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UncleNoel

Profile Information

Member since: Mon Jul 11, 2005, 11:05 AM
Number of posts: 858

About Me

White, male, expatriate living in the mountains of central Taiwan, Oregon permanent address, 34 years of age. Born in St. Louis. Army brat lived all over. Veteran of the Korean War (sieved in Libya and Austin, Texas). Ph.D. in anthropology and linguistics, Indiana University. Career in linguistics and ESL at numerous US and foreign institutions. Spent most of my career as a director of English as a Second Language programs. Taught at National Chi Nan Unversity, Puli, Taiwan over the years 1995-2016. Retired as an orchard keeper with my life partner Judy Wu of the Bunun Austronesian tribe in our mountain hideaway cabin, High Mountain Orchards.

Journal Archives

UncleNoel's Pre-Debate November Tracking Poll to date: Biden 27, Warren 19, Sanders 18 [Biden +8]

PROBABLY WILL HAVE AN UPDATE JUST PRIOR TO THE DEBATE IF OTHER POLLS ARE POSTED.

Bfiden staying in his plus 25 lane. Warren slipping (below her 20-25 lane). Sanders keeping in his lane (15-20).




Including A, B, B/C, C+ (Crazytown won't like this. Lol!)

The Latest Early States Polls by YouGov and what they show in graphs and charts

As shown by 538


Biden is doingwell across the board, Sanders not so bad, Warren OK, but Buttigieg not really surging.


The Last two Iowa Polls ended the same day,but with very different results.


The YouGov NH Poll seems odd. If valid, Warren is SURGING. But IMHO it is really out of whack.


*UPDATE* Pre-Debate November Tracking Poll for Iowa: Buttigieg surging, other top tier congregating

Includes the latest Selzer & Co Poll.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/iowa/
Buttigieg definitely surging, Warren dropping to a virtual tie with Sanders and Biden


UncleNoel's Pre-Debate November Tracking Poll to date : Biden 26, Warren 18, Sanders 17 [Biden +8]

The all Adult Ipsos Poll twice had Warren at 11% which seems odd to me. I am wondering whether or not to post GP (all Adult) polls and rely only on RV and LV (registered and likely voters). However, some tracking cites include Ipsos.
LINKS:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#October_2019
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html



*UPDATED* Pre-Debate Iowa Tracking Poll: Buttigieg, Biden rising, Warren top, Sanders 4th

November Polls only.
Buttigieg gains lead, Biden rising to 2nd place, Warren slipping, Sanders fourth




LINKS:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html#polls
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#Iowa_caucus

Nebraska tracking poll comingup soon.

LOL! Faux News calls Biden's superb CNN Town Hall "Disatrous"

Joe Biden stumbles over Warren's elitism during CNN town hall
Fox News contributor Raymond Arroyo breaks down Joe Biden's disastrous town hall on 'The Ingraham Angle.'
FOX News Videos•November 13, 2019
https://news.yahoo.com/joe-biden-stumbles-over-warrens-040247071.html

Talk about slanting the news...

Uncle Noel's November Aggregate Averages to Date: Biden 28, Warren 20, Sanders 16




Commentary:
The Ipsos Poll is very peculiar and skews the trajectory for Biden and Warren. Sanders not so much. It is a GP (General Population aka Adult) poll which are good for opinion polls but not so refined as Registered voters (RV) or, the best Likely Voters (LV). 11 for Warren is ridiculous!
Putting Ipsos aside Biden gains 1 point and Warren more. Still, the three lanes for the three upper tier candidates remains stable. Biden cruises the high road 26 and up, Warren rides the 20-25 trail and Sanders takes the low road 14-19 (though swerving into Warren's land with a 20 in tew Morning Consult poll).


A+ to B/C rated poles only. I am considering not including GP (A) polls, but Ipsos is not always such an outlier.

Thanks to Skya for posting the Morning Consult. It wasn't up on 538 or RCP yet.

We need a president who can unite all of our country

https://www.facebook.com/joebiden/videos/477452352864208/
'm running for president to unite this country. There's nothing we cannot do if we do it together.

FYI: Wikipedia provides an aggregate of averages, currently Biden 27.4, Warren 21.5, Sanders 16.9

All candidates given below:

Nationwide opinion polling for the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#Polling_aggregation

This is the latest update:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#November_2019
They have charted the poll aggregates since December 2018.



There reasons for choosing polls and a list of them is also provided.





Day-by-Day Poll Tracker for the 2020 National Democratic Primary: Biden 30, Warren 21, Sanders 16

Still a work in progress.


Commentary:[/
Only the top-tier candidates are shown. If any other candidate rises to the double digit area, they will be shown as well.
Biden owns the 26-34% Lane. He is the clear frontrunner.
Warren and Sanders vying for the position as the challenger with Warren clearly in the lead having risen to take over (almost) the 20-25% Lane.
Sanders is driving own the 14-19% Lane. However, at the end of the month he swings up to challenge Warren who at one point had swerved down nto his lane.
Warren is slipping just a bit, but holding her own for the most part. Sanders rising and can't be discounted, but Biden has a substantial lead.


The end of the month tallies might change if other polls are released covering the tail end of the month.

NOTE: The span of the Aggregate Average is based on the last repeated poll. That is, Morning Consult during this period had two previous releases and the Aggregate Average then is from the day after the last previous release. In this manner no poll can contribute multiple times to the Aggregate Average for the candidates.
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