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Hometown: Cleveland
Current location: Ohiohiohiohio
Member since: 2002
Number of posts: 31,182

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The US under Obama has outperformed the world &the market thinks Trump can do better: SELL 8Dec016

The Dow and S&P500 are testing all time highs again. I am selling equities and rebalancing my portfolio toward corporate bonds or cash.

Trump is offering "infrastructure" in the form of long term financing for private tollways and toll bridges. Such financial structures already exist and are bonafide. However, Fat Bastard has nothing that can create public or private spending this year or even next year. Obama put almost a trillion dollars into "shovel ready" projects like the Cuyahoga Innerbelt Bridge that started immediately and finished ahead of schedule. Kudos for Ohio DOT, btw. I don't expect impact for five years and it will be so subtle as to be lost in the mud at the bottom of the data stream.

Corporate tax rates will be cut. Ok, that should free up capital for buying factories and hiring people. However, companies don't know what to do with the profits they have. Some bought up their own shares, which is a zero sum game. Many sat on the cash or created extra dividends: that did not boost the economy with extra sales to those capitalist class consumers. What is surely lacking is a stronger consumer market. Depression of wages has stunted that. American wages feel the pressure of new workers of the world entering the workforce.

Trade. Pence said at Trump's "F--ked You Rally" in Cincinnati that there would be more trade deals. But Fat Bastard campaigned against trade deals. Fat Bastard may have mastered the art of building golf courses, but he is willfully ignorant in matters like international negotiations. He is going to flub trade.

President Obama had an objective and action for doubling US exports in about a decade. Expect that to flatline and that US exporting companies with high value products that create wealth in this country will not be able to add high paying jobs.

Attitude. Republicans think that some sort of dam has broke and that now things will be set to right. They are buying equities on faith. I am going to take advantage of them now. I just have to decide on what is my threshold to buy back in. I am going to sell in lots of the next month. I will probably buy back from those fools if there is a correction of 10%.

Disaster. Fat Bastard likes to taunt the Chinese. His attitude does not reflect that he has some muscular skill of talking tough with our rivals. Au contraire, he is just stupid. He is going to blunder us into an international incident. I would not be surprised if one of those nukes owned by Pakistan finally gets put to use. That would crash everything. How would he deal with a hurricane or earthquake? In any case, the people of Syria are going to be crushed by Putin's boy Assad and we will never vanquish the soul of Islamic State in Levant.
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