Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
Pete Buttigieg You are in the Buttigieg 2020 Group. Only members who have selected Pete Buttigieg as their preferred Democratic presidential candidate are permitted to post in this Group.
6 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Pete: America & the World: National Security for a New Era -Video of his Foreign Policy speech today (Original Post) Celerity Jun 2019 OP
A great speech! Thanks for posting it in both places, my dear Celerity! CaliforniaPeggy Jun 2019 #1
yw Peggy!! Celerity Jun 2019 #2
I also thank you, Celerity True Dough Jun 2019 #3
I am too, as long as he remains in the race I am all-in! Celerity Jun 2019 #4
That's a lot of info to digest True Dough Jun 2019 #5
I love quantitative analysis, especial sub-theorems of game theory, such as possibility theory Celerity Jun 2019 #6

True Dough

(17,090 posts)
3. I also thank you, Celerity
Tue Jun 11, 2019, 07:59 PM
Jun 2019

And, like you, I'm thoroughly impressed by Elizabeth Warren. That said, I'm sticking with Pete!

Celerity

(42,632 posts)
4. I am too, as long as he remains in the race I am all-in!
Tue Jun 11, 2019, 08:29 PM
Jun 2019

I so so hope he starts to gain traction with non-white Democratic voters. That is still his major Achilles heel atm.

That said, I am thrilled that he is basically tied (with Bernie and Warren) for 2nd in Iowa!

Bernie has a hard ceiling, Warren does not. IF Bernie dropped out (I cannot see that happening, even if he gets 4th in IA, and gets smashed in NH, NV, SC) and told his supporters to all back Warren (and I posit that IF Bernie truly cared about his pet issues, he would do this as Warren is amazingly similar in policy, and is a far better, far more detailed messenger with far less baggage as well), Biden would be in big big trouble.

Biden is sliding in multiple national and state polls (Dems and Dem-leaning voters) now. Africans-Americans are saving his arse atm, and I fully believe this is significantly due to his Obama ties and the innate social conservatism of older, (especially Southern) black voters, and linked to their religiosity (which also hurts Pete, as much like RW fundies, their brand of Christianity is unfortunately rooted in homophobia as one of it underpinnings ).

Here are two examples (and both these polls were not completely taken after the Hyde flip-flop-flip, so do not fully reflect the impact there, which may well bode further slippage) minus the spin of concentrating on mainly Rump v Biden numbers only.

Today's new A- rated Quinnipiac University national poll shows Biden sliding downward in support (down 8 points in last 6 weeks) from Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters.

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us06112019_trends_urox72.pdf/



That poll shows SIX (Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Harris, Booker) of our potential candidates beating Trump by at least 5 points (which is literally 2 and a half times greater a margin than Sec Clinton won the popular vote by in 2016.)

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2627


Trump also trails each of those 6 Democrats among independents by at least 15 points.





Also, in the new A+ rated Des Moines Register/CNN Iowa Poll, Biden is down 8 points from his highwater mark of 32%.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/09/biden-democrats-sanders-warren-buttigieg-harris-iowa-poll

Biden 24%
Sanders 16%
Warren 15%
Buttigieg 14%
Harris 7%


no one else is above 2%




True Dough

(17,090 posts)
5. That's a lot of info to digest
Tue Jun 11, 2019, 08:49 PM
Jun 2019

Your posts are often packed with informative details.

First thing that really struck me looking at the bottom poll is how high the "actively considering" results are for Beto, Booker and even Klobuchar -- three candidates who have been struggling to get traction. If they needed a reason not to lose hope, that poll is it.

Celerity

(42,632 posts)
6. I love quantitative analysis, especial sub-theorems of game theory, such as possibility theory
Tue Jun 11, 2019, 09:24 PM
Jun 2019

interpolated into an imprecise probability theory schema.

If that is your cuppa, do some reading on Dempster–Shafer theory (DST), ie. evidence theory. The truly cutting edge research now is being done to try and counter a potential Ludic fallacy (commonly borne out/manifested as a Black Swan event) corrupting the outcome-predictive dataset.

Yes, I am a geekette

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»Buttigieg 2020»Pete: America & the World...