what he did as a Senator. He has no strengths as a candidate besides that.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

BlueWI

(1,736 posts)
75. I hear you.
Mon Apr 15, 2019, 08:36 AM
Apr 2019

While Biden has some experiences that are unique as VP, Inslee has unique experience as a successful chief executive of Washington state and a long record of progressive policy. But some prefer name recognition and low risk approaches, despite 2016 and the poor recent record of former vice presidents in presidential campaigns.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Dr Hobbitstein

(6,568 posts)
26. I live in Central Florida.
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 09:51 AM
Apr 2019

Every single liberal/Democrat that I know supports Bernie.
In 2016, I was the odd one out (I was an HRC supporter) amongst my group of friends (about 150 or so people in their early 20s-mid 40s, local music scene).
They are all still behind Bernie.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Indygram

(2,113 posts)
48. I'm in Florida, a little south west of Central
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 12:02 PM
Apr 2019

And no one I know likes Bernie. They just hate Trump. There are lots of Trump supporters in my area but I only had one friend who was and I am so disgusted with her that I don't speak to her anymore. I think he's higher in the polls only because he was the only other name people remember who was against Trump besides Hillary.

Once more people are paying attention I think you will see his numbers drop off drastically. He has a certain amount of people who won't ever consider anyone else, but much of his support now is just name recognition.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Cha

(295,929 posts)
69. Good to know, Indygram.. Mahalo!
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 03:44 PM
Apr 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

RazBerryBeret

(3,075 posts)
28. Hi Shell_Seas
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 10:03 AM
Apr 2019

I'm Tammy, I live in Ohio, and I supported Bernie in '16 and I support him now. So now you know ONE person that likes him! He is Yugely popular to young and old alike. I used to listen to him when he did a hourly "Brunch with Bernie" on the Thom Hartmann show around 2004. He would say things that I thought were crazy/radical, and then explain how they would happen. His idealogy hasn't changed much since then and I appreciate that.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

LovingA2andMI

(7,006 posts)
51. Bernie got 1200 People on his recent stop in Macomb County, Michigan
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 12:08 PM
Apr 2019

Just 1200. Nowhere near 11,000 he got in 2015 in Washtenaw County, MI.

This poll is a lie. Bernie does NOT have this much support and 538 needs to do better with their polling.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Voltaire2

(12,632 posts)
73. um 538 doesn't do polls, they aggregate and analyze other polls.
Mon Apr 15, 2019, 07:37 AM
Apr 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

LovingA2andMI

(7,006 posts)
74. And..
Mon Apr 15, 2019, 07:49 AM
Apr 2019

Bernie still got 1200 in Warren County, Michigan recently compared with 11,000 in Washtenaw County in 2015. Reads like your Undecided is well....maybe not so much. Either way, Bernie is way likely NOT going to win the Nomination. Tootles!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Demit

(11,238 posts)
76. The OP says it's an older poll. So, before the recent rally.
Mon Apr 15, 2019, 08:47 AM
Apr 2019

No reason to slag posters or poll aggregators.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

InAbLuEsTaTe

(24,110 posts)
2. Surprised only a third of Biden voters would go over to Bernie... would of thought more.
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 08:16 AM
Apr 2019

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

thesquanderer

(11,955 posts)
11. In a way, I'm surprised Sanders got even that much.
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 08:42 AM
Apr 2019

In a way, it's surprising that Sanders get as many Biden voters as he does, because the two are pretty much at opposite extremes of the field, politically. Biden is the leader of the moderate, establishment side of the party; Sanders is the leader of the leftist/socialist, anti-establishment side of the party. Politically, there are numerous candidates who are closer to Biden than Sanders is, and would be more logical second choices.

I think there are two things helping Sanders here. One is that those who prefer a more moderate candidate may be splitting their votes among a greater number of choices. But I think the bigger factor is probably name recognition. There is a comfort level in going with the "security" of the big name, even if you'd prefer different positions. Ironically, this worked against Sanders in 2016, but would work in his favor this time, if Biden didn't run.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

UniteFightBack

(8,231 posts)
39. Agreed. As a Biden supporter Bernie is like last on the list. nt
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 10:53 AM
Apr 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Agschmid

(28,749 posts)
24. I'm surprised it's even 1/3 they are very different people.
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 09:41 AM
Apr 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Response to InAbLuEsTaTe (Reply #2)

 

lark

(23,006 posts)
57. I'm surprised the opposite way.
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 12:46 PM
Apr 2019

I voted for Bernie in 2016 primaries and would not vote for him the primaries now unless it was just between him & Gillibrand & Tulsi. I think Bernie and Joe - other than being older white men - have the most differences in philosophy and tone than any of the other candidates so am surprised that this says 1/3 will switch to Bernie. That doesn't seem right to me either, only I think it would be far far less. Where would they go, don't know? This Biden person would probably vote Mayor Pete or Liz Warren without Joe being in the race.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Kath2

(3,054 posts)
3. Part of me wants to say we are fucked.
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 08:21 AM
Apr 2019

But another part realizes that HRC won the popular vote by 3 million and Dems should be out in force in 2020 to end this madness.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

crazytown

(7,277 posts)
4. There are many in the Midwest whose lives have not improved,
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 08:23 AM
Apr 2019

tariffs and all. Some will stay home, others will want revenge. Trump’s approval is 22% underwater in Wisconsin.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Kath2

(3,054 posts)
8. Exactly.
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 08:32 AM
Apr 2019

Trump's economic policies have had negative effects on the middle class. And I think more and more average people are getting disgusted with the racism, sexism and embarrassing spoiled rich brat behavior.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Response to Kath2 (Reply #3)

 

FBaggins

(26,697 posts)
5. That's probably name recognition
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 08:25 AM
Apr 2019

Biden’s strength in most polls is name recognition... but his ability to actually get through the primaries is comparatively moderate positions in a field of further-left candidates that will split the base. Though Bernie is at the other end of the democratic spectrum, he’s the next-best-know.

My guess is that if this were toward the end of the primaries and Biden were to drop out... his voters would go to someone else. Likely whichever establishment candidate was closest to the top.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Demit

(11,238 posts)
12. I would say Biden & Bernie represent opposite ends of the Dem political spectrum, so yes.
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 08:43 AM
Apr 2019

We don't know what ideas Biden will propose, because he's not actually running yet. But it's accepted that he is on the conservative end of liberal. Bernie has made bold liberal proposals.

I don't see what else beside name recognition they have in common that would make Bernie a substitute for Biden.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Demit

(11,238 posts)
20. Heh. They are the frontrunners there. Bernie has a slight edge :)
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 09:05 AM
Apr 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

karynnj

(59,475 posts)
62. I agree
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 01:38 PM
Apr 2019

At this point, I think there are many without a favorite who do not want to appear like they are not informed - so they answer the first name they can think of. Asking second favorite is even harder. Consider that 46% of those of us posting in the primaries forum of DU are listed as undecided and we are likely more interested than the average person.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Lazy Daisy

(928 posts)
6. He's running
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 08:27 AM
Apr 2019

He's just waiting to announce.

What your thoughts on why he's waiting depends on whether you support his run or not.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

crazytown

(7,277 posts)
7. 538 actually asked doesn't run or implodes.
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 08:31 AM
Apr 2019

I think that’s whatever missteps he may make, Biden will be a formidable competitor.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Demit

(11,238 posts)
16. What's holding him up is fundraising. His reputation is that he's not good at it.
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 08:57 AM
Apr 2019

He won't take super-PAC money and he's not adept at raising money from small donors through social media the way the younger candidates are.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

still_one

(91,967 posts)
9. Biden's running. If he didn't run, we will lose the GE
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 08:33 AM
Apr 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

crazytown

(7,277 posts)
10. Nonsense
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 08:40 AM
Apr 2019

Defeatism. Anything could happen between now and Election Day. Trump could have a (fatal) stroke for example. Struggling for words, he may have had some minor ones already.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

FBaggins

(26,697 posts)
17. Nonsense yes... but not defeatism
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 08:57 AM
Apr 2019

I’m sure that we’ll see no end of “but my preferred candidate is the only one who can defeat Trump” over the next year or so. Electability is always an issue in primaries, but it only sells if it’s implied that the other choice can’t win. It’s a tough sell when there are 20 alternatives.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

crazytown

(7,277 posts)
18. In 2008 we argued hammer and tongs about electability
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 09:00 AM
Apr 2019

Then in September the economy fell through the floor and it was all academic.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

still_one

(91,967 posts)
40. Absolutely. If there is a black swan event, anything can happen
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 10:53 AM
Apr 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

still_one

(91,967 posts)
43. It isn't quite that simple, at least in my case. I am looking for someone who I think can win the
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 11:01 AM
Apr 2019

general election, and in order to do that they need to be able to capture some red and purple states.

From the top two leading candidates, Biden and Sanders, if Biden decides not to run, I believe the odds go up for a brokered convention, and the odds favor Sanders being the nominee in that case. I do not believe that Sanders would be able to capture any red states, and have a difficult time with purple states in the general election. Because of the electoral college, we need someone who can get some red states, and I frankly don't believe Sanders can do that.

Needless to say it is just an opinion, and could be wrong.

I am from California so it isn't going to matter, we are going to vote for whoever the Democratic nominee is, but California is not representative of the rest of the country I believe


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

still_one

(91,967 posts)
29. If Biden doesnt run it will be a brokered convention, and Sanders will be the nominee, and
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 10:08 AM
Apr 2019

Sanders will have a very difficult time in purple states, and red states is practically nill

The country unfortunately hasnt changed that much since McGovern ran, and in fact has gotten worse

We believe what we like to believe because we talk to like minded people. Hopefully I am wrong, and the country is much more liberal than I perceive

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

thesquanderer

(11,955 posts)
15. I think numerous candidates could beat Trump.
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 08:56 AM
Apr 2019

Let's assume that virtually everyone who voted for Hillary last time votes for whoever the Dem candidate is this time. I think that's pretty likely, because Trump has not increased his appeal to those who didn't vote for him in 2016. I find it hard to imagine many 2016 Hillary voters switching to Trump in 2020. The only risk here, as I see it, is if many stay home altogether, if they really dislike the Dem too. But even then, many people disliked both candidates in 2016, too. We're starting from a base point of having run someone who had high negatives to begin with. So I think we're almost certain to get every state Hillary got.

So then the question is, who picks up MI, WI, and PA? (Or possibly some other combination of Trump states.) Yes, I think Biden can do it. But I think numerous others can as well. (Heck, I think Sanders could probably have done it last time.)

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

still_one

(91,967 posts)
30. The issue is the red states and the electoral college
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 10:10 AM
Apr 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

thesquanderer

(11,955 posts)
46. Which states won by Hillary in 2016 do you think the Dems would lose...
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 11:41 AM
Apr 2019

...whether with Sanders or other likely contenders?

Since I feel the answer is "none" (for the reasons I explained), then the question comes down to who can have a good shot at picking up WI/MI/PA (i.e. the most likely to be flippable). I think Biden and Sanders both do that, as can others.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

still_one

(91,967 posts)
47. I think if Biden isn't in the race, Sanders will be the nominee through brokered convention, and I
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 11:56 AM
Apr 2019

Last edited Sun Apr 14, 2019, 01:41 PM - Edit history (1)

personally do not believe he can capture any red states.

It is not comparable to 2016, because the 10% of Sanders supporters who refused to vote for the Democratic nominee in 2016, won't occur in 2020, at least I hope not, and that all Democrats will vote for the Democratic nominee in 2020 no mater who it is.

The problems shouldn't be MI or PA. Not sure about WI, that is a flip of a coin.

While all states are critical, the most important ones will be Florida and Ohio, and that is what it will come down to in my view.

I simply believe Biden has the best chance out of all our candidates in those states, and red states such as North Carolina and Virginia.

I think Sanders has the worst chance in my view.

I think the other potential Democratic candidates can do it except for Gabbard and Gilibrand, but it will be a steeper hill for them to climb

Anything can happen though

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

thesquanderer

(11,955 posts)
55. re: your comparison to 2016
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 12:32 PM
Apr 2019

re:

It is not comparable to 2016, because the 10% of Sanders supporters who refused to vote for the Democratic nominee in 2016, won't occur in 2020, at least I hope not, and that all Democrats will vote for the Democratic nominee in 2020 no mater who it is.

You always lose some Democrats to the opposition. Clinton got 89% of the Dem vote in 2016, Obama got 89% in 2008 and 92% in 2012 (when he had the advantage of incumbency). So expect to lose about 10% of them no matter what, that's not a Sanders-specific issue. In fact, many of the Sanders supporters who didn't vote for Clinton weren't Dems in the first place, many were independents. So they were not even Democratic "defectors."

The key to winning isn't getting more Dems to vote for the Dem nominee (about 90% of them will no matter what)... it's getting more of the independents to vote for the Dem nominee. And that actually plays to one of Sanders' strengths.

Would Sanders flip any red states? Maybe not. But even if he just holds the same states Hillary won, and adds the working-class winnable MI/WI/PA, he's there. I really feel confident that both he and Biden could do that, they both have working class appeal.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

still_one

(91,967 posts)
64. You make your points well, I just think right or wrong, the socialism label won't resonate well in
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 01:47 PM
Apr 2019

those states

Much of that working class you are referring to voted for Reagan over Carter, and yes, they are paying the price for that, but I do not think lessons are learned

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Lazy Daisy

(928 posts)
19. oh brother
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 09:05 AM
Apr 2019

There are other candidates quite capable of beating Trump. Myself, I think Biden isn't one of them. But we all have our opinions.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

still_one

(91,967 posts)
38. Exactly, it is an opinion. Nothing more, nothing less. Regardless, whoever the candidate is, it
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 10:52 AM
Apr 2019

has to be someone who can take some red and purple states because of the electoral college


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

BlueStater

(7,596 posts)
21. If Biden is this country's last hope, then we're screwed.
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 09:18 AM
Apr 2019

Sorry, just not seeing a nearly 80-year-old gaffe machine that voted for the Iraq war as the savior America needs.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

qazplm135

(7,447 posts)
65. none of them are "saviors"
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 01:52 PM
Apr 2019

NONE OF THEM.

And America doesn't need one. They need a return from the land of the crazy racist.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Indygram

(2,113 posts)
54. If he doesn't run then it will be Beto
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 12:21 PM
Apr 2019

Heck, it could even end up being Beto if Biden does run. Those are my top two but I actually like Beto better after giving it more thought and listening to him. Here's why...

We all know Trump is going to try to make 2020 about immigration and the border. Beto grew up in a border city, still lives in a border city and he knows more than anyone else running about the real impact what Trump is trying to do will have on not just the border towns and states but the economy as a whole, etc. Beto is extremely charismatic, is masterful at framing an issue in a way that makes sense to people, he is so genuine, listens and is completely unscripted. He does not poll on issues in order to try to twist himself into a pretzel when stating his positions on an issue. He just states his positions. When he makes a mistake he owns it, admits it and takes responsibility and moves on. He is very positive and hopeful and has a message of unity. He doesn't attack or speak badly of groups of voters. He wants to listen to what they have to say and talk to them. Beto was also just thoroughly vetted in a high stakes race that got lots of national attention.

If Biden is the nominee I'll definitely support him because I like him lots. I like Beto more, though. I think he's best on the border and immigration and that's the message we need to beat Trump on.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

samnsara

(17,572 posts)
13. Harris is my second choice then everyone else is 3rd
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 08:46 AM
Apr 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

FailureToCommunicate

(13,989 posts)
33. What would you think of a Biden/Harris ticket?
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 10:29 AM
Apr 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
22. I'll be amazed if he doesn't run.
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 09:29 AM
Apr 2019

I can't see that happening, frankly.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

quickesst

(6,280 posts)
27. If Joe Biden decides not to run....
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 09:57 AM
Apr 2019

....who will his supporters turn to?

Short answer: Whoever Joe Biden endorses and campaigns for.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

still_one

(91,967 posts)
37. They don't have a mind of their own?
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 10:48 AM
Apr 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

quickesst

(6,280 posts)
70. Of course they have a mind of their own....
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 04:17 PM
Apr 2019

.....but if I apply even a small portion of logic to my argument it is easy to come to the conclusion Biden supporters would choose the candidate who's platform and guiding principles most clearly mirror his own. I feel confident that if Joe Biden does not run, he will apply that same logic in choosing who to support and campaign for. Why wouldn't he? Why wouldn't they?


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

still_one

(91,967 posts)
71. It's a moot point though. Joe will run.
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 04:43 PM
Apr 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

quickesst

(6,280 posts)
72. It's a hypothetical...
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 10:32 PM
Apr 2019

.... And I gave my opinion. I do have every confidence that Joe will run, so I don't understand the underlying hostility. My preference to win the presidency is showing up on my posts, isn't it? Big letters that say:

BIDEN

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

quickesst

(6,280 posts)
82. You didn't answer me
Mon Apr 15, 2019, 09:11 PM
Apr 2019

Why the underlying hostility?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

still_one

(91,967 posts)
83. It sure wasn't meant to be taken that way. Sometimes I am a little too direct, and it can be taken
Mon Apr 15, 2019, 09:14 PM
Apr 2019

as rudeness. I definitely did not mean it to come across like that.

Sorry



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

quickesst

(6,280 posts)
84. I am relieved to hear it
Mon Apr 15, 2019, 09:17 PM
Apr 2019

I will bear it in mind on future exchanges. No harm, no worries, no foul.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

still_one

(91,967 posts)
85. I am going to be less abrupt. You don't need to change a thing. We are on the same page
Mon Apr 15, 2019, 09:25 PM
Apr 2019

Thanks


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

BlueFlorida

(1,532 posts)
31. Almost all of Biden's supporters are Hillary voters
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 10:16 AM
Apr 2019

Not even 1% of them would go to Bernie Sanders.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

bloom

(11,635 posts)
32. "Sanders is the second choice for many Biden voters, and vice versa"
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 10:20 AM
Apr 2019

for people who want to vote for old white men.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

still_one

(91,967 posts)
35. I disagree. If Biden doesn't run, his supporters will go with Harris, Klobuchar, etc. Most of
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 10:47 AM
Apr 2019

Biden's supporters were Hillary supporters in 2016, and believe that it is way past due for a woman to be President.

at least that is my impression

In my view the smartest candidate in the race, especially in regard to economics, and how to address those problems is Warren without a doubt, unfortunately I don't think she can win the general election, but we will see

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

bloom

(11,635 posts)
42. the quote I posted was from the article
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 11:00 AM
Apr 2019

"According to polling from Morning Consult"

Which did seem rather odd to me - considering that their ideologies seem less close than those of other candidates.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

still_one

(91,967 posts)
44. Thanks for that insight bloom. I should have read the OP more carefully. I agree it doesn't
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 11:13 AM
Apr 2019

correlate

Even though I have my preference as Joe Biden, it is because I believe he has the best chance out of all our candidates to win the general election. Needless to say I will support whoever our nominee is. In fact, my initial preference was my Senator Kamala Harris, but changed because of what I viewed as the candidate who has the best chance to win the general election.

It is still a long way off, and that could change, especially after the first debates

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

SKKY

(11,773 posts)
34. I think what will happen is who cares until the debates, IMHO.
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 10:33 AM
Apr 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

loyalsister

(13,390 posts)
41. If, ___ doesn't win
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 10:56 AM
Apr 2019

Someone else among several possibilities will.
There's no doubt these poll results are driven by name recognition and are not predictive of what will happen when the primary voting begins. It would be a mistake to identify an early front runner and push them aggressively, when we have an opportunity to spend the next year and a half listening and bringing people together around a platform and organically selecting a candidate who will best represent a collective Democratic agenda.
The contentious horse race started early last year when two front runners were selected early to draw out a long ugly primary.
We have a chance to keep our Democratic ideals front and center in a media spotlight for a long time while multiple candidates have town hall meetings and interviews. I hope we will take it.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Kurt V.

(5,624 posts)
45. it would be a great day the the democratic party.
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 11:35 AM
Apr 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

lark

(23,006 posts)
56. I have no idea who i will vote for if Joe doesn't get in.
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 12:39 PM
Apr 2019

i really want joe to run and I feel certain he can win this thing for us. However much I think he's going to run, I know it's possible that he won't. If so, I really have no idea who I'll vote for in the primary - Mayor Pete or Liz Warren or even Amy Klobuchar, even though she's not listed. If he's not in, I'm really going to get anxious as I don't know if anyone else besides him could win over the consortium of lies told by China/SA/Russia/Israel & US oligarchs to get people to not vote their own best interests.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

ecstatic

(32,567 posts)
58. Biden's not my top choice, but those of us who don't want Bernie
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 12:50 PM
Apr 2019

to be the nominee are going to have to unite on a candidate. Kamala and Beto, perhaps? I think the non-Bernie consensus candidate will emerge in the first few debates.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

comradebillyboy

(10,119 posts)
59. If Biden opts not to run then Harris will come to the fore, unless the media
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 12:52 PM
Apr 2019

simply continues to ignore the women candidates.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

karynnj

(59,475 posts)
61. 24 versus 15 or 16 is not that much of a lead and the 24 might reflect nearly the max
Sun Apr 14, 2019, 01:34 PM
Apr 2019

for Sanders. Like Biden, Sanders has by far more name recognition than the others.

If Biden does not run, I suspect that one of (O'Rouke, Harris, Booker, Harris, Buttigeg, Warren or Klobuchar (who is polling better in Iowa than nationally) ) will be the winner of the Iowa caucus. With the possible exception of Warren, I think all of these people are closer and Warren to each other than to Sanders.

Iowa and NH have often culled serious candidates who see their support and contributions dry up after they underperform in Iowa and NH. It might even be as the debates start, that these numbers will shift between the non Sanders candidates.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Celerity

(42,674 posts)
77. zero chance a full third of Biden supporters would go to Bernie, it will never happen
Mon Apr 15, 2019, 09:06 AM
Apr 2019

Other than their age and the fact they are both really old (86 and 87 years old in last year of 2nd term), cis-gendered, white, hetero males they couldn't be further apart.

I just do not see it. I do think that if Biden wins the nomination in a multiple ballot convention where Bernie was the leader in delegates with a plurality (I also cannot see that happening), that the haemorrhage of Bernie voters to 3rd parties or even Trump will be just as high, or higher than happened in 2016 with Hillary.

The true disaster would be for Sanders to run as an independent or on a 3rd party ticket in the general. That would put Trump's chances at re-election up over 80 or even 90% especially if Bernie goes scorched-earth versus our nominee.

The Sanders crowd is now on a slash 'n burn policy versus Buttigieg. I have seen some nasty attacks already. A small but extremely active number of hardcore Bernie's supporters and some in his campaign itself only know negative modalities in their power-striving. It is divisive as hell and so damaging that one truly has to ask what their real motives are and who do they really represent in terms of the betterment of our country.

I am not a Biden fan at all, I do not buy into the 'it is Joe or bust' meme in terms of electability, BUT I will work my little blue arse off to help get him elected if he is our candidate versus the monster Trump. I have very little faith that the same can be said for a large percentage of Sanders supporters (NOT the ones on here at all, I think the DU Sanders people are absolutely on board with any winner of the Democratic nomination and operate in good faith).

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Celerity

(42,674 posts)
78. I also think that if Biden does not run, Stacey Abrams probably gets in for POTUS
Mon Apr 15, 2019, 09:18 AM
Apr 2019

I still hope she runs for the Senate, as we desperately need to regain control there.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Mike Nelson

(9,903 posts)
79. If he doesn't run...
Mon Apr 15, 2019, 09:55 AM
Apr 2019

… or if he drops out, Bernie would be the "front runner" for a bit... but that is deceptive. If Biden endorses someone, that candidate would become the front runner, instead of Bernie. If he endorses nobody, the Biden votes would be disbursed. Bernie would be a weak front runner, by the way, as he would move behind when other candidate drop out. What Bernie really need is for Warren to drop out... and, it's all timing. Just my opinions!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

rgbecker

(4,806 posts)
80. Get to know your candidates. All about Biden.
Mon Apr 15, 2019, 10:19 AM
Apr 2019
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden

Is this guy going to get people to the polls?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
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