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kristopher

kristopher's Journal
kristopher's Journal
May 25, 2013

The Unclear Fate of Nuclear Power

The Unclear Fate of Nuclear Power
Two years after the accident at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi, can the nuclear renaissance regain its momentum?

By Josie Garthwaite
Smithsonian.com, May 23, 2013


....Nuclear has sometimes been promoted as an important weapon in the fight against climate change, but "the level of deployment of nuclear power you would need over the next couple decades to make a dent in global warming emissions would be so enormous, it's just not feasible," ....


Read more: http://www.smithsonianmag.com/ideas-innovations/The-unclear-fate-of-nuclear-power-208386481.html#ixzz2UGsoh4OH
Follow us: @SmithsonianMag on Twitter
May 24, 2013

Google buying high altitude wind technology

Google Reels In Wind-Kite Firm Makani

James Montgomery, Associate Editor, RenewableEnergyWorld.com
May 23, 2013

Extending its already deep reach into renewable energy, Google reportedly has acquired a startup and its flying-kite wind turbines that promise to tap better wind energy resources at higher altitudes with far lower costs and more efficient output.

Google, no stranger to clean energy as both a purchaser and investor of large-scale wind and solar power, reportedly has acquired Makani Power and its flying kite-design wind turbine, after years of being a major investor in the firm. Makani would be paired up with the Google X research labs, whose early-stage offspring include driverless cars and Google Glass. BusinessWeek's Brad Stone says Google CEO Larry Page finally approved the deal which was proposed a year ago, with the stipulation that they must "crash at least five of the devices in the near future" — presumably amid efforts to prove and improve the technology's performance and reliability.

We've looked at Makani and similar high-flying wind technology innovations in the past, but here's the Makani pitch in a nutshell: its Airborne Wind Turbine (AWT) flies in a big circle within stronger winds at 800-2,000-foot altitudes, with rotors designed to act as both a turbine and as a propeller; direct-drive generators send electricity back down its tether to a ground station. The AWT could be reeled in and "perched" and then reeled out again during extended periods of low wind or bad weather, or for maintenance. It's especially well suited for deployment in areas less favorable to traditional tower-based designs, such as lower-wind-speed areas and offshore (especially deeper water).

Makani says the AWT delivers about twice the energy per unit of capacity than conventional turbines, producing power at half the cost, and using 90 percent less material. ...


http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2013/05/google-reels-in-wind-kite-firm-makani?cmpid=WNL-Friday-May24-2013
May 24, 2013

The Odds of Disaster: An Economist's Warning on Global Warming

The Odds of Disaster: An Economist's Warning on Global Warming

By Martin Weitzman


No one can say with any assurance what the dollar value of damages would be from the highly uncertain climate changes that might accompany a planet earth that is steadily warming.

Paul Solman: Are headlines trumpeting the fact that carbon dioxide levels in the earth's atmosphere have now passed 400 parts per million for the first time in something like three million years unduly alarmist? Or are they a timely warning?

<snip>

Weitzman's central idea is not unlike the legendary bet proposed by the 16th century Catholic French philosopher Blaise Pascal. One way to interpret Pascal's argument: even if you think the likelihood of God's existence is vanishingly small, the cost if you're wrong -- eternal damnation -- is infinitely high. An infinite cost times even a tiny probability is still ... an infinite cost.

So you make a finite investment by believing in God and acting accordingly in order to avoid an infinite cost. To put it another way, you're obliged, mathematically, to make the investment in belief.

You might keep Pascal's argument in mind while reading Weitzman. Or think of the "Black Swan" argument of Nassim Taleb: certain events, however unlikely you think they may be, could have such enormous consequences, you just can't take the chance of letting them happen.

--------------

Martin Weitzman: Recently the ....


http://www.pbs.org/newshour/businessdesk/2013/05/the-odds-of-disaster-an-econom-1.html
May 23, 2013

Not just another report on energy

REN21 Renewables Global Futures Report (GFR)


The REN21 Renewables Global Futures Report (GFR) is a pioneering publication that provides access to the range of credible possibilities on the future of renewable energy. The report is based on interviews with over 170 leading experts around the world and the projections of 50 recently published scenarios. The report can serve as a tool for dialogue and discussion on future options, and compliments well the REN21 Renewables Global Status Report.

Released in January 2013, the report was authored by Dr. Eric Martinot and was the product of a unique collaboration between REN21 and the Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies (ISEP) during 2011-2012.


http://www.ren21.net/REN21Activities/GlobalFuturesReport.aspx

Now, here is what sets it apart. They have unintentionally accomplished a report card, of sorts, for the agencies and organizations that crafted the scenarios they used.

Detractors of Renewable Energy and Future Outlooks
Renewable energy has historically had many detractors. “Renewable energy is too expensive,” many have said over the years. “Increasing amounts of public subsidies will be required for a long time,” many have also said, or its variation, “renewable energy is only developing because there is policy support.” And many have considered renewable energy technologies relatively immature and requiring further research.

Such views persist today in the energy industry. For example, ExxonMobil, in its 2012 Outlook for Energy to 2040, said, “advances in technology will be necessary to make [renewable] fuels more practical and economic ... geothermal and solar will remain relatively expensive.” ENI noted, “the technologies pres- ently available only allow for limited production of energy at high prices.” And Chevron said, “because of major technical hurdles— such as scalability, performance, and costs—as well as market- based barriers, broader adoption [of renewables] can’t happen overnight.”

Renewables advocates reply that conventional cost comparisons are unfair for a host of reasons, including existing public sub- sidies for fossil fuels and nuclear, the failure to properly incor- porate future fuel-price risks in comparisons, and the failure to adequately count environmental costs. (See “Great Debate 1” on next page.) They also say that some renewable technologies are already fully competitive, and that for others, policy support will not be necessary in the long run, as rapid evolution in markets, technologies, and costs, driven by past policies, are making more renewable technologies fully competitive more quickly. Most scenario projections of renewable energy show lower renewables costs in the coming decade and beyond. (Some do not, however. ExxonMobil (2012) forecasts that the price of electricity gener- ated from renewables will be higher than the price of conven- tional electricity even in 2030, with the exception of onshore wind power.) (See Chapter 6.)

<snip>

The range of contemporary thinking by experts, industry players, published scenarios, and many energy companies themselves, as portrayed throughout this report, is mostly at odds with the above thinking of detractors. Although it was not the purpose of this report to directly refute such viewpoints, one cannot help but see, after reading the entire report, that such viewpoints face diminishing validity in the future.
Box 1, pg 11 REN21 2013

http://www.ren21.net/Portals/0/REN21_GFR_2013_print.pdf
May 23, 2013

Countdown to Nuclear Ruin at Paducah

Countdown to Nuclear Ruin at Paducah May 22, 2013
By Geoffrey Sea

Disaster is about to strike in western Kentucky, a full-blown nuclear catastrophe involving hundreds of tons of enriched uranium tainted with plutonium, technetium, arsenic, beryllium and a toxic chemical brew. But this nuke calamity will be no fluke. It’s been foreseen, planned, even programmed, the result of an atomic extortion game played out between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the most failed American experiment in privatization, the company that has run the Paducah plant into the poisoned ground, USEC Inc.

As now scheduled, main power to the gargantuan gaseous diffusion uranium plant at Paducah, Kentucky, will be cut at midnight on May 31, just nine days from now—cut because USEC has terminated its power contract with TVA as of that time [“USEC Ceases Buying Power,” Paducah Sun, April 19, page 1] and because DOE can’t pick up the bill.

DOE is five months away from the start of 2014 spending authority, needed to fund clean power-down at Paducah. Meanwhile, USEC’s total market capitalization has declined to about $45 million, not enough to meet minimum listing requirements for the New York Stock Exchange, pay off the company’s staggering debts or retain its operating licenses under financial capacity requirements of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

The Paducah plant cannot legally stay open, and it can’t safely be shut down—a lovely metaphor for the end of the Atomic Age and a perfect nightmare for the people of Kentucky....

More at: http://ecowatch.com/2013/countdown-to-nuclear-ruin-at-paducah/

May 23, 2013

Corruption in Polish Utility's Nuclear Unit

PGE's nuclear unit in corruption scandal
The company's president might have been involved


22nd May 2013

The Central Anti-Corruption Bureau (CBA) says it suspects large-scale corruption in PGE EJ 1, the subsidiary of Poland's largest utility PGE, responsible for its nuclear energy program. CBA has reported the case to the prosecutor's office.

CBA suspects irregularities in two agreements worth a total of zł.11 million. The investigation was carried out in connection with PGE EJ 1's activities in 2010-2011. Alleged corruption activities are linked to people then holding the posts of CEO and deputy CEO.

CBA said the alleged crimes involve, “mismanagement to a considerable extent” by the CEO and deputy CEOs at the time. The company has refused to comment on the matter, since it says it does not know the contents of the notice sent to prosecutors...


http://www.wbj.pl/article-62805-pges-nuclear-unit-in-corruption-scandal.html
May 23, 2013

That's good to know

There is no shortage of lunatic interpretations of bibilcal writings. Go to nearly any evangelical church and start interviewing someone at random and you'll find ideas that deserve the label 'wild eyed and crazy'. What binds them however, is that their faith is based on a Core Belief that the bible is the true and literal word of god. This creates the mental conditions for what amounts to a form of psychosis where reality inevitably has to be rejected if the Core Belief is to be maintained. The more this belief is challenged with reality based evidence, the further from reality the Believer is required to remove him/herself in order to maintain the structure that their world view is build upon.

That anti-science predilection is a condition that is tailor made for exploitation by economic interests that are threatened by science based knowledge. The range of nuttery is so broad that one need not look very far at all to find a fully developed mental architecture (in this case Armstrong's) that will carry a message for rallying public sentiment in the direction desired. In this case - Germany moving to renewables is evil.

May 22, 2013

Growth in China Wind Energy Production Exceeds Coal For First Time Ever

They are at least now headed in the right direction.

Growth in China Wind Energy Production Exceeds Coal For First Time Ever
By Li Shuo

Amid all the news about coal and pollution problems in China you might have missed this one: According to new statistics from the China Electricity Council, China’s wind power production actually increased more than coal power production for the first time ever in 2012.

Thermal power use, which is predominantly coal, grew by only about 0.3 percent in China during 2012, an addition of roughly 12 terawatt hours (TWh) more electricity. In contrast, wind power production expanded by about 26 TWh. This rapid expansion brings the total amount of wind power production in China to 100 TWh, surpassing China’s 98 TWh of nuclear power. The biggest increase, however, occurred in hydro power, where output grew by 196 TWh, bringing total hydro production to 864 TWh, due favorable conditions for hydro last year and increased hydro capacity. In addition, the growth of power consumption slowed down — in Chinese terms a modest increase of 5.5 percent — influenced by slower economic growth, and possibly the energy use targets for provinces set by the Chinese central government.

Coal still accounts for 79 percent of electricity production in China, but fortunately that dominance is increasingly challenged by competition from cleaner energy, as well as government policies and public concerns about air pollution. The Chinese government’s 12th five year energy plan (2011-2015) aims for coal to be reduced from 70 percent to 65 percent of energy production by 2015. In contrast, the Chinese government has ambitious targets for wind, solar, and hydro, and plans to increase the share of non-fossil fuels to 30 percent of installed electricity generating capacity by the end of 2015.

Expansion of the coal industry does not have many friends in China anymore. Major increases of coal power in recent years have created not only record climate emissions, but an unprecedented problem of air pollution and water overuse, triggering increased concern among the Chinese urban population and the central government. The record air pollution in January this year has changed the discussion about coal, and now prominent policymakers and opinion leaders, even vice-ministers, call for capping coal use, especially in the eastern populated and industrial areas of China. The air quality targets the government set for 2016 will require cutting coal pollution. Already last year the government set new strict standards for coal power emissions, requiring costly investments in filters. This year the government set new water use targets for provinces, which do not give much room for increased use of water for coal use in key provinces. Now the discussion is around controlling the total consumption of coal, in addition to emissions trading and resource taxes. The coal industry is surrounded by challenges.

There is another, very sobering side to the story, though: ...


http://theenergycollective.com/josephromm/201401/china-wind-energy-more-than-coal-first-time-ever-2012

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