Chichiri
Chichiri's JournalSTATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 27, 2016
Posting this early because it's after midnight, and because insomnia. Don't forget to vote in the poll!
Reprinted from http://stateoftheprimary.blogspot.com with permission of the author (me).
[font color="blue"]Delegate Count
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 505, Sanders 71 (Clinton +433)
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 52, Sanders 51 (Clinton +1).
Latest Results
Nevada Caucuses: Clinton 20, Sanders 15 (Clinton +5).
Vote Spread: Clinton 52.6, Sanders 47.3 (Clinton +5).
Versus Median Projection (538): Clinton +5.
Next Primary
South Carolina, February 27 (53 pledged delegates).
Median projection (538): Clinton +20.
[font color="darkblue"]Latest Polls
Massachusetts (WBUR/MassINC): Clinton 49, Sanders 44 (Clinton +5).
Florida (PPP): Clinton 57, Sanders 32 (Clinton +25).
Florida (Quinnipiac): Clinton 59, Sanders 33 (Clinton +26).
Virginia (Roanoke College): Clinton 50, Sanders 33 (Clinton +17).
South Carolina (Emerson): Clinton 60, Sanders 37 (Clinton +23).
Georgia (WSB-TV/Landmark): Clinton 68, Sanders 22 (Clinton +46).
Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)
South Carolina: Clinton 67.0, Sanders 28.7.
Arkansas: Clinton 65.0, Sanders 31.6.
Georgia: Clinton 72.8, Sanders 23.7.
Massachusetts: Clinton 52.2, Sanders 44.8.
Oklahoma: Clinton 52.7, Sanders 43.7 .
Tennessee: Clinton 65.7, Sanders 31.2.
Texas: Clinton 66.6, Sanders 30.3.
Vermont: Sanders 86.1, Clinton 11.6.
Virginia: Clinton 63.5, Sanders 33.1.
Michigan: Clinton 61.5, Sanders 35.6.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.7, Sanders 35.8.
Ohio: Clinton 61.0, Sanders 36.8.
Florida: Clinton 67.3, Sanders 30.0.
Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 474, Sanders 3.
[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 82, Cruz 17, Rubio 16.
538 Virginia Projection: Trump 40, Rubio 30, Cruz 15.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 150, Cruz 34, Kasich 31.
[font color="black"]Comments
Happy South Carolina Day! 53 pledged delegates will be awarded today. Polls close at 7:00 PM EST. We can expect the major networks to call the state for Hillary at 7:00:02 or thereabouts -- but of course, that's not the question.
The question is, how much will she win by? 538's median projection, which Bernie needs to beat to start catching up to Hillary, is Hillary +20. That is, if Bernie comes within 20 points of Hillary, he should get the delegates he needs. The Cook Political Report scorecard, which takes currently declared superdelegates into account and therefore is not quite as accurate (because the superdelegates will most likely end up supporting whoever wins the most pledged delegates) puts the delegate target at Hillary 27, Bernie 26.
If the current 538 projection holds, Hillary will earn 36 delegates from South Carolina, leaving 17 for Bernie. This will give Hillary a total of 88 pledged delegates, and Bernie a total of 68.
To be honest, that's not a great margin for either candidate's supporters. Bernie fans would obviously like for him to have more delegates, and Hillary fans want the primary to be over with already so that she can turn the full force of her rhetoric toward the Republicans. If the projections for Super Tuesday hold, however, and if Colorado and Minnesota (still both living in a black box, which is hell for numbers wonks like me!) don't swing dramatically in Bernie's favor, the margin will be much larger on Wednesday morning.
How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).
The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the numbers indicate the population mean of the candidates' vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's a reasonable chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state. The median projection for a state is the expected outcome in that state if the national vote is tied 50-50; whichever candidate exceeds the median projection draws closer to winning the nomination; the other drops farther behind.
[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
Did you hear about the Norwegian bird analyzer? It Scandinavian!
[font color="green"]What's your prediction for today? Vote below![font color="black"]
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 26, 2016
Taken from http://stateoftheprimary.blogspot.com/ with permission of the author (me).
[font color="blue"]Delegate Count
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 505, Sanders 71 (Clinton +433)
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 52, Sanders 51 (Clinton +1).
Latest Results
Nevada Caucuses: Clinton 20, Sanders 15 (Clinton +5).
Vote Spread: Clinton 52.6, Sanders 47.3 (Clinton +5).
Versus Median Projection (538): Clinton +5.
Next Primary
South Carolina, February 27 (53 pledged delegates).
Median projection (538): Clinton +20.
[font color="darkblue"]Latest Polls
Texas (Crosswind Media): Clinton 66, Sanders 26 (Clinton +40).
Texas (SurveyUSA): Clinton 61, Sanders 32 (Clinton +29).
Pennsylvania (Franklin & Marshall): Clinton 48, Sanders 27 (Clinton +21).
Texas (Monmouth): Clinton 64, Sanders 30 (Clinton +34).
South Carolina (Clemson University): Clinton 64, Sanders 14 (Clinton +50).
Wisconsin (Marquette): Sanders 44, Clinton 43 (Sanders +1).
Massachusetts (WBUR/MassINC): Clinton 49, Sanders 44 (Clinton +5).
Florida (PPP): Clinton 57, Sanders 32 (Clinton +25).
Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)
South Carolina: Clinton 67.2, Sanders 28.5.
Arkansas: Clinton 65.0, Sanders 31.6.
Georgia: Clinton 72.9, Sanders 23.6.
Massachusetts: Clinton 49.7, Sanders 47.1.
Oklahoma: Clinton 52.8, Sanders 43.7 .
Tennessee: Clinton 65.7, Sanders 31.2.
Texas: Clinton 66.7, Sanders 30.3.
Vermont: Sanders 86.0, Clinton 11.7.
Virginia: Clinton 64.4, Sanders 32.6.
Michigan: Clinton 61.6, Sanders 35.6.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.8, Sanders 35.9.
Ohio: Clinton 61.0, Sanders 36.7.
Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 473, Sanders 3.
[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 82, Cruz 17, Rubio 16.
538 Georgia Projection: Cruz 36, Trump 26, Rubio 23.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 150, Cruz 34, Kasich 31.
[font color="black"]Comments
Four days to Super Tuesday -- and South Carolina is tomorrow! Hillary has, and has had for a while, a greater than 99% chance to win South Carolina. It won't even be very exciting. The only question to be answered is, how many delegates will each candidate take? Based on the vote spread projection, my educated guess is that Hillary will take 34 delegates, and Bernie 19.
Wait a second . . . Bernie has only 14 points in South Carolina? I am very dubious. My guess is that that Clemson poll is an outlier. I'm sticking with 34 and 19.
Nate Silver has updated his median projections for each state; these are the vote spreads which Bernie has to beat in order to get the nomination. He now has lower expectations in South Carolina, but higher expectations pretty much everywhere else, probably given the expected results in South Carolina tomorrow.
There is one piece of much-needed good news for the Bernie campaign: a new poll has him up by 1 in Wisconsin.
That new Florida poll, however, is very bad news -- I don't know any road to a Bernie nomination that doesn't go through Florida. (If you do, please comment and let me know.)
How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).
The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the numbers indicate the population mean of the candidates' vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's a reasonable chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state. The median projection for a state is the expected outcome in that state if the national vote is tied 50-50; whichever candidate exceeds the median projection draws closer to winning the nomination; the other drops farther behind.
[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
When the Minnesota winter ends, the trees are always relieved!
Nate Silver has laid it all out.
Nate has laid out a side-by-side comparison between the vote spread Bernie needs to hit in order to tie for the nomination, and the spread he's currently polling at. What does it look like? Well, here are a few examples . . .
Vermont: Bernie needs +83, has +76 (for a deficit of -7).
SC: Bernie needs -20, has -25 (-5).
Massachusetts: Bernie needs +11, has +3 (-8).
Tennessee: Bernie needs +2, has -25 (-27).
Michigan: Bernie needs +4, has -16 (-20).
Ohio: Bernie needs +1, has -13 (-14).
And so on. I'll let you take a look at the remaining Super Tuesday states for yourselves.
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 24, 2016
http://stateoftheprimary.blogspot.comFrom now on, all installments of SotP will be posted on this site I just set up. In the event that I disappear from DU, you can always find the daily installment on that site. Please feel free to link to it here on DU.
If I do disappear, I want to say that it's been a pleasure and a privilege being able to do this work for you guys.
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 23, 2016 (Afternoon Edition)
[font color="blue"]Delegate Count
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 503, Sanders 70 (Clinton +433)
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 52, Sanders 51 (Clinton +1).
Latest Results
Nevada Caucuses: Clinton 20, Sanders 15 (Clinton +5).
Vote Spread: Clinton 52.6, Sanders 47.3 (Clinton +5).
Versus Median Projection (538): Clinton +2.
Next Primary
South Carolina, February 27 (53 pledged delegates).
Median projection (538): Clinton +11.[/font]
[font color="darkblue"] Latest Polls
Michigan (ARG): Clinton 53, Sanders 40 (Clinton +13).
Massachusetts (Emerson): Sanders 46, Clinton 46 (tie).
North Carolina (Elon University): Clinton 47, Sanders 37 (Clinton +10).
Utah (Dan Jones): Clinton 51, Sanders 44 (Clinton +7).
Georgia (WSB-TV/Landmark): Clinton 72, Sanders 20 (Clinton +52).
Vermont (Castleton U): Sanders 83, Clinton 9 (Sanders +74).
North Carolina (SurveyUSA): Clinton 51, Sanders 36 (Clinton +15).
Illinois (The Simon Poll/SIU): Clinton 51, Sanders 32 (Clinton +19).
West Virginia (MetroNews): Sanders 57, Clinton 29 (Sanders +28).
Texas (UT/Texas Tribune): Clinton 54, Sanders 44 (Clinton +10).
Ohio (Quinnipiac): Clinton 55, Sanders 40 (Clinton +15).
Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)
South Carolina: Clinton 65.0, Sanders 31.2.
Arkansas: Clinton 64.7, Sanders 31.8.
Georgia: Clinton 76.9, Sanders 19.8.
Massachusetts: Clinton 49.5, Sanders 47.4.
Oklahoma: Clinton 52.6, Sanders 43.9.
Tennessee: Clinton 65.4, Sanders 31.4.
Texas: Clinton 62.1, Sanders 35.3.
Virginia: Clinton 62.4, Sanders 34.5.
Michigan: Clinton 61.4, Sanders 35.8.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.7, Sanders 35.8.
Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 468, Sanders 3.[/font]
[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 67, Cruz 11, Rubio 10.
538 Nevada Projection: Trump 64, Rubio 25, Cruz 10.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 138, Cruz 24, Kasich 20.[/font]
Comments
I am no longer going to consider the Cook targets in this post. The Cook report takes into account estimated superdelegates when formulating its targets; however, while superdelegate votes do and should count, the Cook report doesn't factor in the likely fact that, if Bernie is obviously going to win the pledged delegates, the superdelegates will change their mind, as they did with Obama eight years ago, to preserve the will of the people.
I would love it if the Cook report released a different version of its scorecard that only accounted for pledged delegates. Until then, however, we have Nate Silver. His median projected votes give the expected vote margin for each state, assuming that the national vote is split 50-50. Under that metric, Bernie came in behind in all three states that have voted so far, for a total of 15 points behind target. This doesn't account for superdelegates at all, and is therefore a more accurate way of predicting who will be the numerical winner.
As expected, the new Texas poll narrowed the projected result in that state by 4 points -- now 62-35 Hillary. This might mean a couple more delegates in the Lone Star State for Bernie, although he's not in any real danger of winning the state.
How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).
The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the numbers indicate the population mean of the candidates' vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's a reasonable chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state. The median projection for a state is the expected outcome in that state if the national vote is tied 50-50; whichever candidate exceeds the median projection draws closer to winning the nomination; the other drops farther behind.
If this post is useful to you, please K&R!
[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
Until the metric system is established, a ruler will always be afoot![/font]
[hr]
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 23, 2016
[font color="blue"]Delegate Count
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 503, Sanders 70 (Clinton +433)
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 52, Sanders 51 (Clinton +1).
Versus Targets (Cook): Clinton +11, Sanders -11
Latest Results
Nevada Caucuses: Clinton 20, Sanders 15 (Clinton +5).
Versus 2/12 Targets: Clinton +4, Sanders -4.
Next Primary
South Carolina, February 27 (53 pledged delegates).
Targets (Cook): Clinton 28, Sanders 25.
Median projection (538): Clinton +11.[/font]
[font color="darkblue"] Latest Polls
North Carolina (SurveyUSA): Clinton 51, Sanders 36 (Clinton +15).
Illinois (The Simon Poll/SIU): Clinton 51, Sanders 32 (Clinton +19).
West Virginia (MetroNews): Sanders 57, Clinton 29 (Sanders +28).
Texas (UT/Texas Tribune): Clinton 54, Sanders 44 (Clinton +10).
Ohio (Quinnipiac): Clinton 55, Sanders 40 (Clinton +15).
Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)
South Carolina: Clinton 65.0, Sanders 31.2.
Arkansas: Clinton 64.7, Sanders 31.8.
Georgia: Clinton 76.9, Sanders 19.8.
Massachusetts: Clinton 49.5, Sanders 47.4.
Oklahoma: Clinton 52.6, Sanders 43.9.
Tennessee: Clinton 65.4, Sanders 31.4.
Texas: Clinton 63.8, Sanders 33.2.
Virginia: Clinton 62.4, Sanders 34.5.
Michigan: Clinton 61.4, Sanders 35.8.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.7, Sanders 35.8.
Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 468, Sanders 3.[/font]
[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 67, Cruz 11, Rubio 10.
538 Nevada Projection: Trump 64, Rubio 25, Cruz 10.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 137, Cruz 22, Kasich 20.[/font]
Comments
One week from Super Tuesday!
That new Texas poll, which shows Hillary ahead only 10 points, is from YouGov, which has a decent-ish reputation, and the methodology behind it looks sound to this layman. Much as I'd like to dispute it, I can't. However, it has not yet been factored into FiveThirtyEight's projection for Texas. (Neither has that West Virginia poll, whose pollster has little, no, or negative reputation.)
If this does cause the numbers in Texas to narrow, and I think it will, this gives some much-needed good news for Bernie fans. They are assuming, based solely on Nevada entrance polls, that Bernie somehow managed to acquire the Latino vote, and can therefore make very large inroads in states like Texas, Florida, and California.
However, looking at objective data, Hillary won the more Latino parts of the state -- most notably Clark County by 10 points, and the at-large caucuses in Las Vegas, which were very heavily Latino. A good article from Vox considers this discrepancy:
The only explanation for the entrance polls would be that Clinton consistently won the parts of Nevada where the most Latinos happen to be — by overwhelmingly winning the non-Latino vote there, while Sanders won the Latino vote.
That is extremely unlikely. It is more likely that Hillary Clinton won the most Latino parts of Nevada because Hillary Clinton won Nevada's Latinos.
The article goes on to explain why entrance and exit polls aren't good for tracking Latino behavior. So if Bernie is counting on Latinos to be his own "firewall," he's going to get -- forgive me, I cannot resist -- berned down to the ground.
So why has the Texas race narrowed? Maybe it's an outlier. Or maybe Bernie has more of a ground game in the Lone Star state than we thought -- which in itself would be great news for him. Either way, though, it's not Latinos. And to date, nobody has shown me a path from Bernie to the nomination that doesn't include Latinos.
Meanwhile, on the evil side, looking at the endorsements it seems clear that the GOP establishment is flocking to Rubio -- if you look at his endorsement score timeline, it now resembles a hockey stick. No surprise there. And more importantly, he's making some real inroads in states like Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. It might just be enough to dump Trump.
How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).
The targets are taken from the Cook Political Report's model, based on superdelegate endorsement and demographic conditions favorable to each candidate, and represent the number of delegates each candidate must win in each state in order to stay on track to tie for the nomination. The targets are current as of February 12. The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the numbers indicate the population mean of the candidates' vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's a reasonable chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state.
If this post is useful to you, please K&R!
[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
Until the metric system is established, a ruler will always be afoot![/font]
[hr]
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 22, 2016
[font color="blue"]Delegate Count
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 502, Sanders 70 (Clinton +432)
Pledged Delegates: Sanders 51, Clinton 51 (tie).
Versus Targets (Cook): Clinton +10, Sanders -11
Latest Results
Nevada Caucuses: Clinton 19, Sanders 15 (Clinton +4); 1 not yet allocated.
Versus 2/12 Targets: Clinton +3, Sanders -4.
Next Primary
South Carolina, February 27 (53 pledged delegates).
Targets (Cook): Clinton 28, Sanders 25.[/font]
[font color="darkblue"] Latest Polls
Michigan (ARG): Clinton 53, Sanders 40 (Clinton +13).
Massachusetts (Emerson): Sanders 46, Clinton 46 (tie).
North Carolina (Elon University): Clinton 47, Sanders 37 (Clinton +10).
Utah (Dan Jones): Clinton 51, Sanders 44 (Clinton +7).
Georgia (WSB-TV/Landmark): Clinton 72, Sanders 20 (Clinton +52).
Vermont (Castleton U): Sanders 83, Clinton 9 (Sanders +74).
North Carolina (SurveyUSA): Clinton 51, Sanders 36 (Clinton +15).
Illinois (The Simon Poll/SIU): Clinton 51, Sanders 32 (Clinton +19).
Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)
South Carolina: Clinton 65.0, Sanders 31.2.
Arkansas: Clinton 64.7, Sanders 31.8.
Georgia: Clinton 76.9, Sanders 19.8.
Massachusetts: Clinton 49.5, Sanders 47.4.
Oklahoma: Clinton 52.6, Sanders 43.9.
Tennessee: Clinton 65.4, Sanders 31.4.
Texas: Clinton 63.8, Sanders 33.2.
Virginia: Clinton 62.4, Sanders 34.5.
Michigan: Clinton 61.4, Sanders 35.8.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.7, Sanders 35.8.
Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 468, Sanders 3.[/font]
[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 67, Cruz 11, Rubio 10.
538 Nevada Projection: Trump 64, Rubio 24, Cruz 11.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 108, Cruz 22, Kasich 20.[/font]
Comments
From now on, in the projections section, instead of probability-to-win I will list the mean of the probability curves representing Bernie and Hillary's respective vote shares. So, for instance, Hillary is projected to win 65% of the vote in South Carolina.
In cases where the 80% confidence intervals of the probability curves overlap, I've listed the state in italics. In other words, if you see a race in italics, there's at least a 10% chance that the candidate who is behind will nonetheless win the state.
(Republican projections will still list the probability of a candidate winning the state, since (a) there are more than two candidates and therefore usually some overlap, (b) some Republican states are winner-take-all, and (c) I can't be bothered to do the little bit of extra work for them.)
We finally have a projection for Massachusetts, and it doesn't look good for Bernie -- he's a couple points behind. He still has a 43% chance of winning the state, and it will help him in the MSM if he does -- they care about victories in states. But according to the Cook report, Bernie needs at least 56 delegates, or about 23 points over Hillary. According to Nate Silver's (somewhat more generous) breakdown, he needs at least 11 points over Hillary. It doesn't look like he's going to get either.
So where does Bernie stand? He's definitely going to win Vermont. He's behind in Massachusetts and Oklahoma, but has a decent chance to catch up and win it. We have no good data for Colorado and Minnesota, but we have to assume he's favored in those states.
So we're looking at between one and five of the 12 Super Tuesday states/territories for Bernie. But how many delegates does that amount to?
First, we'll assume that he'll win all five states mentioned above. Second, we'll assume a 60-40 share in delegates for each state, except for Vermont where we'll just give him all 16, because they really do love him there. Finally, we'll assume a tie in American Samoa.
Under this somewhat best-case scenario for Bernie, he would get 412 delegates to Hillary's 453. So he'd still be competitive, but still very much behind. He'll have a lot of work to do after Super Tuesday.
One more thing: From now on, this post will only appear in the Hillary Clinton group (and on my journal).
How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).
The targets are taken from the Cook Political Report's model, based on superdelegate endorsement and demographic conditions favorable to each candidate, and represent the number of delegates each candidate must win in each state in order to stay on track to tie for the nomination. The targets are current as of February 12. The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the numbers indicate the population mean of the candidates' vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's a reasonable chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state.
If this post is useful to you, please K&R!
[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
I don't like Russian nesting dolls. They're so full of themselves![/font]
[hr]
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 21, 2016
[font color="blue"]Delegate Count
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 502, Sanders 70 (Clinton +432)
Pledged Delegates: Sanders 51, Clinton 51 (tie).
Versus Targets (Cook): Clinton +10, Sanders -11
Latest Results
Nevada Caucuses: Clinton 19, Sanders 15 (Clinton +4); 1 not yet allocated.
Versus 2/12 Targets: Clinton +3, Sanders -4.
Next Primary
South Carolina, February 27 (53 pledged delegates).
Targets (Cook): Clinton 28, Sanders 25.[/font]
[font color="darkblue"] Latest Polls
South Carolina (NBC/WSJ): Clinton 60, Sanders 32 (Clinton +28).
Michigan (FOX 2/Mitchell): Clinton 60, Sanders 27 (Clinton +33).
Michigan (PPP): Clinton 50, Sanders 40 (Clinton +10).
Michigan (ARG): Clinton 53, Sanders 40 (Clinton +13).
Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)
South Carolina: Clinton >99%.
Arkansas: Clinton 99%
Georgia: Clinton >99%.
Oklahoma: Clinton 78%.
Tennessee: Clinton 99%.
Texas: Clinton 98%.
Virginia: Clinton 98%.
Michigan: Clinton 98%.
North Carolina: Clinton 97%.
Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 468, Sanders 3.[/font]
[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 67, Cruz 11, Rubio 10.
538 Nevada Projection: Trump 65%, Rubio 23%, Cruz 12%.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 97, Cruz 22, Kasich 20.[/font]
Comments
A good day for Hillary fans yesterday! But conversely, not as bad for Sanders fans as it could have been. For all the polls are unreliable, Hillary could have won by double digits instead of by 5. Bernie is still in it.
South Carolina is a fait accompli for Hillary, so that it's not a question of whether she's going to win, but by how much. For the first time, the Cook target number is higher for Hillary than for Bernie, even with her massive superdelegate lead. Right now, the median projection on 538 is Hillary 65, Bernie 32; I wouldn't be surprised if that narrows over the next week, as is wont to happen, but I have little doubt that Hillary will get the 28 delegates she needs, and then some.
On the evil side, Bush is gone and Trump took all 50 of South Carolina's delegates. Rubio crowed last night that they were now in a three-way race, and that may be true, but let's dispell with this fiction that John Kasich doesn't know what he's doing. He knows exactly what he's doing. 
How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the election).
The targets are taken from the Cook Political Report's model, based on superdelegate endorsement and demographic conditions favorable to each candidate, and represent the number of delegates each candidate must win in each state in order to stay on track to tie for the nomination. The targets are current as of February 12. The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the projections indicate the probability that the candidate will win that state.
If this post is useful to you, please K&R!
[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
I read about a guy who jumped off the Pont Saint-Michel bridge in Paris. He must have been in Seine![/font]
[hr]
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 20, 2016
[font color="blue"]Delegate Count
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 483, Sanders 55 (Clinton +428)
Pledged Delegates: Sanders 36, Clinton 32 (Sanders +4)
Versus Targets (Cook): Clinton +7, Sanders -7.
Next Primary
Nevada caucuses, TODAY (35 pledged delegates).
Targets (Cook): Clinton 16, Sanders 19.[/font]
[font color="darkblue"] Latest Polls
South Carolina (NBC/WSJ): Clinton 60, Sanders 32 (Clinton +28).
Michigan (FOX 2/Mitchell): Clinton 60, Sanders 27 (Clinton +33).
Michigan (PPP): Clinton 50, Sanders 40 (Clinton +10).
Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)
Nevada: Clinton 71%.
South Carolina: Clinton >99%.
Arkansas: Clinton 99%
Georgia: Clinton >99%.
Oklahoma: Clinton 78%.
Tennessee: Clinton 99%.
Texas: Clinton 98%.
Virginia: Clinton 98%.
Michigan: Clinton 94%.
North Carolina: Clinton 97%.
Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 468, Sanders 3.[/font]
[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 17, Cruz 11, Rubio 10.
Versus Targets: Trump -4, Cruz -5, Rubio -10.
538 South Carolina Projection: Trump 76%, Rubio 11%, Cruz 11%.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 91, Bush 51, Cruz 22.[/font]
Comments
Happy Nevada Day!
I'll be completely honest, I have no idea what's going to happen in Nevada today. Republicans are making organized efforts to crash the caucuses and vote for Bernie. The Nevada Democratic Party has threatened to prosecute anyone who votes in both caucuses -- I don't know if their reading of the law is correct, or how many Republicans they'll scare off; I think a lot of them would give up their GOP vote entirely rather than let Hillary win Nevada. They're that afraid of her.
But Nevada polls are notoriously unreliable. In 2008 the RCP average had Romney beating McCain by 5 points, but he ended up winning by 38 points. So if 538 gives Hillary a 71% chance of winning, or if the last poll puts her ahead by 6, as much as I'd like to read into that, I can't.
A new Michigan poll from PPP has Hillary ahead by 10; given the proximity to other polls in February that have her ahead by around 30, it's probably an outlier.
Bernie fans have been claiming, not incorrectly, that Bernie has ended up under-polled in Iowa and New Hampshire. Keep in mind, however, that (a) two states is a lousy sample size, and (b) in both states, the polls fell within the 80% confidence range in 538's projections. To that end, I've created two different predictions of the upcoming states, one that continues Bernie's luck in this area, and one that assumes a median case. You can enjoy whichever one you want.
One more thing: It's pretty obvious that Hillary supporters appreciate the hard work I'm doing, collecting the objective numbers, and that Bernie fans do not. I really want the Bernie fans to be exposed to actual data, but I don't want to waste my time publishing this in two groups (I also publish it in the Hillary group). So if you're a Bernie fan, please vote in the poll below.
How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the election).
The targets are taken from the Cook Political Report's model, based on superdelegate endorsement and demographic conditions favorable to each candidate, and represent the number of delegates each candidate must win in each state in order to stay on track to tie for the nomination. The targets are current as of February 12. The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the projections indicate the probability that the candidate will win that state.
If this post is useful to you, please K&R!
[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
In economic news: cactus sales have spiked, but aquarium sales have tanked![/font]
[hr]
A Best-Case Scenario for Bernie
Here's what I did: I looked at every primary from now through March 15. For states where FiveThirtyEight has a spread projection, I took the 90th percentile of Bernie's projected vote (the right side of the blue bell curve). For example, while the projected vote in Nevada right now is 52-46 Hillary, the 90th percentile of Bernie's range is at 54, which would give Hillary 46, for total margin of +8.
For states where FiveThirtyEight doesn't have a projection, I took the most favorable (to Bernie) recent reputable poll and gave Bernie the undecideds. For example, Alabama's most recent poll is 59-31 Hillary, so I bumped Bernie up to 41, for a -18 margin. The exceptions are Colorado and Minnesota; the most recent polls there are very favorable for Hillary, but those polls are old, and they're caucus states which favors Bernie, so I simply assumed a tie in both those states.
I then compared these numbers to Nate Silver's target numbers at 538, the margins that Nate says Bernie needs to beat in each state in order to be on track to win the nomination.
Here's how it shakes down -- and again, this is a best-case scenario for Bernie.
[font color="red"]NEVADA: Needs -3; has +8.
[font color="blue"]SOUTH CAROLINA: Needs -11, has -24.
[font color="red"]VERMONT: Needs +49, has +76.
[font color="blue"]MINNESOTA: Needs +17, has 0.
[font color="blue"]COLORADO: Needs +13, has 0.
[font color="blue"]MASSACHUSETTS: Needs +11, has +7.
[font color="red"]OKLAHOMA: Needs +2, has +4.
[font color="blue"]TENNESSEE: Needs -4, has -18.
[font color="blue"]VIRGINIA: Needs -9, has -12.
[font color="red"]ARKANSAS: Needs -20, has -18.
[font color="red"]TEXAS: Needs -20, has -16.
[font color="blue"]GEORGIA: Needs -24, has -26.
[font color="red"]ALABAMA: Needs -27, has -18.
[font color="gray"]KANSAS: Needs +13; no data.
[font color="gray"]NEBRASKA: Needs +11; no data.
[font color="red"]LOUISIANA: Needs -22, has -20.
[font color="gray"]MAINE: Needs +27; no data.
[font color="blue"]MICHIGAN: Needs +11, has -16.
[font color="red"]MISSISSIPPI: Needs -32, has -20.
[font color="gray"]MISSOURI: Needs +4; no data.
[font color="blue"]NORTH CAROLINA: Needs 0, has -10.
[font color="blue"]OHIO: Needs -2, has -6.
[font color="gray"]ILLINOIS: Needs -3; no data.
[font color="blue"]FLORIDA: Needs -15, has -24.
[font color="black"]Anyone want to see a more realistic scenario?
(Originally posted in GDP -- I think, like most of you, I'm done there.)
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