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Chichiri
Chichiri's Journal
Chichiri's Journal
March 21, 2016
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,614, Sanders 856 (Clinton +758).
Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,172, Sanders 846 (Clinton +326).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,172/1,050 (+122), Sanders 846/968 (-122).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.0% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 15 (538): Clinton 397, Sanders 294 (Clinton +103).
Versus Targets: Clinton 379/365 (+32), Sanders 294/326 (-32).
Democrats Abroad: Sanders 9, Clinton 4 (Sanders +5). (not yet reflected in totals)
Versus Targets: Sanders 9/6½ (+2½), Clinton 4/6½ (-2½).
Next Primary: March 22
Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.
Comments
Happy Spring!
The results of the Democrats Abroad vote is in, and Bernie picked up a net gain of 5 delegates (results taken from the Democrats Abroad website). This should not be surprising to anyone; for Democrats living abroad, their main link to what's happening back home is usually social media, and Bernie has already demonstrated mastery over social media. I'm a little surprised he didn't win by more.
As it is, this win cancels out about one-quarter of his net loss from Ohio.
Democrats Abroad is one of three contests where some poor delegate would have to be chopped in half in order for both candidates to meet their target. Once the DA results are factored in, Bernie's deficit against target will be down to 119½ delegates.
Bernie supporters are already near-impossible to convince that the time has come for unity. After the news about DA's results -- which can indeed be called a landslide, in the same sense that the waves destroying a little kid's sand castle is a landslide -- I'm sure they will become flat-out impossible.
Folks in Arizona, Idaho and Utah, be sure to vote tomorrow!
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
My brother used to be a banker, but then he lost interest!
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 21, 2016
Delegate CountTotal Delegates: Clinton 1,614, Sanders 856 (Clinton +758).
Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,172, Sanders 846 (Clinton +326).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,172/1,050 (+122), Sanders 846/968 (-122).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.0% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 15 (538): Clinton 397, Sanders 294 (Clinton +103).
Versus Targets: Clinton 379/365 (+32), Sanders 294/326 (-32).
Democrats Abroad: Sanders 9, Clinton 4 (Sanders +5). (not yet reflected in totals)
Versus Targets: Sanders 9/6½ (+2½), Clinton 4/6½ (-2½).
Next Primary: March 22
Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.
Comments
Happy Spring!
The results of the Democrats Abroad vote is in, and Bernie picked up a net gain of 5 delegates (results taken from the Democrats Abroad website). This should not be surprising to anyone; for Democrats living abroad, their main link to what's happening back home is usually social media, and Bernie has already demonstrated mastery over social media. I'm a little surprised he didn't win by more.
As it is, this win cancels out about one-quarter of his net loss from Ohio.
Democrats Abroad is one of three contests where some poor delegate would have to be chopped in half in order for both candidates to meet their target. Once the DA results are factored in, Bernie's deficit against target will be down to 119½ delegates.
Bernie supporters are already near-impossible to convince that the time has come for unity. After the news about DA's results -- which can indeed be called a landslide, in the same sense that the waves destroying a little kid's sand castle is a landslide -- I'm sure they will become flat-out impossible.
Folks in Arizona, Idaho and Utah, be sure to vote tomorrow!
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
My brother used to be a banker, but then he lost interest!
March 18, 2016
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,614, Sanders 856 (Clinton +758).
Pledged Delegates (AP): Clinton 1,147, Sanders 830 (Clinton +317).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,147/1,050 (+97), Sanders 825/968 (-138).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.4% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 15 (AP): Clinton 379, Sanders 276 (Clinton +103); 36 not yet allocated.
Versus Targets: Clinton 379/365 (+14), Sanders 276/326 (-50).
Next Primary: March 22
Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.
Comments
The NCAA thing isn't working out, so it's back to puns for now.
The media outlets have officially called Missouri for Hillary, and Bernie is not requesting a recount (which strikes me as odd if he's fighting for every delegate), so Hillary has officially swept all five of the March 15 states. This was always possible given the polls and projections, but I don't think anyone on the Hillary side wanted to jinx the whole thing by voicing the possibility. I myself was privately predicting three out of five for her!
MattTX, the Bernie supporter at DailyKos who runs his own extremely detailed analysis of the primary, released a new set of benchmarks for a narrow Bernie victory. He released this after Michigan but before March 15. Here's how they stacked up.
Florida: Benchmark 69, Bernie has 65, 16 unallocated.
Illinois: Benchmark 69, Bernie has 70, 13 unallocated.
Missouri: Benchmark 38, Bernie has 34, 3 unallocated.
North Carolina: Benchmark 36, Bernie has 45, 3 unallocated.
Ohio: Benchmark 67, Bernie has 62, 1 unallocated.
Doesn't look bad at all for Bernie, does it? This, however, comes from a dynamic model which assumes that Bernie's national numbers are lousy now, but will improve after March 15. Improve by how much?
See for yourself:
Likely? Plausible? Possible? You decide.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. The pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
I don't like the orators of ancient history; they tend to Babylon!
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 18, 2016
Delegate CountTotal Delegates: Clinton 1,614, Sanders 856 (Clinton +758).
Pledged Delegates (AP): Clinton 1,147, Sanders 830 (Clinton +317).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,147/1,050 (+97), Sanders 825/968 (-138).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.4% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 15 (AP): Clinton 379, Sanders 276 (Clinton +103); 36 not yet allocated.
Versus Targets: Clinton 379/365 (+14), Sanders 276/326 (-50).
Next Primary: March 22
Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.
Comments
The NCAA thing isn't working out, so it's back to puns for now.
The media outlets have officially called Missouri for Hillary, and Bernie is not requesting a recount (which strikes me as odd if he's fighting for every delegate), so Hillary has officially swept all five of the March 15 states. This was always possible given the polls and projections, but I don't think anyone on the Hillary side wanted to jinx the whole thing by voicing the possibility. I myself was privately predicting three out of five for her!
MattTX, the Bernie supporter at DailyKos who runs his own extremely detailed analysis of the primary, released a new set of benchmarks for a narrow Bernie victory. He released this after Michigan but before March 15. Here's how they stacked up.
Florida: Benchmark 69, Bernie has 65, 16 unallocated.
Illinois: Benchmark 69, Bernie has 70, 13 unallocated.
Missouri: Benchmark 38, Bernie has 34, 3 unallocated.
North Carolina: Benchmark 36, Bernie has 45, 3 unallocated.
Ohio: Benchmark 67, Bernie has 62, 1 unallocated.
Doesn't look bad at all for Bernie, does it? This, however, comes from a dynamic model which assumes that Bernie's national numbers are lousy now, but will improve after March 15. Improve by how much?
See for yourself:
Likely? Plausible? Possible? You decide.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. The pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
I don't like the orators of ancient history; they tend to Babylon!
March 17, 2016
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,606, Sanders 851 (Clinton +755).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,139, Sanders 825 (Clinton +314).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,139/1,050 (+89), Sanders 825/968 (-143).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.5% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 15: Clinton 371, Sanders 271 (Clinton +100); 49 not yet allocated.
Versus Targets: Clinton 371/365 (+6), Sanders 271/326 (-55).
Next Primary: March 22
Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.
Comments
For all my professed love of arithmetic, I made a couple of BIG errors in yesterday's SOTP. I'm not sure how or why, but I transposed Bernie's total delegate count (including superdelegates) into his versus targets count, thus giving him about 26 more pledged delegates than he already has. I also miscalculated, and/or misread my own calculation, about Hillary's percentage of pledged delegates remaining.
So please feel free to double check my math here:
4,051 total pledged delegates, minus Hillary's 1,139 pledged delegates, minus Bernie's 825 pledged delegates, equals 2,087 pledged delegates remaining to be allocated.
2,026 pledged delegates for a majority, minus Hillary's 1,139 pledged delegates, equals 887 pledged delegates that she needs for a majority.
887 delegates needed, divided by 2,087 delegates remaining, equals 0.425, or 42.5%.
Is that right?
One more comment. You wouldn't know it, but Bernie actually pulled off a great victory yesterday: 21 pledged delegates from Illinois are still unallocated, but if Bernie gains just five more, as seems likely given the close contest, then for the first time in this primary he will have beaten his own target in a state that demographically favors Hillary.
Too little too late, I believe, but I'm sure it will give hope to the dwindling number of Bernie supporters who think he can still win.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. The pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Mrs. Chichiri's Coin-Flipped NCAA Predictions
Colorado over Connecticut, California over Hawaii, Green Bay over Texas A&M, Providence over USC, Syracuse over Dayton.
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 17, 2016
Delegate CountTotal Delegates: Clinton 1,606, Sanders 851 (Clinton +755).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,139, Sanders 825 (Clinton +314).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,139/1,050 (+89), Sanders 825/968 (-143).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.5% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 15: Clinton 371, Sanders 271 (Clinton +100); 49 not yet allocated.
Versus Targets: Clinton 371/365 (+6), Sanders 271/326 (-55).
Next Primary: March 22
Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.
Comments
For all my professed love of arithmetic, I made a couple of BIG errors in yesterday's SOTP. I'm not sure how or why, but I transposed Bernie's total delegate count (including superdelegates) into his versus targets count, thus giving him about 26 more pledged delegates than he already has. I also miscalculated, and/or misread my own calculation, about Hillary's percentage of pledged delegates remaining.
So please feel free to double check my math here:
4,051 total pledged delegates, minus Hillary's 1,139 pledged delegates, minus Bernie's 825 pledged delegates, equals 2,087 pledged delegates remaining to be allocated.
2,026 pledged delegates for a majority, minus Hillary's 1,139 pledged delegates, equals 887 pledged delegates that she needs for a majority.
887 delegates needed, divided by 2,087 delegates remaining, equals 0.425, or 42.5%.
Is that right?
One more comment. You wouldn't know it, but Bernie actually pulled off a great victory yesterday: 21 pledged delegates from Illinois are still unallocated, but if Bernie gains just five more, as seems likely given the close contest, then for the first time in this primary he will have beaten his own target in a state that demographically favors Hillary.
Too little too late, I believe, but I'm sure it will give hope to the dwindling number of Bernie supporters who think he can still win.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. The pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Mrs. Chichiri's Coin-Flipped NCAA Predictions
Colorado over Connecticut, California over Hawaii, Green Bay over Texas A&M, Providence over USC, Syracuse over Dayton.
March 16, 2016
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,599, Sanders 844 (Clinton +755).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,132, Sanders 818 (Clinton +314).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,132/1,050 (+82), Sanders 844/968 (-124).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.9% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 15: Clinton 364, Sanders 264 (Clinton +100); 63 not yet allocated.
Versus Targets: Clinton 364/365 (-1), Sanders 264/326 (-62).
Next Primary: March 22
Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.
Comments
Wow.
While Hillary supporters were busy bewaring the Ides of March, the voters of yesterday's five states were quietly setting up a (probable) clean sweep that was nearly as unexpected as Michigan, and infinitely more welcome. Hillary won Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Illinois -- the last two in particular were up in the air, and thus major victories for Hillary -- while the fifth, Missouri, has not been called because the difference is less than half a percentage point, but that difference favors Hillary.
The counts are messy, and likely to remain so for a while, and FiveThirtyEight is not doing the best possible job of staying on top of things. From here on, therefore, I'm going to use the New York Times' pledged delegate counts. Since they haven't allocated every single delegate from every single state, this will throw a very small wrench into the numbers given here so far -- but I believe there will be much less chance of subtracting allocated delegates, so the numbers on both sides should only go up. This will give us a surer (if possibly later) knowledge of when the nomination is clinched.
The primary will last into May or June, but it is now exceedingly likely that Hillary will win the nomination. Most media outlets are already treating her as the presumptive nominee, without actually projecting her win, and Democratic sites such as DailyKos are switching over to general election mode. A staggering amount of humble pie will be consumed if, by some miracle, Bernie ends up winning -- but the reward, getting a couple months' headstart on the general election, is worth the risk.
As for me, I'll be continuing these posts until the clinch. I like numbers.
Since the Iditarod has been won, and since my supply of puns remains finite, I'm going to fill the bottom section with NCAA predictions -- but not the kind of predictions you might expect. My wife received a March Madness bracket at work, and she does not care one whit for basketball, so she filled the entire thing out by flipping a coin. The result is some, ah, interesting predictions . . .
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. The pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Mrs. Chichiri's Coin-Flipped NCAA Predictions
Buffalo over Miami, Hampton over Virginia, Stony Brook over Kentucky, Austin Peay over Kansas, Syracuse over Dayton.
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 16, 2016
Delegate CountTotal Delegates: Clinton 1,599, Sanders 844 (Clinton +755).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,132, Sanders 818 (Clinton +314).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,132/1,050 (+82), Sanders 844/968 (-124).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.9% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 15: Clinton 364, Sanders 264 (Clinton +100); 63 not yet allocated.
Versus Targets: Clinton 364/365 (-1), Sanders 264/326 (-62).
Next Primary: March 22
Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.
Comments
Wow.
While Hillary supporters were busy bewaring the Ides of March, the voters of yesterday's five states were quietly setting up a (probable) clean sweep that was nearly as unexpected as Michigan, and infinitely more welcome. Hillary won Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Illinois -- the last two in particular were up in the air, and thus major victories for Hillary -- while the fifth, Missouri, has not been called because the difference is less than half a percentage point, but that difference favors Hillary.
The counts are messy, and likely to remain so for a while, and FiveThirtyEight is not doing the best possible job of staying on top of things. From here on, therefore, I'm going to use the New York Times' pledged delegate counts. Since they haven't allocated every single delegate from every single state, this will throw a very small wrench into the numbers given here so far -- but I believe there will be much less chance of subtracting allocated delegates, so the numbers on both sides should only go up. This will give us a surer (if possibly later) knowledge of when the nomination is clinched.
The primary will last into May or June, but it is now exceedingly likely that Hillary will win the nomination. Most media outlets are already treating her as the presumptive nominee, without actually projecting her win, and Democratic sites such as DailyKos are switching over to general election mode. A staggering amount of humble pie will be consumed if, by some miracle, Bernie ends up winning -- but the reward, getting a couple months' headstart on the general election, is worth the risk.
As for me, I'll be continuing these posts until the clinch. I like numbers.
Since the Iditarod has been won, and since my supply of puns remains finite, I'm going to fill the bottom section with NCAA predictions -- but not the kind of predictions you might expect. My wife received a March Madness bracket at work, and she does not care one whit for basketball, so she filled the entire thing out by flipping a coin. The result is some, ah, interesting predictions . . .
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. The pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Mrs. Chichiri's Coin-Flipped NCAA Predictions
Buffalo over Miami, Hampton over Virginia, Stony Brook over Kentucky, Austin Peay over Kansas, Syracuse over Dayton.
March 14, 2016
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,231, Sanders 576 (Clinton +655).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 775, Sanders 552 (Clinton +221).
Versus Targets: Clinton 775/685 (+90), Sanders 552/642 (-90).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 45.9% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 8 (MI, MS): Clinton 95, Sanders 71 (Clinton +24).
Versus Targets: Clinton 95/86 (+9), Sanders 71/80 (-9).
March 12 (MP): Clinton 4, Sanders 2 (Clinton +2).
Versus Targets: Clinton 4/3 (+1), Sanders 2/3 (+1).
Next Primary: March 15
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: 691 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 365, Sanders 326.
Comments
A good number of post-Michigan polls for tomorrow's states are now out, and as expected, they show the races in Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri to be a lot closer than we'd thought. Hillary is still on track for large wins in Florida and North Carolina.
Presumably they are showing different results because they're using different models in light of Michigan. Unfortunately, we won't know until Wednesday whether these models are accurate, or an overreaction to the upset in Michigan. I think the former is more likely.
Can Bernie win? Mathematically, the answer is yes. But, an interesting article at Vox laid out his path to victory, and to say it's a hard one is an understatement.
He has to win all of the six largest states remaining (Ohio, Illinois, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, California). He can't pull a "virtual tie" as he did in Michigan; he has to win them. Any state he doesn't win, he has to make up the difference elsewhere (and he'll probably have a respectable amount of catching up to do from Florida alone). Of the three "big" states that vote after tomorrow, none are caucuses; two are closed primaries, and California is a "semi-closed" primary with a large Hispanic population.
He also has to win the whiter states (Oregon, Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, etc.) by landslides, something like 60% or better, and at least pull even with Hillary in the remaining states. Again, anywhere he fails to do this, he has to make up the difference elsewhere.
After tomorrow, we should know whether this scenario is flatly impossible or merely unlikely. Remember to do all you can to get out the vote!
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).
The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics.
Iditarod Update
Dallas Seavey out of Elim at 04:11, about to enter White Mountain. Brent Sass out of Elim at 04:37, Mitch Seavey at 04:40, Aliy Zirkle at 09:24. We'll probably have a winner this time tomorrow.
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 14, 2016
Delegate CountTotal Delegates: Clinton 1,231, Sanders 576 (Clinton +655).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 775, Sanders 552 (Clinton +221).
Versus Targets: Clinton 775/685 (+90), Sanders 552/642 (-90).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 45.9% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 8 (MI, MS): Clinton 95, Sanders 71 (Clinton +24).
Versus Targets: Clinton 95/86 (+9), Sanders 71/80 (-9).
March 12 (MP): Clinton 4, Sanders 2 (Clinton +2).
Versus Targets: Clinton 4/3 (+1), Sanders 2/3 (+1).
Next Primary: March 15
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: 691 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 365, Sanders 326.
Comments
A good number of post-Michigan polls for tomorrow's states are now out, and as expected, they show the races in Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri to be a lot closer than we'd thought. Hillary is still on track for large wins in Florida and North Carolina.
Presumably they are showing different results because they're using different models in light of Michigan. Unfortunately, we won't know until Wednesday whether these models are accurate, or an overreaction to the upset in Michigan. I think the former is more likely.
Can Bernie win? Mathematically, the answer is yes. But, an interesting article at Vox laid out his path to victory, and to say it's a hard one is an understatement.
He has to win all of the six largest states remaining (Ohio, Illinois, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, California). He can't pull a "virtual tie" as he did in Michigan; he has to win them. Any state he doesn't win, he has to make up the difference elsewhere (and he'll probably have a respectable amount of catching up to do from Florida alone). Of the three "big" states that vote after tomorrow, none are caucuses; two are closed primaries, and California is a "semi-closed" primary with a large Hispanic population.
He also has to win the whiter states (Oregon, Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, etc.) by landslides, something like 60% or better, and at least pull even with Hillary in the remaining states. Again, anywhere he fails to do this, he has to make up the difference elsewhere.
After tomorrow, we should know whether this scenario is flatly impossible or merely unlikely. Remember to do all you can to get out the vote!
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).
The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics.
Iditarod Update
Dallas Seavey out of Elim at 04:11, about to enter White Mountain. Brent Sass out of Elim at 04:37, Mitch Seavey at 04:40, Aliy Zirkle at 09:24. We'll probably have a winner this time tomorrow.
March 13, 2016
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,231, Sanders 576 (Clinton +655).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 776, Sanders 551 (Clinton +225).
Versus Targets: Clinton 776/685 (+91), Sanders 551/642 (-91).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 45.9% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 8 (MI, MS): Clinton 95, Sanders 71 (Clinton +24).
Versus Targets: Clinton 95/86 (+9), Sanders 71/80 (-9).
March 12 (MP): Clinton 4, Sanders 2 (Clinton +2).
Versus Targets: Clinton 4/3 (+1), Sanders 2/3 (+1).
Next Primary: March 15
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: 691 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 365, Sanders 326.
Comments
With twenty-one states and two territories now having voted, the various organizations' reports of the pledged delegate counts have begin to diverge, because the individual state counts are estimates. Hillary, for example, has 148 delegates from Texas according to FiveThirtyEight, but 147 according to the New York Times. The final delegate count will become more accurate after the county conventions are held this coming Saturday, and should be finalized at the state convention on June 16-18.
The Times' pledged delegate count is Hillary 766, Bernie 551. The count for Bernie is the same, while the count for Hillary is ten delegates fewer than FiveThirtyEight's. Obviously the Times has not allocated ten delegates; my best guess is that certain district-level delegate allocations are, by their reckoning, too close to call (but possibly they simply haven't updated certain states since shortly after their primary).
I am continuing to use FiveThirtyEight's count, not because it's biased for Hillary, but simply to maintain consistency with their targets. I am virtually certain that, by the time all the states and territories have voted, the differences in delegate counts will not be large enough to make a difference to the outcome.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).
The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics.
Iditarod Update
Mitch Seavey out of Unalakleet at 05:14, Dallas Seavey 05:25, Brent Sass at 05:29, Aliy Zirkle at 06:42. Seaveys about to enter Shaktoolik.
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 13, 2016
Delegate CountTotal Delegates: Clinton 1,231, Sanders 576 (Clinton +655).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 776, Sanders 551 (Clinton +225).
Versus Targets: Clinton 776/685 (+91), Sanders 551/642 (-91).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 45.9% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 8 (MI, MS): Clinton 95, Sanders 71 (Clinton +24).
Versus Targets: Clinton 95/86 (+9), Sanders 71/80 (-9).
March 12 (MP): Clinton 4, Sanders 2 (Clinton +2).
Versus Targets: Clinton 4/3 (+1), Sanders 2/3 (+1).
Next Primary: March 15
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: 691 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 365, Sanders 326.
Comments
With twenty-one states and two territories now having voted, the various organizations' reports of the pledged delegate counts have begin to diverge, because the individual state counts are estimates. Hillary, for example, has 148 delegates from Texas according to FiveThirtyEight, but 147 according to the New York Times. The final delegate count will become more accurate after the county conventions are held this coming Saturday, and should be finalized at the state convention on June 16-18.
The Times' pledged delegate count is Hillary 766, Bernie 551. The count for Bernie is the same, while the count for Hillary is ten delegates fewer than FiveThirtyEight's. Obviously the Times has not allocated ten delegates; my best guess is that certain district-level delegate allocations are, by their reckoning, too close to call (but possibly they simply haven't updated certain states since shortly after their primary).
I am continuing to use FiveThirtyEight's count, not because it's biased for Hillary, but simply to maintain consistency with their targets. I am virtually certain that, by the time all the states and territories have voted, the differences in delegate counts will not be large enough to make a difference to the outcome.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).
The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics.
Iditarod Update
Mitch Seavey out of Unalakleet at 05:14, Dallas Seavey 05:25, Brent Sass at 05:29, Aliy Zirkle at 06:42. Seaveys about to enter Shaktoolik.
March 12, 2016
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,223, Sanders 574 (Clinton +649).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 776, Sanders 551 (Clinton +223).
Versus Targets: Clinton 776/685 (+91), Sanders 551/642 (-91).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 45.9% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 8 (MI, MS): Clinton 95, Sanders 71 (Clinton +24).
Versus Targets: Clinton 95/86 (+9), Sanders 71/80 (-9).
March 12 (MP): Clinton 4, Sanders 2 (Clinton +2).
Versus Targets: Clinton 4/3 (+1), Sanders 2/3 (+1).
Next Primary: March 15
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: 691 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 365, Sanders 326.
Comments
Did you know that the two-letter code for the Northern Marianas is MP? I didn't either. I assume the M stands for Marianas, and the P is . . . what? Province? Protectorate? Political zone? The territory was infamous for years due to worker abuse problems and no minimum wage to speak of -- Tom DeLay called it a "petri dish of capitalism" -- but since Democrats took Congress in 2006, conditions have improved. Anyway, Bernie couldn't really afford to fall even a single delegate behind target from this tiny place, but that's exactly what he did, and Hillary gained 2 more pledged delegates on him.
I'm trying to avoid speculation about what will happen on Tuesday. I feel reasonably safe in saying that Hillary will win Florida and North Carolina, but that's as far as I'll go. Everyone is still reeling from Michigan. So Hillary supporters, be sure to make calls, canvas, donate, do whatever you can between now and Tuesday. Let's take those rust belt states!
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).
The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics.
Iditarod Update
Brent Sass out of Kaltag at 08:20, Mich Seavey in at 07:41 (now on 8-hr layover), Aliy Zirkle out of Nulato at 06:16. Aliy Zirkle and Jeff King were attacked by an unknown assailant with a snow machine outside of Nulato; they killed one of Jeff's dogs and injured several others. RIP Nash.
Reporters are that the assailant has been located.
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 12, 2016
Delegate CountTotal Delegates: Clinton 1,223, Sanders 574 (Clinton +649).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 776, Sanders 551 (Clinton +223).
Versus Targets: Clinton 776/685 (+91), Sanders 551/642 (-91).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 45.9% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 8 (MI, MS): Clinton 95, Sanders 71 (Clinton +24).
Versus Targets: Clinton 95/86 (+9), Sanders 71/80 (-9).
March 12 (MP): Clinton 4, Sanders 2 (Clinton +2).
Versus Targets: Clinton 4/3 (+1), Sanders 2/3 (+1).
Next Primary: March 15
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: 691 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 365, Sanders 326.
Comments
Did you know that the two-letter code for the Northern Marianas is MP? I didn't either. I assume the M stands for Marianas, and the P is . . . what? Province? Protectorate? Political zone? The territory was infamous for years due to worker abuse problems and no minimum wage to speak of -- Tom DeLay called it a "petri dish of capitalism" -- but since Democrats took Congress in 2006, conditions have improved. Anyway, Bernie couldn't really afford to fall even a single delegate behind target from this tiny place, but that's exactly what he did, and Hillary gained 2 more pledged delegates on him.
I'm trying to avoid speculation about what will happen on Tuesday. I feel reasonably safe in saying that Hillary will win Florida and North Carolina, but that's as far as I'll go. Everyone is still reeling from Michigan. So Hillary supporters, be sure to make calls, canvas, donate, do whatever you can between now and Tuesday. Let's take those rust belt states!
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).
The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics.
Iditarod Update
Brent Sass out of Kaltag at 08:20, Mich Seavey in at 07:41 (now on 8-hr layover), Aliy Zirkle out of Nulato at 06:16. Aliy Zirkle and Jeff King were attacked by an unknown assailant with a snow machine outside of Nulato; they killed one of Jeff's dogs and injured several others. RIP Nash.
Reporters are that the assailant has been located.
March 11, 2016
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,223, Sanders 574 (Clinton +649).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 772, Sanders 549 (Clinton +223).
Versus Targets: Clinton 772/682 (+90), Sanders 549/639 (-90).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 45.9% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 8 (MI, MS): Clinton 95, Sanders 71 (Clinton +24).
Versus Targets: Clinton 95/86 (+9), Sanders 71/80 (-9).
Next Primary: March 15
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: 691 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 365, Sanders 326.
Northern Marianas votes on March 12: 6 delegates.
Comments
This is Jadzia. She is five years old today.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).
The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics.
Iditarod Update
Brent Sass out of Ruby at 01:47, Aliy Zirkle at 04:32; Jeff King in at 13:02 yesterday (now on 24-hour layover).
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 11, 2016
Delegate CountTotal Delegates: Clinton 1,223, Sanders 574 (Clinton +649).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 772, Sanders 549 (Clinton +223).
Versus Targets: Clinton 772/682 (+90), Sanders 549/639 (-90).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 45.9% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 8 (MI, MS): Clinton 95, Sanders 71 (Clinton +24).
Versus Targets: Clinton 95/86 (+9), Sanders 71/80 (-9).
Next Primary: March 15
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: 691 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 365, Sanders 326.
Northern Marianas votes on March 12: 6 delegates.
Comments
This is Jadzia. She is five years old today.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).
The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics.
Iditarod Update
Brent Sass out of Ruby at 01:47, Aliy Zirkle at 04:32; Jeff King in at 13:02 yesterday (now on 24-hour layover).
March 11, 2016
Is Hillary still inevitable?
First of all, forget the polls. Completely ignore the polls, the projections, the predictions, the pundits, the partisans, in fact ignore all the P's. I'm not even going to use the letter P from here on out. Just ignore it.
Look at the margins and the demos.
FiveThirtyEight, working with David Wasserman of the Cook organization, assigned two target numbers to each state which reflect the demo factors in each state, and assuming the national average was 50-50. For instance, if Hillary has 50% of the vote nationwide, we would not think her to get 50% of the vote in South Carolina -- it's largely black, largely rural, and largely conservative. Similarly, a 50% national vote for Bernie would not translate to a 50% statewide vote in Vermont, for obvious reasons.
Here are a list of the states that have voted so far, along with how far off the target each state has been, and to whose advantage that offset was.
Iowa: 5 off, Hillary.
NH: Dead on.
Nevada: 3 off, Hillary.
South Carolina: 7 off, Hillary.
Alabama: 9 off, Hillary.
American Samoa: 1 off, Hillary.
Arkansas: 4 off, Hillary.
Colorado: 2 off, Bernie.
Georgia: 9 off, Hillary.
Massachusetts: 5 off, Hillary.
Minnesota: 1 off, Hillary.
Oklahoma: 1 off, Bernie.
Tennessee: 11 off, Hillary.
Texas: 22 off, Hillary.
Vermont: 2 off, Bernie.
Virginia: 10 off, Hillary.
Kansas: 4 off, Bernie.
Louisiana: 4 off, Hillary.
Nebraska: Dead on.
Maine: 1 off, Bernie.
Michigan: Dead on.
MS: 9 off, Hillary.
Hillary has come in ahead of target in 14 contests, Bernie in 5, and three contests were right on target. Do we see any structure here?
There are two could-be reasons for this data. First, the models are wrong. Second, Hillary is decisively winning. Which should we believe?
Let's look more closely the data.
One thing that stands out is Hillary's advantage above target in the true south states. But she has also come in ahead in states like Massachusetts, Minnesota, Iowa, Nevada, et cetera. Bernie, as you might guess, does his best work in white, liberal states like Colorado and Maine.
But there are two other things: First, Bernie has not met or beaten his target in a single state which did not already favor him in the demos; conversely, Hillary has beaten her target in five Bernie-favoring states. Second, Bernie's "wins" have all been by four delegates or less; Hillary regularly falls ahead by high single digits and even double digits. (One double digit state was Tennessee, a state which slightly favored Bernie.) Most of these big wins were in the south, where she was highly favored anyway. However, there is no similar thing on Bernie's side. Iowa and Massachusetts favored Bernie by six and nine delegates. Bernie lost them both.
So the model is balanced, in that all the targets sum to the same figure of 2,026. The margins in the targets also match what we'd think to see. We should see Hillary advantaged in minority-heavy, less liberal states, Bernie in white-heavy, more liberal states. We do see that. So there's not much reason to think that the model is wrong.
Conversely, the results and margins are more or less what we'd think to see if Hillary was winning the race nationwide: Bernie winning (in the sense of beating his target rather than absolute numbers) a few states by small margins, Hillary winning more states by larger margins. Moreover, there is outside evidence for this in the form of national surveys. Right now, the average is Clinton 51.9, Sanders 37.6. If undecideds are distributed evenly, Hillary would have about 57.2% of the vote -- and right now, she has 58.4% of all awarded delegates.
So Hillary is winning by any and all objective metrics. But is that lead insurmountable?
Most states after March 15 favor Bernie, albeit by small margins. Future states which Bernie has a five-or-more-delegate advantage are Arizona, Idaho, Utah, Washington*, Wisconsin*, Indiana, West Virginia, Oregon*, and Montana. Only states with asterisks give him double-digit advantages. Thus far, Bernie's margin of victory in states which he's "won" is 2 delegates. If we increase that to 10 delegates in the asterisked states above, and maintain the average in all other states, Bernie regains 42 delegates on his 90-delegate deficit. If we double the above numbers, he regains 84 delegates on his 90-delegate deficit. This does not account for any ground that Hillary gains on him.
So the answer is, if we continue to work our hearts out to get Hillary into office, then yes, she is inevitable. If we slack off, then it's a different story. But we're not going to do that, are we?
March 10, 2016
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,223, Sanders 574 (Clinton +649).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 772, Sanders 549 (Clinton +223).
Versus Targets: Clinton 772/682 (+90), Sanders 549/639 (-90).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 45.9% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 8 (MI, MS): Clinton 95, Sanders 71 (Clinton +24).
Versus Targets: Clinton 95/86 (+9), Sanders 71/80 (-9).
Next Primary: March 15
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: 691 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 365, Sanders 326.
Northern Marianas votes on March 12: 6 delegates.
Comments
The plot slightly thickens! A recalculation in Michigan changed the delegate count to Bernie 67, Hillary 63. These are exactly their targets. I would not have expected to see that in a big state like Michigan, but there it is. We have a tie versus targets. (This is actually the third state that has produced a tie versus targets; the folks who put the demographic model together knew what they were doing!)
The consensus among the polling community seems to be that the Michigan snafu was the result of many different factors. Most of them probably have a single source of error: Pollsters rely partly on the results of past elections to serve as a model for the present one, and in the 2008 primary, for reasons I won't go into here (let's just say it's Howard Dean's fault), Barack Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan. So it's not a reliable model for anything.
This makes it more likely that Michigan was a one-off fluke, and that the polling in other states remains more or less valid. March 15 will give us an idea -- Ohio and Illinois are Midwestern states with open primaries, like Michigan.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).
The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics.
Iditarod Update
Jeff King out of Cripple at 03:05; Dallas Seavey in at 15:51 yesterday, Noah Burmeister at 18:59 (most mushers are declaring their mandatory 24-hour rest stops near here).
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 10, 2016
Delegate CountTotal Delegates: Clinton 1,223, Sanders 574 (Clinton +649).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 772, Sanders 549 (Clinton +223).
Versus Targets: Clinton 772/682 (+90), Sanders 549/639 (-90).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 45.9% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 8 (MI, MS): Clinton 95, Sanders 71 (Clinton +24).
Versus Targets: Clinton 95/86 (+9), Sanders 71/80 (-9).
Next Primary: March 15
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: 691 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 365, Sanders 326.
Northern Marianas votes on March 12: 6 delegates.
Comments
The plot slightly thickens! A recalculation in Michigan changed the delegate count to Bernie 67, Hillary 63. These are exactly their targets. I would not have expected to see that in a big state like Michigan, but there it is. We have a tie versus targets. (This is actually the third state that has produced a tie versus targets; the folks who put the demographic model together knew what they were doing!)
The consensus among the polling community seems to be that the Michigan snafu was the result of many different factors. Most of them probably have a single source of error: Pollsters rely partly on the results of past elections to serve as a model for the present one, and in the 2008 primary, for reasons I won't go into here (let's just say it's Howard Dean's fault), Barack Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan. So it's not a reliable model for anything.
This makes it more likely that Michigan was a one-off fluke, and that the polling in other states remains more or less valid. March 15 will give us an idea -- Ohio and Illinois are Midwestern states with open primaries, like Michigan.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).
The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics.
Iditarod Update
Jeff King out of Cripple at 03:05; Dallas Seavey in at 15:51 yesterday, Noah Burmeister at 18:59 (most mushers are declaring their mandatory 24-hour rest stops near here).
Profile Information
Member since: Sat Aug 21, 2004, 06:17 PMNumber of posts: 4,667
