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Undecided 44%
Elizabeth Warren22%
Joe Biden14%
Bernie Sanders8%
Pete Buttigieg6%

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 06:00 AM

 

If Biden is nominee his odds of victory are 76%

Betting markets, like polls, aren’t perfect predictors, but they have proven validity, a pretty good track record. Some say the predict better than polls. Right now Predictit has the odds of Biden being the nominee at 25%. His odds of becoming president are 19%. That means that if he is the nominee his odds of winning are 76%. Overall Predictit has the odds of a democrat becoming President at 57%. So Biden seems a good choice. In a poll yesterday Biden had an eight point lead over Trump. Chris Christie yesterday said Trump won because of a small number of white working class voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Looking at all the democratic contenders Christie thinks Biden has the best chance of stealing those voters away from Trump.

I prefer Warren or Booker but I think Biden is more likely to win. And Biden can appoint Warren head of Treasury, Booker head of health and human services, Inslee head of EPA, Harris Attorney General. Vice President should be New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Reply If Biden is nominee his odds of victory are 76% (Original post)
Cicada Apr 2019 OP
Turbineguy Apr 2019 #1
dubyadiprecession Apr 2019 #3
still_one Apr 2019 #2
watoos Apr 2019 #4
still_one Apr 2019 #5
friend of m and j Apr 2019 #7
still_one Apr 2019 #10
Hortensis Apr 2019 #20
still_one Apr 2019 #23
Hortensis Apr 2019 #29
still_one Apr 2019 #33
Hortensis Apr 2019 #34
Demsrule86 Apr 2019 #21
Blue_Adept Apr 2019 #11
still_one Apr 2019 #13
Blue_Adept Apr 2019 #14
still_one Apr 2019 #15
Demsrule86 Apr 2019 #22
Hortensis Apr 2019 #6
Demsrule86 Apr 2019 #18
friend of m and j Apr 2019 #8
sfwriter Apr 2019 #9
SweetieD Apr 2019 #12
Cicada Apr 2019 #16
Demsrule86 Apr 2019 #17
bdamomma Apr 2019 #19
Go Vols Apr 2019 #24
SleeplessinSoCal Apr 2019 #25
beachbum bob Apr 2019 #26
delisen Apr 2019 #27
gateley Apr 2019 #31
Blue Owl Apr 2019 #28
gateley Apr 2019 #32
gateley Apr 2019 #30
Awsi Dooger Apr 2019 #35
delisen Apr 2019 #36

Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 06:13 AM

1. It would be nice if he

 

wiped out Trump in the election. His brainwashed dolt minions really couldn't do much about that.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Turbineguy (Reply #1)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 06:29 AM

3. Our nation is fatigued by trump.

 

This MAGA bullshit of his is played out.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 06:24 AM

2. The big unknown is if we go to a brokered convention. I know there are some who

 

minimize that is an issue, but if history is any guide, and that does become an eventuality, I think it will spell trouble for us


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to still_one (Reply #2)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 06:31 AM

4. The DNC changed the way it handles super delegates now, correct?

 

Super delegates can't vote for whoever they want anymore on the first ballot, they must vote for the candidate who got the most votes.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to watoos (Reply #4)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 06:38 AM

5. That is my understanding also, though in the past the SD always went with the candidate that had

 

the most delegates, we have so many candidates running, I think we have a high potential for shooting ourselves in the foot.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to still_one (Reply #5)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 07:38 AM

7. Move your foot a little bit. Your worries at this point in time in the primary races..

 

is kind of like being stopped at a railroad crossing and taking a photo of the train as it speeds past you. It will only give you a snapshot of a few cars, it won't tell you if that train has 20 cars or a 100.

A majority of those candidates now in the race will drop out long before the convention. I doubt there will be more than 5 candidates remaining by the time of the convention. So wait until that train gets close to the station before you start worrying about delegates.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to friend of m and j (Reply #7)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 08:21 AM

10. Good analogy, but I still think there is a good chance too many candidates will not drop out

 

and move the odds toward a brokered convention

I hope I am wrong

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to still_one (Reply #10)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 09:40 AM

20. Well, history suggests don't worry until you have to.

 

As I'm sure you know, weird as these times are, 1952 for Democrats and 1976 for Republicans were the last times the specter genuinely rose.

As for candidates not dropping out, of course we should count on Sanders not to. He's already doing much more poorly than 2015 but will take his 8%-equivalent, whatever it turns out to be with Russia's and the Repubs' help, all the way.

This is no binary contest, though, and with other strongly progressive choices it's very possible he'll never reach the 15% delegate threshhold. He just did astonishingly poorly at the She the People conference; if he came to repel, he succeeded. He might have a path if Trump's support fails by attracting significant numbers of disaffected Republican trumpsters in states with open primaries, and we do have to watch for that.

But for our people, all our stronger Democratic candidates are a VP and senators and governors -- or wannabes for the future. No renegades among them, and I think if things went wonky they would rally around a good candidate and do what's best for the party. Belying media spin, we and they really are ideologically united, same ideals, same issues and goals, some modest variations in methods.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hortensis (Reply #20)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 11:47 AM

23. I hear you. Nothing anyone can do about it anyway

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to still_one (Reply #23)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 01:41 PM

29. Well, we sure can't, whatever strategies might

 

be developed by those job it is to. We live in interesting times. (!)

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hortensis (Reply #29)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 01:53 PM

33. Tes we certainly do Hortensis. Too interesting for my taste

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to still_one (Reply #33)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 02:07 PM

34. At least we're spared some of it.

 



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to watoos (Reply #4)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 09:55 AM

21. Supers always voted for the candidate who got the most delegates.

 

The change is supers can't put the primary winner over the top on the first vote...as we have proportional voting in most states, a candidate might not get the magic number of delegates so the supers put the winning candidate over the top.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to still_one (Reply #2)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 08:25 AM

11. A brokered convention is the absolute last thing to worry about

 

This gets trotted out every cycle no matter how many candidates. "But what will we dooooooo"
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Blue_Adept (Reply #11)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 08:44 AM

13. The fact is the SD rules have changed dramatically. This does NOT get trotted out every election

 

cycle. We have 20 candidates running. That is NOT a common occurance.

After Super Tuesday, you probably will lose half that, and have probably about 10 who will stay in for most of the remainder.

Democratic primaries are not winner take all, they are on a proportional basis.

I think the probability is pretty high for a brokered convention since the rules changes, and the number of candidates running.

The new rules mandate that SD refrain from voting on the first ballot unless a candidate has enough pledged candidates based on the primary results.

I think it is a pretty high water mark that one candidate will have enough pledged delegates after the first ballot.

One positive change from the reforms is that Caucuses are required to have absentee voting or to otherwise allow those who cannot participate in person to join in
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to still_one (Reply #13)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 08:45 AM

14. I disagree, it has gotten trotted out on DU regularly going back to '04

 

It varies as to when you see it during the campaign season, but it invariably comes up that someone is worried about it in a pearl-clutching kind of way.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Blue_Adept (Reply #14)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 08:48 AM

15. We don't usually have 20 candidates run, with 10 probably still in after Super Tuesday, but we will

 

see
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to still_one (Reply #13)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 09:57 AM

22. On the second vote supers can vote for the winner of the primary as they

 

always do.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 07:15 AM

6. Here's another one: History shows that the early leader

 

in the primary a lot more often than not is chosen to be the nominee. America already knows Biden's long history as part of the Democratic leadership through a few eras, and how it all appears today, including his prior failed presidential candidacies and its culmination as Obama's "co-chief," and he was consistently well out in the lead months before he announced.

With so many candidates and with capricious media and widespread insidiously hostile RW infiltration, we can no doubt expect a bumpy course, but Vice President Biden is the candidate to beat.

Btw, the NYT reports he starts the race with $0. (!) Time for this household to send a first ActBlue donation, maybe double it since I'm so happy and grateful for his high-minded call to the nation.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hortensis (Reply #6)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 08:58 AM

18. We all donated in my house. THREE FOUR BIDEN.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 08:03 AM

8. Who can beat Trump?

 

Try to visualize a photo of Trump side by side with each of the Dem. candidates and ask yourself who can beat Trump in a very dirty hard campaign.

Being one of the most "liked" politicians in the country, if we analyze why he is so popular, we will realize he just oozes a strong moral character and integrity. That is what will beat Trump.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Cicada (Original post)


Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 08:28 AM

12. What were Hillary's odds?

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to SweetieD (Reply #12)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 08:51 AM

16. Predictit had her about the same before election day

 

Predictit was more accurate than the “experts” figuring at the end Trump had a one in four chance. Nate Silver had it pretty much the same, as I recall, Trump one in three to one in four.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 08:57 AM

17. Those are damn good odds. Donate!!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 09:38 AM

19. Our Friends

 

in Europe would be very happy, they like Joe Biden.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 11:59 AM

24. Bovada still has Bernie with better odds

 

Bernie +300

Biden +350 (was +400 yesterday)

Has Dems winning over Reps no matter who runs against Trump.

https://www.bovada.lv/sports/politics

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 12:09 PM

25. FiveThirtyEight has interesting polling results...

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 12:27 PM

26. like others have said, the democratic candidate field would be a could start for a cabinet AND

 

department heads. Hell, that might be a great Biden campaign strategy.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 12:30 PM

27. No way Biden appoints Warren to treasury. He is raising Big$$$

 

biden has always worked for banks and credit card companies. His record is clear on money issues.

It is what it is and we should not deceive ourselves.

We did not know the facts of Russian interference in 2016 and are suffering enormously, so let's be clear about facts now.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to delisen (Reply #27)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 01:51 PM

31. Who are the biggest employers in Delaware? What would happen if they went

 

elsewhere?

Let's be clear about those facts. No apologies, no excuses, I hate the vote, but those ARE facts, too.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 01:17 PM

28. Gotta say -- I like them odds!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Pete Buttigieg

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Response to Blue Owl (Reply #28)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 01:52 PM

32. I want ALL of our candidates to do well. We're very lucky. nt

 

ETA: I actually have my Pete 2020 bumper stickers being mailed to me -- love Pete, too!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 01:49 PM

30. What were the odds of Trump winning? nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 03:02 PM

35. That's a brutal interpretation of the numbers

 

Sorry, it doesn't work that way. You can't merely multiply numbers from different markets, ones that are not absolutely working in concert.

A similar example would be late in the NFL playoffs and a team that let's say has a 25% theoretical chance at winning the AFC Championship Game, and 19% chance of winning the Super Bowl. Then that 25% team pulls the upset and wins the AFC title game. You don't merely multiply the 19% by 4 and proclaim they have a 76% likelihood of winning the Super Bowl. It depends on the other market, the NFC Championship Game and who comes out of there. Both games and how they unfold will determine perception and odds, just like the separate political campaigns and conventions of both parties.

We will never be 76% likely against Donald Trump. Incumbents receive enormous benefit of a doubt. That's why perception here differs so strongly from the betting markets. Even when posters here were proclaiming that Trump had no chance in 2020 he was still trading at reasonable numbers in the markets, and the GOP as a whole was only a minor underdog toward 2020.

It is difficult for me to tell how Biden will fare during the primary season. But I am not going overboard on the chances of someone who has attempted this multiple times previously and never been a serious contender down the stretch. That signals vulnerability. And vulnerability doesn't decrease once a candidate reaches that age.

Biden will have to dominate the debates and the polling to become nominee. I think the 25% is overstated toward his true odds. In a huge field the last thing a sharp gambler does is take the lukewarm marginal favorite. The Kentucky Derby had a 20 year stretch of the favorite losing, from 1980-1999. The common denominator during that period was that the great odds-on favored horses like Seattle Slew and Spectacular Bid were no longer showing up, and instead the oddsmaker was forced to make somebody the favorite among a 20-horse field of mush. The mush favorite would typically be in the 3/1 or 4/1 range and none of them got there.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Amy Klobuchar

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Response to Cicada (Original post)

Thu Apr 25, 2019, 05:31 PM

36. Christie ignores the Russian influence on 2016 but Mueller and C!A have not

 

Republicans are invested in having us ignore Russia
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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