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Fiendish Thingy

Fiendish Thingy's Journal
Fiendish Thingy's Journal
September 29, 2023

GREAT NEWS FOR DEMS!!! Digby: We all need a little hit of Hopium


Digby cuts and pastes an excellent perspective from veteran Dem strategist Simon Rosenberg.

Too much to summarize, and lots of supporting links to click on at link; I encourage everyone to click and read this entire spirit boosting article (and the supporting links, if you’re not familiar with the data Rosenberg’s assertions are based on), and paste the paragraph that made you smile the most.

Here’s mine:

Another change since 2020 is the broad public backlash, especially in Democratic-leaning and swing states, against the 2022 Supreme Court decision ending the constitutional right to abortion, which Trump has directly claimed credit for engineering through his nominations to the court. Finally, compared to 2020, the electorate in 2024 will likely include significantly more young people in Generation Z, a group that is preponderantly supporting Democrats, and fewer Whites without a college degree, now the GOP’s best group.

P.S. Rosenberg suggests that Dems could get up to 55% of the popular vote in 2024 (average for Dems in past 4 elections is 51%). The odds of losing the electoral college with 55% of the popular vote is something like less than 5%, maybe even lower.

UPDATE: it is lower. If, as Rosenberg projects, Biden hits 55%, and Trump maxes out at 45%, the odds of Biden losing the electoral college drop to less than 1%.

Are you smiling yet? 😁
September 7, 2023

Semafor: You need to calm down, Democratic pollsters argue

You’ve probably heard pundits tell you to ignore polls this far out from an election. This is not advice people are taking this week as surveys keep showing President Biden and Donald Trump tied after 91 felony charges and a string of positive headlines on jobs and inflation. Voters seem more judgmental than ever about Biden’s age, while polarized along familiar lines on the charges against Trump, and even a little nostalgic for his economic record.
But there are reasons campaign professionals tend to wave off early surveys, which have notoriously overstated threats to incumbents. Here’s why pollsters and strategists we spoke to say they’re not panicking yet.
There is no campaign. Every time you see a poll showing Biden’s approval in the 30s, mentally add an asterisk that says “before Democrats spend $1 billion.”
This isn’t so much about a prohibitive spending advantage (Republicans will have money too), but about what that money goes towards. In this case, it’s a message that so far has worked for Democrats in real-life conditions.
In the midterms, postmortems found that Democrats performed poorly in noncompetitive contests, but they won big in highly contested, swing state races where they could devote millions to ads on issues like abortion, drug prices, and entitlements while painting their opponents as “MAGA extremists.” The same formula has held up well in off-year elections since then, including a blowout judicial race in Wisconsin centered on abortion rights and gerrymandering.

Much more at link:


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