538: 16 Candidates Now Qualify For The First Democratic Primary Debates

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Former Vice President Joe Biden’s presidential announcement wasn’t the only big 2020 news this week: According to our research, 16 Democratic candidates have now qualified for the first two primary debates this summer, counting Biden, who only needed to enter the race to qualify, and Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, who was put over the top by a new survey from Reuters/Ipsos. And as a result, author Marianne Williamson has also qualified as a major candidate by FiveThirtyEight’s standards — more on how the two are connected and how she qualified in a moment. (And yes, this means we’ll have a profile on how she could win the Democratic primary next week.)

First, Ryan earned a spot on the debate stage this week by getting support from 1 percent of respondents in that Reuters/Ipsos poll. Earlier this month, he received 1 percent and 2 percent support in polls from Monmouth University and the University of New Hampshire, which is enough to get him a lectern, according to the Democratic National Committee’s rules.

This year, the DNC declared that candidates can qualify for the first two debates by earning at least 1 percent of the vote in three national or early-primary-state polls conducted by qualifying pollsters, or by receiving donations from at least 65,000 unique donors, including at least 200 individual donors in at least 20 states. By our count, 16 candidates have now met at least one of the two criteria, and at least six candidates have cleared both the polling and fundraising thresholds.

Which candidates have made the primary debates? Democratic presidential candidates or potential candidates, by qualifying criteria for the first two primary debates, as of April 25, 2019


Pete Buttigieg

Kamala Harris

Beto O’Rourke

Bernie Sanders

Elizabeth Warren

Andrew Yang

Joe Biden

Cory Booker

Julian Castro

John Delaney

Kirsten Gillibrand

John Hickenlooper

Jay Inslee

Amy Klobuchar

Tim Ryan

Tulsi Gabbard

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/16-candidates-now-qualify-for-the-first-democratic-primary-debates/

[Drunken Irishman]

1. Each candidate will get 2 minutes talking time for the entire debate...

This'll be a shit-show and renders the debate a farce. Imagine if everyone gets a chance to respond to the question?

Hell, they'll probably have to cut down the amount of time a candidate has to introduce themselves with their opening statement (generally two minutes) to a minute each. If each candidate is given two minutes, as has been customary, to start the debate, it would take a half hour to get through the first question.

Then what happens when it inevitably focuses on only a handful of candidates? I'm sure people will complain when Tim Ryan only gets one question and one response and Joe Biden receives five questions.

Really, the Dems should do what the GOP did in 2016 - have an undercard for the other candidates who poll above 1% but less than 5%.

[thesquanderer]

2. The article covered that...

The DNC plans to split up each debate over two consecutive nights to accommodate up to 10 candidates per night; if more than 20 candidates qualify, it will choose qualifiers based on a ranking system that incorporates both thresholds.

[honest.abe]

4. That helps.

Thanks for clarifying.

[honest.abe]

3. This is not good in my opinion. It will be a joke with very little said by any candidate.

The cutoff needs to be higher.