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NNadir

NNadir's Journal
NNadir's Journal
December 20, 2021

It's time to get away from the terracentric narrative.

It's time to get away from the terracentric narrative.

I love academia speak, really I do.

"It's time to get away from the terracentric narrative," is academia speak for "Let's talk about the naval actions of the Civil War."

I. LOVE. IT.
December 19, 2021

We had our first post-Covid adventure in live music last night.

We went to the McCarter Theater in Princeton to see The Hot Sardines.

They were fabulous.

We, and everyone else, were required to show an image of our vaccine cards, our ID, and to wear masks throughout the show.

It was wonderful.

Thank you Moderna (and Pfizer, and J&J, Dr. Fauci and President Biden)!

December 19, 2021

India defuses its population bomb: Fertility falls to two children per woman

This is a news item in the current issue of Science: India defuses its population bomb: Fertility falls to two children per woman (Fred Pearce, Science, 16 Dec 2021.)

Subtitle:

Country uses sterilization, contraceptives to reach fertility milestone


It may be open sourced, but here's the opening excerpt:

Back in the 1960s, India faced an exploding population, with a fertility rate of nearly six children per woman. When famine struck, U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson initially refused to deliver food aid, citing the country’s high birth rate. In response, India’s Prime Minister Indira Gandhi dramatically expanded the first national family planning program in a major developing country, offering cash incentives for both men and women to be sterilized. The city of Madras, now called Chennai, paid men $6 a snip.

For the next 60 years, India continued to focus on sterilization as well as contraceptives and education for girls. Now, Indian health officials say the task of defusing their population bomb is finally done. Late last month, the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), a periodic investigation of half a million households, announced a milestone: The country’s fertility rate had for the first time fallen below the widely accepted “replacement level” of 2.1 children per woman. (The U.S. rate is 1.8.) “Women are seeing the wisdom in having fewer children,” says Poonam Muttreja, director of the nonprofit Population Foundation of India.

India’s population growth is not over yet, however. Thanks to past high fertility rates, two-thirds of the population is under 35 years old, and a large cohort of people is now entering childbearing age. Even at replacement fertility rates, the children of these young people will continue to push up numbers, and India may exceed China as the world’s most populous nation as early as next year.

Still, India’s population is set to decline in about 3 decades, putting the country on the same track as a growing number of developing nations, such as its neighbor Bangladesh and Indonesia. India remains well behind China in falling fertility. In China, where the population may be at its peak, official figures put the fertility rate at 1.7 children per woman...


I was personally unaware of the headway being made by India on this score.
December 18, 2021

A letter to the editor in the current issue of Science: A Uranium Miner's Daughter.

I have argued that it is no longer necessary to mine uranium, since uranium and thorium already mined are sufficient in "breed and burn" settings, to provide all of humanities energy needs, and thus eliminate all energy mining, at least for many centuries.

Many modern uranium mines are generally of a leach type. In some cases, for abandoned fracking sites which are known to extract (and dump) radium derived from uranium's decay chain, leach type uranium mines might both clean up the fracking pollution - which will be with humanity forever - while removing uranium. The day of the uranium rock miner is over.

Nevertheless I found this intriguing letter in the current issue of Science:

A uranium miner’s daughter (TANYA J. GALLEGOS Science 16 Dec 2021 Vol 374, Issue 6574 p. 1455)

After serving in Vietnam, my dad moved to Grants, New Mexico, to mine uranium. Every day, he drilled out uranium in deep, poorly ventilated, confined, hot, and dangerous underground tunnels. After work, my mom washed his overalls and lunch bucket, soiled with radioactive dirt. One day, when I was in fourth grade, my dad came home early from the graveyard shift and said he was not going back. At the time, I did not understand the circumstances, but I later learned that the industry had collapsed due to declining uranium prices, leaving the local economy in shambles.

Uranium mining has always been controversial. Uranium fuels non–carbon-emitting nuclear energy, but uranium and its radioactive decay progeny may pose health concerns. Even so, my family is proud of my dad’s work in the mines because it afforded my parents a livelihood and the means to send their three kids to college, a luxury not given to them. With that opportunity, I pursued degrees in environmental engineering. For my PhD, I moved to Michigan to study iron sulfide–based media for use in cleanup of arsenic-contaminated groundwater. It was a difficult transition moving from sunny New Mexico to the cold, snowy upper Midwest, devoid of blue skies, New Mexico green chile sustenance, and, most importantly, my family. I began to question why I had started down this road, so far away from home without a clear vision of my destination...

...I realized that I could apply my expertise to research uranium! The following year, I accepted a Mendenhall postdoc position at the US Geological Survey to study the environmental impacts of uranium mining. Now, with over 14 years of uranium research stimulating my curiosity, I have returned to New Mexico seeking new insights for managing mine waste. It is fitting that my passion for science brought me home again, where it was nurtured from the beginning by a humble, hard-working uranium miner and his wife.


The author writes that during a fellowship in Korea, in one library the only books she could find in English was about uranium miners.



Caption:
The author’s (letter writer) father, shown here, mined uranium in Grants, New Mexico


I wrote, elsewhere on the internet, about how one can find books about uranium mining in lots and lots and lots and lots of places.

Sustaining the Wind Part 3 – Is Uranium Exhaustible?

An excerpt of what I wrote about finding books about uranium miners:

...As I prepared this work, I took some time to wander around the stacks of the Firestone Library at Princeton University where, within a few minutes, without too much effort, I was able to assemble a small pile of books[50] on the terrible case of the Dine (Navajo) uranium miners who worked in the mid-20th century, resulting in higher rates of lung cancer than the general population. The general theme of these books if one leafs through them is this: In the late 1940’s mysterious people, military syndics vaguely involved with secret US government activities show up on the Dine (Navajo) Reservation in the “Four Corners” region of the United States, knowing that uranium is “dangerous” and/or “deadly” to convince naïve and uneducated Dine (Navajos) to dig the “dangerous ore” while concealing its true “deadly” nature. The uranium ends up killing many of the miners, thus furthering the long American history of genocide against the Native American peoples. There is a conspiratorial air to all of it; it begins, in these accounts, with the cold warrior American military drive to produce nuclear arms and then is enthusiastically taken up by the “evil” and “venal” conspirators who foist the “crime” of nuclear energy on an unsuspecting American public, this while killing even more innocent Native Americans.

Now...
December 18, 2021

Three African Africans Are Included In Nature's Top 10 People Who Shaped Science.

The article is here and is probably open sourced: Nature’s 10 Ten people who helped shape science in 2021

The subtitle:

An Omicron investigator, a Mars explorer and an AI ethics pioneer are some of the people behind the year’s big research stories.|An Omicron investigator, a Mars explorer and an AI ethics pioneer are some of the people behind the year’s big research stories.


Africa, as a continent, is still suffering under the weight of its colonial past, and it's important to humanity as a whole to recognize the importance of Africa is building a sustainable and equitable world.

The three African Africans, with subtitles, are:

Winnie Byanyima: Vaccine warrior

This UN leader knew that vaccine equity wouldn’t happen without a fight.


Timnit Gebru: AI ethics leader

After losing her job at Google, an artificial-intelligence pioneer founded an independent institute to raise questions about ethics in technology.


Tulio de Oliveira: Variant tracker

A bioinformatician in South Africa helped to identify troubling variants of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.


Two of the "Top 10" African Africans were born in Africa; one in Brazil, having moved to South Africa.

One of the African Africans is an immigrant in the United States.

Excerpts on each follow:

Winnie Byanyima:

Before vaccines for COVID-19 even existed, Winnie Byanyima knew that distributing them equitably would be a challenge. In early 2020, she was one of the few voices warning that low- and middle-income countries could not rely on donations alone to vaccinate their people. The only way to get life-saving shots to everyone, she argued, would be by helping as many companies as possible to manufacture them and by setting up systems of distribution to get them where they’re needed...

...This May, Byanyima and her colleagues celebrated an unexpected victory when the United States — historically a strident patent defender — threw its weight behind a proposal from South Africa and India to waive the IP protections surrounding COVID-19 vaccines in the hope of bolstering manufacturing capacity...

...Byanyima says it was this thirst for justice that caused her to leave her career in aeronautical engineering soon after the overthrow of Uganda’s former authoritarian president Idi Amin. In 1981, she joined a guerilla movement fighting to restore democracy and human rights to Uganda. They prevailed, and by 1994, she was elected to Uganda’s parliament. She was appointed head of UNAIDS in 2019, where she is putting equity at the centre of the programme’s work around the world. Global-health-policy researcher Matthew Kavanagh took leave from a position at Georgetown University in Washington DC, to work for Byanyima because of the way she targets underlying inequalities that foster the spread of HIV...


I recently commented elsewhere at DU on efforts of scientists and engineers in Uganda to participate in the fight against climate change: The International Atomic Energy Agency Has Reviewed Uganda's Nuclear Infrastructure.

Timnit Gebru:

Timnit Gebru, a researcher who studies the ethics of artificial intelligence (AI), says her past year has been — in a word — horrible. Last December, she lost her job at Google after a row over the tech giant’s vetting of her work. The highly publicized ousting shocked scientists, including some in the firm, and thousands of researchers rallied to support her, amplifying her concerns around anti-Black discrimination in AI, and around the harms that the technology can cause to marginalized groups in society.

Now, Gebru has forged her own path. On 2 December this year, exactly 12 months after her split with Google, she launched a research institute to study AI independently of big tech companies. The events of the past year, she says, reflect a growing realization that the faults of AI should not be framed as technical problems: they are a symptom of the flawed environment in which the technology is developed...

Born in Ethiopia to parents from Eritrea, Gebru fled the region during civil war as a teenager and eventually arrived in the United States as a refugee. During her PhD at Stanford University in California, she co-founded a ‘Black in AI’ group with computer scientist Rediet Abebe. And while working at Microsoft, she and computer scientist Joy Buolamwini reported that facial-recognition software performed less well at identifying the gender of people who were not white men — a finding that drew more attention to bias in AI...


Tulio de Oliveira:

On 25 November, Tulio de Oliveira announced the discovery of a new variant of SARS-CoV-2. Omicron, detected in samples from Botswana, South Africa and Hong Kong, had a Swiss Army knife of mutations that de Oliveira and other leading scientists feared might help it to evade immunity from previous infection or vaccinations.

For de Oliveira, director of South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), it was eerily reminiscent of the previous year, when his team had discovered another SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern in South African samples. Beta, as that variant became known, led foreign governments to curb travel to and from South Africa many months after its discovery. Both variants were spotted after doctors and laboratory workers flagged unexpected rises in infections in areas that had already been hit hard by COVID-19.

De Oliveira knew that by reporting yet another concerning variant, he ran the risk of incurring fresh sanctions, which would economically penalize countries in southern Africa. But he also knew it was the right thing to do. “The way that one stops a pandemic is by quick action,” says the Brazilian-born bioinformatician. “Wait and see has not been a good option...”

...The COVID-19 pandemic isn’t the first time that genomic sequencing has been used to trace outbreaks in Africa; scientists used it in the Ebola outbreak in West Africa from 2014 to 2016. KRISP, created in 2017 with de Oliveira at the helm, has tracked pathogens behind diseases including dengue and Zika, and more common scourges such as AIDS and tuberculosis. But never before have so many different samples of the same virus been sequenced in such a short period of time — both in Africa and around the world...

...The centre will work to control epidemics in Africa and the global south, and will house Africa’s largest sequencing facility. The coronavirus pandemic has fuelled these investments, but the momentum is already spilling over into surveillance on other diseases, says de Oliveira. “The main thing we have shown the world is that these things can be done in developing countries.”

Not that those countries have been rewarded for it — quite the opposite. De Oliveira says he was extremely disappointed when rich countries imposed travel bans on southern Africa simply because the country had the scientific skill to discover new variants. The scapegoating of South Africa “was almost a smokescreen for the vaccine hoarding, and for rich countries losing control of the pandemic”, says de Oliveira. “Of course I expected more...”


I added the bold here.

I especially applaud de Oliveira for the admittedly difficult decision he made to put humanity above economic interests of his already economically challenged country.

We could use his example more broadly, specifically with respect to climate change. Humanity should include future generations, but in most "economics first" calculations future generations are routinely not included.

I cannot here avoid referring to my personal bête noire, morally withered people announcing in extreme ignorance - ignorance apparently not found in Uganda, by the way - that nuclear power plants are "too expensive." These assholes run around saying that it is desirable to trash wilderness with unreliable wind farms that become landfill in 20 years, rather than nuclear plants, which are now designed to last 60 to 80 years and thus, represent gifts to future generations. It will not do to leave future generations with abandoned wind parks and an atmosphere destroyed by the accumulation of the dangerous fossil fuel waste carbon dioxide.

When presented with this insipid "too expensive" remark I am inspired to ask, "Too expensive for whom?"

Here's hoping you've completed your, um, Christmas shopping, and, um, will have a nice weekend.
December 17, 2021

In Poland, 78% of people support nuclear energy to address climate change.

Poland is heavily dependent on coal fueled powerplants, using Silesian coal. The power it exports to Germany when the wind isn't blowing is coal generated.

The Poles, however, are looking to get serious about climate change:

Polish support for nuclear on a high

Support for nuclear energy in Poland is overwhelming with 78% of people supporting the technology as a response to climate change, according to opinion polling. It comes as the country experiences a series of developments towards nuclear deployment.

"These are the best results in the history of research carried out since 2012," said Poland's Ministry of Climate and Environment, which commissioned the annual poll. The market research company DANAE used the CATI method to find the views of a representative group of 2148 people aged 15 to 75 years of age during November.

Results indicated that 74% of people support nuclear power plants in Poland, with 20% opposed. This was an increase in support of 11%, the government noted.

A similar increase was found among people who would be supportive of a nuclear power plant in their area. Some 58% said they would support this, up from 46% last year, with 39% opposed...

...A large majority of 82% said that building nuclear power plants would be a good way to increase Poland's energy security, which the government noted was up 9% from last year...

...In September it was announced that six new large reactors could be built by 2040 as part of Poland's plan to reduce its historic heavy reliance on coal, which is incompatible with climate commitments. EDF of France submitted an offer to supply six large EPR reactors in October, and Westinghouse has stepped up its engineering centres in Poland.

Separately Polish heavy industry is embracing small reactors as a way to avoid burning coal for process heat and power. Chemical producer Synthos has established a subsidiary which has right to develop projects around GE-Hitachi's BWRX-300, and is working with chemical producers PKN Orlen and Ciech on the potential for the BWRX to replace coal at their plants. Synthos is also working with power company ZE Pak to examine whether BWRX-300s could replace coal at the Pątnów power plant...


Apparently, the Poles consider that climate change is a more serious risk than, say, Chernobyl, which was relatively close to their borders. This should be a no brainer - in my opinion you'd have to be nearly insane to think otherwise - but in my experience, often it isn't a no brainer. The planet is literally on fire, a huge glacier is breaking up in Antarctica, and still people want to tell me all about Fukushima and Three Mile Island, as if I wouldn't think them insane, but I do.

It is far easier to engineer away another Chernobyl and Fukushima than it is to engineer away climate change.

I overwhelmingly agree with the overwhelming number of surveyed Poles, climate change is the worst energy disaster in history, by orders of magnitude from the next worst risk, the mining and handling of dangerous fossil fuels themselves.

December 16, 2021

The Netherlands' new coalition government places nuclear power at the heart of its climate policy.

Nuclear makes a comeback in the Netherlands

The Netherlands' new coalition government has placed nuclear power at the heart of its climate and energy policy. Some EUR500 million (USD564 million) has been earmarked to support new nuclear build in the period to 2025.

"We want to make every effort to keep our country and our planet liveable and habitable," wrote the VVD, D66, CDA and ChristenUnie parties. Today they released the coalition's plans for the period to 2025 as the result of negotiations that began after the general election in March.

"Nuclear energy can complement solar, wind and geothermal energy in the energy mix and can be used to produce hydrogen," the document said. "It also makes us less dependent on gas imports."

"That is why the nuclear power plant in Borssele will remain open longer, with due regard for safety," said the government. The 482 MWe single-unit plant has operated since 1973 and meets around 3% of the country's electricity needs...


...Accordingly, the government said it would provide financial support to the goal of building new nuclear power plants. It outlined EUR50 million (USD56 million) for this in 2023, EUR200 million in 2024 and EUR250 million in 2025.

It anticipated that cumulative support for new nuclear would reach EUR5 billion by 2030, while not assuming the power plants would be online by that time.


I personally don't agree with the claim that "Nuclear Energy can complement solar, wind and geothermal energy..."

Nuclear power makes so called "renewable energy" superfluous and unnecessary. (It already is unsustainable, despite much denial to the contrary.) Nevertheless, because of public ignorance and a dollop of popular faith only remotely connected with reality, all public authorities are required to genuflect in the direction of solar and wind, although endless cheering for them have not done anything at all to address climate change.

The Dutch, however, need to be a little more serious than the rest of us. Their country is already largely below sea level and the sea level is rising.
December 15, 2021

The International Atomic Energy Agency Has Reviewed Uganda's Nuclear Infrastructure.

IAEA completes Ugandan nuclear infrastructure review

Uganda's government is strongly committed to developing the infrastructure needed for a safe, secure and peaceful nuclear power programme, an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) team of experts has found. The eight-day Integrated Nuclear Infrastructure Review (INIR) mission was conducted at the government's request.

The INIR mission reviewed the status of nuclear infrastructure development using the Phase 1 criteria of the IAEA's Milestones Approach, a comprehensive method to assist countries that are considering or planning their first nuclear power plant which splits the activities necessary to establish the infrastructure for a nuclear power programme into three progressive phases of development. The end of Phase 1 marks the readiness of a country to make a knowledgeable commitment to a nuclear power programme.

Prior to the mission, Uganda prepared and submitted a self-evaluation report and supporting documents covering all infrastructure issues to the IAEA.

To diversify its energy mix, which is now mainly based on hydroelectricity, Uganda has taken steps towards the introduction of nuclear power. It drafted an energy policy that includes nuclear power and established a Nuclear Energy Programme Implementing Organisation (NEPIO). A NEPIO coordinates efforts among organisations and individuals who have roles to play in the process. Uganda's NEPIO has completed several studies on different infrastructure issues and drafted a Nuclear Power Roadmap for Uganda that makes recommendations for key decisions on the development of the infrastructure for nuclear power in the short, medium and long term.

The INIR team of IAEA staff and experts from Algeria, Morocco, Turkey and the USA was hosted by Uganda's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development.

The team made recommendations and suggestions aimed at assisting Uganda in making further progress in the development of its nuclear infrastructure and its readiness to construct the first nuclear power plant in the country...
December 15, 2021

My son let me read some of his "personal statements" on grad school applications requiring them.

I told him, "Listen kid, if you live your life as you have written in these statements, you will be a great man, whether anyone knows it or not."

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