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UncleNoel

Profile Information

Member since: Mon Jul 11, 2005, 11:05 AM
Number of posts: 858

About Me

White, male, expatriate living in the mountains of central Taiwan, Oregon permanent address, 34 years of age. Born in St. Louis. Army brat lived all over. Veteran of the Korean War (sieved in Libya and Austin, Texas). Ph.D. in anthropology and linguistics, Indiana University. Career in linguistics and ESL at numerous US and foreign institutions. Spent most of my career as a director of English as a Second Language programs. Taught at National Chi Nan Unversity, Puli, Taiwan over the years 1995-2016. Retired as an orchard keeper with my life partner Judy Wu of the Bunun Austronesian tribe in our mountain hideaway cabin, High Mountain Orchards.

Journal Archives

CA Democratic Primary Results Update 93% of precincts 3/5: Sanders 33.8. Biden 25.1 /Delegate count

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#California
and
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_California_Democratic_primary



No other candidate reached the threshold so no delegates.

Not exactly the run away win Sanders would hope for.

The "canvass" period goes until April 3rd when final results will be posted.

Obama Learned to Love Biden. Now Democratic Voters Are, Too.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/barack-obama-learned-to-love-joe-biden-now-democratic-voters-are-too?ref=wrap
With Joe, familiarity breeds not contempt, but respect and even love.
Jonathan Alter
Published Mar. 05, 2020 4:42AM ET

Not long after the 2008 Democratic Convention, Barack Obama had a chilly phone conversation with his running mate, Joe Biden. Obama was annoyed that Biden seemed to be saying something stupid on the campaign trail practically every week. This time it was Biden aimlessly speculating that Obama would be “tested” overseas after becoming president, which highlighted the nominee’s inexperience.

That testing didn’t happen, but something else did: Obama and Biden became exceptionally close, arguably the closest of any president and vice president in American history. How that happened tells us something important this campaign season.

With Biden, familiarity breeds not contempt, but respect and even love. As his admiring old Senate colleagues and loyal staff attest, the longer you know him, the better he looks.


The rest is for members only, but I thought this clip was worth calling attention to for those of us who have learned to cherish the man.




RAW STORY'S TAKE: Biden's resurrection was unprecedented - and well-timed

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/bidens-resurrection-was-unprecedented-and-well-timed/


Most of the article below. It says what history will remember about this amazing turnabout. On to March 10th and the grand slam.

His resurrection was swift, almost unbelievable and simply unprecedented in the modern history of Democratic presidential primaries.

The dominant question going into Super Tuesday was: Did Joe Biden’s sweeping victory in South Carolina come just in time, or was it too late?

The answer is now clear. Biden all-but-swept Super Tuesday states, propelled by a tsunami of late-deciding voters.

A week ago, prognosticators speculated that Bernie Sanders could emerge from Super Tuesday’s contests with an insurmountable delegate lead of more than 300 delegates. After that, since Democrats allocate delegates proportionally, they said even if a Sanders challenger won a state 55% to 45%, Sanders’ delegate lead would narrow only marginally.
Instead, Biden’s powerful showing on Super Tuesday saw him easily break the “threshold” level – the 15% of votes cast required to collect delegates – virtually everywhere. He carried Elizabeth Warren’s home state of Massachusetts, outperformed projections in Sanders’ own Vermont and won Minnesota against all expectations. Biden prevailed in the southern states, including the mega-prize of Texas.

While Sanders will come in first in California, Biden will have a massive haul of delegates, especially as mail-in ballots trickle in post-Super Tuesday.

In fact, at this point, it’s Biden, not Sanders, who leads in delegates.

Michael Bloomberg has dropped out and endorsed Biden. His money is limitless, but his rationale for getting in – preventing a Sanders nomination as Biden faltered – collapsed.

Bloomberg will now become Biden’s wing-man, potentially committing his vast resources and deep organization to the Biden cause.

Warren, after her poor showing and her humiliating loss in Massachusetts, is “reassessing.” Her only rationale for continuing – that she can bring the Sanders and the non-Sanders coalitions together – hardly seems plausible. It would mean the Democratic Party nominating someone who consistently finishes third or worse in most primaries.

As ballots were cast on Super Tuesday, Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com estimated that Joe Biden would enter the convention with over 1,700 delegates, while Bernie Sanders would claim over 1,300.

To win outright, a candidate needs 1,991 delegates. The Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar delegates seem mostly destined to move to Biden. Hundreds of superdelegates are also available to vote for the former vice president on a second ballot if the convention needs it. All that makes Biden now the prohibitive favorite to be the nominee. His resurrection was swift, almost unbelievable and simply unprecedented in the modern history of Democratic presidential primaries.

The Biden revival is also beginning to look like a Democratic tour de force

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biden-goes-from-rags-to-riches-181325203.html

Biden goes from rags to riches
Rick Newman, Senior Columnist, Yahoo FinanceMarch 5, 2020

snips//

Biden’s presidential bid was moribund and broke heading into the Feb. 29 primary in South Carolina, with poor showings in all three prior elections. Then Biden broke through with a thunderclap win that drove competitors from the race and led to a pile of Super Tuesday victories on March 3. Biden has overtaken Bernie Sanders to become the Democratic frontrunner and assuage fears of a failed socialist revolution. Biden’s revival has been so dramatic critics would call it treacly and unrealistic if this were a Hollywood film.

***

The Biden revival is also beginning to look like a Democratic tour de force. Just two months ago, the Democratic primaries seemed a shambolic mess, with too many candidates bickering over ancient grievances and trivial policy differences in almost unwatchable debates. The entrance of the multibillionaire Bloomberg into the race triggered Sanders’ and Elizabeth Warren’s class warfare impulses, leading to more interparty attacks rather than a unified assault on Trump.

Now, the once-disorderly Democrats are becoming remarkably unified, avoiding the multi-lane free-for-all that allowed Trump to win the 2016 Republican nomination. Moderates have quickly closed ranks around Biden, who may now be the best-funded candidate in history, if Bloomberg does his bidding. It’s still a two-man race, with Sanders likely to remain competitive. But Sanders’ main advantage has been a handful of moderates splitting that part of the vote, while he gets most of the liberal tally. That advantage has evaporated. Moderates still outnumber liberals in the Democratic primaries, and with all of their vote going to Biden, Sanders is in trouble.


It goes on to say that Biden is not witout flaws but Sanders is even more flawed.

The Biden movement is in full force. Come on board Liz, Harris and Booker!

WARREN DECISION: ideologicaly, Bernie; pragmatically, Joe.

If Warren endorses Joe, she will add the left progressive wing to the moderate-progressive wing of the Biden movement. TYhis will urge the goals of the further left withh the incremental strategy of the more moderates and in keeping with her revised stance from her earlier Bernie-like stance.

We need her voice in the Biden moment!

POLITICO: 'I've never seen anybody mount a comeback like this -- ever'

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/04/biden-sanders-super-tuesday-120685

It truly was an historic night after a blazing Tuesday debate to Super Tuesday week. Breathtaking, awe-inspiring, unbelievable. I am still stunned. Here is some of the article.

With his unlikely romp across the Super Tuesday map, Joe Biden reshaped the 2020 Democratic primary — and got the two-person race against Bernie Sanders that seemed like a pipe dream a few days ago.

“I’ve never seen anybody mount a comeback like this — ever,” Matt Seyfang, an expert delegate counter who had worked for Pete Buttigieg, said of Biden’s unexpected rout.

***

But in terms of the expectations game, it was undeniably Biden's night, as he won at least nine of 14 states — including a shocker of a win in Texas and in Warren’s Massachusetts, where he never held a campaign event or opened a field office.

Also, Biden and Sanders expected he would trail in delegates by the end of Super Tuesday, but Biden ended the night projected to be ahead.

The scale of his win was big geographically — running from the Chesapeake Bay in Virginia to the West Texas plains — as well as demographically. Biden won black voters by huge margins, but also got more support from women than the only woman in the race. He scored in the suburbs and rural areas of the South and West. His major weaknesses were with young people and Latinos, with whom Sanders mopped up in California, Colorado and parts of Texas.

The sudden momentum driving Biden’s wave across the 14 states came after his decisive win in South Carolina, demonstrating he was the only moderate in a still-crowded field who appealed to African American voters. That led to quick exits by Pete Buttigieg then Amy Klobuchar, who along with Beto O’Rourke starred at a raucous, televised rally in Dallas.



With no ad budget to speak of and a shoestring organization, Biden put on a three-day exhibition of how to leverage pure momentum into a massive victory. He also showed that his abysmal showings in predominantly white Iowa and New Hampshire didn't matter that much, after all.

“In Democratic presidential primaries, some candidates underestimate the importance of African-American and older voters,” said Steve Ayscue, a Democratic strategist. “Conventional political wisdom isn’t always right. But this has been pretty consistent.”

***

The Super Tuesday states fell like dominoes to Biden: Alabama, Arkansas, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Virginia and even Massachusetts.

The Bay State was the biggest shocker, given that it's home to Warren and neighbor to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. That is, until Biden landed Texas.

For a candidate once considered toast, Biden defied expectations, beat better-funded rivals and made a statement win Tuesday that’s expected to slingshot him into the next round of states with electorates that match Biden’s voter profile. They could help him build a lead over Sanders as the presidential primary narrows to a de facto, two-man race.




TPM has a summary of all of Biden's Sunday morning appearances, with videos.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/biden-south-carolina-primary-win-sunday-tv-appearances

Biden Goes After Sanders During His Sunday Morning South Carolina Victory Lap


By Summer Concepcion March 1, 2020 5:27 p.m.

Former Vice President Joe Biden appeared rejuvenated and ready for Super Tuesday the day after his major win in the South Carolina primary Saturday evening.

Throughout his appearances on Sunday morning TV shows, Biden made it clear that his focus is to revive his campaign in the midst of Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) frontrunner status in the Democratic presidential primary thus far.

Unlike Biden, Sanders hesitated to say that he’s in a “two-man race” with the former VP during a Sunday morning interview on CBS’ “Face the Nation.”

Here’s how Biden spent his Sunday morning taking aim at Sanders:


Go to the link to have a good read. Biden is coming out swinging.


Politico: Biden's surprise ray of hope in California

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/01/joe-biden-california-primary-118371

Upside for Biden: A huge number of them haven't voted yet. The portion of returned ballots at this stage is much lower than in recent elections — and his campaign is counting on a late surge of support among those holdouts after his dominant performance on Saturday.

By CHRISTOPHER CADELAGO and DAVID SIDERS
03/01/2020 07:00 AM EST

SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Despite his weak polling in California, there’s a silver lining emerging for Joe Biden in the biggest delegate prize on the board next week.

Biden’s weakness after a distant second finish in Nevada could have compelled Californians who have been voting since the Iowa caucuses to support a moderate alternative who was doing better at the time. But there's a big upside for Biden: A huge number of them haven't voted yet. The portion of returned ballots at this stage is much lower than in recent elections — and his campaign is counting on a late surge of support among those holdouts after his dominant performance on Saturday.

Paul Mitchell, an elections expert who has tracked the number of returned vote-by-mail California ballots through Friday, told POLITICO he’s seen a significant drop-off among Democratic voters to date from the last two California presidential primaries. And the decline in returned ballots so far is occurring among the most dedicated voters: Those who have participated in the last five elections.

“People in Super Tuesday states and California, in particular, are not returning their ballots yet,” Danielle Cendejas, a Democratic strategist in California whose firm did campaign mail for both of Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns. “They’re waiting for a signal, and I think this is a signal. If you were debating between which of the Democrats who aren’t Bernie Sanders or even Elizabeth Warren to throw your hat behind, you’re probably going Joe Biden’s way.”

Steyer at around 12%. Imagine if those votes had gone for Joe!

Not complaining though. With about 30% of the votes counted, Joe is above 50%. Even if it drops a bit (and it may not), the pollsters did not call the scope of his victory. Second in Nevada set the stage. A stong debate, Clyburn
s powerful endorsement, and a grand CNN Town Hall turned it all around. Biden was in his stride and will leap forward from the Leap year surge-- or rather Tsunami!!

I am taking time to thank God for SC and America. Joe will beat Trump like a drum.


The Biden Burn and the Biden Bullet to the WH. Thanks for those words.
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