louis c
louis c's JournalTo all the 18 to 35 YO, to women, to all the minorities I have a word for you
THANKS.
I'm a union guy. We worked hard here in Mass. for Warren and in NH for Obama. I don't get much trouble from people at work, after all I'm the union president (only 150 members, though) and they mostly agree with me on politics (or pretend they do).
However, everywhere else I go, outside of my union work, I have to argue all the time about politics. You see, I'm a 60 year old white guy and my contemporaries generally hate Barack Obama. I will never let a comment slide. There's no Kenya or birther or Muslim talk without me making a fool out of the individual, and I don't care if he's with his wife and kids. Anywhere, anytime, they'll hear the working class speech from me, with facts to back it up. I always felt outnumbered and besieged.
Well, because of the rest of the demographics that are not white, middle aged men, I get to gloat for at least 4 more years.
Here's my new line to my Friends who are in shock about the election (I had some of them predicting that Romney would win Mass., they just missed that prediction by 24 points). Well, anyway, here's the line. "Hey, Gary, do you know who the next Republican President is going to be?" Gary's response, "No, Louis, I don't know". My response, "I don't know either, because he hasn't been born yet."
I owe it all to you.
THANKS AGAIN.
louis c
Higher Education Proposal
Here's my idea, which I have given quite a lot of thought to. The Democratic Party owes the young people of America and the American Middle Class. It's always a good thing to do the right thing and the residual affect is that it's good politics, too.
Every High School Graduate who is less than 30 years old who successfully finishes two years of College (including community college) would qualify for a 50% rebate of their tuition for their Junior year to a state college or university if it has been successfully completed and an 80% rebate to a state college or university for their Senior year upon graduation and receiving a degree.
Who likes my idea?
Mitt Romney lost his home town by 31 points
For all those teary eyed stories at the Repuke convention of how he helped his neighbors, it didn't seem to help Mitt Romney much with the people who should really know. Mitt Romney lost his home town of Belmont Massachusetts by 31%, Obama 9,108 to Romney 4,728.
He lost his home state by 24%, the largest margin of any major party Presidential candidate in American history.
You can best be judged by those who know you best
Link:
http://www.belmont-ma.gov/Public_Documents/BelmontMA_Clerk/2012-11-6%20Election%20Summary.pdf
Mitt Romney Lost All 4 of His Home States, and His VP's Too
Mitt Romney has a house in Mass., Cal., NH and was born and brought up in Michigan. Ryan lives in Wisconsin and went to college in Ohio.
Nice going, boys. It's tough to fool people who know you. I know. I lived through his Governorship in Massachusetts.
Mass., Romney's current home state and the state he served as Governor. Minus 24 points.
Good night you no good piece of shit. I couldn't be happier at your loss.
My Interpretation of the Early Exit Poll Numbers
Some early exit polls are coming in but they can't say what the horse race is.
One group caught my eye. Fathers are voting 54% to 43% for Romney. Mothers are voting 54% to 44% for Obama. on the face of it, it seems like a wash in the gender gap. But hold on.
What about childless individuals? Single women, who tend to childless, are overwhelmingly for Obama. And men without children tend to be younger and single, another pro-Obama demographic.
Even if the childless people, who will make up about 20% of the remaining voters, breaks 60% to 40% for Obama, that's a national polling edge of about 4%. If Obama wins nationally by 4%, it will be an electoral vote landslide.
Still coming in are Virgina exit polls that show that 50% of the Virgina voters are either enthusiastic or satisfied with Obama. 47% are either dissatisfied or angry at Obama. That's Virginia and those are good numbers.
Very Few People Who Voted for McCain in '08 are Now Voting for Obama
but there are a lot of Obama people who switched to Romney.
That's the long winded narrative from the right wing repukes and Fox news annalists.
Maybe that's partially true. However, everyone knows that the demographic break down is that younger voters are overwhelmingly for President Obama, and older voters voted for McCain in '08 and are more likely to vote for Romney today.
So, 14 to 17 year olds that couldn't vote in 2008, can vote today. And 88 year olds that voted McCain in 2008 are most likely dead now. How's that affect the electoral math?
Pennsylvania DUers. Is the Keystone State Really in Play?
Is this some sort of political gimmick by Romney, or is it a real strategy?
Here's my fear. Pennsylvania has no early voting, it did not get the Obama ads defining Romney early in the campaign, there was super storm Sandy that could hold down turnout in the Eastern part of the state, including Philly, there is the coal country message from Romney that could resonate in the Western part of the state, including Pittsburgh, you have a Repuke Sec. of State to help suppress the vote and Romney is spending $2.5 million in TV buys in a state that hasn't seen many ads at the Presidential level all year.
Ease my worry.
Concerned in Massachusetts.
Gallup Swing State Poll Shows Tie Among LV---Obama 4 Point Bounce
President Obama has recovered in USA Today's swing state polling to a tie among likely voters and a 4 point edge among registered voters. Gallup has been the outlier in October with Romney holding a 5 point lead until Gallup suspended polling on Oct. 28 due to super storm Sandy. Gallup should release their final numbers at 1:00 PM today using a 4 day trend line ending yesterday. If the numbers released early this morning are any indication, I'm expecting a tie in that polling data, too, indicating continued momentum toward President Obama in the closing days. This would be consistent with every poll being released, including RW leaning firms like Fox News and Rasmussen.
Link to Gallup Story:
http://themoderatevoice.com/166574/usa-todaygallup-poll-swing-state-voters-split-48-48-between-obama-romney-and-obama-bounce-since-october/
The Numbers are Trending Our Way
I must confess, it was just 2 weeks ago that I was more than just a little worried. I'm not worried anymore.
The latest national numbers have shown a marketable drift toward President Obama. The last 5 national polls have him tied in 4 and ahead by a point in another. Most of these polls are Republican leaning outfits (Fox News, tied and Rasmussen, tied).
What this means to me is that the numbers are moving in our direction. I'm sure these gains are not in the South and are more heavily weighted in the all important battleground states.
RCP has Obama ahead in every battleground state he needs to win, as well as slightly ahead in some he doesn't need to win. The trend line with 60 hours to go is toward the "Blue Team", so not only do we have the lead where we need it, the wind is mildly at our backs.
I feel very good, and I'm no wild eyed optimist, either. We still have to do our GOTV work, but it's easier when people feel that our side will win if we all do our work.
Link to RCP:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
Profile Information
Gender: MaleHometown: Boston
Home country: USA
Current location: Boston
Member since: Fri May 14, 2004, 05:52 PM
Number of posts: 8,652
