July 28, 2014

Latest YouGov poll: Abbott 54 Davis 37

Before the TexTrib has their story up, you can look at the poll tabs.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/171TRD7t1gdxkpUv7JVgbQDwAYKLPH8w1VmdzVGeRlgc/edit#gid=1134636330

DK says the poll is crap, which we knew already.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/07/28/1317192/-YouGov-finds-rosy-picture-for-GOP-in-Senate-and-governor-races-but-the-data-merit-scrutiny?detail=hide

Alameel trails Cornyn 51-35, and generic D Congressional candidate is behind the R 50-31.

7% of respondents in these results say they are NOT voting. Not sure and other make up the remaining small percentages to total 100. There were no third parties or candidates named in the polls.

The spin is going to be the same as it ever was.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/tx/texas_governor_abbott_vs_davis-3596.html

July 20, 2014

Austin, mind you

Meanwhile, a Politix poll (for those unfamiliar, Politix is an "opt-in" national polling outfit that over-represents the very, very conservative POV) has 62% of respondents saying they would vote for an atheist for president. Texas is in the minority on that one as well.

http://politix.topix.com/debate/1140-would-you-vote-for-an-atheist-president

No survey question about whether Politixers would vote for an LBGTQ person as president. (Everybody already knows the answer to that one.)

July 14, 2014

TXGOP's anti-Latino redistricting scheme exposed in emails

http://www.salon.com/2014/07/14/texas_gops_secret_anti_hispanic_plot_smoking_gun_emails_revealed/

On Nov. 17, 2010, Eric Opiela sent an email to Gerard Interiano. A Texas Republican Party associate general counsel, Opiela served at that time as a campaign adviser to the state’s speaker of the House Joe Straus, R-San Antonio; he was about to become the man who state lawmakers understood spoke “on behalf of the Republican Congressmen from Texas,” according to minority voting-rights plaintiffs, who have sued Texas for discriminating against them.

A few weeks before receiving Opiela’s email, Interiano had started as counsel to Straus’ office. He was preparing to assume top responsibility for redrawing the state’s political maps; he would become the “one person” on whom the state’s redistricting “credibility rests,” according to Texas’ brief in voting-rights litigation.

In the Nov. 17, 2010, email, Opelia asked Interiano to look for specific data about Hispanic populations and voting patterns.

“These metrics would be useful to identify the ‘nudge factor’ by which one can analyze which census blocks, when added to a particular district [they] help pull the district’s Total Hispanic pop … to majority status, but leave the Spanish surname RV [registered voters] and TO [turnout] the lowest,” Opiela writes to the mapmaker.

(...)

Two years and seven months after that email exchange — and one year ago on June 25, 2013 — the U.S. Supreme Court issued a 5-4 ruling in Shelby County v. Holder,which struck down a provision of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 that had allowed the federal government to “pre-clear” redistricting maps proposed by Texas and other states with a history of discriminating against minority voters.

In a follow-up email on Nov. 19, 2010, Opiela explained to Interiano that he called his proposed strategy: “OHRVS” or “Optimal Hispanic Republican Voting Strength.” Opiela defined the acronym-friendly term as, “a measure of how Hispanic, and[,] at the same time[,] Republican we can make a particular census block.”

Lawyers for the African-American and Hispanic voting-rights plaintiffs consider Opiela emails “a smoking gun.” The correspondence will play a starring role at a trial scheduled to start today in a San Antonio federal court in a redistricting case, Perez v. Perry. The litigation pits the plaintiffs, who have been joined by the Obama administration, against Texas and its Republican state leaders, including Gov. Rick Perry in his official capacity.

And more from me:

http://brainsandeggs.blogspot.com/2014/07/txgops-anti-latino-redistricting-scheme.html

July 12, 2014

I read 'The Book' as a teenager

It is subtitled: 'On the Taboo Against Knowing Who You Are'. It was seminal.

Later on when I did est in my thirties (it wasn't called 'the Forum' then) I better understood how accurate Watts was.

July 12, 2014

I've always considered polls to be the equivalent of TP

Very important for a few minutes prior to use but in mere moments afterward, its utility quickly spent, a fast flush. Certainly nothing to be talked about, examined, or analyzed for several days afterward.

July 10, 2014

TxDemocrats.org for the caption win

"And then he said he was running for president again."

July 6, 2014

Better than another rant blaming Nader.

Not by much, though.

Even agreeing with your facts, there's not a lot that can be done about electronic voting at this point. It's widespread, deemed trustworthy even by Democratic election officials (Dana Debeauvoir in Travis County -- Austin, TX -- is just one of many) and not going away anytime soon.

The Oregon model of everyone voting on a paper mailed ballot would be the best, but most states, blue ones and red ones, simply aren't going do it.

That ship has sailed.

July 5, 2014

It will be.

It's a gift for Harris County Democrats and statewides on the November ballot, as it boosts turnout in the city limits, but NOT in the red-as-a-baboon's-ass suburbs.

My take:

http://brainsandeggs.blogspot.com/2014/07/happy-fourth-houston-democrats.html

And Wayne's take.

... Equal Rights should NOT be a Democratic or a Republican issue. Sad though it is, the fight for HERO has become politicized, with most of the opposition’s coalition being Republican (again, not all but most). Because of this, a referendum will likely serve as a motivator for Democrats to vote in Houston and Harris County. It could even stand to boost turnout for Democratic candidates. Again as mentioned in the above, this is specifically the city of Houston, whose electorate has already proven that they vote on the Progressive side. This assumption could be wrong, but barring some smoking gun to move the issue, it’s not likely. Giving Houston’s Democrats another big reason to get out the vote is sure to have statewide implications.

http://texasleftist.com/2014/07/why-a-hero-referendum-could-be-good-for-houston-and-texas/

Annise Parker and the HGLBT Caucus and progressive Houston Democratic voters have beaten this religious conservative African American/Republican coalition twice already, in 2011 (Gene Locke) and 2013 (Ben Hall). They will again.

In case you didn't know, Harris County is where some number between 1/5 and 1/4 of the entire state of Texas' Democratic votes are cast. It's a swing county, about 48-47 between Rs and Ds (Libs, Greens, indys and undervotes make up the remaining 5%. The winner is always the one who gets their voters to the polls).

It's the battleground. It holds the key to turning Texas blue.

Yes, we need every vote in Austin and Travis County, Dallas and Dallas County, and the RGV and we also need to erode some of the conservative advantages in Fort Worth, in East and West Texas, and in the suburbs and exurbs around the metros. But Houston can swing an election because of the density of the votes there. That is to say, IF GOTV happens according to plan (and effort). It happens in presidential election years... and it needs to start happening in midterm ones.

One hundred and twenty days to go to Election Day. About ninety to the end of the voter registration period (make sure your ID is proper). About a hundred days or so until early voting begins.

It is ON, folks. 2014 will be won or lost on the basis of what happens during this stretch run to the finish line. When someone says, 'nobody pays attention until after Labor Day', laugh loudly in their face. And go back to work.

July 1, 2014

Houston media helped spread lies about city's NDO

Houston media outlets helped spread misinformation about the city's newly enacted non-discrimination ordinance, parroting the talking points of anti-LGBT groups working to repeal the measure.

On May 28, the Houston City Council voted 11 to six to approve the Houston Equal Rights Ordinance (HERO), which prohibits discrimination based on categories including race, religion, disability, sexual orientation, and gender identity. Opponents of the ordinance, led by the Houston Area Pastors Council, immediately announced a repeal drive and have spent the month of June attempting to collect the 17,000 valid signatures needed to put the measure up for a vote in November.

Anti-LGBT activists, like Texas Values' Jonathan Saenz and Fox News' Mike Huckabee, focused particularly on the measure's protections for transgender people, asserting that the protections will make it easier for sexual predators to sneak into women's restrooms. That myth has been extensively debunked by independent experts in states and cities that have already adopted similar protections.

Many embedded links at source.

http://mediamatters.org/blog/2014/06/30/houston-media-helped-spread-lies-about-the-city/199931

The locals will get an opportunity to redeem themselves in the fall, as it appears that God's Army of H-Town Homophobes has collected enough signatures to place a repeal initiative on the November ballot.

And that might just be a godsend for Harris County Dems, as it could goose turnout from liberals.