Sure, I can answer both questions

1) Assuming how asking me about what the MOE days and his it works in polling, I'm going to refer you to a primer I wrote earlier this year:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251567623

If, instead, you're actually asking how to mathematically calculate one, let me know, and I'll put together a post to explain it.

2) Nuke it from orbit. Only way to be sure.