HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Chichiri » Journal
Page: 1

Chichiri

Profile Information

Member since: Sat Aug 21, 2004, 06:17 PM
Number of posts: 4,667

Journal Archives

Election Forecast Summaries: 11/2 (morning)

If this series is helpful to you, please K&R!

From now until the election I'll post once or twice a day with these summaries. "p(RE)" means "probability of re-election," although I've now gone to a standard percentage-based unit. "unch" means unchanged from last report.

[font color="blue"]
Election Projection: O 290 (unch)

University of Illinois U-C: O 296.7 (+2.3); p(RE)=99.4% (+1.5%)

Electoral-vote.com: O 281, R 215, T 42 (O-18, R+9, T+9)

Huffington Post: O 259, R 191, T 88 (O-18, R-15, T+33)

TPM/PollTracker: O 285, R 191, T 62 (unch)

FiveThirtyEight: O 303.4 (unch); p(RE)=80.9% (unch)

Princeton: O 318 (O+3); p(RE)=97%, 99.3% (+1, +0.3%)

DeSart/Holbrook: O 281 (unch); p(RE)=87.05% (+0.21%)[/font]
[font color="red"]
...And Just For Laughs, UnSkewedPolls: O 179, R 359 (unch from 10/25) [/font] which means my bet with Dean Chambers is presently worth $2,488!

Election Forecast Summaries: 11/1 (afternoon)

I've added a new tracker to this list, TPM's which is powered by PollTracker. Tx4Obama gave me a huge list of electoral maps last night, but except for TPM, most of the ones I didn't have were more interested in keeping it a horse race than in presenting an up to date snapshot.

From now until the election I'll post once or twice a day with these summaries. "p(RE)" means "probability of re-election," although I've now gone to a standard percentage-based unit. "unch" means unchanged from last report.

[font color="blue"]
Votamatic: O 332 (unch)

Election Projection: O 290 (new)

University of Illinois U-C: O 294.4 (unch); p(RE)=97.9% (unch)

Electoral-vote.com: O 299, R 206, T 33 (O+19, T-19)

Huffington Post: O 277, R 206, T 55 (unch)

TPM/PollTracker: O 285, R 191, T 62 (new)

FiveThirtyEight: O 300.4 (+1.4); p(RE)=79.0% (+1.6%)

Princeton: O 316 (O+13); p(RE)=96%, 99.1% (+3%, +1%)

DeSart/Holbrook: O 281 (unch); p(RE)=86.84% (+0.15%)[/font]
[font color="red"]
...And Just For Laughs, UnSkewedPolls: O 179, R 359 (unch from 10/25) [/font] which means my bet with Dean Chambers is presently worth $2,428!
Go to Page: 1