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Quixote1818

Quixote1818's Journal
Quixote1818's Journal
February 26, 2020

Did tonight's debate change the trajectory?

My gut tells me that because Biden had a good debate in a state he is already leading in and really needs to do well in, it's possible this debate could lead to a stronger win in SC. If that happens then perhaps his campaign will have a second wind and he can possibly be the comeback kid? Everyone was going after Sanders tonight and I think he took some hits but he did a pretty good job deflecting the attacks and staying on message. However, I think he took a small amount of damage. If Sanders falters in SC coming in below 2nd place and Biden does really well, then tonight's debate could be a game changer. Not sure Sanders performance in the debate changed things that drastically though. If Sanders takes second in SC, he stays the front runner but Biden supporters will certainly have more hope then they had before this debate. If Sanders comes in 3rd then that would be a big blow and Biden and whomever takes second would have a big lift going into Super Tuesday.

I don't think any of the others had breakthroughs or took major hits.

February 24, 2020

Farm Bankruptcies Reach Great Recession Levels



NEWS
Farm bankruptcies reach Great Recession numbers
In 2019, there were 595 Chapter 12 family farm bankruptcies in the U.S.

Credit: Talk Business & Politics
Author: Talk Business & Politics
Published: 11:24 AM CST February 20, 2020
Updated: 11:24 AM CST February 20, 2020
International trade wars, low commodity prices, and erratic weather have plagued farmers throughout the country in recent years and the number of farmers going bankrupt is on the rise, according to an analysis done by American Farm Bureau.

In 2019, there were 595 Chapter 12 family farm bankruptcies in the U.S., the most since 637 were filed in 2011. It was almost 100 more than were filed in 2018. Filings tended to accelerate toward the end of the year with 147 being filed in the fourth quarter of 2019 alone, a 14% spike as compared to the same quarter the previous year, the analysis found.

Arkansas had 13 farms declare Chapter 12 and the state of Wisconsin, with a beleaguered number of dairy farmers, led the nation with 57. The number in Arkansas was unchanged from 2018. From 2010 to 2019, Arkansas had 134 bankruptcies in this category. During this same period, California had the most with 388 followed by Wisconsin (375), Georgia (351) and Florida (212).

More: https://www.5newsonline.com/article/news/farmers-bankruptcies/527-bb098fa3-b5e5-4da2-b2c6-e3654d2a9e8d
February 24, 2020

Report: Economic slowdown could hit Wisconsin in 2020

The very most recent polls have Trump slightly ahead in WI, however that poll was an outlier. Others that came out just a few weeks ago had the Dem candidates slightly ahead. Trump's approval rating in WI is at 43%. Since Trump took office, his net approval in Wisconsin has decreased by 16 percentage points. He beat Hillary by about 1/2 a percent. With the economy starting to falter I think Trump is going to have a hard time holding WI.




By Dave Fidlin | The Center Square

Wisconsin’s economy could be impacted by a potential recession in 2020, according to a study looking at how states across the country would weather broader economic forces in the year ahead.

Researchers with Bloomberg suggested Wisconsin could be one of seven across the U.S. entering a state of contraction.

In addition to Wisconsin, Bloomberg’s analysis suggests three other battleground states – Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania – that tilted in President Donald Trump’s favor in the 2016 race could be vulnerable to contraction during the upcoming pivotal election year.

The Bloomberg analysis was based on data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, but does not necessarily portray an ominous picture of next year’s economic climate in the respective states.

“The data don’t predict recessions in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio,” Bloomberg’s Alexandre Tanzi and Gregory Korte wrote in the article. “Rather, it shows the states may be entering a weak period in their business cycles.”

Fed indexes reveal Wisconsin’s economy contracted 0.05 percent at the end of the third quarter of this year. By contrast, the national economy continued to expand at the end of 2018 in the state to the tune of 0.73 percent.

More: https://www.thecentersquare.com/wisconsin/report-economic-slowdown-could-hit-wisconsin-in/article_f1f4cdba-04aa-11ea-bc4d-f7ec48142625.html

February 24, 2020

Time to worry? U.S. job openings dropped by 1 million, and that was before the coronavirus spread

By Mitchell Schnurman

5:00 AM on Feb 23, 2020

Some cracks are emerging in America’s long-running growth story — or at least some warning signs.

While job creation has continued at an impressive pace, the number of openings has fallen sharply, according to government data released recently. In December, job openings in the private sector fell by 1.1 million, a decline of over 16%. That’s the steepest downturn since 2009, when the country was still reeling from the Great Recession.

“Any economic comparisons to 2009 tend to be concerning,” said Daniel Zhao, senior economist and data scientist at Glassdoor, one of the world’s largest job sites. “This is a sign the labor market is slowing down.”

Many key indicators are still strong, including the latest jobs report. In January, the U.S. added 225,000 nonfarm jobs, far surpassing economists’ expectations. Zhao also noted that total job openings are high by historical standards, topping 5.7 million in December. And openings still exceed the number of unemployed people, a reflection of how tight the labor market remains for many employers.

The unemployment rate is near a 50-year low, too. But that’s a lagging indicator, turning up only after people start to lose jobs. In contrast, job openings are forward-looking, offering insight into where trends may be heading.

Employers can add openings or pull them quickly, based on what they’re seeing in real time, Zhao said.

“They can’t hire or fire nearly as fast,” he said.

December’s big drop wasn’t a one-off. Job openings began falling in mid-2019 and accelerated through the end of the year, hitting double-digit declines in November and December.

More: https://www.dallasnews.com/business/jobs/2020/02/23/time-to-worry-us-job-openings-dropped-by-1-million-and-that-was-before-the-coronavirus-spread/

February 24, 2020

Thoughts on our chances in the Senate in Maine and Kentucky?

Anyone want to weigh in?

February 24, 2020

Dr Berg Corona Virus clip

A bit outdated but he is right about the hype.


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