October 4, 2020

He probably is both sicker than they say, but has a much better chance at rapid recovery than most

Hi is probably sicker based on the information coming out on what they are treating him with, as well as his known risk factors: age and obesity.

Why? He is getting treatment not generally available. He got the Regeneron antibody treatment which confers the equivalent humoral immune response to someone who made very high affinity neutralizing antibodies after three weeks of infection. That by itself should help immensely, because newly replicated and secreted virus particles trying to infect new cells will be neutralized by the antibodies and removed. Many in the biomedical community believe that Regeneron's and Lilly's antibody treatments will be game changers (expensive game changers). They are still in trials, but about 1 million doses might be ready by the end of the year.

That said, once Covid activates the body's own immune defenses, it it likely that the body will continue to fight and actually damage itself in the process by killing infected cells and their neighbors. That is why they have to give dexamethasone-- which is an immune suppressant. That is why Trump is still at some risk.

October 4, 2020

If Trump recovers quickly it will be because he had elite access to Regeneron's experimental drug

not because he so "healthy" or has good genes, as he might try to claim later. Without this drug, he would be FAR worse off. There's a real question whether even his associates who got sick in his cohort (think Chris Christie) will have the same access, forget normal people.

This article came just a day before Trump's sickness was revealed:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/provocative-results-boost-hopes-antibody-treatment-covid-19

‘Provocative results’ boost hopes of antibody treatment for COVID-19
By Jon Cohen Sep. 30, 2020 , 5:15 PM
-snip-
"A second company has now produced strong hints that monoclonal antibodies, synthetically produced versions of proteins made by the immune system, can work as treatments in people who are infected with the pandemic coronavirus but are not yet seriously ill.
The biotech Regeneron Pharmaceuticals has developed a cocktail of two monoclonal antibodies that attach to the surface protein of that coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, and attempt to block it from infecting cells. Yesterday at an investor and media webcast, the firm revealed early results.

Infected people in a placebo-controlled trial that ultimately plans to enroll 2100 individuals who are asymptomatic or, at worst, moderately ill. The analysis divides patients into two groups: those who had detectable antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 at the trial’s start and those who did not, a so-called seronegative group. The monoclonal cocktail showed little effect on people who already had antibodies against the virus. But it appeared to help the seronegative patients, powerfully reducing the amount of virus found in nasopharyngeal swabs and alleviating symptoms more quickly. “These are provocative results,” says Myron Cohen of the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, who was not involved with the study but is helping Regeneron test its monoclonal cocktail as a preventive.

--snip--
Both Lilly and Regeneron say they are discussing their data with regulators to see whether their monoclonal antibodies might warrant moving to widespread use more quickly through mechanisms like the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s emergency use authorization process. Additional studies of their monoclonal treatments are underway in hospitalized COVID-19 patients and, separately, as preventives in uninfected people.

Monoclonal antibodies are more difficult to make than many drugs and often are extremely expensive, which means that supply could outstrip demand and many countries might not be able to afford them. The U.S. government’s Operation Warp Speed has invested $450 million in Regeneron to produce up to 300,000 “doses” of its cocktail by the end of the year, which would be distributed to Americans free of charge. “A substantial fraction of those are already available,” Yancopoulos said—although it’s not yet clear what constitutes a single dose of the company’s cocktail. Nonetheless, Regeneron, which is partnering with Roche to increase production capability, says it hopes to ramp up to produce 250,000 doses per month."

--MORE AT LINK--

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Trump may well recover quickly-- don't put it down to his great health, but to his special access to an experimental therapy that will eventually be game changers for Covid-19. In the article, it is mentioned that Eli Lilly has a similar drug and that 1,000,000 doses could be available by the end of the year.

October 1, 2020

Trump had traps set for Biden, but didn't have the discipline to spring them

https://news.yahoo.com/trumpworld-worried-amid-debate-performance-220600606.html
Trumpworld 'worried' amid debate performance fallout
NBC News
Shannon Pettypiece and Leigh Ann Caldwell and Carol E. Lee and Monica Alba and Hallie Jackson
,NBC News•September 30, 2020

-snip-

"But Trump failed to deliver many of his planned remarks — and when he did, they were often delivered out of context and with no explanation, two people familiar with debate preparations said.

When he attacked Biden for backing the 1994 crime bill, he was then supposed to point to Alice Johnson in the audience and demand that Biden apologize to Johnson, 65, a grandmother who spent more than two decades in prison on a nonviolent drug charge before Trump commuted her sentence and then pardoned her. Instead, Trump pivoted to his polling numbers among African American voters.

During the Supreme Court section of the debate, the president was supposed to go after Biden as "the godfather of turning Supreme Court confirmation hearings into sideshows," dating to Biden's work on the Senate confirmation hearings for Robert Bork in 1987 and Clarence Thomas in 1991, when he was chairman of the Judiciary Committee. Instead, Trump steered the conversation toward health care...."
-snip-
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The first one was a particularly egregious attempt to try to embarrass Joe -- since they remembered how Kamala Harris used the "little girl" phrase at the first Democratic Debate last year. But Trump was thrown off by his own aggressiveness and failed to spring the trap. (The actual story is more complex btw https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alice_Marie_Johnson -- I don't think Joe has anything to apologize for)

Expect more traps like this from Trump in the next debate-- that's the kind of trick Trump likes, but fortunately he is incompetent even at games like these.