It's Bernie's World (And 2020 Democrats Are All Living in It)

[David__77]

What’s more important at this stage of the game is the ability to set the terms and the terrain of the game. This is where Sanders has dominated. The Vermont Senator has set the rules (both written and unwritten) and has forced the rest of the field to follow them.

...

Today, Medicare for All has become the default position of almost every candidate in the race. While the 2020 candidates have differed in their approach and embrace of Medicare for All, the issue is animating — and dominating — the 2020 primary debate. That is exactly how Sanders would like it to be. That, however, is not where a lot of Democrats would like to see the focus of attention— especially those who worry that a debate over ‘socialized medicine’ will be a political disaster for their party in 2020.

...

Moreover, Sanders and his allies have been effective in painting these delegates as subversive. That serves to lessen their influence, even on a second ballot at a contested convention. In other words, if Sanders comes into the convention with the most pledged delegates, the superdelegates' ability to coalesce and deny him the nomination will be seen as illegitimate.

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/its-bernies-world-and-2020-democrats-are-all-living-it

[snowybirdie]

1. Is Bernie

a Democrat yet?

[David__77]

2. I don't know.

I know he's a Democratic candidate for president, like in 2016.

[msongs]

3. catapulting the progaganda. if its repeated over enuff maybe it will become true.

of course this does not just apply to bernie etc

[David__77]

5. Opinion can be normative, sure.

History is also certainly filled with "unlikely" occurrences.

[Gothmog]

20. Bernie is hoping for a brokered convention.

Link to tweet

[Uncle Joe]

4. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread David.

[SFnomad]

6. So BS and his supporters are already making excuses for why they'll throw themselves into a tantrum

when they don't get the nomination ... again.

BS isn't leading the pack and he's not going to go into the Convention with the most pledged delegates.

Just like 4 years earlier, Super Tuesday is going to be a disaster for BS.

[David__77]

7. The author is named Amy Walter. She's national editor of Cook Political Report

https://twitter.com/@amyewalter

Is she making excuses for why she'll throw herself into a tantrum?

[David__77]

10. I found the attribution curious.

...

[SFnomad]

9. She's lining up the excuses for why BS and his supporters are going to temper tantrum ... again n/t

[BeyondGeography]

11. Meantime, we can watch a lot of other people throw tantrums

Again.

[SFnomad]

12. I'm just curious ... when BS doesn't get the nomination, who will his staff vote for, this time ...

Last edited Mon Apr 22, 2019, 01:18 AM - Edit history (1)

2016 General Election ...

Co-Chairman: Nina Turner - Jill Stein voter
National Press Secretary: Briahna Joy Gray - Jill Stein voter
Campaign Speechwriter: David Sirota - Jill Stein voter
Top campaign adviser: Cornell West - Jill Stein voter

[LongtimeAZDem]

13. +1

[comradebillyboy]

18. Lots of folks noticed that.

[Gothmog]

14. How sanders Thinks He'll Win the Nomination

From the Political Wire-- https://politicalwire.com/2019/04/18/how-bernie-sanders-thinks-hell-win-nomination/

The Atlantic: “He’s counting on winning Iowa and New Hampshire, where he was already surprisingly strong in 2016, and hoping that Cory Booker and Kamala Harris will split the black electorate in South Carolina and give him a path to slip through there, too. And then, Sanders aides believe, he’ll easily win enough delegates to put him into contention at the convention. They say they don’t need him to get more than 30 percent to make that happen.”

Even Mondale got more support than sanders

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

15. sanders will not be the nominee with only 30% of the primary vote

From the Political Wire https://politicalwire.com/2019/04/18/how-bernie-sanders-thinks-hell-win-nomination/

The Atlantic: “He’s counting on winning Iowa and New Hampshire, where he was already surprisingly strong in 2016, and hoping that Cory Booker and Kamala Harris will split the black electorate in South Carolina and give him a path to slip through there, too. And then, Sanders aides believe, he’ll easily win enough delegates to put him into contention at the convention. They say they don’t need him to get more than 30 percent to make that happen.”

Even Mondale got more support than sanders

Link to tweet

[highplainsdem]

16. Ridiculous. Her column two months ago about Sanders was more realistic,

pointing out Biden's strengths compared to Sanders':

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/are-democratic-primary-voters-feeling-bern

Here’s the bottom line: Bernie is still a serious contender in this contest. And, he’s got a base of support that’s significant. But, there are also some real warning signs for him. The intensity of support for him doesn’t match that of the only other universally known candidate in the field — Joe Biden. It’s also become clear that Democratic voters are prioritizing 'beating Trump' over 'starting a revolution.' That won’t help his cause either. Of course, we don’t know yet if Biden is getting in. If he doesn’t, where will that early support for him go? If he does, will his strong numbers — especially on the metric of 'most electable' - hold steady if he stumbles under scrutiny? One thing we do know: this race is WIDE OPEN. And, will likely stay that way for a good, long time.

Looks like her new column was designed to appease Sanders supporters who were probably complaining, and who would loooove the headline about it being "Bernie's world."

[Demsrule86]

17. Such crap...If sanders has the most delegates, he will be the nominee. But it is

more likely he will not have the votes but try to win on the second ballot will not happen. I would vote for him in a general, but he won't win the primary. He would not beat Trump in a general

[Gothmog]

19. Nate Silver- Sanders Can Win, But He Isn't Polling Like A Favorite

Nate thinks that it is possible for sander to win the nomination but this is not likely. sanders is not going to be the nominee of the party. sanders thinks that getting 30% of the primary vote is sufficient which means taking the fight to the contested convention. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-can-win-but-he-isnt-polling-like-a-favorite/

Historically, though, candidates who are polling at only about 20 percent nationally despite the near-universal name recognition that Sanders enjoys don’t have a great track record. From our research on the history of past primary polls, I found 15 candidates from past nomination processes who, like Sanders, (i) polled at an average of between 15 percent and 25 percent4 in national polls in the first six months of the year before the Iowa caucuses5 and (ii) who had high or very high name recognition.6.....

Achieving a delegate majority could be hard for Sanders
You could also argue that the three winning candidates from the list — Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012 — aren’t good comparisons for Sanders, especially from a “The Party Decides” standpoint where preferences among party insiders and activists are leading indicators of voter preferences. Romney, for instance, had the backing of the GOP party establishment as a potential consensus choice, whereas Sanders largely lacks it from Democrats. Obama was a rising star, rather than someone left over from a previous cycle, and gained a lot of momentum among party elites as the 2008 cycle wore on, even if they also liked Clinton. McCain, who ran against the party establishment in 2000 but was someone the party could live with in 2008, is in some ways the most favorable comparison for Sanders.

In many respects, however, Sanders is more similar to Jesse Jackson in 1984 and 1988, George Wallace in 1972 and 1976 or Ron Paul in 2012, candidates who represented important constituencies within their respective parties but who didn’t have an obvious way to unite the rest of the party behind them or to win a delegate majority.

At times, Sanders’s strategists actually seem to be leaning into the strategy of being a factional candidate. The Sanders campaign may have all kinds of reasons to feel aggrieved by how the party establishment has treated it, especially when it reads articles like the one in The New York Times that suggest the establishment is out to get it again! Nonetheless, the campaign hasn’t sought to mend fences when conflicts have arisen this year. Instead, Sanders aides told The Atlantic’s Edward-Isaac Dovere that they think they can win the nomination with as little as a 30 percent plurality of delegates. That’s a risky strategy since it would necessarily entail a contested convention, where party insiders would play an outsized role. Nor would Sanders, a 77-year-old white man, reflect the various constituencies of the Democratic Party (and the demographics of the delegates themselves) as well as someone like Harris might.

sanders will not be the nominee if sanders only gets 30% of the primary vote. There are too many real democrats who have long memories and who will not forgive or forget. If this gets to a floor fight, the delegates for the other candidates will not support sanders and the super delegates will get to break any deadlocks after the first ballot.