…in the last 48 hours or so, we’ve gone from the U.S. being pretty clear it will not get involved beyond defensive assistance to Israel in blocking missiles and drones to the situation this morning, in which it seems like the U.S. may be very close to joining the Israeli bombing campaign. And this isn’t just a case of “the more, the merrier.” Only the U.S. has the combination of bunker-busting bombs and strategic bombers that make it plausible to destroy or disable all the key facilities that make up Iran’s nuclear program.

It is important to note that the U.S. has very good reason to make Iran think it may be about to do that. So it may be a ruse. We don’t know. But I think it’s very possible that the U.S. is on the verge of a major, major military campaign that it wasn’t considering at all just a few days ago and that we may be doing that more or less solely because Donald Trump is jazzed about and attracted by the idea of “winning.” And Israel is now “winning.” So he wants in.

It’s important to step back and recognize that there is really, literally no one in the inner discussion of U.S. foreign policy today who has any level of foreign policy or military crisis experience at all. That’s a big statement. But I think it bears out. The two heads of the U.S. intelligence apparatus have zero experience in intelligence work. The head of the Pentagon is Pete Hegseth and he appears to have surrounded himself with lackeys. Marco Rubio is both Secretary of State and National Security Advisor. He did focus to a degree on foreign policy in the Senate. But he’s never been involved in any national security crisis. He’s never worked in the executive branch. Even the people who are hardcore Trumpers but had some real level of foreign policy experience, like Keith Kellogg, now have other assignments. Kellogg is envoy to Ukraine. The current Chairman of the Joint Chiefs isn’t a career Army Officer. He spent a significant amount of his career in the Reserves. (I don’t think at least — but not certain on this point — that he ever served on the Joint Staff.) The point is that there’s really no one in the room, as it were, who is in a position to keep the President from just riffing. And I think there’s a decent chance that’s exactly what’s happening.

More at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/thoughts-on-israels-iran-campaign-and-donald-trump#more-1521443

California national guards troops and marines deployed to Los Angeles to help restore order after days of protest against the Trump administration have told friends and family members they are deeply unhappy about the assignment and worry their only meaningful role will be as pawns in a political battle they do not want to join.

Three different advocacy organisations representing military families said they had heard from dozens of affected service members who expressed discomfort about being drawn into a domestic policing operation outside their normal field of operations. The groups said they have heard no countervailing opinions.

“The sentiment across the board right now is that deploying military force against our own communities isn’t the kind of national security we signed up for,” said Sarah Streyder of the Secure Families Initiative, which represents the interests of military spouses, children and veterans.

…Active service members are prohibited by law from speaking publicly about their work. But Streyder, of the Secure Families Initiative, said she had heard dozens of complaints indirectly through their families. She had also seen a written comment passed along to her organization from a national guard member who described the assignment as “shitty” – particularly compared with early secondments to help with wildfire relief or, during the Covid pandemic, vaccination outreach. “Both of those experiences were uncomplicatedly positive, a contribution back to the community,” Streyder described the message as saying. “This is quite the opposite.”

According to Janessa Goldbeck, a Marine Corps veteran who runs the Vet Voice Foundation, the feeling was similar among some of the troops being sent from Twentynine Palms. “Among all that I spoke with, the feeling was that the marines are being used as political pawns, and it strains the perception that marines are apolitical,” Goldbeck said. “Some were concerned that the Marines were being set up for failure. The overall perception was that the situation was nowhere at the level where marines were necessary.”

More at: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/12/los-angeles-national-guard-troops-marines-morale?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Donald Trump announced Tuesday that he will begin “winding down” FEMA after this year’s Hurricane season and, perhaps the more significant statement, that he will begin distributing disaster aid directly from the President’s office. In other words, disaster assistance will be the President’s personal gift, an assist for friends and those who display loyalty. It’s part of the broader pattern we can see across the horizon: Trump takes the policing and military powers of the United States and the national tax revenues (drawn disproportionately from the blue states) and uses it to make war on states he considers enemies.

This has always been the centerpiece of Trumpism even more than authoritarianism, a kind of fiscal warlordism. Disaster relief dollars are a relatively minor expenditure. But we see it aimed at universities, the cut off of funds generally to California and the forced deployment of National Guard and Marines to Los Angeles. The blue states essentially fund the war against themselves.

It’s important to note that the fact that blue states disproportionately fund the federal government only aggravates the more general pattern, which is targeting states viewed as domestic enemies.

It’s not too much to say that this puts the whole national civil compact under immense and perhaps unsupportable stress. Blue states disproportionately fund the federal government. But what they get back or whether they get anything back is up to Donald Trump.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/funding-the-war-on-yourselves