For example, after the yield curve inverted in Feb. 2006, it was Dec. 2007 before the recession began. So this could end up being a flaming bag of dog poop on the incoming Democratic president's White House doorstep some time in early 2021.

Forbes published a handy chart in March 2019 showing different recessions and their yield curve antecedents. Note that several other times, it was about a year between yield curve inversion and the onset of a recession, so it's an inexact science, that's for sure.

One thing I read today is that the government has been buying a lot of Treasury bonds, artificially tightening supply and thereby decreasing the long-term interest rates they pay out. So it's hard to tell if this is really the usual indicator of investor confidence.

However, as this DU thread notes, more and more investors are dumping stocks. So that's another signal that rough times could be ahead.

I confess, I have mixed feelings about it. A stock market downturn will cause a lot of suffering, when that translates to layoffs, retirement fund shrinkage, and other economic problems. However, it could be what it takes to get rid of the Mar-a-Lago Menace, so it may be worth the suffering.

Looking for informed conjecture from other DUers — how likely do you think it is that we’ll have another Federal govt. shutdown this fall?

Supposedly there has been some effort to keep us from going over a “fiscal cliff,” and maybe the Republicans’ appetite for this kind of cruel melodrama has diminished. But there is an appropriations fight looming, and I don’t trust them at all to negotiate in good faith.

I confess, my reason for asking is partly selfish — we have an October family trip planned to the Southwestern U.S., which will be considerably less fun if national parks & monuments are closed to the public. Plans B and C include trips to state parks and more citified activities.

Found the sources below — anybody have better information to share?

https://www.govexec.com/management/2019/08/senate-sends-2-year-budget-deal-trump-shifting-focus-shutdown-averting-spending-bills/158875/

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/26/congress-funding-bill-1681071

in the woods near the lake our family often visited. My sister and I would actually see them, just disappearing underground as we approached.

I also believed that all kinds of exotic sea creatures might appear at the shore at the beach where we vacationed in summer, if only one were there at the right time. Ten-foot-long sawfish, hammerhead sharks, those weird bottom-of-the-sea fish with rows of glowing lights along their sides and alluring appendages sprouting from their foreheads to help them catch prey — these could show up, and did, right where I waded and swam every day.

I really enjoyed this big-hearted movie about a 1980s Pakistani-British teenager inspired by the music of Bruce Springsteen. And I’m not even a fan of “The Boss.” It’s directed by Gurinder Chadha (Bend It Like Beckham) and features a soundtrack of not only Springsteen songs but also some great original music by A.R. Rahman (Slumdog Millionaire, The Hundred Foot Journey).

If you are a Springsteen devotee, you already know about this movie and saw it four times in its opening weekend. But even if you’re not, I highly recommend it. It’ll leave you with a lighter step and a fresh outlook on things — at least it did me.