NNadir
NNadir's JournalThe "Mauna Loa" CO2 observatory about to become the Maunakea observatory.
University of Hawaii, NOAA to gather climate change data following Mauna Loa eruptionMeasurements at the NOAA observatory stopped following the recent eruption of Mauna Loa’s volcano when lava flow crossed the road leading to the site, blocking staff access and taking out power lines to the facility.
Under an emergency agreement, NOAA and UH have established a temporary measurement site at Maunakeaoffsite link, a dormant volcano located approximately 21 miles north of Mauna Loa, for the critical CO2 record and other atmospheric measurements taken at MLO. The existing science infrastructure at Maunakea allowed for this quick installation to occur with little change to the existing campus.
“The data gathered over many decades in Hawaii are essential to our understanding of climate change,” said Steve Thur, Ph.D., NOAA assistant administrator for Oceanic and Atmospheric Research. “We are always grateful for the strong partnership with the University of Hawaii, but especially now when we need a way to ensure continuity in the measurement of CO2. Being able to pull atmospheric samples from Maunakea while Mauna Loa is down ensures that any disruption to this important long-term research will be minimal.”
It will have to do.
On Material Considerations, Toyota's Chief Questions the "Electrify Everything" Dream.
The article is here, in the Wall Street Journal. The article is behind a paywall; but I have access through a library I use; I'm not about to send the fascist Rupert a dime.
It's here:
Toyota Chief Says ‘Silent Majority’ Has Doubts About Pursuing Only EVs
The dirty little secret behind batteries is that with current technology - and probably technology that will remain the only option for some time - is that materials considerations make them unsustainable.
I noted this recently when I discussed what it would take in terms of batteries just to run the grid in that anti-nuke coal dependent hellhole Germany: The Number of Tesla Powerwalls Required That Would Address the Current German Dunkleflaute Event.
It is claimed they have a useable capacity of 13.5 kWh after being charged with 14 kWh of electricity, presumably at 25°C, with a putative thermodynamic efficiency - should you choose to believe it - of 96%. The maximum continuous power output is said to be 5 kW. The power requirements to match the combined coal and gas average continuous power of combined German coal and gas over the last 30 days, 44.4 GW would require 8,880,000 million Powerwalls®, to cover each day of Dunkelflaute; for 30 days, given that the wind wasn't blowing that much over that period, 266,400,000 Powerwalls®.
The specifications say that each Powerwall® weighs 114 kg, meaning that 30,369,600,000 kg of Powerwalls® would be required just for Germany.
According to Forbes, 15% of the weight of a Tesla Powerwall is cobalt, mined by Elon's happy Congolese slaves, meaning that the happy Congolese cobalt slaves would be required to mine and isolate 4,555,400 metric tons of cobalt to make Powerwalls® to cover this instance of Dunkleflaute with batteries.
This is 31.63 times as large as the world production of cobalt in 2021 according to the US Geological Survey
I'm sorry!!! I forgot to use "percent talk!" The demand for cobalt to cover month long Dunkleflaute in Germany observed in Nov-Dec 2022 would be 3163% the demand for all the world cobalt supply in 2021...
Batteries are clearly not "green."
People also seem to believe that electricity is "green," and agree with Toyota's CEO that hydrogen is "green." (Neither statement is even remotely true; electricity and hydrogen both depend, increasingly, on the combustion of dangerous fossil fuels.)
An excerpt from the article:
Auto makers are making big bets on fully electric vehicles, investments that have been bolstered by robust demand for the limited numbers of models that are now available.
Still, challenges are mounting—particularly in securing parts and raw materials for batteries—and concerns have emerged in some pockets of the car business about the speed to which buyers will make the shift, especially as EV prices have soared this year...
...While major rivals, including General Motors Co. and Honda Motor Co., have set dates for when their lineups will be all-EV, Toyota has stuck to a strategy of investing in a diverse lineup of vehicles that includes hydrogen-powered cars and hybrids, which combine batteries with gas engines.
The world’s biggest auto maker has said it sees hybrids, a technology it invented with the debut of the Toyota Prius in the 1990s, as an important option when EVs remain expensive and charging infrastructure is still being built out in many parts of the world. It is also developing zero-emission vehicles powered by hydrogen.
“Because the right answer is still unclear, we shouldn’t limit ourselves to just one option,” Mr. Toyoda said. Over the past few years, Mr. Toyoda said, he has tried to convey this point to industry stakeholders, including government officials—an effort he described as tiring at times...
...According to J.D. Power, the market share for EVs in the U.S. has risen sharply in the last couple of years. As of October, it was around 6.5% of the total new-car market, the firm said.
But that is largely because EV sales are growing faster in places such as California, where there are more options and a greater willingness among buyers to make the shift, J.D. Power analysts say. Sticker prices for electric vehicles have also jumped this year because of the rising cost of battery materials, limiting the pool of buyers who can afford one.
In a world powered largely by dangerous fossil fuels, the only type of vehicle that makes sense in a purely thermodynamic setting to my mind is a hybrid car, since it captures exergy that is otherwise waste. Possibly a plug in hybrid might be acceptable, depending on where one lives and how one's grid is powered. Both hybrids and plug-in hybrids still rely on dirty and morally questionable batteries, but they are less onerous purely electric cars or purely fossil fueled cars.
There is no such thing however as a sustainable car. I own a car, but I do not think history will forgive me, or my generation for our uncritical worship of the car CULTure.
Brains over beauty? "Miss America 2023" is a nuclear engineering student.
I know, I know, I know...
The "Miss America" pageant is an artifact of a demeaning view of women as objects, but well, at least in this case, the winning woman features brains beyond the swimsuit competition. (Does anybody still watch or care about this stuff?)
It came in on my ANS newsfeed.
Miss Wisconsin Grace Stanke, a nuclear engineering student, crowned Miss America 2023
Wausau native Grace Stanke, a 20-year-old nuclear engineering student at UW-Madison, was crowned the winner of the Miss America competition on Thursday at the Mohegan Sun casino in Uncasville, Conn., becoming the pageant's 95th winner. She is the third woman from Wisconsin to win the title.
Stanke shared her passion for nuclear engineering and performed “Storm,” a selection from the Summer movement of Vivaldi’s “Four Seasons,” on violin during the competition.
A graduate of Wausau West High School, Stanke is the daughter of Darrin and Jenny Stanke.
She previously served as Miss Madison for two years at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic and went on to place in the top 10 at Miss Wisconsin before returning to the stage and becoming Miss Wisconsin this year.
The operative point here is that she's 23 years old, and she's an engineering student entering into a career that her surely great generation will apply to save the world.
The Number of Tesla Powerwalls Required That Would Address the Current German Dunkleflaute Event.
As of today, with the wind kicking up there, German carbon intensity has fallen below 600 g CO2/kWh for the first time since November 27, when it was 591 g CO2/kWh. As of this writing 22h:33m, 12/18/22 Berlin Time, the carbon intensity is 520 g CO2/kWh.
The term "Dunkleflaute" is a new German word for extended periods of low wind and limited sunshine, conditions which have existed, as I noted in an earlier post, about a week ago, almost since early November.
The Last 30 Days of German Electricity Production, Carbon Intensity and "Percent Talk" Sources.
For the calculations in this post, I will rely on the 30 day results found on the Electricity Map for Germany for the period from November 15, 2022 to December 14, 2022, during which the average continuous carbon dioxide intensity for Germany was 693 g CO2/kWh.
By contrast, over the same period, the carbon intensity of France, even though its once magnificent nuclear infrastructure is damaged by a dubious decision to defer maintenance and upgrades in order to fund the useless "solar and wind will save us" fantasy, still had a was 137 g CO2/kWh, roughly, in "percent talk" 19.8% that of Germany, or put it another way, German electricity is 505% dirtier than that of France.
Here is a graphic representation of the carbon intensity and sources of primary energy, focusing on the use of filthy and deadly coal, for German electricity generation in the period between November 15, 2022 and December 14, 2022
I will not rely as produce graphics for each energy source as I did in the previously referenced post, but for calculation figures, will rely on the the 30 day period these graphics represent.
It shows that the average continuous power output of German coal plants amounted to 27.8 GW. There are 24 hours in a day so for 30 days, the energy production from coal plants in Germany amounted to 24*30*27.8 = 20,016 GWh. The dangerous fossil fuel natural gas was the second largest producer in that antinuke heaven, Germany, producing 16.6 GW of average continuous power, by a similar calculation to that of coal, producing 11,952 GWh of electricity.
We have people here who still worship the fascist Elon Musk and his slave holding company Tesla, who are always carrying on happily about the industrial installation of Tesla Powerwalls®.
Here are the specifications of Tesla Powerwalls®: Specifications of Powerwalls®.
It is claimed they have a useable capacity of 13.5 kWh after being charged with 14 kWh of electricity, presumably at 25°C, with a putative thermodynamic efficiency - should you choose to believe it - of 96%. The maximum continuous power output is said to be 5 kW. The power requirements to match the combined coal and gas average continuous power of combined German coal and gas over the last 30 days, 44.4 GW would require 8,880,000 million Powerwalls®, to cover each day of Dunkelflaute; for 30 days, given that the wind wasn't blowing that much over that period, 266,400,000 Powerwalls®.
The specifications say that each Powerwall® weighs 114 kg, meaning that 30,369,600,000 kg of Powerwalls® would be required just for Germany.
According to Forbes, 15% of the weight of a Tesla Powerwall is cobalt, mined by Elon's happy Congolese slaves, meaning that the happy Congolese cobalt slaves would be required to mine and isolate 4,555,400 metric tons of cobalt to make Powerwalls® to cover this instance of Dunkleflaute with batteries.
This is 31.63 times as large as the world production of cobalt in 2021 according to the US Geological Survey
I'm sorry!!! I forgot to use "percent talk!" The demand for cobalt to cover month long Dunkleflaute in Germany observed in Nov-Dec 2022 would be 3163% the demand for all the world cobalt supply in 2021.
The calculations are strictly "back of the envelope" but doing calculations of this type can, in my opinion, eliminate the risk of mouthing insane wishful thinking rhetoric.
I trust your preparations for the upcoming holidays are going well.
I case you ever need it: The Online Encyclopedia of Integer Sequences.
It's here: The Online Encyclopedia of Integer Sequences.
Here's what they say about themselves (while asking for donations):
The Wikipedia Page about it: On-Line Encyclopedia of Integer Sequences.
In case you're wondering, I came across it while looking up the nuclear shell "magic numbers" for a talk I'm giving next week.
The Dutch Announce Plans to Build Two New Nuclear Reactors at Borsselle and extend the life...
...of the one now operating there.
Borssele earmarked for two new reactors
Excerpts:
In December 2021, the Netherlands' new coalition government placed nuclear power at the heart of its climate and energy policy. Some EUR500 million (USD529 million) was earmarked to support new nuclear build in the period to 2025. It anticipated that cumulative support for new nuclear would reach EUR5 billion by 2030, while not assuming any new power plants would be online by that time.
The cabinet announced on 9 December that it currently sees Borssele as the most suitable location for the construction of two new reactors.
"There is sufficient space here for the construction of new reactors and a great deal of relevant knowledge and (nuclear) infrastructure, such as the storage of nuclear waste," it noted. "Building two reactors at one location is also more cost efficient. The government sees local support as an important condition in the choice of location and is therefore developing a participation plan to involve residents, organisations and businesses."
The government said preparations are aimed at the construction of two Generation III+ reactors. "This is the most modern type of reactor with improvements in safety, operating time, fuel technology and efficiency," it said. "The first Generation III+ reactors have now been commissioned in other countries. As a result, there is extensive international practical experience with the planning and financing of this technology. This makes the use of Generation III+ reactors the fastest route to a contribution from nuclear energy to a stable, CO2-neutral and diverse energy system."
Based on preliminary plans, these will be completed around 2035 and each will have a capacity of 1000-1650 MWe. The two reactors would provide 9-13% of the Netherlands' electricity production in 2035...
..."Nuclear energy can make an important contribution to a reliable and CO2-free energy supply. Local support and preconditions for the arrival of new nuclear power plants are crucial in the choices we make," said Energy Minister Rob Jetten. "I therefore think it is important to continue to involve the environment of the possible locations in all future steps."
EPZ - operator of the Borssele plant - said it is "pleased with the energetic steps the cabinet is taking to enable the construction of two new nuclear power stations in Borssele"...
Aside from the air pollution deaths associated with the German decision to shut its nuclear plants to burn coal, the Germans will not face the same level of disaster as the Dutch from the German decision to not give a rat's ass about climate change. The Netherlands are below sea level already in many places, and the rising seas may eliminate large tracts of the country.
The Dutch have one reactor at Borsselle, a small reactor, as well as the famous Petten reactor for the manufacture of medical radioisotopes, a high flux reactor, which has operated since 1961 and will be replaced in 2024.
The Last 30 Days of German Electricity Production, Carbon Intensity and "Percent Talk" Sources.
The graphics below come from the Electricity Map for Germany set at the 30 day average, from November 8, 2022 to December 8, 2022. They show that despite having a nominal capacity of 67.3 GW, spread over many thousands of square km, the wind industry in that "renewable energy" nirvana, actually produced an average continuous power of 4.66 GW of that thirty day period, for a capacity utilization of 6.92%.
The average continuous power of Germany's three remaining nuclear plants, occupying three relatively small buildings, which have the lowest carbon intensity of any form of energy in Germany, and which they plan to shut, was 3.65 GW, in "percent talk" 78.3% as much as all the wind turbines in Germany spread, again, over thousands upon thousands of square km.
For the 30 day period, the carbon intensity of the "renewable energy" nirvana of Germany was 698 g CO2/kWh.
This compares with France's 162 g CO2/kWh, even with France's once magnificent nuclear infrastructure suffering from years of neglect - so France could fund wind and solar junk with the receipts - and more or less on life support. (France's average continuous nuclear power output was 38.9 GW in this period.) Had its nuclear plants been properly maintained France would now be much closer to zero carbon intensity, but the French under Jospin, Hollande, and Macron (at least in his first term) drank the wind and solar Koolaid, at the expense of all humanity.
The graphics for the German electricity, for each form of form of electrical energy generated in that country, coal being the largest, follow.
First daily carbon intensity:
Coal:
Gas:
Wind:
Hydro:
Solar:
Nuclear:
Enjoy the work week.
Density Measurements of Uranium Containing Molten Chloride Salts Using Neutron Imaging.
The paper to which I'll briefly refer is this one: Density Measurements of Various Molten Sodium, Magnesium, Potassium, and Uranium Chloride Salt Compositions Using Neutron Imaging, Jisue Moon, Hunter Andrews, Can Agca, Jean-Christophe Bilheux, Alexander Braatz, Abbey McAlister, Joanna McFarlane, Jake McMurray, Kevin Robb, and Yuxuan Zhang Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research 2022 61 (48), 17665-17673.
The introduction to the paper:
The need for new nuclear capacity offers the opportunity to construct advanced nuclear reactors. One of these designs is the molten salt reactor (MSR), which offers benefits in terms of passive safety features, high thermodynamic efficiency, and greater fuel use. Various MSR classes are being pursued by vendors, including both solid- and liquid-fueled forms. (1) The liquid-fueled designs consist of an actinide-halide fuel form dissolved in an alkali-/alkaline-earth metal halide solvent salt that can act as a fuel carrier, heat transfer fluid, or blanket. (2,3) Molten salts are also being used for thermal energy storage, such as for concentrating solar power. (4,5)
Knowledge of thermophysical properties is important in the development of molten salt-based technologies for nuclear and nonnuclear systems. Relevant thermophysical properties include density, viscosity, heat capacity, thermal conductivity, optical properties, and wetting behavior. (6?10) The capability to measure thermophysical properties as a function of temperature and chemical composition within the envelope of operating conditions and to the desired accuracy is required.
Density is the property targeted in this work. Density is fundamental for understanding nuclear behavior and for engineering calculations, such as system sizing. Density affects various dimensionless parameters used for heat transfer and fluid flow calculations (e.g., Reynolds number). Density data as a function of temperature are used to evaluate the stability of thermoclines in storage tanks. In the past, densities of molten salt have been measured through Archimedes’ method by measuring the buoyancy of an object with known material, volume, and density in the salt. (8,9,11,12) The method has proven effective, but the formation of gas bubbles and surface interactions have the potential to affect the accuracy of the measurement. Additionally, the device needs to be constructed of nonreactive materials to avoid chemical reactions during the density measurement. Recently, applications of a liquid surface displacement probe (13) and bubbler systems (14,15) have been applied to give measurement uncertainties below 1%, but these experiments required ?2–6 and ?450 g of sample materials, respectively.
Neutron imaging is a powerful tool for nondestructive testing of materials. Neutron beams from research reactor and spallation neutron sources have recently been successfully applied in salt imaging. (16) The basic principle is similar to that of X-ray imaging. A beam of neutrons passes through the sample to a detector. (17) The neutrons interact with the nuclei of the atoms that compose the sample, and the absorption and scattering properties of the contained element are dependent on the elemental ratios in the mixture. In this study, we report on six different salt mixtures studied with the temperatures ranging from below melting, 673 K, up to 1073 K. The studied salts include coolant salt (KCl–NaCl) and various compositions of UCl3 mixed salt with KCl and NaCl (UCl3–KCl, UCl3–NaCl, and UCl3–KCl–NaCl). The effects of heating and cooling while density measurements were taken were investigated as well. Contact angles between the salt and the quartz containers were assessed from radiographs. Here, we aim to provide a clear methodology for performing density measurements of molten salts using neutron radiography such that further salt compositions, which are size limited based on the inclusion of limited resources (i.e., rare materials or radiation hazardous materials), can be evaluated appropriately, expanding the knowledge base needed for MSR deployment.
I disagree some of the statements in the first paragraph. First of all there is little "support" for zero emission energy in the world beyond lip service and chanting. The use of dangerous fossil fuels is rising, not falling. I also rather object to the admittedly now required religious genuflections in the direction of solar and wind even with the overly mild criticism of their reliability.
Nuclear energy does not need to be "paired" with solar and wind. Solar and wind have demonstrated their useless through the first two decades of this century at an expense of trillions of dollars. In these times in which solar and wind are subject to much uncritical worship, things are getting worse, not better. The rate of accumulation (the first derivative) of the dangerous fossil fuel waste carbon dioxide is increasing, as is the second derivative (the rate of change of the rate). Wind and solar are not reliable, nor are they sustainable owing to their absurdly high land and material requirements, as well as their inherent need for redundant systems, all of which are used at a thermodynamic, economic and, most importantly, environmental penalty that cannot be excused or justified.
For the record, I also think there are better options than chloride salts for nuclear applications, although chlorides, as opposed to fluorides, have less moderating value for neutrons. They are, however, as the authors point out, potentially useful heat transfer and short term heat storage tools.
Nevertheless the technique is rather exciting, neutron imagining. The neutrons in this case were provided by the high flux reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, an important research tool for humanity.
I can't go into too much detail with this paper, but here are some pictures and tables from the paper:
A table of the salts investigated:
Note the temperatures are given in Kelvin
Photographs of the apparatus:
The caption:
The caption:
The caption:
The caption:
A table of derived T, ? relationships in comparison to the theoretical (RK) relationships:
Correlation of experiment and theory:
The caption:
Comparison of data obtained by this technique, data from other techniques, and theory.
The caption:
The authors include that they may improve their technique by considering other materials for the containers.
It's an interesting technique, one of which I've been unaware.
Cool.
Have a nice day tomorrow.
Ongoing Outage of World's Foremost CO2 Monitoring Site is a "Serious Blow" to Climate Science.
I'm really pained by this; I log on to the Mauna Loa CO2 monitoring website very frequently, often daily.
Ongoing Outage of World’s Foremost CO2 Monitoring Site is a “Serious Blow” to Climate Science
Some excerpts:
The record, gathered for more than 60 years at the storied Mauna Loa Observatory, has played a critical role in our understanding of climate change by charting the inexorable rise of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. But now, lava flowing from the erupting volcano, has cut access and power to the site, halting this critical monitoring of climatic health.
"It's an incredibly detailed, informative record dating back to the 1950s," says Ralph Keeling, Director of the CO2 Program of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. "So if you want to know how the cycling of carbon and our earth system have changed between then and today, you need that record."
With the Mauna Loa Observatory, or MLO, out of action, possibly for many weeks, experts say significant impacts to our understanding of the climate system are possible. "It's a serious blow, that's for sure," says Keeling, who oversees one of two greenhouse gas monitoring programs at the observatory.
Given the stakes, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which runs the observatory, is working on ways to restore monitoring even before the lava stops flowing, according to Keeling. (As of Dec. 8, the supply of lava had slowed, but not stopped, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.) Another possibility NOAA is working on is to find a way to obtain atmospheric CO2 samples at a suitable alternative site until the MLO can be brought back online.
These efforts are only in their early stages. And there is already a growing gap in the CO2 record. Moreover, whatever interim solution may be devised, "it won’t be the full scope of what has been done at the station," Keeling says. "So there will be long term impacts..."
...The observatory's location in the middle of the Pacific at an elevation of 11,135 feet above sea leve l isolates it from local and regional CO2 sources — factories or highly urbanized areas, for example — and allows for sampling of air that is very well mixed. (Keeling notes that CO2 emissions from the Mauna Loa volcano itself pose no significant problem because they are relatively small, and sampling operations can be flexibly scheduled to avoid times when the wind is blowing in the wrong direction.)
All of this makes for a relatively unadulterated, overall picture of what's happening with CO2 in the temperate latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, Tans says...
...For scientists to see how this complex process plays out when anomalous climatic events like severe, widespread droughts occur, they need an accurate, continuous record of what's happening broadly in the atmosphere. With monitoring at Mauna Loa paused, it will be more challenging for scientists to discern how CO2 affects these events, and visa versa.
As Tans puts it, the gap in the Mauna Loa record "could increase the uncertainty of relationships that we can trace between CO2 and drought, precipitation, and other climate anomalies on a seasonal and annual scale..."
...In other words, MLO's sampling of CO2 represents a good average of what's happening across the temperate and boreal latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. And that's essential for scientists trying to get the final word on the give and take of CO2 between the atmosphere and plants and soils that are being hammered by climate impacts...
...Looking to the past can provide some ideas about how things might play out this time. The previous eruption, which occurred in 1984 and also paused MLO's operations, lasted about three weeks. But in that case, the access road was unaffected, according to Keeling. That made things less challenging.
The Mauna Loa eruption of 1855 began in a similar location and sent lava flows in roughly the same direction. That one lasted for six months.
The prospect of a similarly long pause in operations makes efforts to establish interim solutions all the more critical...
This is a real bummer, and couldn't be happening at a worse time.
Mid afternoon in Germany, Solar Energy Producing 5.07% capacity; Wind, 4.87% capacity. CO2...
...intensity is at 700 g CO2/kWh, 2nd highest in Europe. Germany's running on coal and gas, dominated by coal, because the wind isn't blowing.
(It's been running between 600 g CO2/kWh and 800 g CO2/kWh all week.)
Electricity Map, Germany (Accessed 12/10/2022, 14:53 (2:53 pm) Berlin Time, 9:04 AM EST (US))
Members of our antinuke community I'm sure are very, very, very, very, very proud of themselves, but I'm not sure how future generations will view them.
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