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Chichiri

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Member since: Sat Aug 21, 2004, 05:17 PM
Number of posts: 4,667

Journal Archives

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 15, 2016

[font color="blue"]Delegate Count
Pledged Delegates: Sanders 36, Clinton 32 (Sanders +4)
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 394, Sanders 44 (Clinton +350)
Versus Targets (Cook): Clinton +7, Sanders -7.

Next Primary
Nevada caucuses, February 20 (35 pledged delegates).
Targets (Cook): Clinton 16, Sanders 19.[/font]


[font color="darkblue"] Latest Polls
Nevada (TargetPoint): Clinton 45, Sanders 45 (tie).
South Carolina (ARG): Clinton 65, Sanders 27 (Clinton +38).
South Carolina (CBS/YouGov): Clinton 59, Sanders 40 (Clinton +19)
South Carolina (Gravis): Clinton 59, Sanders 41 (Clinton +18).
South Carolina (PPP): Clinton 55, Sanders 34 (Clinton +21).

Latest Polls-Plus Projections (538)
Nevada: Clinton/Sanders 50%.
South Carolina: Clinton 99%+.
Michigan: Clinton 97%.
North Carolina: Clinton 95%.

Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 467, Sanders 2.[/font]


[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 17, Cruz 11, Rubio 10.
Versus Targets: Trump -4, Cruz -5, Rubio -10.
538 South Carolina Projection: Trump 73%, Rubio 17%.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 75, Bush 51, Kasich 20.[/font]


Comments
The Nevada poll is a bit old now, and is a pro-Bernie push poll, but it's still literally the only recent poll we have. Nevada was conducted both before and after the NH primary; the two SC polls were conducted after.

With the two new SC polls today, it seems that the ARG poll that had Clinton +38 was an outlier, and that she's ahead by around 20 points. For reference, Bernie's margin of victory in New Hampshire was 22 points. Between that and the fact that Hillary's target number is slightly higher in SC than Bernie's (28 to 25), it seems that Bernie fans have some small glimmer of hope in SC.

I've tweaked this a bit to make it a bit more readable, to accommodate Bernie fans who want to give more weight (or all weight) to pledged delegates, and because I enjoy tweaking things.


How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates and superdelegates. Superdelegates are not bound to any one candidate, and while the count reflects their stated intentions, they can change their minds before the convention.

The targets are taken from the Cook Political Report's model, based on superdelegate endorsement and demographic conditions favorable to each candidate, and represent the number of delegates each candidate must win in each state in order to stay on track to tie for the nomination. The targets are current as of February 12. The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the projections indicate the probability that the candidate will win that state.

Additions and changes made after the thread is posted will be denoted by italics.

If you have a suggestion for a scorecard or model not covered above, let me know. If this post is useful to you, please K&R!


[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
When I dropped the piano down the mineshaft, I got A-flat minor.[/font]

[hr]

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 14, 2016

[font color="blue"]Delegate Count
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 394, Sanders 44.
Pledged Delegates: Sanders 36, Clinton 32.
Delegate Targets (Cook): Clinton +7, Sanders -7.


Next Primary
Nevada, February 20 (35 pledged delegates).


Latest Polls
Nevada (TargetPoint): Clinton 45, Sanders 45.
South Carolina (ARG): Clinton 65, Sanders 27.
South Carolina (CBS/YouGov): Clinton 59, Sanders 40.


Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)
Nevada: Clinton/Sanders 50%.
South Carolina: Clinton 99%+.
Michigan: Clinton 97%.
North Carolina: Clinton 96%.


Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 467, Sanders 2.[/font]


[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 17, Cruz 11, Rubio 10.
Delegate Targets: Trump -4, Cruz -5, Rubio -10.
538 South Carolina Projection: Trump 70%, Rubio 14%.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 65, Bush 51, Kasich 20.[/font]


Comments
Happy Valentine's Day.

So Scalia's dead. How this will affect the primary remains to be seen, but I'm positive it will be affected in one respect or another. Meanwhile, I was raised to say something nice when someone dies, even an enemy, so let me say this about Scalia: he was a far, far better man than Mao Zedong.

The Nevada poll was conducted both before and after the NH primary. The SC polls were conducted after. The TargetPoint poll is a pro-Sanders push poll conducted by the far-right Washington Free Beacon. 538's projection is based on it, however, because it's the only recent poll.

Everyone was civil when I posted this in GD-P yesterday, so I'll keep doing it for the time being. If you have a suggestion for a scorecard or model not covered above, let me know.


[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
I learned sign language a few years ago. It's pretty handy.[/font]

[hr]

State of the Primary - February 13, 2016

[font color="blue"]Delegate Count
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 394, Sanders 44.
Pledged Delegates: Sanders 36, Clinton 32.
Delegate Targets (Cook): Clinton +7, Sanders -7.

Next Primary
Nevada, February 20 (35 pledged delegates).

Latest Polls
Nevada (TargetPoint): Clinton 45, Sanders 45.

Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)
Nevada: Clinton/Sanders 50%.
South Carolina: Clinton 95%.
Michigan: Clinton 97%.
North Carolina: Clinton 96%.

Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 467, Sanders 2.[/font]

[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 17, Cruz 11, Rubio 10.
Delegate Targets: Trump -4, Cruz -5, Rubio -10.
538 South Carolina Projection: Trump 64%, Rubio 15%.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 65, Bush 51, Kasich 20.[/font]

Comments
That TargetPoint poll is a pro-Sanders push poll conducted by the far-right Washington Free Beacon. 538's projection is based on it, however, because it's the only recent poll.

This is a daily sheet I started to compile a few days ago, just for my own reference. My qualifications for objectivity are a similar project I ran in the 2012 general election, as well as the fact that I relied on subjective information in 2004 and was completely blindsided when Kerry lost. I intended to post this in the Hillary Clinton group, but I'll give it a pilot test in GD-P, and we'll see if both sides deem it useful (and can keep it civil and stuff). If you have a suggestion for a scorecard or model not covered above, let me know.

[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
I don't know why the calendar maker fired me. All I did was take a day off![/font]
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