Not everyone likes polls, but a well designed poll can be highly informative. Michigan last week on the Dem side did not have good polling numbers, for a bunch of reasons. After standing back, digging in, and discussing this, it was clear that Michigan was NOT an anomaly but a warning about poorly constructed polls.

With about 1/3 of the states' primaries in our rear view mirror and lots of polling data, the pollsters are starting to figure it out. Specifically, CBS/YouGov seems to be nailing it: they have Sanders leading Clinton by 2% in Illinois, a state that fits the Michigan model: an open primary with similar demographics.

I'm going by the assumption that CBS/YouGov has good numbers. So, let's take a look at their poll numbers:

Illinois: Clinton 46%, Sanders 48%

Florida: Clinton 62%, Sanders 34%

Ohio: Clinton 52%, Sanders 43%
(I cannot find any other YouGov polls for this Tuesday)

Resulting delegate split: Clinton 279, Sanders 234
(I'm giving Sanders ALL the undecideds, so this is best case scenario for Sanders with these poll numbers)

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Giving Missouri to Sanders by 10% and NC to Clinton by 10%, those delegates get split Clinton 91, Sanders 88

My projected total for Tuesday only: Clinton 370; Sanders 321

Running total (pledged only): Clinton 1,145; Sanders 871