I cannot imagine the 11th Circuit allowing this circus to continue until Dec. 1, and that’s part of why I expect that the 11th Circuit will promptly overrule Judge Cannon, ending the entire process.

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If The 11th Circuit Rules Against Trump, What Is Likely To Happen Next?

If the 11th Circuit rules against Trump, I would expect an emergency appeal to the Supreme Court, which would be quickly denied. As soon as that happens, I expect that newly appointed Special Counsel Jack Smith and his team will indict former President Trump on multiple counts.

Although Trump has tried to keep this case in the Southern District of Florida (where Republicans recently routed Democrats in statewide elections), I expect that the indictment would be issued from the District Court for the District of Columbia. The crimes related to the removal and retention of national security documents in violation of the Espionage Act were arguably committed when Trump removed them from the White House, making D.C. a possible venue for an indictment on those charges.

Trump would almost certainly fear a trial in front of a Washington, D.C., jury even more than he would fear a trial in front of a South Florida jury. Trump received only 5 percent of the vote in the District in 2020, by far his lowest total anywhere. By contrast, he won Florida in 2020