July 13, 2023

GRAPHS (Final Edition. Previously was Dump-and-Run Preliminary Edition)

PPI (top, red graph): June: +0.1%, 12 months: +0.2%,
Average of last 3 months: -0.7% (annualized)

Rolling 3 month average (annualized) thru June'23, last 8 readings
4.0% 1.5% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% -1.4% -2.8% -0.7%

^--The first number is the 3 month average Sep'22 - Nov'22
The second number is the 3 month average Oct'22 - Dec'22
The third number is the 3 month average Nov'22 - Jan'23
and so on with the last number being the 3 month average Apr'23-Jun'23






===================================================

CORE (final demand less foods, energy, and trade services, bottom blue graph): June: +0.1% , 12 months: +2.6%
Average of last 3 months: +0.8% (annualized)

Rolling 3 month average (annualized) thru June'23, last 8 readings
3.4% 2.9% 4.3% 4.0% 3.9% 2.2% 1.0% 0.8%

^--The first number is the 3 month average Sep'22 - Nov'22
The second number is the 3 month average Oct'22 - Dec'22
The third number is the 3 month average Nov'22 - Jan'23
and so on with the last number being the 3 month average Apr'23-Jun'23

===================================================

Latest PPI summary http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
Producer prices front page: http://www.bls.gov/ppi/
Producer Price Index (PPI), seasonally adjusted http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4?output_view=pct_1mth

OLD CORE PPI - Producer Price Index, seasonally adjusted - Final demand goods less foods and energy -
   http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD413?output_view=pct_1mth
CORE PPI - Producer Price Index, seasonally adjusted - Final demand less foods. energy. and trade services -
   http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116?output_view=pct_1mth

I use the latter Core PPI (final demand less foods, energy, and trade services) because that's what the BLS features in its news release).

===================================================

Graphs from yesterday's CPI report:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143099462#post12

This is the last inflation report before the Fed's rate-setting decision on July 26.

The PCE inflation report -- the Fed's favorite -- comes out after the meeting on July 28 (why don't they coordinate? I read the Federal Reserve has 800 PhD's in Economics, not enough apparently).

Thanks BRDS for the help on annotating graphs / images. I've come up with something that's a little more awkward than it should be (In Paint having to save the annotated image and then open it up again, can't just Control C copy instead), but anyway it works. More later. Thanks again.

July 12, 2023

Since January 2021, stock market total return: +17.19%, But consumer prices up 15.91%

So the purchasing power of the total U.S. stock market fund is up 1.10% since inflation began in about January 2021... that is, since inflation consistently above the 2% target began.

The market: VTSAX Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (total U.S. stock market)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VTSAX/history
Using the Adjusted Close figures which are adjusted for reinvested dividends. Thus these are total return figures:

1/1/21: 91.66
7/12/23: 107.42
+17.19%


Inflation: CPI:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
1'21: 262.650 (1'21 means January 2021)
6'23: 303.841
7'23: 304.449 (I just made it 0.2% higher than 6'23)
+15.91%

Real (inflation-adjusted) market up 107.42/91.66 * 262.650/304.449 = 1.01104 => 1.10%.

As for when sustained inflation above the Fed's 2.0% target began: It went above the pre-pandemic approximately 2.0% trendline in around January-February 2021

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL
IMGUR beginning May 2017

One has to get their straight edge out -- I couldn't figure out how to draw a straight line on the graph at IMGUR or the Windows Snip Tool.

I've also looked at every CPI graph from month-by-month to rolling 3 month averages, 6 month averages, 12 month averages, even rolling 36 month averages, so I'm comfortable that January 2021 is close.

Another interesting thing about the above graph is that the inflection point where inflation began a marked slowdown is clear on the graph: around June or July 2022. That X-axis label that is obscured by the "i" in Picsart is July 2022, and that's about where the "kink" is. No surprise: the month over month figures in May 2022 is 0.9% and June is 1.2%, followed by 0.0% and 0.2% in July and August 2022 respectively, making for a rather sharp change in slope.

As for the current CPI and core CPI trends (in the past 13 months or so):

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143099462#post12

July 12, 2023

Graphs (the Core CPI finally edges down on a rolling 3 month basis)

though nowadays they look at things like "supercore service inflation" and core ex shelter and who knows what other series.

First the regular headline CPI number, and the regular month-by-month increases (rolling 3 months stuff comes later) :



Now the CORE CPI number that the Fed is more interested in (though actually its the CORE PCE inflation gauge that historically has been their #1 gauge of underlying inflation trend to project FUTURE inflation)



Obviously a nice move downward in June. It is actually a 0.16% increase when calculated using the actual index numbers (1.91% annualized). But is it a "one off" outlier?

CORE CPI Rolling 3 month average thru June 2023:

A rolling 3 month helps smooth out month-to-month volatility, and since 3 months is an average of 3 data points, is less likely to be dismissed as a "one off" like a single month's increase could be.



It's been stuck in the 4 to 5% range since November, but has hit the bottom of that range (4.08% annualized calculated using the actual index numbers). Still 2X the Fed's target. So yes, more rate hikes are coming (next Fed rate-setting meeting is July 26-27)

Various series:

BLS CPI press release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
CORE CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth

For all BLS timeseries data, one can see the index values and other periods like rolling 3 month, rolling 6 month, rolling 12 months by clicking "More Formatting Options" on the upper right and then on the page that shows up, check the various checkboxes

REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS of production and non-supervisory workers https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032 ,
. . . private workers: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000013

CPI excluding shelter - https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L2
. . . FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0L2
. . . Table 3 has CPI ex shelter, as well as Core ex shelter https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t03.htm

Rent (SA) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SEHA
Fred: (SA) Rent of Primary Residence in U.S. City Average https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHA
(NSA) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHA

SA = Seasonally Adjusted, NSA = Not Seasonally Adjusted

June 30, 2023

Today's PCE Inflation Report - the Fed's favorite gauge (core PCE)

The PCE Inflation report came out today, Friday 6/30/23. On the overall inflation, May (+0.1%) was a welcome low-side surprise after the sizable 0.4% increase in April (see the red bars in the below graph), while the core PCE inflation still remains high, but the downtick in May (0.3%) compared to April (0.4%) was appreciated -- see the blue bars.

The Federal reserve's favorite inflation gauge for projecting FUTURE inflation has been the core PCE (which is the PCE less food and energy). It's not that food and energy are unimportant, but are quite volatile from month to month. The core measure is thought to be better for projecting trends into the future.





Below is the CORE PCE inflation trend -- the rolling 3 month average and the rolling 6 month average
The 3 month rolling average had a nice little downturn because the big January increase (+0.6%) dropped out of the 3 month range in April.


It's still stuck at a little bit more than double the Fed's 2% target.

*********LINKS
PCE News release: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm
. . . Current release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/personal-income-and-outlays-may-2023

The above shows the last 5 months. I found the latest 12 months (and way beyond) at FRED:

PCE: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
CORE PCE: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE

The rolling 3 month and 6 month figures are calculated from the index values from the above FRED series for the CORE PCE (not from doing one digit math averages).


Consumer Price Index (CPI) released June 13

For comparison purposes, here is the most recent consumer price index graph (through May, released June 13)

CPI - https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
CORE CPI - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth
(Choose "More Formatting Options" at the upper right of the page for other views such as rolling averages of past 12 months, past 6 months, past 3 months)


Unfortunately the CORE CPI shows the same stubborn stickiness at around 0.4%/month for the last 8 months.

June 13, 2023

Graphs (the Core CPI, which traditionally is the favorite measure of the Fed, is stubbornly stuck)

though nowadays they look at things like "supercore service inflation" and core ex shelter and who knows what other series.

Edited to add Same graph as above but CPI and CORE CPI shown separately for less clutter and more clarity



Various series:

BLS CPI press release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
CORE CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth

For all BLS timeseries data, one can see the index values and other periods like rolling 3 month, rolling 6 month, rolling 12 months by clicking "More Formatting Options" on the upper right and then on the page that shows up, check the various checkboxes

REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS of production and non-supervisory workers https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032 ,
. . . private workers: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000013

CPI excluding shelter - https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L2
. . . FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0L2
. . . Table 3 has CPI ex shelter, as well as Core ex shelter https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t03.htm

Rent (SA) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SEHA
Fred: (SA) Rent of Primary Residence in U.S. City Average https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHA
(NSA) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHA

SA = Seasonally Adjusted, NSA = Not Seasonally Adjusted

May 26, 2023

Today's PCE Inflation Report - the Fed's favorite gauge (core PCE)

The PCE Inflation report came out today, Friday 5/26/23. On the overall inflation, April (+0.4%) was a surprise increase from March (+0.1%) (see the red bars in the below graph), while the core PCE inflation still remains high, and has not come down much in recent months -- see the blue bars.

The Federal reserve's favorite inflation gauge for projecting FUTURE inflation has been the core PCE (which is the PCE less food and energy). It's not that food and energy are unimportant, but are quite volatile from month to month. The core measure is thought to be better for projecting trends into the future.




Below is the CORE PCE inflation trend -- the rolling 3 month average and the rolling 6 month average
The 3 month rolling average had a nice little downturn because the big January increase (+0.6%) dropped out of the 3 month range


It's still stuck at a little bit more than double the Fed's 2% target.

*********LINKS
PCE News release: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm

The above shows the last 5 months. I found the latest 12 months (and way beyond) at FRED:

PCE: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
CORE PCE: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE

The rolling 3 month and 6 month figures are calculated from the index values from the above FRED series for the CORE PCE (not from doing one digit math averages).


Consumer Price Index (CPI) released May 10

For comparison purposes, here is the most recent consumer price index graph (through April, released May 10)

CPI - https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
CORE CPI - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth
(Choose "More Formatting Options" at the upper right of the page for other views such as rolling averages of past 12 months, past 6 months, past 3 months)


Inflation measures - last 3 months annualized, thru April 2023. Up to date as of 5/26/23

. . REGULAR   CORE
PCE 3.13%     4.25%
CPI 3.21%     5.10%
PPI -0.44%     2.16% (Producer Price Index, aka Wholesale Prices)

Cooling wholesale prices should ideally be reflected in the PCE and CPI in the next month or two, but seems not to be that good of a predictor.

May 18, 2023

Suspected arson damages St. Paul Islamic center, 6th attack on MN mosques this year

Emphasis added by progree.

More: including video of the damage: https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/st-paul-fd-investigating-suspected-arson-at-islamic-center-on-dale-street/

May 12, 2023

Prime-age workers are flooding back into the workforce. Older workers are staying home

Adriana Belmonte·Senior Distribution Editor, Yahoo Finance, 5/12/23

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prime-age-workers-are-flooding-back-into-the-workforce-older-workers-are-staying-home-131339316.html

LFPR = Labor Force Participation rates

The graphs are fascinating so I'm listing them. What is below the "GRAPH" line in each case is Progree's impression of what's most interesting about the graph.

Always remember that for plain ol' LFPR, that is age 16 to infinity, yes including centenarians, and are affected by the general aging of the workforce, the rapidly increasing average age of the senior component of the population, and of course boomer retirements. The age 55+ is also increasingly average older age too.

GRAPH: LFPR of 25-54 years old aka Prime Age, and age 55+ (1/2018 onward) .
Age 25-54 is at 83.3%, equal to the pre-pandemic high of January 2020 and the highest rate since September 2008

GRAPH: Job Openings and Hires. (9/2016 onward)
Job openings have fallen to lowest since April '21. But this is still way up from what preceded April 2021

GRAPH: LFPR of: Hispanics/Latinos, Blacks, Whites (1/2019 onward).
Hispanics/Latinos are about 5 percentage points higher than whites, Blacks about 2 percentage points higher than whites in a recent upsurge. Remember the labor force participation rate is the percentage of the age 16+ population (in this graph) that is employed or is actively seeking work (more than just looking at job listings is required to be included in this). Something to keep in mind when some redneck says "them uhh multicultural types are lazy and don't want to work nowadays".

GRAPH: LFPR (1/1971 onward)

Also included is a lot of blah blah about the factors that may be depressing older people's LFPR and holding some back of all ages (compared to say the peak decades ago - the prime age peak was around 2000). I won't attempt to summarize all that or excerpt-icize all that.

Here's a dump of many LFPR data series

The LFPR is the Employed + jobless people who have looked for work in the last 4 weeks (and say they want a job and are able to take one if offered. Looking for work involves more than just looking at job listings). All divided by the civilian non-institutional population age 16+ (in the case of the regular LFPR, or divided by the civilian non-institutional population of whatever age, gender, race etc. for the various sub-demographic measures. For example. the LFPR of age 25-54 females is the number of those employed or actively seeking work divided by the civilian non-institutional population of age 25-54 females.)

SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted

LFPR - Labor Force Participation Rate for some age groups
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300000
16-24: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11324887 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01324887
25-34: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300089
25-54: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300060
55-64: -------------------- NSA: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300095
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300097

[] Labor Force Participation Rate (prime age 25-54) by gender
All: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060
Men: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300061
Women: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300062

[] Labor Force Participation Rate (age 16+) by gender
ALL: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
Men: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300001
Women: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300002

[] Labor Force Participation Rates, Blacks, Whites,

Black LFPR: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300006
White LFPR: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300003

LFPR age 25-54: LNS11300060 & LNU01300060 There are no SA timeseries available for black and white
Blacks: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300066 (no SA),
Whites: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300063 (no SA),

May 11, 2023

PPI Graphs and links (with yesterday's CPI graph at the bottom)

-------^^-DARN, that should read APR 2022, not APR 2023

Rolling 3 month average of CORE PPI (annualized), last 6 readings: 3.4%, 2.9%, 4.5%, 4.0%, 3.8%, 2.2%

The big January +0.6% reading dropped out of the 3 month average, helping to drop the 3 month average thru April by more than 1.5 percentage points

Latest PPI summary http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
Producer prices front page: http://www.bls.gov/ppi/
Producer Price Index (PPI), seasonally adjusted http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4?output_view=pct_1mth

OLD CORE PPI - Producer Price Index, seasonally adjusted - Final demand goods less foods and energy -
   http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD413?output_view=pct_1mth
CORE PPI - Producer Price Index, seasonally adjusted - Final demand less foods. energy. and trade services -
   http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116?output_view=pct_1mth

I use the latter Core PPI (final demand less foods, energy, and trade services) because that's what the BLS features in its news release).

Compare to yesterday's CPI report which is pretty much been flatlined for several months at more than double the Fed's 2% target



All about yesterday's CPI: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143072605#post5

May 10, 2023

Graphs. Links. Rolling 3 month averages

CPI: . . . . April: +0.4% (March: +0.1%), 12 months: +4.9%
CORE CPI: April: +0.4% (March: +0.4%), 12 months: +5.5%

SOME 12 month changes: Energy: -5.1%, Food: +7.7%,

Rolling 3 month averages thru April, latest 6 values (annualized)
CPI: . . . . 4.5% 3.3% 3.5% 4.1% 3.8% 3.2%
Core CPI: 5.0% 4.3% 4.6% 5.2% 5.1% 5.1%

BLS's Monthly CPI report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Some excerpts:


CPI Index: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
CPI Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0?output_view=pct_1mth

Core CPI Index: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E
Core CPI Monthly Changes: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth

To view 3 month changes, 6 month changes, year-over-year changes of data.bls.gov time series, click on "More Formatting Options" on the upper right, and check the appropriate checkboxes.

Real average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory workers http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032

Real average hourly earnings of private sector workers http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000013

A more reliable gauge of wages and salaries:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143067288#post4

So real wages and salaries have finally turned up in the last 2 quarters.

The last reading is 3.7% below the peak, and 3.4% below the Q1.2021 value.

Source: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2018/02/are-wages-increasing-or-decreasing

Unfortunately the Employment Cost Index comes out only once a quarter. So we will have to wait until July to get the next quarterly report.