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Chichiri

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Member since: Sat Aug 21, 2004, 06:17 PM
Number of posts: 4,667

Journal Archives

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 29, 2016

70 Days to California

Delegate Count


Total Delegates: Clinton 1,712, Sanders 1004 (Clinton +742).
Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,267, Sanders 1037 (Clinton +230).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,267/1,174 (+92), Sanders 1037/1129 (-128).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.5% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 26 (538): Sanders 104, Clinton 38 (Sanders +66)
Versus Targets: Sanders 104/81 (+23), Clinton 38/61 (-23).


Next Primary: April 5

Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
Targets: Sanders 48, Clinton 38.



Comments
Where do we stand today compared to where we stood in 2008?

Because the calendars and the number of delegates are so different between the two years, there are a few different ways to make the comparison. If we look at the percentage of delegates so far allocated, for example, which is about 57%, then we're at the same place as February 5, 2008, the end of Super Tuesday. (I know, there were a LOT of states that day!) On that day, Obama's lead over Hillary was 20 delegates.

That "20" doesn't tell the full story, though. Because there were 3,410 delegates up for grabs in 2008, as opposed to 4,051 today, we can adjust for "delegate inflation." So in today's delegates, his lead would be 24 delegates.

If we look at the number of contests so far held, 35, then we're in the same place as February 10, 2008, the day that Maine voted. On that day, Obama's lead was 75 delegates. Adjusted for inflation, that's 89 delegates.

If we look at the actual date, March 28, then we're at the point in 2008 where all but 10 contests have been decided. On that day, Obama's lead was 148 delegates. Adjusted for inflation, 176 delegates.

Obama's maximum lead over Hillary at any time was 151 delegates -- adjusted for inflation, 180 delegates. And at the end of it all, Obama's lead was 106 pledged delegates -- adjusted for inflation, 124 delegates.

At present, Hillary's lead over Bernie is 230 delegates.



How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, the total delegate count is taken from the AP, the total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times, and all other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
This book on antigravity is impossible to put down!

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 28, 2016

71 Days to California


Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,712, Sanders 1004 (Clinton +742).
Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,267, Sanders 1,037 (Clinton +230).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,267/1,174 (+92), Sanders 1037/1129 (-92).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.5% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 26 (538): Sanders 104, Clinton 38 (Sanders +66)
Versus Targets: Sanders 104/81 (+23), Clinton 38/61 (-23).


Next Primary: April 5

Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
Targets: Sanders 48, Clinton 38.



Comments
Hillary got licked on Saturday; there's really no way to spin it, except to say we knew it was coming. She was up against a "perfect storm" of conditions: open caucuses in mostly white states with affluent liberals.

Even so, she could have performed better, as she did in Iowa by putting a laser-sharp focus on that state before its election. But she chose to save her money, spending only $54,000 in Washington. Bernie outspent her by a factor of 26 in that state. So he won big. You'd still rather have Hillary's numbers today than Bernie's numbers, but Bernie took a big step toward her on Saturday.

Now that's done. It's behind us, and we turn our attention to the remainder of the primary. Here's a quick look ahead:

Of the 22 contests remaining, 4 are caucuses, 9 are open, semi-open, or semi-closed primaries, and 9 are closed primaries.

Bernie is 10 for 14 in caucuses. The caucuses that remain give a total of 88 delegates.

Bernie is 4 for 17 in open, semi-open, and semi-closed primaries (and there's really not a huge difference here, except that semis keep out Republicans). The open and semi-* primaries that remain give a total of 882 delegates.

Bernie is 1 for 4 in closed primaries, the one being Democrats Abroad. The closed primaries that remain give a total of 759 delegates.

The next state to vote, Wisconsin, is an open primary. I'm still doing my best to avoid sharing polling data and projections, but let's just say that we can win it, and should pour our hearts into volunteering in and for the Badger state over the next 8 days.


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, the total delegate count is taken from the AP, the total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times, and all other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
A Bernie supporter tried to annoy me with bird puns, but toucan play at that game!

You know what's really lousy about the climate here on DU?

It's pushing us to the right.

I am in favor of tuition free, or at least reduced tuition, college. I am in favor of universal health care. I am certainly in favor of investing in infrastructure, youth jobs, and clean energy. And I'm in favor of making the rich pay for most of this (in fact I don't think Bernie's plan goes far enough in this regard).

But rather than point out that real change happens incrementally, that revolution is nigh impossible and that the cost of trying is too high, which they simply won't accept because reasons, I find myself looking for reasons to say that tuition free college is a bad idea, that investing in infrastructure costs too much, that we're just not ready for single payer healthcare. Not because I really believe these things, but because the Bernie supporters are so damn infuriating that I want to take them down a peg however I possibly can. And then I find myself kinda-sorta believing these things. I find myself farther to the right than when I began.

I'm sure I'm not alone here.

This is why the Bernie supporters either need to become way more civil than they are, or they need to go. This is also why we Hillary supporters need to examine our own behavior for incivility, to keep our retaliatory impulses in check, and to work toward unity by setting an example. Democratic Underground exists to support Democrats, and there are far more Democrats in our numbers than in theirs, per capita. But if we can't be civil in the face of their civility, then we should be the ones to go.

This starts with me. I've been very combative in GDP lately, and have probably pushed Bernie supporters reflexively farther away from unity. My reasoning is that they're never going to be interested in unity anyway. But what if that's not true? What if they will respond better to simple statements of facts combined with civility and respect for their positions? I'm not sure I know how to do it at this point, but would it harm me to try?

But more to the point: if we could adopt this model of behavior, would the majority of Bernie supporters reciprocate?

I do think that they should bear the lion's share of responsibility here, and I do blame them for this breakdown in relations. It's obvious that they're focused on Hillary while we're focused on policy (although there are notable exceptions on both sides). As a result, while we're pushing them farther away from Hillary, they're pushing us farther away from the left. It may not be what they intend, but it is the inevitable result of their actions.

So for the time being, "in the face of their civility" is a moot point, and we have no reason to go anywhere.

But suppose they did clean up their act. If there's a chance of that happening, then the best way to bring it about is to set a model for behavior for them to emulate. But I don't know if we can, and I don't know if they will.

Just so I'm not misunderstood, however, this doesn't free us from the responsibility of keeping ourselves civil. Let us set an example by respecting the Bernie supporters as people, by focusing on policy and qualifications, by keeping our tone moderated, and by refusing to engage if we don't think we can do that. Let us do these things even if Bernie supporters do not reciprocate. To be sure, we should call on them to do so, but their acting like jerks should not free us to act like jerks.

And let us remember that we are all progressives, and we all want pretty much the same things, even if Bernie supporters don't acknowledge this. Let's not let our anger and our reflex reactions push us to the right. We do that, the Republicans win.

Even if it doesn't improve the climate, even if the silliness on DU continues until Hillary clinches the nomination and the admins finally clamp down, we'll be better people, and better progressives, for it.

Just a few idle thoughts for Friday Afternoon. Hope it's worth something.

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 24, 2016

Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,690, Sanders 946 (Clinton +744).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,223, Sanders 920 (Clinton +303).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,223/1,113 (+109), Sanders 920/1048 (-128).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.1% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 15: Sanders 73, Clinton 55 (Sanders +18); 3 not yet allocated.
Versus Targets: Sanders 73/74 (-1), Clinton 55/57 (-2).


Next Primary: March 26

Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: 142 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 81, Clinton 61.



Comments
FiveThirtyEight's allocated delegate count is being wonky again, and I'm sick of retroactive calculations, so I'm using the New York Times for both total and individual pledged delegate counts. This will mean the count is different than yesterday, but it should only go up on both sides. Since allocation data is always coming in these days, these counts might change daily (so be sure to read every day!).

The race will continue to narrow at least until Wisconsin, more likely until New York, and quite possibly until April 26 when five northeastern states vote. (I can already see the advertising for "Northeastern Tuesday." Better than "Super Tuesday 6," I guess.) This Saturday, of course, will be a very good day for Bernie; Hillary's job is simply to keep the margin of victory as low as she can. You can help her -- donate, make phone calls, canvas, whatever you can do. Every delegate counts.



How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. The total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
Somebody wants me to use decimals instead of fractions. They have a point!

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 23, 2016

Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,681, Sanders 937 (Clinton +744).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,233, Sanders 929 (Clinton +304).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,233/1,113 (+119), Sanders 929/1048 (-119).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.0% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 15: Sanders 74, Clinton 57 (Sanders +17).
Versus Targets: Sanders 74/74 (+0), Clinton 57/57 (+0).


Next Primary: March 26

Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: 142 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 81, Clinton 61.



Comments
Bernie won the night last night, his blowout wins in Idaho and Utah more than cancelling out Hillary's quite comfortable win in Arizona. As you can see by the targets, in the end both candidates performed exactly as the demographics predicted they would.

Which is not good news for Bernie. He needs to drastically overshoot his targets in order to stand a chance. And the pool of available delegates is shrinking: despite taking 17 more delegates than Hillary yesterday, his percentage of remaining delegates needed went up by a tenth of a percent. He has 21 states and 4 territories left to make up this difference.

For the next few weeks -- possibly until Wisconsin, more likely until New York -- there will be no convincing Bernie supporters of the necessity of unity.


How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
I don't care for perchloroethyline, and I don't like glycol ether!

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 22, 2016

Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,630, Sanders 870 (Clinton +760).
Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,176, Sanders 855 (Clinton +321).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,176/1,056 (+119), Sanders 855/974 (-119).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.1% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 15 (538): Clinton 397, Sanders 294 (Clinton +103).
Versus Targets: Clinton 379/365 (+32), Sanders 294/326 (-32).
Democrats Abroad: Sanders 9, Clinton 4 (Sanders +5). (not yet reflected in totals)
Versus Targets: Sanders 9/6 (+2), Clinton 4/6 (-2).


Next Primary: TODAY

Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.


Comments
Happy Arizona Day! (The media is calling it Western Tuesday, but to hell with that, I'm calling it Arizona Day.)

Bernie is currently 1,171 delegates shy of the nomination. He needs 58.0% of all remaining pledged delegates to win.

A total of 131 delegates are up for grabs from today's three states. Demographically, Bernie is expected to win 74 of them, or 56.5%. If he does this, he will gain 17 delegates on Hillary, and will need 58.1% of all remaining delegates in order to win the nomination. So his job actually gets harder if he performs as per his demographic advantage.

If he outperforms expectations, and wins, let's say, 85 delegates (or 64.9%), he will gain 39 delegates on Hillary, and will need only 57.5% of all remaining pledged delegates to win.

On the other hand, if he ties with Hillary -- let's say he wins 66 to Hillary's 65 -- then obviously he gains only one delegate on Hillary, and will need 58.5% of all remaining pledged delegates to win.

Either way, after today the pool of contests, which started with 50 states and 7 territories (including Democrats Abroad) will be down to 21 states and 4 territories.


How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
If you Russia round and Ukraine your neck, don't Crimea river!

A few metrics for "Western Tuesday."

Bernie is currently 1,171 delegates shy of the nomination. He needs 58.0% of all remaining pledged delegates to win.

A total of 131 delegates are up for grabs tomorrow. Demographically, Bernie is expected to win 74 of them, or 56.5%. If he does this, he will gain 17 delegates on Hillary (who is currently ahead by 321 delegates), and will need 58.1% of all remaining delegates in order to win the nomination. So his job actually gets harder if he performs as per his demographic advantage.

If he outperforms expectations, and wins, let's say, 85 delegates (or 64.9%), he will gain 39 delegates on Hillary, and will need only 57.5% of all remaining pledged delegates to win.

On the other hand, if he ties with Hillary -- let's say he wins 66 to Hillary's 65 -- then obviously he gains only one delegate on Hillary, and will need 58.5% of all remaining pledged delegates to win.

Either way, after tomorrow the pool of contests, which started with 50 states and 7 territories (including Democrats Abroad) will be down to 21 states and 4 territories.

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 21, 2016

Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,614, Sanders 856 (Clinton +758).
Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,172, Sanders 846 (Clinton +326).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,172/1,050 (+122), Sanders 846/968 (-122).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.0% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 15 (538): Clinton 397, Sanders 294 (Clinton +103).
Versus Targets: Clinton 379/365 (+32), Sanders 294/326 (-32).
Democrats Abroad: Sanders 9, Clinton 4 (Sanders +5). (not yet reflected in totals)
Versus Targets: Sanders 9/6 (+2), Clinton 4/6 (-2).


Next Primary: March 22

Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.



Comments
Happy Spring!

The results of the Democrats Abroad vote is in, and Bernie picked up a net gain of 5 delegates (results taken from the Democrats Abroad website). This should not be surprising to anyone; for Democrats living abroad, their main link to what's happening back home is usually social media, and Bernie has already demonstrated mastery over social media. I'm a little surprised he didn't win by more.

As it is, this win cancels out about one-quarter of his net loss from Ohio.

Democrats Abroad is one of three contests where some poor delegate would have to be chopped in half in order for both candidates to meet their target. Once the DA results are factored in, Bernie's deficit against target will be down to 119 delegates.

Bernie supporters are already near-impossible to convince that the time has come for unity. After the news about DA's results -- which can indeed be called a landslide, in the same sense that the waves destroying a little kid's sand castle is a landslide -- I'm sure they will become flat-out impossible.

Folks in Arizona, Idaho and Utah, be sure to vote tomorrow!


How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day

My brother used to be a banker, but then he lost interest!


STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 18, 2016

Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,614, Sanders 856 (Clinton +758).
Pledged Delegates (AP): Clinton 1,147, Sanders 830 (Clinton +317).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,147/1,050 (+97), Sanders 825/968 (-138).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.4% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 15 (AP): Clinton 379, Sanders 276 (Clinton +103); 36 not yet allocated.
Versus Targets: Clinton 379/365 (+14), Sanders 276/326 (-50).


Next Primary: March 22

Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.



Comments
The NCAA thing isn't working out, so it's back to puns for now.

The media outlets have officially called Missouri for Hillary, and Bernie is not requesting a recount (which strikes me as odd if he's fighting for every delegate), so Hillary has officially swept all five of the March 15 states. This was always possible given the polls and projections, but I don't think anyone on the Hillary side wanted to jinx the whole thing by voicing the possibility. I myself was privately predicting three out of five for her!

MattTX, the Bernie supporter at DailyKos who runs his own extremely detailed analysis of the primary, released a new set of benchmarks for a narrow Bernie victory. He released this after Michigan but before March 15. Here's how they stacked up.

Florida: Benchmark 69, Bernie has 65, 16 unallocated.
Illinois: Benchmark 69, Bernie has 70, 13 unallocated.
Missouri: Benchmark 38, Bernie has 34, 3 unallocated.
North Carolina: Benchmark 36, Bernie has 45, 3 unallocated.
Ohio: Benchmark 67, Bernie has 62, 1 unallocated.

Doesn't look bad at all for Bernie, does it? This, however, comes from a dynamic model which assumes that Bernie's national numbers are lousy now, but will improve after March 15. Improve by how much?

See for yourself:






Likely? Plausible? Possible? You decide.




How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. The pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
I don't like the orators of ancient history; they tend to Babylon!

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 17, 2016

Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,606, Sanders 851 (Clinton +755).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,139, Sanders 825 (Clinton +314).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,139/1,050 (+89), Sanders 825/968 (-143).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.5% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 15: Clinton 371, Sanders 271 (Clinton +100); 49 not yet allocated.
Versus Targets: Clinton 371/365 (+6), Sanders 271/326 (-55).


Next Primary: March 22

Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.



Comments
For all my professed love of arithmetic, I made a couple of BIG errors in yesterday's SOTP. I'm not sure how or why, but I transposed Bernie's total delegate count (including superdelegates) into his versus targets count, thus giving him about 26 more pledged delegates than he already has. I also miscalculated, and/or misread my own calculation, about Hillary's percentage of pledged delegates remaining.

So please feel free to double check my math here:

4,051 total pledged delegates, minus Hillary's 1,139 pledged delegates, minus Bernie's 825 pledged delegates, equals 2,087 pledged delegates remaining to be allocated.

2,026 pledged delegates for a majority, minus Hillary's 1,139 pledged delegates, equals 887 pledged delegates that she needs for a majority.

887 delegates needed, divided by 2,087 delegates remaining, equals 0.425, or 42.5%.

Is that right?

One more comment. You wouldn't know it, but Bernie actually pulled off a great victory yesterday: 21 pledged delegates from Illinois are still unallocated, but if Bernie gains just five more, as seems likely given the close contest, then for the first time in this primary he will have beaten his own target in a state that demographically favors Hillary.

Too little too late, I believe, but I'm sure it will give hope to the dwindling number of Bernie supporters who think he can still win.



How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. The pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Mrs. Chichiri's Coin-Flipped NCAA Predictions
Colorado over Connecticut, California over Hawaii, Green Bay over Texas A&M, Providence over USC, Syracuse over Dayton.
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