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UncleNoel

Profile Information

Member since: Mon Jul 11, 2005, 11:05 AM
Number of posts: 858

About Me

White, male, expatriate living in the mountains of central Taiwan, Oregon permanent address, 34 years of age. Born in St. Louis. Army brat lived all over. Veteran of the Korean War (sieved in Libya and Austin, Texas). Ph.D. in anthropology and linguistics, Indiana University. Career in linguistics and ESL at numerous US and foreign institutions. Spent most of my career as a director of English as a Second Language programs. Taught at National Chi Nan Unversity, Puli, Taiwan over the years 1995-2016. Retired as an orchard keeper with my life partner Judy Wu of the Bunun Austronesian tribe in our mountain hideaway cabin, High Mountain Orchards.

Journal Archives

MSNBC highlights the disconnect between the National polls fand the early states' polls

MSNBC's Steve Kornacki breaks down the numbers, highlighting the major differences between the national polls and the polling in early states.
11th Hour
Kornacki: We haven't seen this kind of disconnect in polls in decades."

This was aired Nov. 21st, but in the poll hiatus after the pre-debate polls and the upcoming swatch of post-debate polls, it is still relevant.

https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/kornaki-we-haven-t-seen-this-kind-of-disconnect-in-polls-in-decades-73788485796
Here are the poll screenshots for those who don't wish to go to the link.







It is of interest that Biden is 2nd in Iowa and NH and first elsewhere. Further, in Iowwa the two moderates are on top and the left candidates are on the bottom. Try combining Pete and Joe one one hand and Warren and Sanders on the other.

RCP POLL AVERAGES: Biden 29.8, Sanders 19.3, Warren 18.5 [Biden +10.5]. Also Wikipedia's Aggregate

Biden close to breaking into the 30+ lane again. Sanders nudging Warren out of the 20-25 lane and Warren swerving over into the 15-20 lane.

Based on the polls just before the November debate. Now let's see how it plays out.



Wikipedia includes earlier data in its aggregate of averages for a bit of a different picture.

UncleNoel's November Pre-Debate Polls Roundup: Biden 29.3, Sanders 20.3, Warren 18.6 [Biden +9]

Time to windup the pre-debate polls for November and get ready for the next batch of post-debate polls. The data show Bidenwell ahead, Sanders moving back into second place, but Warren not in free fall. Data from 538, RCP, and Wikipedia's aggregate totals.
They are all surely bouncing around, but while generally Biden is in his plus 25 lane, but Warren and Sanders are swerving back andbforth between he 20-25 land and the 15-20 lane.


POLITICUSUSA'S WINNERS AND LOSSERS - a bit of a different take than what I am reading in the thread

Posted on Wed, Nov 20th, 2019 by Jason Easley
https://www.politicususa.com/2019/11/20/winners-losers-democratic-debate-2.html

Here Are The Winners And Losers From The MSNBC Democratic Debate

Ten Democrats debated in Georgia on MSNBC, and here are the candidates who shined and some who stumbled at the debate.
Winners and Losers

Winners:
1). Amy Klobuchar Ė Klobuchar has continued to get better and better with each debate. She makes an interesting argument about being able to win in the Midwest. Klobuchar is poised to show a bit better in Iowa than in the national polls. She has become an interesting candidate in the center lane, who is showing well in the debates, but she will need a boost in Iowa to have a shot at the nomination.
2). Kamala Harris- Sen. Harris stopped going for the big homerun debate moments. She instead played into her strengths on criminal justice reform, her work as a prosecutor, and she really shined when she took on Tulsi Gabbard for her right-wing ties.
3). Pete Buttigieg Ė Mayor Pete had a really good night. Buttigieg took on Donald Trump for stealing from vets. He made strong policy points, and overall looked much more comfortable outside of the chaos that was the jammed 12 candidate event at the previous debate. The momentum in Iowa looks real for Buttigieg, but he canít get any support from minority voters. Unless Buttigieg wants to be an Iowa wonder, he needs to expand his base of support to reach the majority of Democratic primary voters.
4). Elizabeth Warren Ė Sen. Warren got lots of time to talk and did nothing to hurt her standing with her supporters. If anything Warren might have become more appealing to the left lane of the Democratic primary. Warren leaves this debate in the same strong position that she came in with.
5).Joe Biden- Former vice president Biden reaffirmed his brand. He was strong on foreign policy. His moderate healthcare position of expanding Obamacare and his message that he is the person who can get things done and get more Democrats elected to the House and Senate is going to appeal to those voters who are focused on winning. Biden had what have become his usual Biden verbal stumbles, but they havenít cost him with his supporters before, and they probably wonít now. The Democratic frontrunners stayed out of each otherís way, which means that like Warren, it was a good night for Biden.
6). Bernie Sanders Ė Sen. Sanders is another frontrunner who saw no harm come to his standing in the field. Sen. Sanders still has the same problem. He is getting squeezed from Warren on the left, and Biden in the middle. Sen. Sanders has stopped relying on the same talking points as the 2016 election and looked healthier than he has in years. Sanders probably didnít catch up to Warren and Biden, but he is still in the top three.
Losers:
1). Tulsi Gabbard Ė Gabbard got her head handed to her by Kamala Harris, and when a candidateís biggest moment of the debate is a bad one, it was not a good night. The common theme with all of the candidates on this half of the list is that they are low in the polls and didnít get a breakthrough moment.
2).<="" strong=""> Yang is popular on the campaign trail, but his most memorable moment was with Tom Steyer. Yang didnít get much airtime, and his quirky candidacy isnít moving him up in the polls or getting much-staying power in the primary. He did have a good moment when he talked about designating white supremacists as domestic terrorists. Yang could have a real future in politics, but this race isnít it.
3). Cory Booker- Sen. Booker is a candidate that just canít catch fire. Booker is a very good candidate, but he canít seem to get any traction. It continues to feel like Sen. Booker missed his window and should have run in 2016.
4).Tom Steyer Ė Tom Steyer is defined as a candidate. Steyer is another interesting candidate, but it is unclear what he stands for. Steyer talked about term limits and allowing the American people to directly vote on laws, but one wonders that after the election of Trump if America has the stomach for a wealthy inexperienced candidate assuming the presidency.
Overall, this was one of the best and easiest to watch Democratic debates. The chaos was gone and the candidates got to talk. There was very little conflict among the candidates, and the first-ever all-female moderation panel was fantastic. The questions were good. They kept the debate moving, and it would be great to see Maddow, Mitchell, Welker, and Parker do many more debates in the future.

Lynn Rosenthal Former White House Advisor on Violence Against Women: I know Joe!

I want to share this email from the Biden Campaign. " This is a series of stories from the Americans who know Joe Biden -- from his family, to his closest friends and colleagues, to the everyday Americans whose lives he's touched. These are their words."


Lynn Rosenthal:

Ten years ago, Joe Biden appointed me as the first ever White House Advisor on Violence Against Women.

This sent an important signal. But a signal alone would not bring about meaningful change. Change requires personal engagement, willingness to learn, and a real sense of urgency to get something done.

Over the course of 5 years, I would have the opportunity to witness countless moments where Joe Biden demonstrated compassion and determination in pursuit of meaningful change for survivors of domestic violence.

I want to share one of those stories with you.

Late one evening, I was in my office in the Executive Office Building, getting ready to leave for the night when the Vice President called over from the West Wing. Heíd been trying to reach the mother of a victim whose story heíd followed closely. He wanted simply to check inĖĖto see how she was doing on what was certain to be an incredibly difficult day for their family, a year after her daughter was killed.

ďLynn, Iíve been calling and calling, and I still havenít been able to get a hold of her. Iím just going to keep trying until I can get her on the phone.Ē Thatís exactly what he did. And he didnít give up until he got through.

An agent of meaningful change. Thatís who Joe Biden is. His compassion for those affected by domestic and sexual violence was constant.

The law enforcement officer who had spent his career helping children and whoĖĖwhile dying of cancerĖĖneeded to talk about his own story as a child victim. The woman whose sister was murdered by her husband during a child custody exchange. Rape victims whose forensic evidence kits sat on shelves in crime labs and law enforcement storage, untested. Countless survivors on rope lines and college campuses who poured out their stories, knowing he would understand. And the all-too-many parents he gathered every year at the Naval Observatory to remember the daughters they had lost and talk about how to end this violence for good.

Joe Biden never flinched from peopleís pain. He was never too busy, or in too much of a rush, to simply sit and listen.

From there, heíd go to Congress. To community leaders. To policymakers. Heíd get people to the table to work together, and get survivors the help and support they needed.

And it made a difference. From playing an instrumental role in the creation of the first National Domestic Violence Hotline, to strengthening Title IX, to protecting students from sexual discrimination and sexual violence, to launching a public campaign to help prevent campus sexual assault, Joe Biden made concrete changes in the lives of survivors and their families.

Joe Biden is not new to this work. He has done it with all his heart since authoring the Violence Against Women Act. And heís committed to further strengthening it to meet the needs of survivors and communities today, to prevent violence from happening in the first place.

I share these stories with you, because I know itís easy to get caught up in the day-to-day news cycle, or to find yourself caught up in a back-and-forth on social media with someone who has a different opinion than you do. Itís not easy to come by pure moments where a given leaderís character shines through, unobstructed by bias or partisan spin.

And thatís why itís on the people who know those leaders best to tell those stories.

I know Joe Biden.

He is a man of character. Of integrity. Of compassion. And I believe that he is the leader we need, at one of the most divided moments in our countryís history.

Letís elect a president with heart. Letís elect Joe Biden.

Thank you for listening.

-Lynn
Lynn Rosenthal
Former White House Advisor on Violence Against Women

UncleNoel's Pre-Debate November Tracking Poll to date: Biden 27, Warren 19, Sanders 18 [Biden +8]

PROBABLY WILL HAVE AN UPDATE JUST PRIOR TO THE DEBATE IF OTHER POLLS ARE POSTED.

Bfiden staying in his plus 25 lane. Warren slipping (below her 20-25 lane). Sanders keeping in his lane (15-20).




Including A, B, B/C, C+ (Crazytown won't like this. Lol!)

The Latest Early States Polls by YouGov and what they show in graphs and charts

As shown by 538


Biden is doingwell across the board, Sanders not so bad, Warren OK, but Buttigieg not really surging.


The Last two Iowa Polls ended the same day,but with very different results.


The YouGov NH Poll seems odd. If valid, Warren is SURGING. But IMHO it is really out of whack.


*UPDATE* Pre-Debate November Tracking Poll for Iowa: Buttigieg surging, other top tier congregating

Includes the latest Selzer & Co Poll.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/iowa/
Buttigieg definitely surging, Warren dropping to a virtual tie with Sanders and Biden


UncleNoel's Pre-Debate November Tracking Poll to date : Biden 26, Warren 18, Sanders 17 [Biden +8]

The all Adult Ipsos Poll twice had Warren at 11% which seems odd to me. I am wondering whether or not to post GP (all Adult) polls and rely only on RV and LV (registered and likely voters). However, some tracking cites include Ipsos.
LINKS:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#October_2019
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html



*UPDATED* Pre-Debate Iowa Tracking Poll: Buttigieg, Biden rising, Warren top, Sanders 4th

November Polls only.
Buttigieg gains lead, Biden rising to 2nd place, Warren slipping, Sanders fourth




LINKS:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html#polls
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#Iowa_caucus

Nebraska tracking poll comingup soon.
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