September 19, 2019

Corn Pop & Pop Corn: Post-Debate (3) Poll Analysis

Good analysis of where we stand on Presidential Pimary polls since the third debate on VOX:

[link:https://www.vox.com/2019/9/18/20872216/warren-biden-yang-democratic-presidential-polls|

Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren are the top two candidates in the presidential race, according to most polls taken since last week’s debate.

Of the five national polls taken since then, all show the former vice president continuing to lead, and four show Warren in second place — and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in third. (The fifth poll shows Sanders in second and Warren in third).

A poll from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal shows Warren 11 points ahead of Sanders, but polls from HarrisX, SurveyUSA, and YouGov show her leading him by 1 to 4 points, and a Morning Consult poll shows her trailing Sanders by 2. On average, that’s a 3.2 percent margin for Warren over Sanders. That’s bigger than before, but it’s not clear whether it will hold up (or expand) in the coming weeks.

As for the other candidates, the worst news is for California Sen. Kamala Harris. Every new national poll shows her clearly falling behind the top three candidates. In fact, she’s barely ahead of South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg in two polls, tied with him in a third, and trails him in the other two.

And beyond the top five, Andrew Yang, Beto O’Rourke, and Cory Booker all have about 3 percent support each in national polls since the debate — a slight improvement for all three but not enough to bump any of them up to the top tier of candidates.

The big picture is that the debate may have solidified the shape of the field — with Biden in first and Warren and Sanders probably in that order behind him.

But one big question going forward is whether Warren will manage to put some distance between herself and Sanders, emerging as the clear second-place candidate rather than essentially tied with Sanders (as polling averages currently show).

RCP is still showing the average with one pre-debate poll. If we drop that poll and only have the six post-debate polls (updated to include Florida Atlantic University) plus one HarrisX poll from 538, we get the following:

(I left out the lower tier candidates; the polling there is also interesting, but I am focusing on the upper and mid-tier candidates.

Post-debate (3) Polling Data [Hope I got it all correct--done on the run]

Average: JB 31, EW 20, BS 16, Harris 6, Buttigieg 6 (Biden +11)
HarrisX (LV) 9/15-9/18: JB 34, EW 18, BS 14, Harris 5, Buttigieg 5 (Biden +16)
FOX (LV) 9/15-9/17: JB 29, EW 16, BS 18, Harris 7, Buttigieg 5 (Biden +13)
Economist 9/14-9/17: JB 26, EW 21, BS 14, Harris 6, Buttigieg 9 (Biden +5)
SUSA 9/13-9/16: JB 33, EW 19, BS 17, Harris 6, Buttigieg 5 (Biden +14)
FLAtlanticU 9/12-9/15: JB 34, EW 24, BS 14, Harris 4, Buttigieg 5 (Biden +10)
NBC/WSJ 9/13-9/16: JB 31, EW 25, BS 14, Harris 5, Buttigieg 7 (Biden +6)
Morn-Cons 9/13-9/15: JB 32, EW 18, BS 20, Harris 6, Buttigieg 5 (Biden +12)

This clearly shows Biden well ahead despite the Corn Pop, and Warren not so much closing the gap as the Pop Corn show of the media hype. In fact, Sanders cannot be ruled out here as Sanders and Warren are playing leapfrog for second place. More power to her, though. While I am a Biden supporter, I respect Warren and her supporters. She is strong, smart, and knowledgeable and would make a great President. I worry though about her electability.

As for Biden, his durability belies the narrative that his lead is fragile. It is, in fact, solid.

I like statistics. Though not an expert, I worked with Morris Dees years back when he was first beginning the Southern Poverty Law Center. I did over a hundred attachments to a federal court redistricting suit for the state legislature demonstrating racial bias in the gerrymandered Alabama legislative districts ([E.D.] Nixpn vs Brewer). We won the case and 15 Blacks were elected in the redrawn legislative districts. The first time Blacks were elected to the legislature since Reconstruction after the civil war. I also presented a paper written with Amrit Lal, Black Power Alabama, to the McGovern Committee on Party Reform in Meridian, Mississippi (Birch Bayh chairing). Almost got fired when the governor saw my testimony on TV. Eventually had to resign when thrown in jail by a Montgomery policeman who later became a body guard for Wallace during his jpresidential campaign. More on my involvement here:

[link:https://www.crmvet.org/vet/schutz.htm|

We went all the way with McGovern which is one of the reasons I am a moderated-left Obama-Biden Dem.

September 15, 2019

Bloomberg: Joe Biden took a victory lap Friday

Another opinion piece that points out Joe's strong performance.

[link:https://news.yahoo.com/biden-rivals-learn-attacks-only-211324509.html|

Biden’s Rivals Learn That Attacks Only Made Him Stronger

The Democratic presidential front-runner boasted about his performance in the third Democratic debate during a fundraiser in Houston, telling guests that most of the other candidates on stage highlighted their policy differences with him rather than attacking him directly.

“Fewer and fewer criticize me,” Biden said Friday to laughter from donors at a sprawling apartment in the affluent River Oaks area.

Most of the candidates who have directly criticized Biden on the debate stage or campaign trail haven’t benefited from doing so. Julian Castro’s confrontation with Biden on Thursday was largely panned after he seemed to question the 76-year-old former vice president’s mental acuity in one of the sharpest clashes of the night. Candidates including Cory Booker and Kamala Harris who had singled out Biden at previous debates largely held their fire.

“I think Secretary Castro, who likes to talk about learning from history, clearly didn’t learn from the first two debates that taking personal cheap shots at Vice President Biden actually doesn’t work out that well for the candidate who throws that shot and particularly because it was factually inaccurate,” said Anita Dunn, Biden’s top communications adviser.

“What I saw last night is fewer and fewer personal attacks that were, you know, it was about what are you going to do in the future,” Biden later told reporters as he returned to the campus of Texas Southern University to tour its student center.

Other campaigns are seeing peril in attacking Biden without a clear game plan.

“The voters are smarter than candidates sometimes give them credit for. And if a cheap shot is a cheap shot, they see that,” said Lis Smith, a top aide to Pete Buttigieg. “If a sucker punch is a sucker punch, they see that. And if you think that having your consultants create a made-for-TV moment is going to make you president, you’re wrong and people can see right through it.”

Having witnessed Biden survive attacks and his own self-inflicted wounds since he entered the race nearly five months ago, other campaigns and their allies are still hoping he will falter and that their candidates will be able to capitalize.

“It’s always going to be difficult to take down someone like Biden when there’s 10 people in the field,” said Arizona Congressman Ruben Gallego, who endorsed Harris before Thursday’s debate.

“I do think when voters get to focus on four or five candidates they’re going to be able to do more of a comparison,” Gallego said. “Biden, to his credit, is a very well-respected vice president with a very popular president. I think candidates like Kamala are going to be able to overcome the natural incumbency that Biden has, but it’s not going to be done overnight.”

In particular, candidates have tried to highlight weaknesses in Biden’s long political record, arguing he is out of step with the current Democratic electorate, which has become more diverse and left-leaning in recent years. But Biden said Friday that he didn’t mind when the moderators dug into his record from his earliest years in politics, taking a gentle jab at Elizabeth Warren, who was a Republican until the 2000s.

“This is about the future, this is not about the past,” he said. “I love it when people say, ‘in 1972 you said.’ Well, in 1972, half the people on the stage were Republican for God’s sakes. You all think I’m kidding!”

Biden also took veiled shots at Warren’s long list of policy proposals, which she has been praised for and turned into a campaign slogan.

“We need more than plans. We need a president – we need someone who can execute plans,” he said. “And that’s what I hope this debate gets down to ultimately: What is it not that you want to do but what do you think you can do.”

Heading out of the debate, Biden is also in some ways campaigning on a different track than the rest of the field. While others will spend the weekend in Washington for a Congressional Black Caucus meeting — where he will be represented by his wife, Jill — he’ll be the featured speaker at a Sunday ceremony commemorating the 56th anniversary of the bombing that killed four girls at the 16th Street Baptist Church in Birmingham, Alabama.

The Birmingham appearance is yet another moment of “elevating him” and reminding voters that he is “able to do something that Donald Trump can’t,” senior adviser Symone Sanders said. “Regularly, we talk about Donald Trump never really rising to meet the moment when the country is faced with something and this will just be another contrast to that.”

September 15, 2019

Doug Schoen, of Fox News, has this take of Biden's performance in the Debate.

What he says matches what I felt about Joe's performance and how many eople will see it. It's Fox News, but Douglas E. Schoen has more than 30 years experience as a pollster and political consultant. He also has a new book is "Putin's Master Plan" and has been critical of Trump.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/doug-schoen-democratic-debate-detroit-joe-biden-kamala-harris-gabbard-inslee

I am only posting what he said about Joe. I don't believe his opinion that Sanders and Warren were losers, but as far as the health care debate goes, W4A might have be seen as the loser.

Former Vice President Joe Biden dominated the debate stage and weathered the attacks of nine opponents for the Democratic presidential nomination Wednesday night, emerging the clear winner and standing by his promise to not be “overly polite.”
In possibly the most contentious Democratic primary debate thus far, frontrunners Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris of California sparred with each other and the other candidates over the issues of health care, immigration, race relations and climate change.
Following Harris’ and Biden’s heated exchange over busing to achieve school integration in the first debate, Biden was far more aggressive than in his previous debate performance in responding to attacks from every candidate on stage.
The former vice president delivered his message compellingly and convincingly. Even during his less strong moments, Biden remained the focal point of the conversation, speaking for over 21 minutes – more than any other candidate on stage.
On health care, in particular, Biden displaying his in-depth policy knowledge while also rebutting repeated attacks from Harris. Biden gave a strong defense of his pragmatic plan to strengthen ObamaCare, while the confusion and lack of clarity around Harris’ plan hindered her position.
Biden also successfully took aim at what he has called Harris’ “have it every which way approach.”
Health care “is the single most important issue facing the public,” Biden said to Harris. “To be very blunt ... you can't beat President Trump with doubletalk on this plan.”

However, I disagree with him on the seismic shift away from the centrist position. I think Joe is right on mark.

Despite Biden’s strong performance and solid frontrunner status, it is clear that the party has seismically shifted away from the centrist Democratic Party of the 1990’s, making his path to the nomination far from certain.
Moreover, despite Biden’s strong performance and solid frontrunner status, it is clear that the party has seismically shifted away from the centrist Democratic Party of the 1990’s, making his path to the nomination far from certain.
Though Biden controlled this debate in many ways, his two leading opponents were absent from the stage of the CNN debate in Detroit. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, both competing for the support of the far left, debated Tuesday night.
***
Under attack for being too moderate, Biden delivered a powerful response when asked how he can appeal to progressives in the Democratic Party. He drew on his past success in winning elections and scoring major achievements in governing during his long career and emphasized his clear appeal to Midwest and working-class voters.
“I was asked to manage an $87 billion plan that would be spent in a total of 18 months that revived this state and many others … and it kept us out of a depression,” Biden said, referring to his work as vice president to help the auto industry and the country as a whole climb out of the Great Recession shortly after he took office with former President Barack Obama.

Biden said he led the economic recovery effort with just a fraction of 1 percent waste or fraud, “and our administration pushed bailing General Motors out saving tens of thousands of jobs here in this state.”
Ultimately, the strength of Biden’s performance made it clear that he is prepared to combine the policy knowledge and experience necessary to take on President Trump and potentially win in November 2020. He clearly remains the candidate who will be tough to beat for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Other aspects of his presentation might be criticized, but on the health issue I think he knocked it out of the park.

September 10, 2019

I am donating $18 to Joe, who is a Mensch.

I received this "I Know Joe" testimonial by campaign email (it has been posted on DU) who appeared unannounced at a shiva minyan -- a worship service. The "I know Joe" witness, Rabbi Michael Beal, noted the following: "Now, the number 18 is significant in the Jewish faith -- its numbers spell out the Hebrew word chai, as in “to life, to life, l’chayim!” But it’s also a humble amount. Joe Biden knew that. And he respected that."

I am not Jewish, but I am like Mrs. Greenwood not a person of mean.I l live on less tha a thousand bucks a month social security and hafe pledged only a recurring contribution of $5 a month. But I am matching Mrs. Greenwood in this case. I encourage others to donate this amount.

JOE WILL KNOW WHAT IT MEANS. The soul of the nation is the life of the nation. Go Joe!

September 4, 2019

The "I Know Joe" Testimonials #1

I hope these testimonials keep on coming. They are at the heart of Joe's campaign. He is the real deal. WYSIWYG. And what uyou get is enshrined in testimonials like the following.

Captain Kevin Penn, USMC (Ret.)

My name is Kevin.

For 20 years and 8 days, I served in the U.S. Marine Corps—as a helicopter mechanic, as a drill instructor, and as an intelligence officer, deploying three times—to the Persian Gulf, Iraq, and Kuwait.

Since my retirement from the Corps, my most important title is "volunteer." Today, I spend most of my time with the Tragedy Assistance Program for Survivors (TAPS), working with children and other Gold Star family members grieving the loss of a loved one who served and died, regardless of the timing or circumstances.

Over the course of my career, I've had the opportunity to meet a handful of leaders with true character. Joe Biden is one of them. I want to tell you why.

The first time I met Joe Biden was at a TAPS event, with the children of deceased service members. It was a closed-media event—no news outlets of any kind, just the mentors and the kids they worked with. Suddenly, the back door opens, and in walks then-Vice President Joe Biden. He didn't come in with fanfare, he didn't get up onstage or stand behind a podium.

He made it very clear to us: "I'm here for the kids." And he proceeded to speak with, take photos with, and shake the hands of every kid in that room. They were over the moon. I had never seen anything like it. And by the way, this was several years before Joe lost his own son, Major Beau Biden.

The second time I met Joe Biden was in April of 2010, on the South Lawn of the White House. I was part of a group of active-duty service members sending off our wounded brothers and sisters for the White House to Lighthouse Challenge — a 60-mile, three-day ride that starts on the South Lawn of the White House and ends in Annapolis, Maryland.

Then-Vice President Biden delivered remarks, joined all of us to see the warriors off, and then walked straight into the crowd of servicemembers—shaking hands, taking photos, listening to people's stories.

And here's the part I haven't forgotten:

Joe was definitely running late for some meeting or another, because his staff was getting increasingly persistent—"Sir, we really need to go." Not in a way that was disrespectful. It was just clear that they needed to be on their way.

Finally, Joe turned to his aides and said:

"I'm going to stay here shaking hands until there's nobody left to shake hands with, and taking photos with these people until they get every photo they want."

That's exactly what he did. And I promise you that the service men and women who were on the South Lawn that day haven't forgotten it, either.

Character is about what you do when the cameras aren't rolling.

Joe Biden is a man of character.

And in the age of Twitter and perfect sound bites—people who are most interested in themselves, shaping their own image—Joe Biden is a man who, after more than 40 years of public service, still wants to give. I honestly get chills when I think about his empathy for and dedication to everyone but himself.

At a time when everything feels disingenuous and hand-crafted for a certain audience, Joe Biden is genuine.

Now more than ever, we need to have leaders we truly believe in. I truly believe in Joe Biden.

September 2, 2019

Joe's Labor Day Message via email to supporters without a donation pitch

Today, I'm asking you to do one thing, and it has nothing to do with donating money to this campaign.

When you cross paths with someone working a job that makes your day-to-day life better—and I promise you, it will happen many times today—tell them "thank you."

Tell them you appreciate the work that they do. That it matters to you, and to your community.

That's it.

Say thank you to the people who build our roads and bridges. Keep our water systems working. Teach our kids and take care of the sick among us. Race into our burning buildings. Grow our food, build our cars, and pick up the garbage off our streets.

Say thank you—because these are the people who make America run. Not the Wall Street bankers, not the CEOs or hedge fund managers. Ordinary people doing extraordinary things.

Today, you'll notice that a lot of politicians are afraid to say the word "union."

It's one of the ugliest things about politics: The tendency to take a concept we all ought to be able to agree on, and contort it into something unrecognizable and divisive. Something false.

Here's the truth: Unions built the American middle class. With the dues they paid, the picket lines they walked, and the negotiations they sweated through, fighting for rights that benefit every American worker.

Minimum wage. Overtime pay. The 40-hour workweek. Being able to take weekends off. Non-union workers only have these rights because of the sacrifices made by organized labor.

I promise you if I’m elected president, together, we’ll protect and strengthen the right to organize and collectively bargain.

And, to workers: I’ll never forget the battles you’ve waged and victories you’ve won, and I’ll never forget to stand with you and with labor unions every day.

-Joe