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Moody's Election Forecast Map Here

Moody's Analytics model predicts Biden will win 'close' election and Pennsylvania will be key

Not sure why they think PA and not Michigan will be key?

Moody’s Analytics model predicts Biden will win ‘close’ election and Pennsylvania will be key
Moody’s Analytics has released its last election model report, predicting a that Joe Biden will win re-election by a thin margin, supposing average turnout.

The second term could be secured on the strength of the economy but the firm warns “the upcoming presidential election will be close”.

However, as in 2020 the election will depend on key battlegrounds, with something of a cushion for the president if he carries all or most of them.

The report states:

Similar to 2020’s close and contentious race, the 2024 election will be determined in a few battleground states. On the state level, the outcome is likely to be even closer than in 2020 with five states decided by less than 1 percentage point compared with only three in the previous election. The narrowness of Biden’s margins in Georgia (+0.9 ppt), North Carolina (+0.3 ppt), Nevada (+0.2 ppt), Pennsylvania (+0.8 ppt), and Arizona (-0.8 ppt) suggests that the outcome may not be determined on election night as several states face the prospect of automatic recounts and court challenges—a situation likely to raise anxieties given the aftermath of the 2020 election.

Biden’s projected 308 electoral vote tally provides some cushion. If we start flipping the results of his slimmest victories, the loss of North Carolina and Nevada would trim his vote total to 286, still enough to achieve victory. Losing Georgia, which has 16 electoral votes, would then bring Biden to the exact threshold he needs to win a second term. Therefore, Pennsylvania appears to be the key to winning or losing the 2024 election. Losing the Keystone State’s 19 electoral votes would drop Biden to 267 votes, if he also loses North Carolinaand Nevada, and 251 votes, if he also loses Georgia, swinging the election to Trump. In other words, our model suggests that the upcoming presidential election will likely be determined in Pennsylvania.

Full report here: https://www.economy.com/getfile?q=95674FFE-7734-4401-877A-FE331AECD442&app=download

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