November 14, 2023

GRAPHS: month-by month bar graph and rolling 3 months

though nowadays they look at things like "supercore service inflation" and core ex shelter and who knows what other series.

First the regular headline CPI number, and the regular month-by-month increases (rolling 3 months stuff comes later) :



After a frightening late summer jump, a nice downward trend to 0% in October (actually 0.04% which annualizes to 0.54%)

Now the CORE CPI number that the Fed is more interested in (though actually its the CORE PCE inflation gauge that historically has been their #1 gauge of underlying inflation trend to project FUTURE inflation)


After a bump-up in late summer, a nice move downward in October back to the June-July numbers.

CPI Rolling 3 month average thru October 2023:

For better accuracy, I calculate the rolling 3 months average using the actual index numbers, not the one digit monthly change numbers

A rolling 3 month helps smooth out month-to-month volatility, and since 3 months is an average of 3 data points, it is less likely to be dismissed as a "one off" like a single month's increase could be.



The big August & September jump hurt the 3 month average. As August and September fall out of the 3 month average in the coming one and two months, there should be a dramatic improvement.

CORE CPI Rolling 3 month average thru October 2023:



It has finally come down to about the 3% range. As August and September fall out of the 3 month average in the coming months, this may well improve considerably.

The next Fed rate-setting meeting is December 12-13.

BLS CPI press release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Various series:

CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
CORE CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth

For all BLS timeseries data, one can see the index values and other periods like rolling 3 month, rolling 6 month, rolling 12 months by clicking "More Formatting Options" on the upper right and then on the page that shows up, check the various checkboxes

REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS of production and non-supervisory workers https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032 ,
. . . private workers: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000013

CPI excluding shelter - https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L2
. . . FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0L2
. . . Table 3 has CPI ex shelter, as well as Core ex shelter https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t03.htm

Rent (SA) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SEHA
Fred: (SA) Rent of Primary Residence in U.S. City Average https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHA
(NSA) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHA

SA = Seasonally Adjusted, NSA = Not Seasonally Adjusted

October 31, 2023

GRAPH: ECI - Employment Cost Index: 2018-Q1 thru 2023-Q3

The Employment Cost Index as it is said to be a much better indicator of wages and compensation than the usual go-to metric of average hourly earnings that comes out on first Fridays (usually). The ECI is said to looks at trends in the same occupations, whereas average hourly earnings gets distorted by job losses or gains occurring in certain sectors more than others; last hired first fired stuff (in the pandemic that caused the averages to soar). Whatever. I'm saying this off the top of my head, there are better explanations out there.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm

Their table shows the 12 month INFLATION-ADJUSTED number is +0.6%. At a glance I don't see their inflation-adjusted 3 month number anywhere.

==================================================================
From: https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/us-wages-grew-fastest-pace-decades-2021-prices-grew-even-more

[1] The Pandemic’s Effect on Measured Wage Growth, The WHite House, 4/19/21
https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2021/04/19/the-pandemics-effect-on-measured-wage-growth/

=====================================================


This particular one is INFLATION-ADJUSTED wage and salaries for private sector workers.

Note the build-up to the Q2.2020 peak. Then it plateaued through Q1.2021, President Biden's first quarter, then went down.
Finally it has been turning up since a local bottom in Q3.2022 for four quarters.

The last reading (103.2) is 3.1% below the peak, and 2.9% below the Q1.2021 value.

We're not quite at the 2019 Q4 pre-pandemic level of 104.4, but are getting there (We're down 1.1% from that level).

Source: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2018/02/are-wages-increasing-or-decreasing

I tediously moused over point by point gathering the data from their graph (the numbers for each point pop up, so I didn't have to "read" the graph like back in middle school). Later: There's a "Download data" link at the lower left of the second graph at the Source that I had been aware of and had clicked and thought it was just downloading a PDF file of the page. But it turned out it was offering to download the Excel data for the graph which is of course what I wanted. So I did that and verified that the data was the same, to within 0.0 accuracy, as used for my graph, but I went ahead and replaced my old data with it (since it has a few more digits to the right of the decimal, and heck why not).

The source link just above also compares to inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings and also to inflation-adjusted median usual earnings of full-time workers.

This (the ECI) is reportedly the Fed's favorite wage and salary indicator as explained earlier in the post.

October 13, 2023

GRAPHS of CPI and CORE CPI (from yesterday's inflation report)

October 1, 2023

Amazon: "Important information about your Google Play gift card order"

Anyway that's the title of an email from store-news@amazon.com that I got about 30 minutes after placing an order for stuff (but not gift cards) at Amazon.

The email continues:

"Thank you for purchasing Google Play gift cards from Amazon.com.

We would like our customers to be aware of some important information relating to purchase of Google Play gift cards.

There are a variety of scams in which fraudsters try to trick others into paying with gift cards from well-known brands. To learn more about some common scam attempts that may involve asking for payment using gift cards please click on the button below, or alternatively contact us now (link)

I Googled and found some Reddit threads with postings like this:

Called Amazon through the app and had a waaaay long wait time. They assured me that the emails were a test to tell us to look out for emails like that.

One would think Amazon would send a follow up email and post something on their website. One would think wrong.

September 27, 2023

Hard boiled eggs

The most common Internet suggestions look something like this:

Put eggs in saucepan, add cold water (eggs b4 water) to cover, and heat it up rapidly to boiling

Turn off heat and set a timer for 10 minutes

After 10 minutes, dunk the eggs in an ice bath to stop the cooking. Best to begin peeling while still warm.

Anyway almost all the methods I've seen, and I've seen many, have this in common.

I found peeling to be a real bit by bit by bit chore. I decided never again.

I found but lost a great article that discussed positively and skeptically all the different suggestions that can be found, so unfortunately I can't post it. But here are a couple of articles:

We Tried the 5 Best Ways to Perfectly Peel a Hard-Boiled Egg
These are the most effective techniques from Reddit and YouTube.
https://www.prevention.com/food-nutrition/healthy-eating/a20486471/best-way-to-peel-a-hard-boiled-egg/

We're Using a Spoon To Peel Our Hard-Boiled Eggs From Now On ...
Take an egg out of the cooling water and crack it along the fat end by tapping it on the counter or cutting board. Peel just enough shell to be able to slip the tip of a spoon under the shell. Carefully slide the spoon in so that the curve of the spoon follows the curve of the egg. Then, rotate the egg as you move the spoon between the shell and the egg white.
https://www.southernliving.com/food/dairy/eggs/how-to-peel-boiled-egg-with-spoon

Does anyone have some suggestions to make this all easy? Thanks

=============================================

BTW, my gas stove gave out some time ago, and I've been making do with slow cookers, which fortunately also have grill bases. But these are kind of slow heating - I think they max out at 500 watts.

I have on order from Amazon:

CUSIMAX Electric Hot Plate for Cooking Portable Single Burner 1500W Cast Iron hot plates Heat-up in Seconds Adjustable Temperature Control Stainless Steel Non-Slip Rubber Feet Upgraded Version B101
https://www.amazon.com/CUSIMAX-Electric-Adjustable-Temperature-Stainless/dp/B07D71TD67/ref=sxin_17_sbv_search_btf
-- Not induction, 8.78"D x 11.6"W x 3.39"H (so roughly 9" X 12", < 4"tall) Wattage 1500 watts
-- "uses 7 thermostatically controlled heat settings conveniently to cook a variety of foods such as warm sauces, decoct steak, grilled cheese, boil water, make soup, cook pasta and vegetables and do so much more. Meet your daily cooking needs."

Anyway, for a hot plate, I've never seen so many bells and whistles.

=============================================

As for what to have for breakfast, I haven't thought about it yet, beyond sipping a cup of coffee now. I don't have any eggs around, so it won't be hard-boiled eggs.

EDITED TO ADD: 3 prunes, and an apple, (and the coffee) and that's probably going to be about it. I'm just not hungry for anything that's in the fridge/cupboards/pantry right now.

July 13, 2023

GRAPHS (Final Edition. Previously was Dump-and-Run Preliminary Edition)

PPI (top, red graph): June: +0.1%, 12 months: +0.2%,
Average of last 3 months: -0.7% (annualized)

Rolling 3 month average (annualized) thru June'23, last 8 readings
4.0% 1.5% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% -1.4% -2.8% -0.7%

^--The first number is the 3 month average Sep'22 - Nov'22
The second number is the 3 month average Oct'22 - Dec'22
The third number is the 3 month average Nov'22 - Jan'23
and so on with the last number being the 3 month average Apr'23-Jun'23






===================================================

CORE (final demand less foods, energy, and trade services, bottom blue graph): June: +0.1% , 12 months: +2.6%
Average of last 3 months: +0.8% (annualized)

Rolling 3 month average (annualized) thru June'23, last 8 readings
3.4% 2.9% 4.3% 4.0% 3.9% 2.2% 1.0% 0.8%

^--The first number is the 3 month average Sep'22 - Nov'22
The second number is the 3 month average Oct'22 - Dec'22
The third number is the 3 month average Nov'22 - Jan'23
and so on with the last number being the 3 month average Apr'23-Jun'23

===================================================

Latest PPI summary http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
Producer prices front page: http://www.bls.gov/ppi/
Producer Price Index (PPI), seasonally adjusted http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4?output_view=pct_1mth

OLD CORE PPI - Producer Price Index, seasonally adjusted - Final demand goods less foods and energy -
   http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD413?output_view=pct_1mth
CORE PPI - Producer Price Index, seasonally adjusted - Final demand less foods. energy. and trade services -
   http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116?output_view=pct_1mth

I use the latter Core PPI (final demand less foods, energy, and trade services) because that's what the BLS features in its news release).

===================================================

Graphs from yesterday's CPI report:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143099462#post12

This is the last inflation report before the Fed's rate-setting decision on July 26.

The PCE inflation report -- the Fed's favorite -- comes out after the meeting on July 28 (why don't they coordinate? I read the Federal Reserve has 800 PhD's in Economics, not enough apparently).

Thanks BRDS for the help on annotating graphs / images. I've come up with something that's a little more awkward than it should be (In Paint having to save the annotated image and then open it up again, can't just Control C copy instead), but anyway it works. More later. Thanks again.

July 12, 2023

Since January 2021, stock market total return: +17.19%, But consumer prices up 15.91%

So the purchasing power of the total U.S. stock market fund is up 1.10% since inflation began in about January 2021... that is, since inflation consistently above the 2% target began.

The market: VTSAX Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (total U.S. stock market)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VTSAX/history
Using the Adjusted Close figures which are adjusted for reinvested dividends. Thus these are total return figures:

1/1/21: 91.66
7/12/23: 107.42
+17.19%


Inflation: CPI:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
1'21: 262.650 (1'21 means January 2021)
6'23: 303.841
7'23: 304.449 (I just made it 0.2% higher than 6'23)
+15.91%

Real (inflation-adjusted) market up 107.42/91.66 * 262.650/304.449 = 1.01104 => 1.10%.

As for when sustained inflation above the Fed's 2.0% target began: It went above the pre-pandemic approximately 2.0% trendline in around January-February 2021

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL
IMGUR beginning May 2017

One has to get their straight edge out -- I couldn't figure out how to draw a straight line on the graph at IMGUR or the Windows Snip Tool.

I've also looked at every CPI graph from month-by-month to rolling 3 month averages, 6 month averages, 12 month averages, even rolling 36 month averages, so I'm comfortable that January 2021 is close.

Another interesting thing about the above graph is that the inflection point where inflation began a marked slowdown is clear on the graph: around June or July 2022. That X-axis label that is obscured by the "i" in Picsart is July 2022, and that's about where the "kink" is. No surprise: the month over month figures in May 2022 is 0.9% and June is 1.2%, followed by 0.0% and 0.2% in July and August 2022 respectively, making for a rather sharp change in slope.

As for the current CPI and core CPI trends (in the past 13 months or so):

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143099462#post12

July 12, 2023

Graphs (the Core CPI finally edges down on a rolling 3 month basis)

though nowadays they look at things like "supercore service inflation" and core ex shelter and who knows what other series.

First the regular headline CPI number, and the regular month-by-month increases (rolling 3 months stuff comes later) :



Now the CORE CPI number that the Fed is more interested in (though actually its the CORE PCE inflation gauge that historically has been their #1 gauge of underlying inflation trend to project FUTURE inflation)



Obviously a nice move downward in June. It is actually a 0.16% increase when calculated using the actual index numbers (1.91% annualized). But is it a "one off" outlier?

CORE CPI Rolling 3 month average thru June 2023:

A rolling 3 month helps smooth out month-to-month volatility, and since 3 months is an average of 3 data points, is less likely to be dismissed as a "one off" like a single month's increase could be.



It's been stuck in the 4 to 5% range since November, but has hit the bottom of that range (4.08% annualized calculated using the actual index numbers). Still 2X the Fed's target. So yes, more rate hikes are coming (next Fed rate-setting meeting is July 26-27)

Various series:

BLS CPI press release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
CORE CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth

For all BLS timeseries data, one can see the index values and other periods like rolling 3 month, rolling 6 month, rolling 12 months by clicking "More Formatting Options" on the upper right and then on the page that shows up, check the various checkboxes

REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS of production and non-supervisory workers https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032 ,
. . . private workers: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000013

CPI excluding shelter - https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L2
. . . FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0L2
. . . Table 3 has CPI ex shelter, as well as Core ex shelter https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t03.htm

Rent (SA) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SEHA
Fred: (SA) Rent of Primary Residence in U.S. City Average https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHA
(NSA) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHA

SA = Seasonally Adjusted, NSA = Not Seasonally Adjusted

June 30, 2023

Today's PCE Inflation Report - the Fed's favorite gauge (core PCE)

The PCE Inflation report came out today, Friday 6/30/23. On the overall inflation, May (+0.1%) was a welcome low-side surprise after the sizable 0.4% increase in April (see the red bars in the below graph), while the core PCE inflation still remains high, but the downtick in May (0.3%) compared to April (0.4%) was appreciated -- see the blue bars.

The Federal reserve's favorite inflation gauge for projecting FUTURE inflation has been the core PCE (which is the PCE less food and energy). It's not that food and energy are unimportant, but are quite volatile from month to month. The core measure is thought to be better for projecting trends into the future.





Below is the CORE PCE inflation trend -- the rolling 3 month average and the rolling 6 month average
The 3 month rolling average had a nice little downturn because the big January increase (+0.6%) dropped out of the 3 month range in April.


It's still stuck at a little bit more than double the Fed's 2% target.

*********LINKS
PCE News release: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm
. . . Current release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/personal-income-and-outlays-may-2023

The above shows the last 5 months. I found the latest 12 months (and way beyond) at FRED:

PCE: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
CORE PCE: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE

The rolling 3 month and 6 month figures are calculated from the index values from the above FRED series for the CORE PCE (not from doing one digit math averages).


Consumer Price Index (CPI) released June 13

For comparison purposes, here is the most recent consumer price index graph (through May, released June 13)

CPI - https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
CORE CPI - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth
(Choose "More Formatting Options" at the upper right of the page for other views such as rolling averages of past 12 months, past 6 months, past 3 months)


Unfortunately the CORE CPI shows the same stubborn stickiness at around 0.4%/month for the last 8 months.

June 13, 2023

Graphs (the Core CPI, which traditionally is the favorite measure of the Fed, is stubbornly stuck)

though nowadays they look at things like "supercore service inflation" and core ex shelter and who knows what other series.

Edited to add Same graph as above but CPI and CORE CPI shown separately for less clutter and more clarity



Various series:

BLS CPI press release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
CORE CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth

For all BLS timeseries data, one can see the index values and other periods like rolling 3 month, rolling 6 month, rolling 12 months by clicking "More Formatting Options" on the upper right and then on the page that shows up, check the various checkboxes

REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS of production and non-supervisory workers https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032 ,
. . . private workers: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000013

CPI excluding shelter - https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L2
. . . FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0L2
. . . Table 3 has CPI ex shelter, as well as Core ex shelter https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t03.htm

Rent (SA) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SEHA
Fred: (SA) Rent of Primary Residence in U.S. City Average https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHA
(NSA) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHA

SA = Seasonally Adjusted, NSA = Not Seasonally Adjusted