***BREAKING LONE STAR STATE POLL*** Everyday Joe 23% Beto 22% Sanders 17%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Biden
23%

O'Rourke
22%
Sanders
17%
Buttigieg
8%
Warren
7%
Castro
4%
Yang
3%
Harris
3%
Klobuchar
3%

http://emersonpolling.com/2019/04/28/2020-texas-biden-and-beto-in-dead-heat-in-democratic-primary/

[Skya Rhen]

1. Proof that Joe Biden is the clear choice

if we want the strongest chance to beat Trump...

[crazytown]

2. Is Texas turning blue next year?

[Kahuna7]

6. You never know.... The head to heads are...

In general election matchups, Trump is in statistical dead heats with four of the top six Democratic opponents, and leads the other two. In a Donald Trump versus Joe Biden matchup, the two are almost exactly even at 50% for Biden and 49% for Trump. Beto O’Rourke versus Trump is very similar, with 50% going to Beto and 50% supporting Trump. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are the other Democrats within the margin, with Trump receiving 51% to Sanders’ 49% and Trump leading Warren 53% to 47%. The rest fall outside of the margin, with Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg each receiving 46% support to Trump’s 54%.

[crazytown]

10. What I am saying is the 'Proof Biden is the clear choice'

lies in MI, PA, WI, not Texas.

Beto did a lot of good work in Texas. DEm officeholder across the state owe their positions to him. I congratulate him

[Laura PourMeADrink]

23. But, if we can find a pair that has the best chance in both?

I fear that TRussia will rig WI, PA, and or MI. That means we need insurance. NC, FL, TX, AZ?? And, we could lose NV....

[crazytown]

26. Look I'm with you

We need a thumping big victory in 2020 that humiliates the GOP and takes back the Senate. So I get your point, losing Texas would certainly make them squirm.

What I want is the sort of blow out that makes Trumpism, or anything like out shut out of our politics for good. A pipe dream perhaps but ‘winning’ is not enough for me.


I’m think of Howard Dean: ‘Were gonna take Florida, and Georgia, and North Carolina and Texas’ Yeeargh!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

28. Man, I miss him. Wish he hadn't dropped out and i

Wish like hell we had his brain in charge now of DNC. Our party always seems to take "tired, cautious, been there" approach.

I am with you on blow out. Just can't help but think we have the reason to get out and vote more than they do. I'd crawl on glass for miles with bronchitis and a fever to vote

[crazytown]

33. Before the Presidency, Pete Buttigieg ran for DNC Chair.

A 50 State State strategy with Howard Dean’s active backing. Two of the smartest guys on the block.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

36. So it was him. I remember thinking we HAD to go

with the young tech savvy person and been meaning to look it up to see who it was. Could be our single biggest mistake going forward picking Perez.

Evidently DNC has zero ad budget?? Could think of a zillion ads we could have run during this trump travesty. They should start now drumming in the fact that Russia interfered and trump/gop did nothing to stop. In fact they even cut funds.

[crazytown]

42. Yes it was Pete. What a loss.

All I ask of Perez and Co is that they listen. Trump’s reelection committee and the RNC are now fully merged and have hit the ground running. As much as possible should be activated by the DNC now.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

50. Totally agree. And we must look at this thru

TODAY'S media eyes. These people will lie and cheat and we have to be sharp and very savvy and create ability to respond quickly.

[PatSeg]

11. Great graph!

It also shows why we need to get rid of the electoral college. There are plenty of "blue" votes in most "red" states. We need for every vote to count.

[Amimnoch]

44. Texas still distinctly leans red.

That said, it does become "in play" and "battleground" with the right selection of candidates.

O'Rourke being on the ticket, and especially at the head of the ticket WILL make it a battleground, and WILL force the Republican Party and Cheetolini to divert a huge amount of campaigning effort into Texas. It will not be an easy win or foregone conclusion, but it does put the 38 electoral votes of the state into play and out of the tRumpublicon "safe" column.

I feel Joe Biden, and Tulsi could also get Texas into battleground territory, but I don't think it will be as contentious or winnable as Beto would.

I don't see any of the other candidates currently running putting Texas into battleground territory.

I do think with Joaquin Castro running against Cornyn for Senate, combined with a Beto Ticket the synergy of the campaigns could potentially gain us a Senate Seat + the office of the Presidency.

Without Beto, unseating Cornyn becomes a much longer shot, and we will likely lose the seats we gained in the House from 2018 (The Beto effect definitely pushed my own Congresswoman Lizzie P. Fletcher over the finish line turning my district Blue for the first time since the 1960's when George H.W. Bush took that seat.)

[crazytown]

46. Thanks for the info.

I wonder if anyone has put together lists of Dem office holders who have Beto’s 2018 campaign to thank for their success.

I remember the 2018 election night. That Beto and Gillum came so close hurt like hell. It’s some consolation that Beto’s effort has left something solid to build on.

[Amimnoch]

47. I was quite active on the ground for Lizzie's campaign.

Wrecked 2 pairs of cheap shoes canvas with the "minivan" app.

Lizzie herself is a great and worthy candidate for what she did for her own effort, but having heard what was energizing voters to get out to the polls and cast their ballot.. Beto deserves much credit for her win as well. He had a very energizing effect, which for Texas is the only way for us to take wins. Especially in a heavily gerrymandered district like mine.

Right now, people seem to think that his drop in coverage is an indicator. I've seen the way he works it, he is moving all over the place right now.. new campaign stops every single day. he is meeting with voters. Listening to voters. Developing his campaign and office policies directly off of what voters tell him. When he does start hitting the networks again, it will be with a campaign of solid, defined positions that match what the electorate genuinely wants and matters to them.

The other one that really hurt from that night was Abrams.. Just imagine the panic the tRumpublicons would undergo if there was a Beto/Abrams ticket.. suddenly Georgia AND Texas become battlegrounds that they will have to dump money into just to defend.. 2 large electoral college count states that otherwise would likely be safe and not require much campaign funding.

[crazytown]

48. Thank you. So what you are saying I think

is that Beto develops his campaign, including policy, ground the ground up, rather than top down. (What a concept )

From what I’ve seen he’s a sensitive man. When a reporter asked him if he was an empty shirt, he actually looked hurt. I felt like saying to him, these people are not your friends.

Going to bed on election night I had hopes Stacy could pull out a win. Earlier, there was an awful moment when 538 projections were moving towards a Republican win. That’s about the time Beto’s numbers were coming up.

Anyway, he should be proud. I’m looking forward to going through his climate change proposals.

[still_one]

5. More likely an indicator that we are headed for a brokered convention

[honest.abe]

7. I doubt that.

Things will begin to sort out after Super Tuesday.

[still_one]

13. Not so sure how you can be si confident in that. Democratic primaries are not winner take

all, they are proportional. As of right now I don’t see how anyway will win on the first ballot

[honest.abe]

14. Past history.

Whenever there is a long list of candidates many drop out after it becomes clear who the front runners are. The main thing that puts the breaks on a faltering campaign is funding dries up.

[still_one]

20. You might be right since a good number of large states have moved their primaries up to Super

Tuesday, but at the same time I think even if most of the candidates drop out after Super Tuesday, which I agree with you, there will still remain several viable candidates, and those that drop out will still have their pledged delegates, and unless those candidate release their pledged delegates, at this time I think it is a very high bar for any candidate to win on the first ballot

[honest.abe]

30. Entirely possible but unlikely based on past history.

The last actual brokered convention was in 1952.

[still_one]

37. I know, but appreciate your insight

[Demsrule86]

41. On the second ballot the supers can put the winner of the primary over the top...this is how it has

always worked albeit on the first ballot now it works on the second ballot.

[still_one]

45. That is true, but there are less SD now I believe, and while of course this is all

speculation, and it is a long way from Super Tuesday, unless Super Tuesday shows a clear winner way ahead in pledged delegates, I am not so sure

I think the two largest states, California and Texas will be splitting their votes, though I suspect the red states will show a clear winner., but I don’t know if that will be enough with California and Texas splitting the votes

Hopefully my speculation is wrong. After all we are still a long way off, and a lot of those undecided may make this a moot issue

[Demsrule86]

54. There is enough...and on the second ballot the Supers will vote for the winner of the primary...they

are released from voting for their state...this is what supers have always done...they will put the candidate over the threshold. The winner of the primary must be the nominee.

[calguy]

55. We aren't headed for a brokered convention

We're heading for the very beginning of primary season. Good Greif.

[Renew Deal]

19. 23% proves that?

[Indygram]

22. Anyone that chose any other candidate would also vote for Beto

But it's unclear if all those that Voted for Beto in the poll would vote for anyone else. Texas knows Beto and he can turn it blue. Unlikely that anyone else can.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

24. I think a Biden/Beto ticket could win Texas. Based

On my experiences since I've lived here, the biggest bigotry is against women. Hell, even many women wouldn't do it. My MIL jumps from the table any time my FIL's iced tea glass get below half full.

[Indygram]

31. I used to think Biden was the answer...

but after hearing Beto I am convinced he's going to be the nominee. I'm even more convinced of that after hearing Biden on the view. I don't think he's going to appeal to young voters enough. Beto's brand new Climate Change policy proposal is pretty incredible...including farmers from the midwest and even includes coal miners. I will vote for Biden if he's the nominee and if he is, I do think he would need to pick Beto. That being said...Biden doesn't inspire or motivate me. Beto does.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

38. That's why them as a team would be so perfect.

[Indygram]

39. I want Beto at the top of the ticket

And I doubt Biden would be VP again. I actually like Beto/Klobuchar or Beto/Abrahms

[Laura PourMeADrink]

52. I understand. I love Beto. He'd make a great

President. I worked for him here. Best ever..warm evening rally at Park across river from blinking lights of Austin. There were thousands and thousands of young and old..all together in harmony. Beautiful thing. I just always had the feeling he wasn't quite ready for prez. I think he's an idea man and a doer. But he never seemed to exhibit a tremendous amount of intellectualism. That could be ok. Just think if he was with someone else for a while, he could establish more gravitas. Hope you don't take that as a diss.

[LonePirate]

3. I wish O'Rourke was running for TX Senate instead.

Having a well-liked Dem nominee for President and TX Senate would make the state a toss-up in 2020.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

25. I think you are right...but for some reason, I think

Biden could have made a deal with him. Get national exposure, drop out, and we'll run as a team. Perfect mix of age, wisdom, experience, decency with youth, optimism and more liberal stances. Biden will restore the presidency and relationships with our allies back to normal and Beto lead our future. In other words, like Avalon said "un-fuck America"

[TexasTowelie]

4. Yea for Beto!

He is in excellent striking distance of taking the state and a nice chunk of delegates since the 15% rule is in effect. Adjusting for that rul the top three candidates would take 37%, 35%, and 28% of the delegates.

[honest.abe]

8. Also Biden is the only candidate that leads Trump head-to-head.. albeit very slight.

[still_one]

15. Statistically the top three are essentially tied. Also unless this poll factors in the electoral

college on a state by state basis, it is hard to determine the actual stats

The only way we are going to win is if people come out in force to vote, especially in those critical swing states

In my view it is way too far away for any poll to predict what will happen right now. Too much can happen

[honest.abe]

17. Yes, of course there is no significant difference between those but..

its just notable that Joe has the best numbers against Trump. That's all.

[still_one]

21. sure

[SharonClark]

9. "Everyday Joe"?

Stop with the stupid names for Biden.

[Kahuna7]

12. LOL!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. You can vote for your favorite one.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/128794211

[Laura PourMeADrink]

29. That one sucks for sure.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

56. I've been informed Uncle Joe is verboten.

[Gothmog]

16. Texas May be in play

Link to tweet

[Laura PourMeADrink]

32. YES! I saw it first hand here. Beto was on the rise and

Then weeks before they unleashed the Mombook smears. They spread like wildfire among the low-infos. The Beto plateaued. If trump advertising this early...it IS in play.

Whoever runs need to get a team with ad money to just watch Facebook and instantly run ads to counter. Use the same Target list.

[Funtatlaguy]

27. Why is Castro so low?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

35. Think because he comes off with such little humor and energy.

Totally just my take. He's bright and qualified so it must mean his demeanor is way off.

He, as running mate might win TX.

[Funtatlaguy]

43. Has to be demoralizing since, like Beto, he's from Texas.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

51. Very true. Seems same for Booker. And

Moulton and Ryan...both good but timing bad - late entry + no name recognition.

BTW..love Warren... especially coming out for impeachment. Just worried she couldn't win here in Texas (doubt any women could). I want Texas blue. But if there's a sure path without it would be ok

[oasis]

34. Whomp! There it is.

[Laelth]

40. Interesting. Thanks for the post. n/t

-Laelth

[Gothmog]

49. Texas will definitely be blue in 2020

Link to tweet

[Cha]

53. K!