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Chichiri

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Member since: Sat Aug 21, 2004, 06:17 PM
Number of posts: 4,667

Journal Archives

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 10, 2016

Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,223, Sanders 574 (Clinton +649).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 772, Sanders 549 (Clinton +223).
Versus Targets: Clinton 772/682 (+90), Sanders 549/639 (-90).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 45.9% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 8 (MI, MS): Clinton 95, Sanders 71 (Clinton +24).
Versus Targets: Clinton 95/86 (+9), Sanders 71/80 (-9).


Next Primary: March 15

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: 691 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 365, Sanders 326.
Northern Marianas votes on March 12: 6 delegates.



Comments
The plot slightly thickens! A recalculation in Michigan changed the delegate count to Bernie 67, Hillary 63. These are exactly their targets. I would not have expected to see that in a big state like Michigan, but there it is. We have a tie versus targets. (This is actually the third state that has produced a tie versus targets; the folks who put the demographic model together knew what they were doing!)

The consensus among the polling community seems to be that the Michigan snafu was the result of many different factors. Most of them probably have a single source of error: Pollsters rely partly on the results of past elections to serve as a model for the present one, and in the 2008 primary, for reasons I won't go into here (let's just say it's Howard Dean's fault), Barack Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan. So it's not a reliable model for anything.

This makes it more likely that Michigan was a one-off fluke, and that the polling in other states remains more or less valid. March 15 will give us an idea -- Ohio and Illinois are Midwestern states with open primaries, like Michigan.


How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics.


Iditarod Update
Jeff King out of Cripple at 03:05; Dallas Seavey in at 15:51 yesterday, Noah Burmeister at 18:59 (most mushers are declaring their mandatory 24-hour rest stops near here).

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 9, 2016

Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,221, Sanders 571 (Clinton +650).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 770, Sanders 551 (Clinton +219).
Versus Targets: Clinton 770/682 (+88), Sanders 551/639 (-88).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 46.0% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 8 (MI, MS): Clinton 93, Sanders 73 (Clinton +20).
Versus Targets: Clinton 93/86 (+7), Sanders 73/80 (-7).


Next Primary: March 15

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: 691 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 365, Sanders 326.
Northern Marianas votes on March 12: 6 delegates.



Comments
As the headline of The Onion read in the period following 9/11, holy fucking shit.

Nobody, but nobody, had any rational reason to expect Bernie to win Michigan. Not a single poll had Hillary ahead by less than 5 points, and many polls showed her 20 points or more. This is the biggest primary upset since 1984, when Mondale led by 17 points in New Hampshire, but Gary Hart ended up winning by 9 points.

We don't know how it happened, and as you can see, it didn't help Bernie much at all; it just prolonged his stay in the race. Bernie has met or exceeded his target in eight contests, and in no case by more than 4 delegates. Even in Michigan, he exceeded his target by only 2.

Even so, Hillary supporters are very rightly reeling, and examining ourselves for complacency. For my part, I am temporarily (I hope) discontinuing the polls and projections part of this post. From now on, assume every poll is wrong, especially in open primary states (this includes Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio). I'm going to focus on hard numbers, and on getting out the vote everywhere I can.

I'm also discontinuing the GOP section because screw 'em.


How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics.


Iditarod Update
Dallas Seavey out of Ophir at 02:21; Brent Sass in at 00:58, Nicholas Petit at 01:16.

You can lose EVERY state, and still win the primary.

Did you know that?

There are six races in United States territories, and a seventh for the Democrats Abroad organization, which is exactly what it sounds like. Together these seven races offer 119 delegates. If a candidate comes in behind by one delegate in every state, he or she only needs about 71% of these non-state delegates to win the nomination. Nifty, eh? A lot of people overlook the territories, but put together they have more voting power than all but nine states!

So if you're a Democrat Abroad, be sure that you send your ballot in by the end of the day! (Results will be announced on March 21). And if you live in the Northern Marianas, remember to vote on Saturday!

Illinois (Chicago Tribune): Clinton 67, Sanders 25 (Clinton +42).

By demographics, this moderately favors Hillary; if the election were split 50-50 nationwide, Hillary would get 54% of Illinois's vote.

Illinois has 156 delegates and votes on March 15.

Florida (SurveyUSA): Clinton 61, Sanders 30 (Clinton +31).

By demographics, this state moderately favors Hillary; if the nation were split 50-50, she would get 54% of the vote in Florida.

Florida has 214 delegates, and votes on March 15.

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 8, 2016

Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,130, Sanders 499 (Clinton +631).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 677, Sanders 478 (Clinton +199).
Versus Targets: Clinton 677/596 (+81), Sanders 478/559 (-81).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 46.6% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 6 (ME): Sanders 16, Clinton 9 (Sanders +7).
Versus Targets: Sanders 16/15 (+1), Clinton 9/10 (-1).


Next Primary: March 8

Michigan, Mississippi: 166 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 86, Sanders 80.


Latest Polls

New York (Siena): Clinton 55, Sanders 34 (Clinton +21).
Idaho (UtahPolicy/Dan Jones): Sanders 47, Clinton 45 (Sanders +2).
Ohio (PPP): Clinton 56, Sanders 35 (Clinton +21).


Current Polls-Plus Projections

Michigan: Clinton 60.2, Sanders 37.3.
Mississippi: Clinton 79.2, Sanders 14.5.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.3, Sanders 36.1.
Ohio: Clinton 61.9, Sanders 35.3.
Florida: Clinton 66.1, Sanders 30.9.
Illinois: Clinton 66.0, Sanders 29.9.


Quick Glance at the GOP

Pledged Delegates: Trump 390, Cruz 303, Rubio 153.
Michigan Projection: Trump 37, Kasich 24, Cruz 23.


Comments
Michigan and Mississippi vote today. Hillary's target for the day is somewhat higher than Bernie's, thanks to Mississippi. Once that target is made, however, it's up to Bernie to perform well in Michigan, where he's demographically favored, and where he's currently around 20 points behind.

Barring a catastrophe, the narrative going into March 15 will be that Hillary just won two states including Michigan. We then have five states on the 15th which, combined, will yield almost as many delegates as Super Tuesday. There is no data on Missouri, but the other four states all have Hillary ahead by very comfortable margins.

Many analysts are saying that the race is over, that Hillary truly is inevitable, that there's no chance that Bernie can catch up. Are they right? I personally am about 95% on that. After tonight and next week, I expect I'll either be able to ramp it up to 100%, or be forced to walk it back a little.

Remember, though, that it won't be based on how well Hillary does against Bernie, but on how well she does against her own targets. Hillary is +199 against Bernie, but +81 against her own target. This approach makes the race seem narrower than it is, which in turn should make Bernie supporters happy. But the virtue of it is, it doesn't matter how well how well one candidate or another is supposed to perform in coming states, because the targets take that into account. If Bernie is highly favored in a state like Washington, for instance, then his target is that much higher.

After March 15, twenty-six states will have voted. However far Bernie has fallen behind his own target at that time, he'll have twenty-four states in which to make it up.

But that's for next week. Let's see what happens tonight!


How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. Latest polls are taken from RealClearPolitics. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics. The projection numbers indicate the average of the candidates' expected vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's at least a 10% chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state.


Iditarod Update
Lance Mackey out of Rohn @ 18:54, Dallas Seavey @ 19:52, Aliy Zirkle @ 20:01.

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 7, 2016

There's a GDP version of this at http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511435593 - please keep it kicked!

Reprinted from http://stateoftheprimary.blogspot.com with permission of the author (me).



Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,130, Sanders 499 (Clinton +631).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 677, Sanders 478 (Clinton +199).
Versus Targets: Clinton 677/596 (+81), Sanders 478/559 (-81).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 46.6% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 6 (ME): Sanders 16, Clinton 9 (Sanders +7).
Versus Targets: Sanders 16/15 (+1), Clinton 9/10 (-1).


Next Primary: March 8

Michigan, Mississippi: 166 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 86, Sanders 80.


Latest Polls

Michigan (ARG): Clinton 60, Sanders 36 (Clinton +24).
Michigan (NBC/WSJ): Clinton 57, Sanders 40 (Clinton +17).
Michigan (CBS/YouGov): Clinton 55, Sanders 44 (Clinton +11).
Michigan (Monmouth): Clinton 55, Sanders 42 (Clinton +13).
Michigan (Mitchell): Clinton 66, Sanders 29 (Clinton +37).
New York (Siena): Clinton 55, Sanders 34 (Clinton +21).
Idaho (UtahPolicy/Dan Jones): Sanders 47, Clinton 45 (Sanders +2).


Current Polls-Plus Projections

Michigan: Clinton 60.2, Sanders 37.4.
Mississippi: Clinton 79.1, Sanders 14.6.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.1, Sanders 36.4.
Ohio: Clinton 60.4, Sanders 37.3.
Florida: Clinton 65.9, Sanders 31.1.
Illinois: Clinton 65.8, Sanders 30.1.



Quick Glance at the GOP

Pledged Delegates: Trump 391, Cruz 304, Rubio 154.
Michigan Projection: Trump 36, Kasich 23, Cruz 20.



Comments
The pledged delegate numbers are probably going to be in a minor but constant state of flux from here on out, as states check and double-check and finalize their delegate counts. Thus you might see one candidate N delegates ahead one day, and N+3 delegates ahead the next, even though there has been no election since. Just one of the quirks of the technological age, friends.

Thanks to some such recalculating in Louisiana, the results of March 5 are now that Hillary and Bernie both hit their targets dead on, and so the versus-target numbers did not change. Meanwhile, Bernie pulled a little bit ahead of his target in Maine, winning the state 16-9, making him +1 versus target for the weekend. This may seem worrisome (or exciting, depending on who you're voting for!), but Bernie only has 31 states and some odd territories to make up ground. It doesn't matter how much the coming states favor him, because he has to make up ground against his own targets.

Even more polls for Michigan today -- only one more day! -- and also new polls for New York and Idaho.

(That's what I said: Idaho!?)

Remember that for the next week and a half or so, I'm going to posting results from the Iditarod sled dog race in Alaska, a race which I've followed since I was a kid. Why this instead of the pun of the day? Because it's my post! Puns will resume after the first finishers arrive in Nome.



How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. Latest polls are taken from RealClearPolitics. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics. The projection numbers indicate the average of the candidates' expected vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's at least a 10% chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state.


Iditarod Update
Nicholas Petit into Rainy Pass at 8:22, Aliy Zirkle out of Finger Lake at 7:01.

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 6, 2016

Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,121, Sanders 481 (Clinton +640).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 670, Sanders 460 (Clinton +210).
Versus Targets: Clinton 670/586 (+84), Sanders 460/544 (-84).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 46.4% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 5 (KS, LA, NE): Clinton 59, Sanders 50 (Clinton +9).
Versus Targets: Clinton 59/57 (+2), Sanders 50/52 (-2).


Next Primary: TODAY

Maine: 25 delegates.
Targets: Clinton 10, Sanders 15.


Latest Polls

Michigan (ARG): Clinton 60, Sanders 36 (Clinton +24).
Michigan (NBC/WSJ): Clinton 57, Sanders 40 (Clinton +17).
Michigan (CBS/YouGov): Clinton 55, Sanders 44 (Clinton +11).


Current Polls-Plus Projections

Michigan: Clinton 62.3, Sanders 35.2.*
Mississippi: Clinton 79.1, Sanders 14.6.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.1, Sanders 36.4.
Ohio: Clinton 60.4, Sanders 37.3.
Florida: Clinton 65.9, Sanders 31.1.
Illinois: Clinton 65.8, Sanders 30.1.

*does not include latest polls


Quick Glance at the GOP

Pledged Delegates: Trump 391, Cruz 304, Rubio 125.
Michigan Projection: Trump 36, Kasich 23, Cruz 20.



Comments
Kansas went very well for Bernie yesterday: he exceeded his target by 4 delegates. In Louisiana, meanwhile, Hillary exceeded her target by 6, and in Nebraska both candidates hit their targets dead-on, so Hillary was +2 against target for the day. (If you prefer to count on your fingers, she was +9.)

Meanwhile, new polls out of Michigan show the race narrowing dramatically in that state. The 538 projection above does not take into account the NBC or CBS polls, which shows Bernie behind by as little as 11 points. Sadly, Michigan is not going to be the absolute blowout that Hillary fans were hoping for.

The fact remains, however, that she is poised to comfortably win a state that demographically favors Bernie; his target is 4 delegates above Hillary's. So barring a catastrophe, the day after tomorrow will see Hillary increase her lead on the track.

On the dark side, the pundits are saying to stick a fork in Rubio, but that Cruz actually has a shot at beating Trump. Make no mistake: Cruz is Trump, without the amusement factor (and with a maple leaf). The prospect of a Republican President is always cause for nervousness, but with Rubio gone from serious competition, the prospects are downright terrifying.

A few changes to be aware of. You may have noticed that I'm now counting the percentage of remaining pledged delegates that Hillary needs to secure the majority of pledged delegates. I've also discontinued the endorsement score tracker: realistically, it's not going to change much before the end of the race. If something big happens, like Liz Warren endorsing, I'll note it here.

One more thing: the Iditarod sled dog race begins today in Alaska! Many liberals don't approve of sled dog racing, but I have a soft spot for it, and have had since childhood. Those dogs are absolutely magnificent (and when a musher does mistreat his or her dogs, he or she should be thrown to the wolves). (Hey, is that a pun?) So from tomorrow until the end of the race, I'm going to post Iditarod results at the bottom.

(One more one more thing: the stork brought my wife and I a beautiful baby niece yesterday! Here's hoping she will never know a world without a woman President!)



How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. Latest polls are taken from RealClearPolitics. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics. The projection numbers indicate the average of the candidates' expected vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's at least a 10% chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state.


Pun of the Day
A musher who mistreats his dogs should be thrown to the wolves!

What do you mean, Hillary won Minnesota!?

Hillary's strengths are with minorities and moderates. Bernie's strengths are with hard-liberals and young folks. This means that some states obviously favor some candidates more than others -- but what's more, by looking at the actual demographics, we can actually put a number on that advantage. We can determine how many delegates from each state each candidate should win, if national polling is 50-50.

So for example, Bernie's advantage in Colorado was large enough that we would have expected him to pick up six delegates more than Hillary. Instead, however, he picked up ten more than Hillary. In this sense, he not only won Colorado, but he prevented Hillary from getting the number of delegates that she would have expected from that state.

Another example is New Hampshire: the demographics tell us that Bernie should have beaten Hillary by six delegates in that state. And that's exactly what happened. In this sense, although Bernie got more delegates in New Hampshire, as far as expectations were concerned it was a tie.

So what about Minnesota?

We're a mostly white, very liberal state with a large youth population and high voter turnout. So judging from the demographics, Bernie should have defeated Hillary by 17 delegates in the North Star State. He didn't. He beat her by 15. So in the sense that Hillary did better than expected here, and prevented Bernie from doing as well as expected, she won Minnesota.

I know it might seem counter-intuitive, but the math is what it is.

This is what I mean when I talk about targets. When I say that Hillary's target to date is 529, and Bernie's is 492, I mean this: we always knew that Hillary was going to do better than Bernie in South Carolina and the Super Tuesday states, and that she would be ahead of him at this point. But more than that: we know, from looking at the demographics, how much better she would have done if voters across the country were split 50-50. If that were the case, then Hillary should be 37 delegates ahead of Bernie right now.

She's not. She's 197 delegates ahead.

When I say that Bernie is 80 delegates behind target, what I mean is this: We know that Bernie is going to fare better in most of the states after March 15. But in order to make up ground on Hillary, he needs to pick up 80 delegates more than we already expect him to do based on the demographics.

For example, Bernie is expected to win Kansas tonight. But we can quantify that expectation, and say that Bernie should win 19 delegates from Kansas, to Hillary's 14. If Bernie wins 20 delegates from Kansas, then he is one delegate over that state's target, and that 80-delegate deficit becomes 79. If he wins 21 delegates from Kansas, his deficit shrinks to 78, and so on. Similarly, if he only wins 18 delegates to Hillary's 15, his deficit increases to 81, and Hillary's surplus over target increases to 81. In that sense, Hillary will have "won" Kansas, even though she took fewer delegates.

Similarly, if Bernie can pick up more than 18 of Louisiana's 51 delegates tonight, he will have "won" Louisiana, even though he will walk away with fewer delegates than Hillary.



One more thing: Of the 15 states and 1 territory that have voted so far, even though Bernie took home more delegates in five states, he actually "won" only three of them (VT, CO, OK), all by small margins and "tied" in a fourth (NH). Hillary has "won" everything else, mostly by large margins. And I use quotation marks to signify that this sense of the word "won" is different from everyday use, not that it is unreal or less real. Quite the contrary.

So if you're watching the results tonight, Bernie's target numbers are 19 in Kansas, 18 in Louisiana, and 15 in Kansas. He also has a target of 15 in Maine, which votes tomorrow.

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 5, 2016

Taken from http://stateoftheprimary.blogspot.com/ with permission of the author (me). As always, please kick this thread so that non-night-owls can see it.



Delegate Count

Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 1,058, Sanders 431 (Clinton +627).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 609, Sanders 412 (Clinton +197).
Versus Targets: Clinton 609/529 (+80), Sanders 412/492 (-80).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 46.8% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

Super Tuesday: Clinton 518, Sanders 347 (Clinton +171).
Versus Targets: Clinton 518/453 (+65), Sanders 347/412 (-65).


Next Primary: March 5

Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska: 109 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 57, Sanders 52.


Latest Polls

Florida (University of North Florida): Clinton 54, Sanders 24 (Clinton +30).
Mississippi (Magellan): Clinton 65, Sanders 11 (Clinton +54).
Louisiana (Magellan): Clinton 61, Sanders 14 (Clinton +47).


Current Polls-Plus Projections

Louisiana: Clinton 75.0, Sanders 17.9.
Michigan: Clinton 64.0, Sanders 33.3.
Mississippi: Clinton 79.2, Sanders 14.5.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.6, Sanders 35.8
Ohio: Clinton 61.0, Sanders 36.7.
Florida: Clinton 66.3, Sanders 30.7.
Illinois: Clinton 66.2, Sanders 29.7.


Current Endorsement Score

Clinton 478, Sanders 5.



Quick Glance at the GOP

Pledged Delegates: Trump 338, Cruz 236, Rubio 112.
Michigan Projection: Trump 39, Cruz 21, Rubio 20.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 168, Cruz 34, Kasich 31.



Comments
Happy March 5th! Kansas, Nebraska, and Louisiana vote today, Maine tomorrow.

Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine are all states that demographically favor Bernie, and are all "black box" states, meaning there are no recent polls or projections. So far Bernie is two for two in such states, so my guess is that he will win all three by decent margins. Indeed, he may win more delegates than Hillary will win in Louisiana -- she is projected to win there by a landslide, but only 51 delegates are up for grabs in the Bayou State. So Bernie might finish the weekend with a notch taken out of his 197-delegate deficit.

Then, of course, come Mississippi and Michigan on Tuesday.

Thanks to everyone who sent me well wishes during my recovery from a brief but nasty stomach bug. I'm still recovering, and taking it easy for a while, but it probably gets better from here.


How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination, accounting for demographics. The projection numbers indicate the average of the candidates' expected vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's at least a 10% chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state.


Pun of the Day
He's a pessimist, which means his blood type is B-negative!
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