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Hometown: New Mexico
Member since: Mon Dec 1, 2003, 03:42 PM
Number of posts: 24,612

Journal Archives

Over 74,000 Covid cases today. I bet tomorrow we hit 80,000

as Fridays are always the peak day. Just a bit under 79,000 was the previous record back on July 24th.


Because a few state polls were off in 16, a lot of Trump fans are going to lose a lot of money

betting on Trump this year. Pollsters have adjusted what they missed in the rust belt so the margins would be even bigger now. Biden getting over 50% in several of the battleground state polls also means there is no room for undecideds to break for Trump which is what happened probably mostly because of Comey screwing Hillary in the last few days.

Man, not only are they going to be pissed when Trump loses, they are going to get their wallets emptied out hardcore! LOL

Interesting graphic


Could Georgia become the next New Mexico / Virginia? Reliably blue

I see Texas not far behind. New Mexico and Virginia used to be a swing states not that long ago but demographic changes have made them sold blue. Seems a lot of liberals are moving to Atlanta and other large cities in Georgia. Hopefully in 10 years it will be solid blue. I don't see anything important trending red either. Maybe Wisconsin or PA trending red?

Why Biden's October Poll Lead Is Different Than Hillary Clinton's Meet The Press NBC News

Ozzy Man Reviews: Racism, Police & Protests

'You're the president. You're not, like, someone's crazy uncle who can just retweet whatever' --

'You're the president. You're not, like, someone's crazy uncle who can just retweet whatever' — Savannah Guthrie lays into Trump for spreading QAnon conspiracy theories


Biden Leads Trump By 11 Points In New General Polling Morning Joe MSNBC

Winter will make the pandemic worse. Here's what you need to know.

by David H. Freedmanarchive page
October 8, 2020
Conceptual illustration

As we head into the Northern Hemisphere fall with covid-19 still raging in the US and a number of other parts of the world, two data points provide cause for extra concern.

One is that the seasonal flu—a respiratory viral infection like covid-19—is much more active in the winter. Last year in the US, there were 40 times as many flu cases in the fall and winter months as in the previous spring and summer. Historically, those cooler months see tens of times as many seasonal flu infections in temperate regions. (In tropical regions, the flu tends to peak during the rainy season, though not as strongly.)

The other is that the death toll from the 1918 influenza outbreak—the only pandemic to have killed more Americans than this one so far, and one of the deadliest in global history—was five times as high in the US during the late fall and winter as during the summer.

If the covid pandemic follows those patterns and blows up as we head into winter, the result could easily top 300,000 additional US deaths on top of the more than 200,000 so far, conservatively assuming (based on the 1918 outbreak) four times the rate of covid-19 deaths that we saw this summer.

How likely is that? “We just don’t have the evidence yet with this virus,” says Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. Osterholm notes that some of the key variables defy scientific analysis and prediction. It’s difficult to calculate whether government policy will shift, whether the public will comply with guidelines, when a vaccine may become available, or how effective and well accepted it will be if it does.

Nonetheless, scientists are pulling together a picture of how the pandemic is likely to play out this winter. They are drawing on lab studies and a rapidly growing body of epidemiological data. In particular, they now better understand how lower temperatures and humidity affect the virus, and how different indoor conditions affect its transmission.



Is Coronavirus Worse in the Winter?

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